Prospect Info: 2019 Capitals Top Prospect #6

[tenken00]

2019 Capitals Prospects Rankings:

1) Ilya Samsonov G (40 votes 64.5%) Prospect Info: - 2019 Capitals Top Prospect #1

2) Alex Alexeyev LD (42 votes 91.3%) Prospect Info: - 2019 Capitals Top Prospect #2

3) Connor McMichael C (29 votes 48.3%) Prospect Info: - 2019 Capitals Top Prospect #3

4) Martin Fehervary LD (45 votes 91.8%) Prospect Info: - 2019 Capitals Top Prospect #4

5) Brett Leason RW (27 votes 55.1%) Prospect Info: - 2019 Capitals Top Prospect #5


With the 2019 draft and development camp done and finished, what do you think the Caps prospect rankings should be this year? Part of an ongoing series.

Admittedly, I'm not familiar with a lot of them, so it'll be interesting to read what you guys think.

I took this initial list from another site, so feel free to request an add of another prospect!

The requirement is U25, and less than 25 NHL games played.


Note: I'll start the next prospect ranking thread the next day if the polling isn't close. If two or more prospects are within 10 votes of each other, I'll leave that thread out for the additional day.

Click to read more...

 

[twabby]

Going with Johansen because I know nothing about most of the remaining prospects and am going just based on name recognition at this point.

 

[Bananas]

It’s disappointing that neither Sutter nor Clark seems to be making any noise. I was kinda hoping one of them would have jumped up the rankings by now.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Going with Johansen because I know nothing about most of the remaining prospects and am going just based on name recognition at this point.

This is THE problem. 99% of the upcoming votes for LuJo and VV will be of the same exact nature.

We have 5 to 10 prospects before them but people ignore it. In any case I hope the 'LD Bust' and the 'Mr. 0,900 Sv%' will have a good year.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Connor Hobbs
Axel Jonsson Fjällby
Martin Hugo Has
Beck Malenstyn
Damien Riat
Tyler Lewington
Alexei Protas
Riley Sutter
Brian Pinho
Garrett Pilon
Joe Snively

All better in my eyes than LuJo and VV.

 

[tenken00]

This is THE problem. 99% of the upcoming votes for LuJo and VV will be of the same exact nature.

We have 5 to 10 prospects before them but people ignore it. In any case I hope the 'LD Bust' and the 'Mr. 0,900 Sv%' will have a good year.

I admit, I don't know about your claim of the other 99% of HFCaps posters, but I am not sure myself about most of the rest of the kids.

So as someone who states that he does know, please give me your best sales pitch on why you think Connor Hobbs should be next.

 

[Silky mitts]

I admit, I don't know about your claim of the other 99% of HFCaps posters, but I am not sure myself about most of the rest of the kids.

So as someone who states that he does know, please give me your best sales pitch on why you think Connor Hobbs should be next.

My case for Hobbs is he was the best looking Caps prospect last preseason besides Alexeyev and Barber. The only guy you can vote for that had a point for the Caps last preseason (1 PPG in 2 games). Skating looked decent, looked confident with the puck.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

This is THE problem. 99% of the upcoming votes for LuJo and VV will be of the same exact nature.

We have 5 to 10 prospects before them but people ignore it. In any case I hope the 'LD Bust' and the 'Mr. 0,900 Sv%' will have a good year.

Or, people have seen what LuJo has to offer, and are banking that he can bounce back, given how he did in his 20 year old season as a top-4 D in the AHL.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I admit, I don't know about your claim of the other 99% of HFCaps posters, but I am not sure myself about most of the rest of the kids.

So as someone who states that he does know, please give me your best sales pitch on why you think Connor Hobbs should be next.

Thank you for your question!

I see (my point of view) Hobbs, AJF, Hugo Has and Malenstyn as potential 400 NHL GP bottom line players. All four are close in potential and have tools to succeed. You can choose any one of them as your number one. I did choose CH for his grit, his hard shot and his physical play.

 

[Charles Calvert]

Going with Vaneck. I think if it wasn't for Samsonov people would be a lot more excited. I put his likely ceiling as a goaltender like Grubrauer; great backup who can be a solid starting goalie if he isn't overworked, but needs a good backup to take up more games than usual.

Johansen would be #7 to me. He's still a decent prospect he just has been riddled with injuries and his development I think would have been slower anyway. I still don't know if he's a regular NHLer until age 22 or so. But I like his tools as a two-way defenseman with upside.

 

[Charles Calvert]

It’s disappointing that neither Sutter nor Clark seems to be making any noise. I was kinda hoping one of them would have jumped up the rankings by now.

Sutter is coming along fine, he just doesn't have an awesome ceiling. I think he could possibly be a good 3rd line guy.

Clark is weird though. He didn't light the world on fire with more responsibilities in the OHL (he only put up about 7 or 8 points more than the year before). But he did have a great playoffs and I think he's more a victim of where he was taken than who he is. I think Clark is probably an NHLer at some point, but he's not a guy who screams 2nd round guy to me. He could have easily been taken after Sutter in the 3rd and I think people would like him better. It's all about value some times.

It's just odd to me because Clark and Sutter are kind of similar guys. I think both have snarl but some scoring upside too.

 

[um]

This is THE problem. 99% of the upcoming votes for LuJo and VV will be of the same exact nature.

We have 5 to 10 prospects before them but people ignore it. In any case I hope the 'LD Bust' and the 'Mr. 0,900 Sv%' will have a good year.

I vote mostly based on potential, not just how they are right now. While a lot of guys may have passed Johansen as he's been having injury problems and what not, I'd still say he has more potential than most.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Hobbs should be no where near the top 10 anymore IMO. If the big knock on LuJo is that he hasn't "improved" since his draft year, people should be very disappointed in Hobbs. He's an "offensive" defenseman who gets very minimal powerplay time. He should be trying to mold his game around playing well in his own zone and playing physical because that's where he excels at currently.

 

[hb12xchamps]

This is THE problem. 99% of the upcoming votes for LuJo and VV will be of the same exact nature.

We have 5 to 10 prospects before them but people ignore it. In any case I hope the 'LD Bust' and the 'Mr. 0,900 Sv%' will have a good year.

Your NHL Hall of Famer in Samsonov was a .898 SV % in the regular season and a .897 SV % in the playoffs. That must mean Vanecek and his .907 SV% in the regular season and .935 SV% in the playoffs should be a first ballot HOFer with a Vezina Trophy every other year right?

This alone just proves that doing nothing but stat watching without any context has major flaws. I really encourage you to watch some Hershey games next year on AHL TV

 

[Charles Calvert]

Hobbs should be no where near the top 10 anymore IMO. If the big knock on LuJo is that he hasn't "improved" since his draft year, people should be very disappointed in Hobbs. He's an "offensive" defenseman who gets very minimal powerplay time. He should be trying to mold his game around playing well in his own zone and playing physical because that's where he excels at currently.

Hobbs' advantage is his handedness. The only true prospects who are righty are basically him, Has, and Kannok-Leipart. I believe every other serious prospect is a lefty. So it has more to do with where he plays rather than how good he is.

Hobbs isn't an exciting prospect to me, but I think he's a decent bottom pairing guy potentially. I truly believe if Johansen wasn't a lefty, tons of people would be higher on him.

 

[Langway]

There's Lewington. In the near-term, as long as he's around, he's still likely ahead of Hobbs.

 

[tenken00]

Sutter is coming along fine, he just doesn't have an awesome ceiling. I think he could possibly be a good 3rd line guy.

Clark is weird though. He didn't light the world on fire with more responsibilities in the OHL (he only put up about 7 or 8 points more than the year before). But he did have a great playoffs and I think he's more a victim of where he was taken than who he is. I think Clark is probably an NHLer at some point, but he's not a guy who screams 2nd round guy to me. He could have easily been taken after Sutter in the 3rd and I think people would like him better. It's all about value some times.

It's just odd to me because Clark and Sutter are kind of similar guys. I think both have snarl but some scoring upside too.

I don't remember. Was there a lot of pre-draft hype surrounding Clark last year? Was he rated to go in the 2nd?

 

[Hivemind]

It’s disappointing that neither Sutter nor Clark seems to be making any noise. I was kinda hoping one of them would have jumped up the rankings by now.

Clark had a pretty lackluster D+1 season (albeit with a strong playoffs), and isn't even guaranteed to get regular games in Hershey this year (although I would anticipate an overage year in the CHL more than an ECHL demotion). He's definitely not the same type of player as his father, but it's looking more and more like any NHL future he has is as a 4th line grinder.

Sutter showed better progression in his D+1 season, albeit an injury shortened one. If he hadn't been injured, there might have been a bit more noise. If he continues to progress, an NHL future looks realistic. But his upside is still somewhat limited, he's not likely to be a top 6 player. I still anticipate he'll be a top 10 prospect in the system. Possibly even #7 or 8.

 

[Charles Calvert]

I don't remember. Was there a lot of pre-draft hype surrounding Clark last year? Was he rated to go in the 2nd?

No, not particularly. It was a head-scratching pick even then as I recall. It wasn't a huge reach or anything, but he was a guy who probably could have been taken later. I think most people said they liked Sutter a lot more at 3 than Clark at 2.

 

[Silky mitts]

Or, people have seen what LuJo has to offer, and are banking that he can bounce back, given how he did in his 20 year old season as a top-4 D in the AHL.

Anecdotally after Lujo's 20 year old season they took defensemen with their top 2 picks, and a year later the Director of Player Development mentions those 2 guys and not Lujo.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Your NHL Hall of Famer in Samsonov was a .898 SV % in the regular season and a .897 SV % in the playoffs. That must mean Vanecek and his .907 SV% in the regular season and .935 SV% in the playoffs should be a first ballot HOFer with a Vezina Trophy every other year right?
This alone just proves that doing nothing but stat watching without any context has major flaws. I really encourage you to watch some Hershey games next year on AHL TV

If you do not know how to ride a bicycle expect to hit the ground hard, then you do it for the first time.

Let me show you in this post how stats 'work' and how to avoid TWO most common errors people do then they touch to the stats for the first time:

Error #1. Hospital patient average temperature.

In some hospital you have 20 patients. Ten of them had low body temperature of 35 C (95 F), the other ten had 38.2 C (100.8 F). The average temperature is 36.6 C (97.9 F) and so (error in the reasoning) everyone is healthy.

Let's look at the Samsonov and Vanecek stats. I did this research at the end of February (stats are NOT as for a full season):

G	GF before Christmas	GF after Christmas	GA before Christmas	GA after Christmas	SV% before Christmas	SV% after Christmas
Samsonov	2.43	2.36	4.07	1.42	0.858	0.939
Vanecek	2.14	3.40	2.71	2.70	0.906	0.902

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You see that Vanecek is a constant 0.900 Sv% goalie (Even more, he produces at this same exact mediocre level for THREE years in a row). The difference with Samsonov is that his 0,900 Sv% average (think here about the hospital example I gave you upwards) is a sum of two completely different states. The first 50% of the season he was disastrous (0.858 Sv%) due? to the time he took to adapt (new country, new language, new league, new everything, etc.). The second part of his season was stratospheric. He put Hershey to the playoff by his play (look at VV stats, nothing changed in his production; VV was a nonfactor in the Bears final rush). 0.939 Sv% is huge. At one-point Samsonov had a 950 Sv% ten game streak in his first year (a whole of the first 50 games). This is insane at the AHL level for a goalie. Only a Vezina caliber guy like Holtby can achieve this. Samsonov can.

Error #2. Too small sample size.

I came for two days to a new town and the weather was rainy. The firs and the second day I took my umbrella to go outside. So (error in the reasoning) it rains every-every day in this town.

Samsonov played 5 games in the playoffs ended up with a poor 0.897 Sv%. These stats (think of the town example) has a small value due to a too small sample size.

I hope I helped you with the stats this time and you will not say "This just proves" so fast the next time.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Anecdotally after Lujo's 20 year old season they took defensemen with their top 2 picks, and a year later the Director of Player Development mentions those 2 guys and not Lujo.

Smart

 

[hb12xchamps]

I hope I helped you with the stats this time and you will not say "This just proves" so fast the next time.

Yes I've seen your fancy posts with your charts of numbers. Yes Samsonov had a very, very good second half of the season after getting acclimated. Yes Samsonov is a very, very good prospect and the prospect I voted for first overall in this pole.

Again, you look at stats and make fancy charts and assumptions without any context. While Samsonov was sucking the first half of the year, Vanecek did elevate his play while the team in front of him was in shambles. The Bears were not good for various reasons to start the year last year and if you ask any Hershey fan or even Capitals fan that tuned in to Hershey games and you would know that Vanecek is the only reason they even had the opportunity to spew off a record setting winning streak. The Bears don't even sniff a playoff birth without his stability while Samsonov struggled. You can also just throw out his 2017-18 numbers. Even Copley's numbers were putrid that year and the Bears missed the playoffs due to bad overall team performance.

It's also pretty funny that you use the wording "too small of a sample size" yet you cherry pick the second half of Samsonov's 2018/19 season as how he will be over the course of his career. Samsonov played 5 games to Vanecek's 4 but Vanecek still had the better numbers overall between the two. You take Vitek out of that equation and Hershey doesn't advance past Bridgeport in the first round.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Anecdotally after Lujo's 20 year old season they took defensemen with their top 2 picks, and a year later the Director of Player Development mentions those 2 guys and not Lujo.

I think Langway mentioned that Richmond was specifically asked about players who attended Dev Camp and didn't go out of his way to praise those not brought up in questions. Other guys that attended Dev Camp like Malenstyn were also not brought up during that interview.

 

[Langway]

I think Langway mentioned that Richmond was specifically asked about players who attended Dev Camp and didn't go out of his way to praise those not brought up in questions. Other guys that attended Dev Camp like Malenstyn were also not brought up during that interview.

Right. When asked about who stood out that week he passed, presumably because it's about the long-term. He wasn't really asked to give an overview take on the D on whole or Johansen in particular. Maybe Mahoney touched more on that in his interviews. I can't recall. Certainly they took two LD after Johansen's first pro season but I would guess if asked they'd simply reply with what they've always said and that they were the best players available.

What is the stats-based argument in favor of a player like Pinho at 24 that only put up 12 points in his rookie AHL season?