Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[Kiwi]

He has major upside. Big guy who can move and has good offensive skills. He also has major bust potential. More than most you can take at that position. His defensive game is not bad, but it is more raw than most in that range, and you are taking a huge risk that he has the IQ to pick up his defensive game over the next few years to be a reliable shutdown type guy in the NHL.

He reminds me a lot of JD Greenway. Better in a few areas, but generally the same strengths, weaknesses and upside. I'd expect Miller to be gone long before 72, but there is not enough there for me to see him being the Leafs' prime target at 25.

I'd take him long before Addison, Wilde and definitely Merkley though.

Outstanding tools
Upward trajectory
Outstanding advanced stats (small sample I'll admit)
Recently switched to defense
Plays in every situation

In the 9 major categories that are used to evaluate defensive prospects outside of the top 15 he's top 2 in 6 of them, all of the offensive categories and top in NZ defense

Go and have a look at the Athletic article if your able, it makes him look extremely good

 

[Community]

"Insane IQ" ? Tbh I've not heard it praised that highly before. If things go right for Merkley, I think you're looking at a poor man's Gardiner. Nothing to get overly excited about imho.

In order for Merkley to make the NHL and things to go right he will need to change his approach to the game so it's hard to see what his potential is. However, if things go right without him making changes to his game then he definitely has a higher offensive upside than what Gardiner has showed so far. As another poster said, he's Gardiner to the extreme at the moment.

Merkley went over ppg this year and just shy of ppg the year before on a poor Guelph team (he had the highest PPG of anybody on the team - including all forwards - for both years).

I think that's enough on Merkley though... I think Miller sounds like a really interesting pick, but I think there is a good chance we actually trade back this year. I don't care who we pick or even if we pick anybody at all, but if we do I hope we go for one of the higher ceiling players available (which by all accounts is what Dubas is looking to do).

 

[Liminality]

In order for Merkley to make the NHL and things to go right he will need to change his approach to the game so it's hard to see what his potential is. However, if things go right without him making changes to his game then he definitely has a higher offensive upside than what Gardiner has showed so far. As another poster said, he's Gardiner to the extreme at the moment.

Merkley went over ppg this year and just shy of ppg the year before on a poor Guelph team (he had the highest PPG of anybody on the team - including all forwards - for both years).

I think that's enough on Merkley though... I think Miller sounds like a really interesting pick, but I think there is a good chance we actually trade back this year. I don't care who we pick or even if we pick anybody at all, but if we do I hope we go for one of the higher ceiling players available (which by all accounts is what Dubas is looking to do).

Definitely agree there, trade back in the 30's and 40's since most of the players there seem interchangeable.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Merkley is like Gardiner except better offensively, and worse defensively. Almost to an extreme.

That to me sounds like nightmare! Being that poor defensively would not make up for that offence. I mean, he's a defenceman, defence is still his #1 job.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'd agree he has a lot of red flags and wouldn't be my first choice at 25, but if you can fix some of those issues? That's a very skilled player.

I mean, there's a chance he can, and I hope if we draft him he does. But, I don't see it as likely. Maybe the draft is a wake up call for him, but I'd think if he still goes 1st round, its unlikely to happen. Most kids with the types of red-flags attached to them end up moving from organization to organization before they figure it out.

If you get a top 4 PP-QB specialist at 25 it is a win. But, I wouldn't consider that the likely outcome in this case. Although, I don't see any way he'll be able to be a passable top pairing defender defensively unless he somehow turns into Erik Karlsson offensively.

 

[93LEAFS]

That to me sounds like nightmare! Being that poor defensively would not make up for that offence. I mean, he's a defenceman, defence is still his #1 job.

He makes Gardiner and Ghostisbehere look like Rod Langway and Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

 

[Community]

I don't think I've heard of Barzal having off ice and on ice issues like Merkley. Not sure it's fair to compare them.

What do you mean by off ice issues? As Bob Mckenzie has said, all of his off-ice issues are based on his immaturity in the locker-room, the bench, etc. McKenzie has gone on to say that "his billet family and folks in Guelph have all kinds of good things to say about him."

While this is definitely concerning and a legitimate reason to not draft somebody, I have more faith in somebody becoming more mature over time/becoming accountable than a full on personality change like DeAngelo and Ho-Sang needed.

DeAngelo made racist remarks multiple times, I believe even once being a teammate although I can't remember if that is true or if it was just the officials.

Ho-Sang was so full of himself and showed it in interviews; something that was evident on AND off the ice.

It will still be a difficult path for anybody that takes Merkley, but I believe it is easier to fix a prospect with on-ice issues that is not a headcase off the ice than one that has issues on-ice because of his off-ice issues (by off-ice I mean how they are as a person).

***Edited to improve readability, it's getting late for me...***

 

[93LEAFS]

What do you mean by off ice issues? As Bob Mckenzie has said, all of his off-ice issues are based on his immaturity in the locker-room, the bench, etc. McKenzie has gone on to say that "his billet family and folks in Guelph have all kinds of good things to say about him."

While this is definitely concerning and a legitimate reason to not draft somebody, I have more faith in somebody becoming more mature over time/becoming accountable than a full on change like DeAngelo and Ho-Sang needed (DeAngelo made racist remarks multiple times, I believe even once being a teammate although I can't remember if that is right or not and Ho-Sang was full of himself and showed it in interviews; something that was evident even off-ice). It will still be difficult, but it is easier to fix a prospect with on-ice issues, but not a headcase off the ice than one that is a headcase off the ice.

Bob was soft on it. He actually said more than I expected. They rarely will go in-depth on anything like that due to pissing off agents. Bob isn't going to openly burn a teenager heavily in the draft (a minor story) and piss-off a guy who leaks him contract discussions like JP Barry (one of the 5 biggest agents in Hockey). The NHL writers are more about promotion of the game and interesting stories than in-depth reporting. Why do you think it took a non-hockey reporter to blow up the Hoffman story. After months of whispers from hockey people of disconnect in the Ottawa locker room and Hoffman being on the trading block.

 

[HC7]

I still hope we get Dellandrea. Stats aren't anything to look at, but when you consider his team was crap and only 2 other players score more than 30 points and both were over-agers you start to see how garbage his situation actually was. Plus he's one of the youngest, and was Canada's best/2nd best at the U18s. Plus in Flint his advanced stats are up there with Svech. Better than Zadina, Hayton, etc. Unfortunately I think Anaheim will pick him, but if not he's going to become a very, very good NHL player.

Also, on an unrelated note. Merkley isn't as bad defensively as he is on Guelph. He's proved that internationally where he still isn't great, but is respectable especially compared to the other D. He'll never be a 2-Way D. You hope that with his offensive talent he can become a 70-80 point D-Man that plays with very good forwards while getting favourable match-ups. You have to remember Karlsson is pretty shit defensively even at this age. He will always be a liability, the question is if the offence he creates is a net positive.

At this stage I think it's probable that Liljegren can become the top pairing RHD we need. His progression this year alone has been insane, and it's obvious he was the Liljegren that was touted to go 2nd. Dermott could even develop into a 2/3. I think Rielly is a bonafide #1 and will get Norris votes next year. However he still needs a partner for the present. I think Rasmus Andersson from Calgary would be available to fill that void, maybe not very well, but better than Hainsey playing 20 a night for 100 games a year. Plus he's the same age as Dermott and has room to grow.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Outstanding tools
Upward trajectory
Outstanding advanced stats (small sample I'll admit)
Recently switched to defense
Plays in every situation

Every player at #25 has bust potential but Miller is one of the better bets in that range

Even using Greenway in the same sentence is redicuous

A lot of those things describe Greenway too. Maybe not to the same extent, but that's why I am not saying he's going to be taken as low as Greenway either.

I am not saying nobody else at 25 does not have bust potential, but Miller definitely is among the highest in that range. He's got a ton of tools, probably more than most in that range, but he'll require a lot more time, work and molding than anyone else in that range as well.

I think of Miller highly. High enough that I have him in my next tier despite being one of only two players who is raw (at least in his own zone) and will require a decent amount of work from our developmental team (the other was Denisenko). However I think there are other guys in that range with great upside and are far more likely to reach that upside than Miller. Including Sandin.

I will say that if I had to pick a handful of guys in my next tier down who I would select at 25, he'd probably be one of the first. If that is any consolation.

 

[93LEAFS]

A lot of those things describe Greenway too. Maybe not to the same extent, but that's why I am not saying he's going to be taken as low as Greenway either.

I am not saying nobody else at 25 does not have bust potential, but Miller definitely is among the highest in that range. He's got a ton of tools, probably more than most in that range, but he'll require a lot more time, work and molding than anyone else in that range as well.

I think of Miller highly. High enough that I have him in my next tier despite being one of only two players who is raw (at least in his own zone) and will require a decent amount of work from our developmental team (the other was Denisenko). However I think there are other guys in that range with great upside and are far more likely to reach that upside than Miller. Including Sandin.

I will say that if I had to pick a handful of guys in my next tier down who I would select at 25, he'd probably be one of the first. If that is any consolation.

The only thing that I think makes it unfair to group Miller in with Greenway, is that to the best of my knowledge Greenaway has had significant off the ice issues that have derailed his career and are a reason he's leaving Wisconsin.

Now, something like that could go hay-wire with Miller, but by all accounts, he's an A+ level kid with a very strong work ethic.

 

[Community]

Bob was soft on it. He actually said more than I expected. They rarely will go in-depth on anything like that due to pissing off agents. Bob isn't going to openly burn a teenager heavily in the draft (a minor story) and piss-off a guy who leaks him contract discussions like JP Barry (one of the 5 biggest agents in Hockey). The NHL writers are more about promotion of the game and interesting stories than in-depth reporting. Why do you think it took a non-hockey reporter to blow up the Hoffman story. After months of whispers from hockey people of disconnect in the Ottawa locker room and Hoffman being on the trading block.

It's not like he was being nice in what he said, he did bring up his issues and what they are ---> "The concerns that NHL scouts have with Ryan Merkley is not what he does away from the rink, it’s what he does in the rink: On the ice and off the ice – as in, on the bench, in the dressing room, those types of things… (What we’re talking about here is) we have an extremely immature hockey player with a massive amount of offensive ability. He’s been described as petulant, and at times I think he’s made his own life in hockey difficult…he’s had poor self-awareness, and a real lack of accountability."


I know you really don't like Merkley, but I think you are digging further than you should to point out as many things as possible that are wrong with him. He's obviously a flawed prospect, you don't have to convince anybody of that.

This is actually the last response I will make about Merkley with you because I'd rather read more/discuss some other potential picks and enjoy the draft

 

[Community]

A lot of those things describe Greenway too. Maybe not to the same extent, but that's why I am not saying he's going to be taken as low as Greenway either.

I am not saying nobody else at 25 does not have bust potential, but Miller definitely is among the highest in that range. He's got a ton of tools, probably more than most in that range, but he'll require a lot more time, work and molding than anyone else in that range as well.

I think of Miller highly. High enough that I have him in my next tier despite being one of only two players who is raw (at least in his own zone) and will require a decent amount of work from our developmental team (the other was Denisenko). However I think there are other guys in that range with great upside and are far more likely to reach that upside than Miller. Including Sandin.

I will say that if I had to pick a handful of guys in my next tier down who I would select at 25, he'd probably be one of the first. If that is any consolation.

My poor Guelph Storm team has been a bit of a dumpster fire since their championship year . I bet they would have won the memorial cup that year though if it was a series instead of one game

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The only thing that I think makes it unfair to group Miller in with Greenway, is that to the best of my knowledge Greenaway has had significant off the ice issues that have derailed his career and are a reason he's leaving Wisconsin.

Now, something like that could go hay-wire with Miller, but by all accounts, he's an A+ level kid with a very strong work ethic.

I am more referring to at the time he was drafted. Did not have those issues when he was drafted (as they do not really have to do with his character or work ethic), and nobody really knew they were going to happen. So that could happen to anyone really.

I am purely comparing when Greenway was drafted vs. Miller right now.

 

[93LEAFS]

I am more referring to at the time he was drafted. Did not have those issues when he was drafted (as they do not really have to do with his character or work ethic), and nobody really knew they were going to happen. So that could happen to anyone really.

I am purely comparing when Greenway was drafted vs. Miller right now.

There were work ethic questions around that time, just not that wide-spread. Part of the reason he was there in the 3rd.

 

[KMNRB]

If anyone wants to find me a piece which shows where Barzal was red-flagged by multiple NHL teams. which was a known fact about both Ho-Sang and Merkley (and Pilon but not reported on). I'd support your claim. But, otherwise its a false equivlancy. Like when people talk about Nylander having "character concerns." These guys may have not been saints, cocky and occasionally moody, but they didn't have issues where a significant portion of the NHL scouting community wanted nothing to do with the,

Isles get the player they wanted in Mathew Barzal

"The British Columbia native rubbed some teams the wrong way during the interview process, according to Frank Servalli of TSN. Similarly to Joshua Ho-Sang, Barzal likes to ask questions and voice his opinion. For most teams, traits like that are not the most preferred.

However, the Islanders are a different story and if that is the case about Barzal then he will fit right in. The Islanders value character a lot, but they don't have an issue with players having a bit of a personality. This is the team who's general manager had a "drop the mic" type moment last season at the draft, so a little bravado and edge is nothing new for the Islanders."

Pls note that I am actually one of those who won't touch Merkley for the first 2 rounds. Thcharacter issue with Merkley (like always blaming and yelling at teammates) is different from the "personality" issue in Barzal. But it does show that Garth Snow's strategy regarding character actually worked out once.

 

[Kiwi]

A lot of those things describe Greenway too. Maybe not to the same extent, but that's why I am not saying he's going to be taken as low as Greenway either.

I am not saying nobody else at 25 does not have bust potential, but Miller definitely is among the highest in that range. He's got a ton of tools, probably more than most in that range, but he'll require a lot more time, work and molding than anyone else in that range as well.

I think of Miller highly. High enough that I have him in my next tier despite being one of only two players who is raw (at least in his own zone) and will require a decent amount of work from our developmental team (the other was Denisenko). However I think there are other guys in that range with great upside and are far more likely to reach that upside than Miller. Including Sandin.

I will say that if I had to pick a handful of guys in my next tier down who I would select at 25, he'd probably be one of the first. If that is any consolation.

Meh

It's a difference of opinion over a player, not the first time definitely not the last
I've got Sandin behind Miller, his skating is just ok and he gets hit way to much for my liking for a smaller guy, he's a major durability risk at the next level imo

93Leafs can go into the attitude stuff with the two players (Miller Greenway) better than me so I'll leave that to him

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

My board for 25:

Kravtsov
Smith
Farabee
Berggren
Denisenko
Miller
Lundestrom
Dellandrea
Thomas
Bokk
Alexeyev
Wilde

For pick 52:

Lundkvist
Beaudin
Groulx
Hallander
Morozov
Bernard-Docker
Wise
Foudy

 

[93LEAFS]

Isles get the player they wanted in Mathew Barzal

"The British Columbia native rubbed some teams the wrong way during the interview process, according to Frank Servalli of TSN. Similarly to Joshua Ho-Sang, Barzal likes to ask questions and voice his opinion. For most teams, traits like that are not the most preferred.

However, the Islanders are a different story and if that is the case about Barzal then he will fit right in. The Islanders value character a lot, but they don't have an issue with players having a bit of a personality. This is the team who's general manager had a "drop the mic" type moment last season at the draft, so a little bravado and edge is nothing new for the Islanders."

Pls note that I am actually one of those who won't touch Merkley for the first 2 rounds. Thcharacter issue with Merkley (like always blaming and yelling at teammates) is different from the "personality" issue in Barzal. But it does show that Garth Snow's strategy regarding character actually worked out once.

I get what you are saying, and I know about this piece. But, I've never seen him classified as a No-Draft (maybe Boston did, but that wouldn't explain Kyle Connor or their picks in general). There is a big difference between teams not really liking a guy during an interview and a guy being widely red-flagged by NHL scouting. There were similar knocks on guys like Nylander being difficult, but he wasn't flagged by teams. There was really nothing said along the lines of what we heard about Merkley, Ho-Sang and Kabanov pre-draft.

I'd say it a quite a bit different situation. It worked out with Cizikis, who was widely red-flagged. His drop was more fueled by tearing messing up his knee mid-year roughhousing with a teammate.

Look, a bunch of these kids has flaws. Guys like Kadri was considered a selfish player and me-first player, Taylor Hall was an asshole who liked to party, and so on. But, no one put these guys on no-draft lists.

 

[Macallan18]

He makes Gardiner and Ghostisbehere look like Rod Langway and Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

What if he was shifted to wing ala Gary Leeman?

 

[93LEAFS]

What if he was shifted to wing ala Gary Leeman?

That shift has rarely been successful this day and age for his type of player. A lot of his success comes from pushing the play up ice and gaining speed through the neutral zone. Plus, I'd also think it would be crazy to take a guy in the top 62 with the intention of changing his position.

 

[weems]

I wouldn't at all mind if Dubas traded back and even a few times if he wanted to get super creative.
It's always a unpopular move by many fans but a lot of smart management teams in other sports employ it. Doesn't work sometimes but when it does you can really hit a home run like we did with the Dermott tradeback.

Dubas has been the architech of great programs and usually its built on drafting/developing and just a general skill at finding talent.

Give him a handful of bullets in the 40-55 range and see if he can scoop up a few really good players.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I wouldn't at all mind if Dubas traded back.
It's always a unpopular move by many fans but a lot of smart management teams in other sports employ it. Doesn't work sometimes but when it does you can really hit a home run like we did with the Dermott tradeback.

Dubas has been the architech of great programs and usually its built on drafting/developing and just a general skill at finding talent.

Give him a handful of bullets in the 40-55 range and see if he can scoop up a few really good players.

it depends who's on the board at the time I guess, as well as the deal. If we can get a Euro winger, Miller, or a faller like Veleno or something I'd rather scoop them up, otherwise I wouldn't mind trading back.

 

[96]

Merkley + McBain would be quite the haul with our first 2 picks

I’d also be down for Veleno if he drops, I think we can get Merkley between 28-35 if Dubas wants to trade down. Then go with Merkley, McShane and McBain.

 

[Duffman955]

I like Miller's potential quite a bit. I like Woo in a trade back scenario. Most of the forwards seem mediocre and their production doesnt look good