Prospect Info: 2019-2020 Senators Prospects Watch

[Ouroboros]

Olle Alsing is at a PPG pace in the SHL so far this season - 1G, 6A in 7 games.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

There are many very good teams that didn't tank and many teams that tank permanently and keep being terrible.
Tanking for high picks has nothing to do with building a contender.
I'd argue it's a terrible way to build one. Instead of actually hiring competent management they get a pass on being bad and keep pissing away opportunities because "we need to tank anyway". That's what we've been doing with Dorion all these years.
Hire a good GM and things will turn.

Well said.

I'd also add, a strong organization overall. Having good scouts to find gems. Great coaching and development in the AHL to give kids every opportunity to reach their potential. And also a good aura...and by that, I mean some teams simply have that team culture and expectations and mystique to them. O6 teams are big for that...same with teams that always seem to find a way, like San Jose and now Vegas....having that feel that you re always moving forward, even when you rebuild.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Olle Alsing is at a PPG pace in the SHL so far this season - 1G, 6A in 7 games.

Noice.

Good skater. Hopefully we find somewhere for him in our ranks next year. He would have been a top 4 guy in Belleville this year imo.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Should have kept him up to protect the kids

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

Through 4 games to start the year, Mads Sogaard has allowed 7 goals and has a shutout for a 1.74 GAA and .940 SV%.

All of those figures are tops in the WHL among goalies who have played more than 2 games.

 

[Johnny Hanson]

UND is playing an exhibition game against U of Manitoba and so far JBD and Pinto both have goals

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Should have kept him up to protect the kids

Hmmm. reminds me of this

One of those guys looked like he killed his hand.

 

[Cosmix]

If we're getting Lafreniere or Byfield, I don't think it would take 2-3 more top picks to finally have a good team. First of all, we would not be able to pay them all, even if there was a new super rich owner. The salary cap isn't going away. There's no place in a team for that many superstars. Yes there's the salary cap, but there's also playing time, PP time, responsibility, leadership, etc.

What you need is a few elite/star players with the right supporting cast, great goaltending (not many teams make the playoffs with just "ok" goaltending) and an efficient coaching staff, as well as chemistry, healthiness, etc.

Unless you think that all of Chabot, Tkachuk, Brown, Batherson, Brannstrom, Norris, White, Wolanin, Duclair, Balcers, etc will just be "supporting cast", then yeah, you'd need a few more top picks.

If you get Lafreniere/Byfield (or even Raymond/Holtz), then you need just 8 top-9 forwards with 2-3 being above average top-6ers.

Tkachuk (20)
White (22)
Duclair (24)
Batherson (21)
Balcers (22)
Brown (21)
Norris (20)
Formenton (20)
Abramov/Davidsson/Pinto/Chlapik/Crookshank/Gruden/Kastelic (all under 22)

Chabot (22)
Brannstrom (20)
Wolanin (24)
Jaros (23)
Lajoie (21)
Thomson (19)
JBD (19)
Alsing (23)/Tychonick (19)/Guenette (18)

Sogaard/Gustavsson/Hogberg/Daccord/Mandolese (future in nets looks good, no need to draft a goalie at least for the next 2 drafts, unless easily BPA available)

And we won't just have a top pick in the next draft (not even 9 months away) to get Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond/Holtz, we also have the Sharks 1st and 3 more picks in the 2nd round... same thing in 2021 with 3 picks in the 2nd round. Sens already have a wealth of young players and could easily add 9 quality prospects (some will be picked high) in the next 20 months, and that's without talking about the gems they find in later rounds (Stone/Hoffman/Batherson/Dzingel/etc) or picks/prospects they'd get in trades.

In that list of young players, some are sort of proven already, some will have to. They all have a lot of room to grow as professionals. So unless they all bust really hard, the current organization system depth chart should allow a lot of progression in the next few years. If they can't become at least become a consistent playoff team by 2021-22 after adding a talent like Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond (and like in said 2 more firsts and 6 seconds within the next 20-21 months); might as well just relocate.

I think it will take more than 1 top draft pick to make this team into a playoff and SC contender. Not all of the current prospects will turn into NHL players nor play in the top 6. That is why I think we need several years of top 5 picks.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I think it will take more than 1 top draft pick to make this team into a playoff and SC contender. Not all of the current prospects will turn into NHL players nor play in the top 6. That is why I think we need several years of top 5 picks.

Yeah, we need a couple of high end offensive talents up front to complement Tkachuk, White and Chabot along with a few solid veterans who still have some legs to contribute on D and in the bottom 6 who can help the young ones. Also need one of our goaltending prospects to to step up and become "the guy" after Nilsson is gone. Sogaard so far looking real good. Hopefully he's the chosen one.

 

[Cosmix]

There are many very good teams that didn't tank and many teams that tank permanently and keep being terrible.
Tanking for high picks has nothing to do with building a contender.
I'd argue it's a terrible way to build one. Instead of actually hiring competent management they get a pass on being bad and keep pissing away opportunities because "we need to tank anyway". That's what we've been doing with Dorion all these years.
Hire a good GM and things will turn.

I agree that competent previously successful management is a requirement at this time. It is an important factor in building a team that can make the playoffs and be a contender to win the SC.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Sweatred]

I agree that competent previously successful management is a requirement at this time. It is an important factor in building a team that can make the playoffs and be a contender to win the SC.

7/10 last cup winners (CHI, PITT, WAS) won the cup on the backs of 1OA's or top pick combos. Before that CAR, TB, etc did too. It hard to find teams like STL or BOS that won without a top pick in their prime.

 

[Micklebot]

7/10 last cup winners (CHI, PITT, WAS) won the cup on the backs of 1OA's or top pick combos. Before that CAR, TB, etc did too. It hard to find teams like STL or BOS that won without a top pick in their prime.

Ducks in 07 come to mind, Bobby Ryan had yet to play a game for them.
Wings a year later

So, 13 years, that's 4 different teams. On the flip side, Chi, Pit, LA, eat up 8 of the remaining years with multiple wins a piece. That's only if you count a 2nd OA. LA had Doughty at 2nd, but that's not a 1st OA, and there was no top pick combo unless you're really loose on top pick to include 11th OA. LA being moved over to other side of the ledger would have it close to 50% at 6 to 7.

Now, during that 13 year span, how many different teams had a 1st OA or 2nd OA in their system? Looking from 2004 to 2016, there are 17 different teams with a 1st OA or 2nd OA pick. So, you'd expect teams to have one or the other a little under two thirds of the time.

So, is it really that surprising that teams that have won the SC have a top 2 pick as often as they do?

 

[Sweatred]

Ducks in 07 come to mind, Bobby Ryan had yet to play a game for them.
Wings a year later

So, 13 years, that's 4 different teams. On the flip side, Chi, Pit, LA, eat up 8 of the remaining years with multiple wins a piece. That's only if you count a 2nd OA. LA had Doughty at 2nd, but that's not a 1st OA, and there was no top pick combo unless you're really loose on top pick to include 11th OA. LA being moved over to other side of the ledger would have it close to 50% at 6 to 7.

Now, during that 13 year span, how many different teams had a 1st OA or 2nd OA in their system? Looking from 2004 to 2016, there are 17 different teams with a 1st OA or 2nd OA pick. So, you'd expect teams to have one or the other a little under two thirds of the time.

So, is it really that surprising that teams that have won the SC have a top 2 pick as often as they do?

I recalled Doughty was a #2. If you add LA's two cup wins in the past 10-11 years it furthers the significance of a top pick. My point was ... most teams who win the cup have a top pick, and most had more than one over a few years (PITT, CHI). The Sens haven't had a 1-2OA since Spezza. We also haven't been dominant since Spezza's prime. The Leaf's didn't make the playoffs until they got Matthews. We are not the type of team to sign Tavares types.

 

[Micklebot]

I recalled Doughty was a #2. If you add LA's two cup wins in the past 10-11 years it furthers the significance of a top pick. My point was ... most teams who win the cup have a top pick, and most had more than one over a few years (PITT, CHI). The Sens haven't had a 1-2OA since Spezza. We also haven't been dominant since Spezza's prime. The Leaf's didn't make the playoffs until they got Matthews. We are not the type of team to sign Tavares types.

First off, the leafs not making the playoffs till they got Matthews is incorrect, they made the playoffs in 2013 and then after missing the next year decided to tear things apart shortly afterwards. They also didn't just add Matthews and everything changed, they added Marner and Nylander at the same time. Attributing them making the playoffs to Matthews alone is disingenuous imo.

There's no doubt that having top picks helps the odds. You originally said it's hard to find teams without one though. I named 4, and then provided some context as to why it would be hard to find teams without a top pick (because a lot of teams have a top pick when you look at a 10+ year span),

Would we have better odds of winning a cup if we drafted multiple top picks? Absolutely. Nobody disputes that. Is it enough to have top picks though? Edmonton probably would argue that it is not.

 

[HSF]

First off, the leafs not making the playoffs till they got Matthews is incorrect, they made the playoffs in 2013 and then after missing the next year decided to tear things apart shortly afterwards. They also didn't just add Matthews and everything changed, they added Marner and Nylander at the same time. Attributing them making the playoffs to Matthews alone is disingenuous imo.

There's no doubt that having top picks helps the odds. You originally said it's hard to find teams without one though. I named 4, and then provided some context as to why it would be hard to find teams without a top pick (because a lot of teams have a top pick when you look at a 10+ year span),

Would we have better odds of winning a cup if we drafted multiple top picks? Absolutely. Nobody disputes that. Is it enough to have top picks though? Edmonton probably would argue that it is not.

tbh Marner and Nylander were high picks

the only winning formula is that you need elite players or guys who are playing elite in the playoffs. The best and easiest way of getting those guys is through the draft. Your best chance at getting elite talent at the draft come at the top of it.

Ottawa would have a lot of trouble attracting elite free agents and trade is no guarantee

 

[God Says No]

tbh Marner and Nylander were high picks

Those were great picks though for where they were picked. They could have easily players that went after them who are not as good. TOR has been drafting very well recently.

 

[HSF]

Those were great picks though for where they were picked. They could have easily players that went after them who are not as good. TOR has been drafting very well recently.

sure but it shows the importance of putting yourself in the position to draft higher end players by finishing low

 

[God Says No]

sure but it shows the importance of putting yourself in the position to draft higher end players by finishing low

Oh yeah, I'm not disputing that. You need both. A chance to draft a high end player, AND the talent to recognize the correct high end player. TOR had both, hence the situation they are in now.

 

[Cosmix]

7/10 last cup winners (CHI, PITT, WAS) won the cup on the backs of 1OA's or top pick combos. Before that CAR, TB, etc did too. It hard to find teams like STL or BOS that won without a top pick in their prime.

I agree that to get better faster, a team needs to get more higher draft picks than other teams, or have a higher budget to sign top UFAs or fleece other low budget teams in trades for young prospects with high ceilings.

The Senators don’t have the higher budget, and consequently don’t sign top UFAs, and don’t fleece other low budget teams in trades because they don’t have a smart GM.

Tanking to get higher draft picks is a decent strategy to reload the prospect pool quickly with higher talented prospects. Such teams also have to hope that the higher picks turn out to be high quality players, as well as that their lower picks and prospects turn out to be better than projected.

I am supportive of the Tank strategy; however, I want to see a new owner soon and a new GM with experience shortly after that.

 

[starling]

7/10 last cup winners (CHI, PITT, WAS) won the cup on the backs of 1OA's or top pick combos. Before that CAR, TB, etc did too. It hard to find teams like STL or BOS that won without a top pick in their prime.

If you look at ALL NHL teams, I bet you will find that 70% of them have 1OA's or top pick combos. So basically it doesn't matter in the end. It's all about GM and ownership, of which we have neither.

 

[Micklebot]

If you look at ALL NHL teams, I bet you will find that 70% of them have 1OA's or top pick combos. So basically it doesn't matter in the end. It's all about GM and ownership, of which we have neither.

We had the dynamic top picks duo of Bobby Ryan (2nd OA) and Kyle Turris (3rd OA) and rode that to the ECF, followed up by Bobby Ryan (2nd OA) and Duchene (3rd OA) who we rode to back to back years of 2nd last in the league and last respectively.

tbh Marner and Nylander were high picks

the only winning formula is that you need elite players or guys who are playing elite in the playoffs. The best and easiest way of getting those guys is through the draft. Your best chance at getting elite talent at the draft come at the top of it.

Ottawa would have a lot of trouble attracting elite free agents and trade is no guarantee

Drafting high increases the odds of getting elite talent, but it's what you do once you have that elite talent that makes the difference. We had Karlsson, who was just as good as almost any 1st OA pick we could have hoped for. We had Stone who was just as good as any top 5 pick we could have hoped for. At the end of the day it's the elite talent level that matters, not the number indicating where the player was drafted. Our problem was how we chose to surround those guys and the mistakes we made in trying to support them. We got the talent you hope for when you land a couple very high picks, we won the lottery with Karlsson and Stone but managed to blow it.

Instead of surround elite players with high end complimentary players like Chicago did (Hossa) and LA did (Carter) we went out and got guys like Brassard, Ryan, Phaneuf. We identified the wrong guys to put us over the top. In all three cases, we'd probably have been better off not making the trade. The one time we did a decent job of identifying a target (Duchene) we arguably overpaid, but definitely misjudged how close we were and whether or not that was the time to make a push.

 

[aragorn]

I think it will take more than 1 top draft pick to make this team into a playoff and SC contender. Not all of the current prospects will turn into NHL players nor play in the top 6. That is why I think we need several years of top 5 picks.

Well let's not forget that we already have a few top players (1st rders) in the organization in Tkachuk, White, Chabot, L. Brown, Brannstrom, Thomson, JBD, Norris & a couple of guys who IMO have top 6 potential in Formenton & Batherson. Replacing the crappy players we have now with guys who have higher potential should IMO improve the overall talent on the team & improve the team as a whole.

I expect they should add two more 1st rders this yr & hopefully a player or two in the 2nd rd just in the next draft. And then they will have the 2021 draft to add to these guys, it's going to take a few yrs but they should have plenty of skilled players on there roster within 2 or 3 yrs. However, whether all these guys eventually fulfill their potential or not remains to be seen.

 

[God Says No]

Well let's not forget that we already have a few top players (1st rders) in the organization in Tkachuk, White, Chabot, L. Brown, Brannstrom, Thomson, JBD, Norris & a couple of guys who IMO have top 6 potential in Formenton & Batherson. Replacing the crappy players we have now with guys who have higher potential should IMO improve the overall talent on the team & improve the team as a whole.

I expect they should add two more 1st rders this yr & hopefully a player or two in the 2nd rd just in the next draft. And then they will have the 2021 draft to add to these guys, it's going to take a few yrs but they should have plenty of skilled players on there roster within 2 or 3 yrs. However, whether all these guys eventually fulfill their potential or not remains to be seen.

Well the key point is that they need TOP 1st rounders. None of the players you listed are those. We have a shit load of picks coming up, the org should be trying to turn that quantity into quality by trading multiple picks to move up.