Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[93LEAFS]

I'm of the opinion that more is more, if we got picks and prospects for those guys it also puts us in a position that we can use those in trade. I don't think we're in bad shape like the early 2000's where we never drafted in the 1st round but I think we have at least one major roster hole still at RHD, and if we were making a trade for a guy of the caliber that we really need with a futures package we would have to gut our next couple of drafts - like Hamonic got 3 top 62 picks himself and I think we'd be aiming higher than him in the ideal scenario, so I like the idea of preserving JVR/Bozak/Komarov's value if we aren't re-signing them for the possibility of using those returns for a really good defenseman too. Once you have the futures that those guys bring back, they're easy currency if that's what we want to do too


I think Babcock knew what he was signing up for when he came here (There's pain coming) and he was as surprised as anyone how little time the turnaround took. I'm sure the whole management team has re-assessed and doesn't think that they're in the depths of a rebuild anymore but I'd be shocked if any of them thought this was a home ice in the first round or bust type season

Agree that the picks we're going to get are likely to be in the 20's, but this draft is touted as really deep in quality defense and the last couple of JVR comparables that were traded with full years left on their contracts (Lucic, Bobby Ryan) got 1st rounders that were expected to be late and ended up #10 & #13 so there's a chance that the teams that are trading for these guys don't perform as well as they thought (that almost happened with the Kessel trade where they looked like they might not make the playoffs at one point, womp womp on that one i guess). Anyway I would go into that aware of the expected odds of the player drafted with that pick being a long term NHL'er, I still like the idea of having those picks in the coffers

If you're dealing Bozak, I think Marner is playing with Nylander after that and probably Kapanen or Leivo on the LW, that still seems very strong to me. Then if Connor Brown moves back to Matthews' RW, especially if he was playing on the 4th line before that as it looks like he might, I think the risk of missing those guys is pretty small. Let's say for argument's sake that we wanted to keep Komarov for a year or two re-sign but the others were on the block:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
JVR-Bozak-Marner
Marleau-Kadri-Komarov
Martin-Moore-Brown

becomes:

Hyman-Matthews-Brown
Kapanen/Leivo-Nylander-Marner
Marleau-Kadri-Komarov
Martin-Moore-Sosh/call-up/the other one of Leivo/Kap

I don't see a huge difference in the likely quality of those two lineups honestly. So I don't really see it as a "sell" scenario, more a "preserve the value of excess assets" one. I know there's a bit of a risk with Leivo/Kapanen but we're going to have to roll the dice on some rookies on scoring lines either now or next year so I'd rather get it out of the way and get some stuff for them

I can't see any way Babcock goes down the stretch with Marner, Nylander and Kapanen as a line. He simply wouldn't trust Nylander enough defensively to do that. I see a massive gap between JVR and Leivo or Kapanen at this point in time and Brown moving to Matthews wing is a sizable downgrade on Nylander. You just don't make whole sale changes at the deadline if you are in the playoffs and have a winnable division. Which we should. Deep drafts really only means the top 10. This draft is average past the top 10, like most drafts. Very rarely do drafts deviate much from average after the top 10. The chances of getting a contributing NHLer in the 15-31 range, varies from 40% to 30%. In general, most flame out, or become replacement level players. I strongly disagree that if we are fighting for the division crown we will take a step back. I believe Babcock was fine with the initial pain, but I don't think he would react well to taking a sizable step back when we have a decent chance of getting to the final 4. We have a bunch of the replacement wingers already in the pipeline, with some probably making it due to sheer volume. We have our 3 Centers and we have one hole in our top 4, which is hopefully fixable internally.

 

[firstemperor]

Look at it from this perspective- lineup B is lineup A after suffering the loss of a 50 point top 9 centre and 60 point top line wing. How does lineup B look after the same? And how about with the further complication of a top 9 forward under performing?

Definitely have to acknowledge the pessimistic/low-end perspective of losing JVR+ Bozak..particularly with JVR, I think it's a bit of wishful thinking that Kapanen and Leivo can replace his load offensively by next season....let alone, into their careers. JVR has been a legitimate 30/30 guy for years now.

Leivo may be heavy, good on the puck but as Babcock has stated- he stops skating sometimes and can be ineffective as such. Kapanen is still a prospect. Neither have the high-end finishing ability that JVR provides up close...nor the net presence dynamic that he has. Really, no Leaf besides perhaps only Matthews is nearly as effective as JVR up close and in tight corners- as it pertains to finishing. Obviously, they can fill in, in other areas (like defensively) and make up the gap.

I can't see any way Babcock goes down the stretch with Marner, Nylander and Kapanen as a line. He simply wouldn't trust Nylander enough defensively to do that.

Agreed, just one slight qualm. I don't think it's a matter of trusting Nylander defensively....Nylander's defense/2 way game was easily a plus late into the year and entering the playoffs. He's also sneakily strong on the puck down-low and on the boards...which is a bit of a requisite to play up the middle these days.

Moreover, Bozak's defensive game/board work is absolutely pathetic for a C at this point. It's obvious how much of a impact we're losing up the middle, every night at ES when Bozak's line is on the ice versus Kadri's, Matthews (and this is only exacerbated in a high pace, heavier environment like the playoffs). I actually think there's no doubt that Nylander can fill in C by tomorrow and provide a far greater impact than Bozak is/has been doing. (Though I do acknowledge Bozak's line is essentially, our 3rd line/sheltered line so in totality, we do have a luxury versus other NHL teams and I am picking at straws a bit with our top 9).

But I do think that under Babcock's expectations of what he wants/needs Nylander to be, for this team to be successful- he doesn't trust Nylander enough to play C this season. Or at least, he wants him to further groom in that position from a 2-way, 200-foot game standpoint. His expectations are notably, and justifiably a lot higher for Nylander.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Your right I haven't seen him much.

ditto, I'd be selling today and gambling on Leivo/Kapanen/Grundstrom with Soshnikov in reserve (and maybe add something to that reserve that's serviceable)

I think that sets up a scenario where when the next waive of RFA's is up, and they need bigger money, you can flip them for more futures and replace them with the wave behind them - rinse & repeat

As long as you have more guys with upside to fill the role than open roles in each wave, I think that's a good bet. Just keep throwing a lot against the wall and see what sticks




I'd move Korshkov up a couple of tiers, he's a Grundstrom level guy in my eyes, we just don't see him much. Also think Leivo has shown enough that I think he has a better chance of making it than not

agree with the sentiment though

So I cant say where he stands. As good as Grundstrom, for real? That says a lot but I think Grundstrom's physical play must put him higher.

 

[93LEAFS]

HockeyProspect.com has just published their first rankings of the new season. Here is the top 10, the rest can be found at their site.

https://www.hockeyprospect.com/hockeyprospect-com-2018-nhl-draft-rankings-top-62-september-edition/

1: Rasmus Dahlin
2: Andrei Svechnikov
3: Adam Boqvist
4: Brady Tkachuk
5: Rasmus Kupari
6: Filip Zadina
7: Joel Farabee
8: Oliver Wahlstrom
9: Ty Smith
10: Quinn Hughes

 

[darrylsittler27]

I'm not seeing any Power forwards in the 1st round mix, bummer. We have plenty of forwards and once Liljegren and Nielsen make Tor. that blueline will get very crowded. So, it looks like BPA next year most likely drafting 22nd or later. Hope a PF or goalie creeps up out of nowhere.

 

[Battle Lin]

our forward and now even defensive depth is looking really good, though you can never have enough D, i think we need a nice young goalie prospect

 

[ErnieLeafs]

We wasted a pick on a panicky looking goalie last year. Maybe we'll try to draft one that actually projects to be an NHL goaltender this time around. My hopes are well below being high.

 

[darrylsittler27]

I'm happy with Woll but worried once Andersen completes his 4 years(contract) left. He will want too much and if we don't have his replacement? Goalies take way longer and many aren't ready in 4 years. To me G is the weakness of the organization followed by a PF who can play top 6 and no, I don't mean Hyman.

 

[LeafChief]

I'm happy with Woll but worried once Andersen completes his 4 years(contract) left. He will want too much and if we don't have his replacement? Goalies take way longer and many aren't ready in 4 years. To me G is the weakness of the organization followed by a PF who can play top 6 and no, I don't mean Hyman.

Introducing Carl Grundstrom.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Agreed, but I still think we need to fish out a more terrifying type with some real pugilistic abilities i.e Lucic, Neely, Clark etc. types. I am concerned with all the smallish guys we have they will get run as a tactic ending in serious injury without proper deterents like Martin, whom many wail about. Grundstrom is good but he wont stop many guys from trying to kill Marner, Nylander and others. In the playoffs anything can happen and PP doesn't replace your guy when he gets taken out of the series by a 4th line nobody.

 

[IceColdBear]

Agreed, but I still think we need to fish out a more terrifying type with some real pugilistic abilities i.e Lucic, Neely, Clark etc. types. I am concerned with all the smallish guys we have they will get run as a tactic ending in serious injury without proper deterents like Martin, whom many wail about. Grundstrom is good but he wont stop many guys from trying to kill Marner, Nylander and others. In the playoffs anything can happen and PP doesn't replace your guy when he gets taken out of the series by a 4th line nobody.

There is zero evidence that having tough players helps "protect" your skill players. Sure, physicality is great to have because it can wear down the opposition, but it doesn't prevent your team from suffering injuries.

As for the draft, in my opinion our prospect weakness is at center. Yes, we have Matthews, Kadri, Bozak, and potentially Nylander in the NHL, but we have essentially no center prospects beyond Gauthier, and Adam Brooks (who is likely to play wing).

 

[darrylsittler27]

You cant say C is our most pressing need when you have those 6. It is no longer a pressing need since both Nylander and perhaps Marner could play C in a pinch.We also have Aaltonen making 8 potential C. Right now we have perhaps Woll who is years away in G, arguably the most important position. I have no problem selecting a C and I think we are actually loaded with D since we took Liljegren plus have Dermott, Nielsen close not to mention Rosen and Borgman with darkhorse Rasanen. In short, if we had Price or Murray, we are contenders.

 

[Menzinger]

Agreed that the Leafs supposed "centre depth" issue is way overblown. If Nylander transitions over they'll have their top 9 centres for the next several seasons.

Don't really have any preference at this draft, just focus on BPA.

 

[Kiwi]

Agreed that the Leafs supposed "centre depth" issue is way overblown. If Nylander transitions over they'll have their top 9 centres for the next several seasons.

Don't really have any preference at this draft, just focus on BPA.

I'd still lean defense in a toss up situation

 

[bobermay]

We're starting to have a more balanced prospect pool, and I'd be happy with selecting a C, D or G in the first couple of rounds... What we don't really need is more wingers IMO...

At the end of the day, we should alway draft BPA... if thats a winger, so be it... but I'm hoping for a C,D or G

 

[bobermay]

Just quickly looked into stats of the 1st round rater 2018 prospects.... Looks like we could be in a good, deep draft year, especially for RHD...

I'll be keeping an eye on:
Jack McBain
Jared McIsaac
Ryan Merkley
Bode Wilde
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Jett Woo
Xavier Bouchard

 

[4thline]

Agreed that the Leafs supposed "centre depth" issue is way overblown. If Nylander transitions over they'll have their top 9 centres for the next several seasons.
Don't really have any preference at this draft, just focus on BPA.

The thing is though that drafting where we are likely to the Centre get isn't going to be ready in the next several seasons, it will be closer to when Kadri's contract is done.

We're starting to have a more balanced prospect pool, and I'd be happy with selecting a C, D or G in the first couple of rounds... What we don't really need is more wingers IMO...

At the end of the day, we should alway draft BPA... if thats a winger, so be it... but I'm hoping for a C,D or G

Sure we do. We have two forward prospects under 20 right now, and neither is really high end. We need the next wave. By the time a CHL drafted non-late birthday winger is ready to graduate to the AHL every wing prospect outside McGregor and the Russians will need waivers

 

[bobermay]

Sure we do. We have two forward prospects under 20 right now, and neither is really high end. We need the next wave. By the time a CHL drafted non-late birthday winger is ready to graduate to the AHL every wing prospect outside McGregor and the Russians will need waivers

I disagree....

Our depth at each position (U25):
Wing (n=17, 14 not full-time NHL)
Marner*
Brown*
Leivo*
Kapanen
Soshnikov
Rychel
Grundstrom
Johnsson
Bracco
Timashov
Lindberg
Korshkov
Chebykin
Kara
Dzierkals
Moore
Bobylev
Engvall

Center (n=7, 5 not full-time NHL):
Matthews*
Nylander*
Aaltonen
Gauthier
Brooks
McGregor
Joshua

Defense (n=14, ~10 not full-time NHL):
Rielly*
Borgman*
Rosen*
Carrick*
Liljegren
Rasanen
Dermott
Nielsen
Valiev
Gordeev
Greenway
Middleton
Mattinen
Lindgren

Goaltending (n=4):
Sparks
Kaskisuo
Woll
Scott


Its clear to me Center and Goaltending is our biggest needs.... Wingers are also the most easiest position to acquire VIA trades if we get desperate as well...

Again, I'm more of a BPA guy... but I hope that BPA is a C, D or G.... quality players of these positions are harder to acquire.

 

[Menzinger]

He leafs have lots of useful depth wingers but they don't have any high offensive ceiling guys other tHan maybe Bracco if he pans out.

 

[Kiwi]

He leafs have lots of useful depth wingers but they don't have any high offensive ceiling guys other tHan maybe Bracco if he pans out.

High end centers to play them with can mitigate that lack of high end offensive ability somewhat

 

[Apotheosis]

Merkley is already dropping that much?! 15th and it isn't even the end of October yet.

 

[93LEAFS]

Merkley is already dropping that much?! 15th and it isn't even the end of October yet.

He was 22nd in the Black Book. He's actually risen, and Button has him in the teens too. I wouldn't call that dropping, he's a very divisive player.

 

[4thline]

I disagree....

Our depth at each position (U25):
Wing (n=17, 14 not full-time NHL)
Marner*
Brown*
Leivo*
Kapanen
Soshnikov
Rychel
Grundstrom
Johnsson
Bracco
Timashov
Lindberg
Korshkov
Chebykin
Kara
Dzierkals
Moore
Bobylev
Engvall

Center (n=7, 5 not full-time NHL):
Matthews*
Nylander*
Aaltonen
Gauthier
Brooks
McGregor
Joshua

Defense (n=14, ~10 not full-time NHL):
Rielly*
Borgman*
Rosen*
Carrick*
Liljegren
Rasanen
Dermott
Nielsen
Valiev
Gordeev
Greenway
Middleton
Mattinen
Lindgren

Goaltending (n=4):
Sparks
Kaskisuo
Woll
Scott


Its clear to me Center and Goaltending is our biggest needs.... Wingers are also the most easiest position to acquire VIA trades if we get desperate as well...

Again, I'm more of a BPA guy... but I hope that BPA is a C, D or G.... quality players of these positions are harder to acquire.

But that's a current list, it disregards the time element and the finite graduation/ choke point at the end of the pipeline. By the time a prospect drafted in 2018 ages out of Junior the list of players still viable as prospects (still on ELC's otherwise they'll be either graduated, gone, or tweeners) shifts to

Wing-
Grundstrom
Korshkov* (depending what age he signs at, and then likely only for a year)
Engvall* (ditto)
Chebykin
Dzierkals
Kara
Bobylev

Centre
McGregor
Joshua* (Ditto)

Defense
Liljegren
Rasanen
Gordeev
Middleton
Mattinen
Greenway
Lindgren

Goalie
Woll
Scott

We need everything, but especially wings and centres if we're going to maintain this level of organizational depth and depthchart robustness.

 

[bobermay]

But that's a current list, it disregards the time element and the finite graduation/ choke point at the end of the pipeline. By the time a prospect drafted in 2018 ages out of Junior the list of players still viable as prospects (still on ELC's otherwise they'll be either graduated, gone, or tweeners) shifts to

Wing-
Grundstrom
Korshkov* (depending what age he signs at, and then likely only for a year)
Engvall* (ditto)
Chebykin
Dzierkals
Kara
Bobylev

Centre
McGregor
Joshua* (Ditto)

Defense
Liljegren
Rasanen
Gordeev
Middleton
Mattinen
Greenway
Lindgren

Goalie
Woll
Scott

We need everything, but especially wings and centres if we're going to maintain this level of organizational depth and depthchart robustness.

The thing is, wingers are easiest to acquire in trade... Defense and Center is a lot more difficult...

If we can get deep with quality defense and centers, we will easily be able to acquire wing depth if we need it.

 

[Menzinger]

High end centers to play them with can mitigate that lack of high end offensive ability somewhat

Agreed that helps mitigate that, but that still doesn't mean I'd take a low ceiling centre at the draft just for the sake of improving organizational centre depth