2018 off-season thread

[Ruck Over]

It isn't a contradiction. You can be significant while not being worth a certain amount of compensation relative to the rest of the team's situation.

Are we doing this thing where you're trying to be the smartest guy in the room again?

Just chillax broski.

We're doing a, please explain yourself broski thing. You have a premise, I do not understand because I am NOT THE SMARTEST GUY IN THE ROOM. So I am asking the perceived SMARTEST GUY IN THE ROOM to explain himself.

What was significant about MDZ as a Flyer? Simple question. Cause I don't see the difference between him and PEBs. Both cost next to nothing to bring in, both left without much fanfare, both better than some of the remaining players on this roster. (This is not a lament that PEBs is no longer on the team, just a comparison of similar situations and how unremarkable these examples are as not to be considered, "significant.")

 

[ItMe]

Wow! This team will be so good in 5 + years! Can't wait!

 

[Ruck Over]

Moving on from Del Zotto was a no-brainer. It would have been nice if Hexy could have worked that Lecavalier magic again with MacDonald but he decided he likes him. With Andy in tow, re-signing MDZ would have set the development of the young defensemen back and farther.

The problem with evaluating Hextall at the moment is that we don't know what short-term goals he has set for the team and himself. For the first few years his goal was obviously to improve the team's talent base and jettison some awful contracts. We mostly all agree that he's done a good job with that.

But the results at the NHL level haven't been great, and what little success the team has had (making the playoffs 2 years under Hakstol) has largely been due to the pieces in place before he was here. Homer did a fine job of assembling a veteran core (Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Couturier, Gostisbehere) while Hextall has added a great group of kids (Provorov, Konecny, Patrick, Lindblom). Getting that to coalesce into something capable of winning a playoff round has been a challenge.

We're drawing nigh on the time when the on-ice product has to be better. Fans deserve to be rewarded for their years of patience.

Moving on from Manning/AMac is a no-brainer too. Could've said that at the end of the 2016-17 season.

To the point, in the article that says nothing about anything, it would've been better received by myself, and potentially a few others, had there been more content in regards to the short-term goals. As the long-term goal, #winning, should be obvious.

 

[Ruck Over]

Clear as mud

What don't you understand? Or, since that was a sarcastic reply, do you actually understand, and have no answer?

MDZ helped them do what? How is it best to describe why the MDZ signing was significant?

 

[BrindamoursNose]

What don't you understand? Or, since that was a sarcastic reply, do you actually understand, and have no answer?

MDZ helped them do what? How is it best to describe why the MDZ signing was significant?

Alright, let me try to prove my point the easiest way I can:

Not even taking into consideration years 2 and 3 of Del Zotto's time here (because it'll be irrelevant in the end), Year 1 he was a very significant addition to the team. Just check those stats you posted (that have no headers btw so you couldn't know what stats I was even looking at). Based on year 1 alone, Del Zotto became our #1 guy on the backend. Now year 2 (for fun, I'll add this), he started out with top minutes and injuries bungled him. Year 3 he wasn't good anymore.

Regardless of his trash status in year 3, his very good Year 1 made him a significant contributor at one point (which is all that was being talked about).

That is my point and total response to this derailed discussion.

 

[duffy9748]

It’s been said before, but Hextall saw firsthand how LA won two Cups. They drafted and developed for a few years before going all in when Kopitar, Doughty, and company took that next step. They didn’t drag that process out for 7-8 years like some people think is going to happen here. The major acquisitions are coming over the next two off seasons.

A lot of people forget this, but they were very close to signing Kovalchuk to a major deal before they ever won their first Cup. That’s why I’m optimistic they’ll be in on Tavares because he’s not strictly a win-now move and he won’t cost any assets.

 

[Ruck Over]

Alright, let me try to prove my point the easiest way I can:

Not even taking into consideration years 2 and 3 of Del Zotto's time here (because it'll be irrelevant in the end), Year 1 he was a very significant addition to the team. Just check those stats you posted (that have no headers btw so you couldn't know what stats I was even looking at). Based on year 1 alone, Del Zotto became our #1 guy on the backend. Now year 2 (for fun, I'll add this), he started out with top minutes and injuries bungled him. Year 3 he wasn't good anymore.

Regardless of his trash status in year 3, his very good Year 1 made him a significant contributor at one point (which is all that was being talked about).

That is my point and total response to this derailed discussion.

You're a hockey fan, the stats are typical format, it could be figured out. Next time I'll hot-link it for everyone, or just info dump the whole chart instead of the relevant Flyers years. Michael Del Zotto Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

If we're splitting hairs so be it. I don't think of MDZ as significant in any way. The Flyers had some amazing OT/offensive performances from him year 1, and he looked like found money. Then the wheels fell off. He was cheap, no lasting impact. Significant has a higher hurdle to clear than that, either in risk or results.

 

[deadhead]

MDZ was a stopgap, maybe Hextall should have blown it up and not tried to be competitive, Voracek for example would have gotten a nice package of prospects and draft picks, better than Schenn. Losing would have landed multiple top five picks. That was probably a "bridge too far" for this organization.
And they've been competitive, they've made the playoffs two of the last three years, note that Toronto has also lost twice in the first round, but no one there is getting bent out of shape. That's because they can see their future is bright.

No matter what Hextall does, they're two years away from taking the next step, JT would not put them over the hump, because he would only strengthen a position of strength going forward, and not address other weaknesses. Myers and Sanheim need a couple years before they can handle playoff pressure for 20 minutes a night, we just saw Sanheim play an awful 1st period in the AHL playoffs. Konecny is still developing the two way game that will allow him to be mentioned in the same breath with Marchand (hopefully without the stupid dirty play). Provorov has improved but needs to handle the puck better in his own end (cut back on turnovers), Patrick is probably a couple years from elite or close to elite status. Llindblom is still adjusting to NHL speed. Ghost has to raise his game. Frost is 2-3 years from being an impact NHL player.

They're not five years away, but they're not there yet either.

In a couple years, the core will be playoff ready, and that's when you make the big move in the summer of 2020, with Hart in goal, with the defense set, with strength down the middle, the ED draft behind you, you make that move to finish out the job. Maybe you have to replace Lindblom or Voracek, lost in the ED, or another D-man, or a 30 goal scorer or . . .

Meanwhile, I expect steady improvement the next two years, some prospects will regress, some will step up, some will come out of nowhere - but there's safety in numbers, if we were depending on 3 or 4 we'd cross our fingers, but it's more like 9 or 10, so the odds are in our favor.

 

[duffy9748]

Ottawa could be a team that we match up well with for a trade. I’m not sure if they’d move on from Stone or Duchene, but I’d be comfortable giving them long term extensions and they’d both fit in well long and short term.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If you wanted to acquire Duchene, you would have to give them more than they paid for him, including the value of their unprotected 2019 1st with their roster without him.

Even setting aside my negative feelings toward Duchene the player and giving him a UFA rate contract at 28, that's a prohibitive cost.

 

[Psuhockey]

It’s been said before, but Hextall saw firsthand how LA won two Cups. They drafted and developed for a few years before going all in when Kopitar, Doughty, and company took that next step. They didn’t drag that process out for 7-8 years like some people think is going to happen here.

The only problem with comparing what Hextall did in LA and here is that Quick was already drafted the year before he got there. Quick spent a full season as a pro in the minors and parts of a 2nd before taking over as LA’s full time goalie in his 3rd year as a pro. He won the cup in his 5th year as pro.

So if Hart mirrors Quick, Hextall will finally win a cup in year 9. So saying he is dragging this out to 7-8 years isn’t a stretch unless you think Hart will win the Calder and Conn Smyth in the same year.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

for me i would like to hear about what they are doing to do a better job at developing our players. why players get traded to other teams and become better and are used differently. why when players are promoted from the ahl and look like they are going to be good they suddenly regress and look like deer in the headlights. do they intenionally try to break down the young players confidence to build them back up and neuter them. these are questions i would like to see honest non bullshit answers to from the coach and gm.

 

[duffy9748]

If you wanted to acquire Duchene, you would have to give them more than they paid for him, including the value of their unprotected 2019 1st with their roster without him.

Even setting aside my negative feelings toward Duchene the player and giving him a UFA rate contract at 28, that's a prohibitive cost.

I’m not entirely sure about that. Duchene’s main reason for wanting out of Colorado was to win. If they trade Karlsson then it’ll be a minimum of 3-4 years before they’re close to contending. They might have to just eat the fact that they made a mistake and move him instead of risking him walking for nothing.

With his skill set and versatility, I’d give him 7.5-8m per, not anymore though. Would 14+19 get it done? Play him at center for a year or two and let him play on Patrick’s wing after that. He’d be a huge boost to the 2nd PP unit too.

 

[duffy9748]

The only problem with comparing what Hextall did in LA and here is that Quick was already drafted the year before he got there. Quick spent a full season as a pro in the minors and parts of a 2nd before taking over as LA’s full time goalie in his 3rd year as a pro. He won the cup in his 5th year as pro.

So if Hart mirrors Quick, Hextall will finally win a cup in year 9. So saying he is dragging this out to 7-8 years isn’t a stretch unless you think Hart will win the Calder and Conn Smyth in the same year.

Hextall didn’t shy away from saying he’d upgrade any position this offseason. I don’t think our goalie tandem will be Neuvirth and Elliott next year. Hart is a promising young goalie but I’d be surprised if Hextall’s strategy strictly revolves around his trajectory.

He’s patient, but the Flyers aren’t ever going to be 10-15 million dollars under the salary cap. That money is going towards additional help.

 

[deadhead]

for me i would like to hear about what they are doing to do a better job at developing our players. why players get traded to other teams and become better and are used differently. why when players are promoted from the ahl and look like they are going to be good they suddenly regress and look like deer in the headlights. do they intenionally try to break down the young players confidence to build them back up and neuter them. these are questions i would like to see honest non bull**** answers to from the coach and gm.

Like whom?
Schenn put up better numbers, because he played 1st line minutes with two top wingers (neither of whom put up better numbers playing with Schenn).
Who else?
PEB was used in the same role for the same minutes and still can't shoot straight, but he has better wingers.
Cousins has better number playing more minutes on a horrible team where he can focus on trying to pad his stats.
Coburn, Kimmo, Streit, McGinn, Rinaldo, L Schenn, . . .

 

[deadhead]

I’m not entirely sure about that. Duchene’s main reason for wanting out of Colorado was to win. If they trade Karlsson then it’ll be a minimum of 3-4 years before they’re close to contending. They might have to just eat the fact that they made a mistake and move him instead of risking him walking for nothing.

With his skill set and versatility, I’d give him 7.5-8m per, not anymore though. Would 14+19 get it done? Play him at center for a year or two and let him play on Patrick’s wing after that. He’d be a huge boost to the 2nd PP unit too.

You're going to trade 2 players in a deep draft who are ED exempt, for a 28 year old C/LW who has to be signed to a big extension, probably $8-9M for 7-8 years at age 29, and then protected in the ED?
ES 48, 44, 31, 46, solid second line scoring but he's now past his peak years, so probably a 10-20% decline between 28-32. So around 40 a year for that stretch.
He's a decent possession guy, but nothing special. Nor a Selke candidate
Speed, shot, would certainly help but not a needle mover.

Better to just sign JT.

 

[duffy9748]

You're going to trade 2 players in a deep draft who are ED exempt, for a 28 year old C/LW who has to be signed to a big extension, probably $8-9M for 7-8 years at age 29, and then protected in the ED?
ES 48, 44, 31, 46, solid second line scoring but he's now past his peak years, so probably a 10-20% decline between 28-32. So around 40 a year for that stretch.
He's a decent possession guy, but nothing special. Nor a Selke candidate
Speed, shot, would certainly help but not a needle mover.

Better to just sign JT.

Earlier you said Patrick is a couple of years away from being elite while a few weeks ago you said he’d be the same caliber as JT next season. We disagree on too many things. Better to just agree on that.

 

[Lindberg]

I think the expansion draft is really going to deter Hextall from trading his two first round picks unless its for a player like Doughty / Karlsson (which I think would be worth it and I don't think it would just those picks for one of them either).

 

[deadhead]

Earlier you said Patrick is a couple of years away from being elite while a few weeks ago you said he’d be the same caliber as JT next season. We disagree on too many things. Better to just agree on that.

No, I didn't say he'd be the same caliber, I said he might score as much, that is, the difference between them won't be huge.
I expect Patrick to score at least 40 ES points next year, and JT has averaged 50 ES points.
In two years I'd take Patrick over JT.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I’m not entirely sure about that. Duchene’s main reason for wanting out of Colorado was to win. If they trade Karlsson then it’ll be a minimum of 3-4 years before they’re close to contending. They might have to just eat the fact that they made a mistake and move him instead of risking him walking for nothing.

With his skill set and versatility, I’d give him 7.5-8m per, not anymore though. Would 14+19 get it done? Play him at center for a year or two and let him play on Patrick’s wing after that. He’d be a huge boost to the 2nd PP unit too.

14 + 19 for one year of Duchene is straight up Bad Holmgren levels of asset management. That's absurd for this team in this situation.

There's little reason to do it at the draft unless someone bails them out or they completely flip the switch and move Karlsson, Duchene, and Hoffman all at once and make a decision on Stone. I can't say for sure that they won't because they're in an ongoing PR apocalypse and have a well-deserved rep for incompetence, but the franchise is pretty much dead in the water if they throw the switch.

They can still move him during the year if/when it doesn't go well, especially when you don't have the downside of artificially inflating your point total. Your returns move back a year if you wait until December, but if you sell off your four key assets, that doesn't really matter.

 

[David St Hubbins]

I'm pretty sure those quotes are just addressing the traditional average fan who's probably pining for them to sign every major UFA under the sun. Take it for what it is.

I really would not praise the tone of an article from an org mouthpiece, though. That is what it is too.

IT's a giant misdirection! This proves that not only is he planning to sign Tavares, he has been secretly meeting with him through a Russian cut-out and has convinced JT to sign long term for $5Mper season.

 

[Curufinwe]

Friedman is speculating that Lou was brought in because the Isles thought JT was gone.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

14 + 19 for one year of Duchene is straight up Bad Holmgren levels of asset management. That's absurd for this team in this situation.

There's little reason to do it at the draft unless someone bails them out or they completely flip the switch and move Karlsson, Duchene, and Hoffman all at once and make a decision on Stone. I can't say for sure that they won't because they're in an ongoing PR apocalypse and have a well-deserved rep for incompetence, but the franchise is pretty much dead in the water if they throw the switch.

They can still move him during the year if/when it doesn't go well, especially when you don't have the downside of artificially inflating your point total. Your returns move back a year if you wait until December, but if you sell off your four key assets, that doesn't really matter.

Ottawa will be an interesting watch this summer. Karlsson is more than likely traded but what do they do with Duchene, Stone, & Hoffman. The latter two they have some flexibility to wait a little bit on & still about maximize their value later on.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Friedman is speculating that Lou was brought in because the Isles thought JT was gone.

I want JT gone because it means we have a crack at him, but I'm also fearful a team like TO will grab him...gah at the idea of a TO dynasty.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Ottawa will be an interesting watch this summer. Karlsson is more than likely traded but what do they do with Duchene, Stone, & Hoffman. The latter two they have some flexibility to wait a little bit on & still about maximize their value later on.

Yep. Stone and Meehan have a really interesting situation too. This is the only time in the near future they’ll likely have any real leverage.