Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[4thline]

True, I see Hallander more as a checker at the NHL level or a complimentary guy on a higher line. I'm not sure he's like Forsberg and Steen, he seems more reliant on his speed and countering that those 2, who have very strong cycle games.

I don't get Dzierkals vibes at all from Denisenko. Denisenko sees the game at a way higher level, with the ability to see and make passes Dzierkals simply can't. Whenever Denisenko has had decent linemates he looks elite. I feel he's a guy players have trouble reacting to at times and he makes NHL level passes that lower level players can't capitalize on. Its not quite Marner level, but Marner would have similar issues with lesser line-mates adapting to him and just not expecting the passes he makes. No one under-18 is really putting up elite numbers in the MHL this year and everyone I've talked to who has watched the MHL has told me he's getting snake-bitten. At the WJAC and 5 Nations he was a top 5 player at both events. Any time you get a guy with his raw tools combined with hockey-IQ and vision I'm going to gamble on that in the 20's if he's there.

I thought Olofsson and Hallander both looked sub-par at 5 nations and were a significant reason for Sweden's poor showing. So, I'm curious to see how they bounce back at the U-18's.

That may be the case, I'll admit that I don't have near the read on him that you do, he just scares me a little. But if the staff were to sign off on him or to a lesser extent Berggren in the 1st I'd be completely on board with it.

I see Hallander projecting as an F2 in our Driver+F2+Support Top 9 scheme.

I'd be ecstatic with any of the players from my three tiers, with Wise and Kravstov being the only ones I'd cringe a little on passing for the others. Olofsson and Mcleod I do not want.

 

[Silver91]

kapanen hasn't played a ton at LW, a little bit for the marlies. I hope they try him in JVR's spot next season tbh and johnsson get a full season 4th line LW with komarov gone. Korshkov although left handed has never played LW according the the Russian prospect poster who comes in here.

Fair enough. I think a top 9 of:

11-34-29
12-43-16
18-xx-24

would be a solid basis for a line-up (assuming Brown is moved this summer)

Hell, even if we don't make any big trades/signings, you can run a relatively safe lineup with:

11-34-24
12-43-16
18-29-28

As much as people want to draft depth for the team, you don't have to do it specifically to fill a hole that's coming up in the next 14 months. That's where you use prospects already in the system, and depth signings/trades.

Basically, I'm comfortable with whichever way they go, as long as it's who they deem BPA. I don't want to target someone because of a perceived hole when that rarely, if ever, works out well.

 

[firstemperor]

That may be the case, I'll admit that I don't have near the read on him that you do, he just scares me a little. But if the staff were to sign off on him or to a lesser extent Berggren in the 1st I'd be completely on board with it.

I see Hallander projecting as an F2 in our Driver+F2+Support Top 9 scheme.

I'd be ecstatic with any of the players from my three tiers, with Wise and Kravstov being the only ones I'd cringe a little on passing for the others. Olofsson and Mcleod I do not want.

I can see why some people would really like Hallander (I was a proponent of him with one of our 2nd's as a sleeper) but with a late 1st, seems like a bit of a reach. Perhaps not a huge reach but you'd have to be really high on him to rationalize the selection, which I could see. He's got a good chance of being an NHL'er, relatively speaking (as compared to prospects around him) but I'm not sure his ceiling is all that high. He looked more like a utility, middle 6 guy than top 6 guy at 5 nations. I think, depending on the period you watched, you could see shades of Pasta in there but then you revisit that thought when you see his stat line and the next couple of games. He's a smooth skater though and takes nice long strides to generate separation.

Wise I'm not sure about. There's a lot of novelty with him, kind of like Barzal in his draft year to a lesser extent....a guy who was projected as a possible ~top 5 guy very early on who gets passed closer to his draft year, and probably doesn't meet sky-high expectation. I'm not sure about him though. He's been producing more lately but as a smaller player, I wasn't that impressed with his overall ability, including his skating. I'm alright picking smaller players with a ton of skill but the road is tougher for them. I was extremely high on Point in his draft year in particular because he was flat out dominant at junior but his skating was near top of the class, particularly his ability through the neutral zone. I haven't seen that as much with Wise. I'm probably picking at straws a bit with a pick in the 20's though. For comparison, I thought a guy like say, Farabee showed a bunch of tools and screamed NHL projection. Same with Kotkaniemi. Farabee is a safer choice if the draft started today, Kotkaniemi is more of a home-run swing- could be a fly-out or you could find a gap and get a double.

Denisenko was great at five nations. Very dynamic and toolsy. Can't speak at all about his MHL play but his playstyle is very similar to Gusev/Oshie which I've mentioned in the past. My only criticism I could have of his, if there was one, is that he can be a bit puck dominant/bit of a puck-hound at times, always looking to jump into a pond hockey type of game. I think you overlook those things, multiple times over, at this level though.

Kravstov....can't speak about him either. Seems intriguing enough with his play ending the year. Not sure if he's more Kuzy/Tarasenko or more Scherbak.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Fair enough. I think a top 9 of:

11-34-29
12-43-16
18-xx-24

would be a solid basis for a line-up (assuming Brown is moved this summer)

Hell, even if we don't make any big trades/signings, you can run a relatively safe lineup with:

11-34-24
12-43-16
18-29-28

As much as people want to draft depth for the team, you don't have to do it specifically to fill a hole that's coming up in the next 14 months. That's where you use prospects already in the system, and depth signings/trades.

Basically, I'm comfortable with whichever way they go, as long as it's who they deem BPA. I don't want to target someone because of a perceived hole when that rarely, if ever, works out well.

Wait why would Brown be moved this summer?

 

[Silver91]

Wait why would Brown be moved this summer?

Redundancy. If we can get value for him and replace him with Kapanen in the Top 9, I'm all for it. Especially if it's as part of a move to bring in a stronger RD. I like him, and I know he bleeds blue, but he is replaceable and you can't keep everyone forever.

 

[93LEAFS]

Some very interesting tweets about Denisenko, that may play in our favor.





Given we have one of the larger scouting presence in Russia, the U-18's is less important for us than certain teams with limited resources there.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Redundancy. If we can get value for him and replace him with Kapanen in the Top 9, I'm all for it. Especially if it's as part of a move to bring in a stronger RD. I like him, and I know he bleeds blue, but he is replaceable and you can't keep everyone forever.

No you can't that's why JVR, Bozak, Komarov are likely out the door, although maybe 1 out of 3 comes back.

Kapenan is the Komarov replacement so unless you believe Johnsson can replace Brown, trading Brown is not smart

 

[Morgs]

No you can't that's why JVR, Bozak, Komarov are likely out the door, although maybe 1 out of 3 comes back.

Kapenan is the Komarov replacement so unless you believe Johnsson can replace Brown, trading Brown trading Brown is not smart

Brown is a fringe 3rd line player, and an above average penalty killer.

As much as he's a fan favourite, he's not vital to this team going forward and if we can get value that helps our team now (and the future) you take it.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Brown is a fringe 3rd line player, and an above average penalty killer.

As much as he's a fan favourite, he's not vital to this team going forward and if we can get value that helps our team now (and the future) you take it.

I don't know I think you need to keep as much good cheap depth as you can, and Brown qualifies at 2.1 million for 2 more years.

in 2 years depending on hid contract demands maybe you look at it.

Now is not the time.

 

[dangomon]

I don't know I think you need to keep as much good cheap depth as you can, and Brown qualifies at 2.1 million for 2 more years.

in 2 years depending on hid contract demands maybe you look at it.

Now is not the time.

Honestly, I'd keep a guy like Brown but it depends what another team offers. His value lies in his contract, and if another team needs that cap relief for a good player, and offers a decent trade, I would think the Leafs might have to do it.

 

[Walshy7]

No you can't that's why JVR, Bozak, Komarov are likely out the door, although maybe 1 out of 3 comes back.

Kapenan is the Komarov replacement so unless you believe Johnsson can replace Brown, trading Brown is not smart

Kapanen has very little experience at LW and is a RW predominately. I hope we keep brown and kapanen gets a shot on a scoring line even if it is LW. Brown is a very tradeable piece, kapanen can essentially do his job we have to see if he can translate his offence to the NHL to match Brown's last season point totals (although Brown got 28 points this year) brown is basically a 30 point forward with above average pk abilities he would be expendable in the right deal of course. If he is worth a 2nd or 3rd keep him, but if he is in a package for a D or C upgrade bye bye brown

 

[Silver91]

No you can't that's why JVR, Bozak, Komarov are likely out the door, although maybe 1 out of 3 comes back.

Kapenan is the Komarov replacement so unless you believe Johnsson can replace Brown, trading Brown is not smart

I look at it as an aggregate. If we can upgrade Bozak to someone like Stastny (or even keep Bozak I guess), I look at Kapanen+Johnsson as more valuable, together, than JVR and Komarov, and Leivo as similar value if they're both being deployed on the 4th line, possibly more valuable as Leivo is a better PP player, and Brown wouldn't be necessary for PKing with Hyman/Kapanen/Johnsson/Marleau/4th line C/Stastny?/maybe Matthews

Personally, I think Johnsson will be one of our more valuable forwards next season, after the top 4 guys, with his versatility.

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Stastny/Bozak-Kapanen
Leivo-UFA/Aaltonen-UFA/Prospect

PP1: Matthews-Nylander-Leivo-Johnsson-Rielly
PP2: Stastny/Bozak-Kadri-Marner-Marleau/Kapanen-Gardiner

PK1: Hyman-Kapanen
PK2: Marleau/Stastny/Matthews-Johnsson

Either way, this is getting way off topic lol. Basically, just don't draft for NHL needs that are coming up in the next year or 2. Anyone we draft is extremely unlikely to be ready by that point, and who knows what our actual needs will be by then.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I look at it as an aggregate. If we can upgrade Bozak to someone like Stastny (or even keep Bozak I guess), I look at Kapanen+Johnsson as more valuable, together, than JVR and Komarov, and Leivo as similar value if they're both being deployed on the 4th line, possibly more valuable as Leivo is a better PP player, and Brown wouldn't be necessary for PKing with Hyman/Kapanen/Johnsson/Marleau/4th line C/Stastny?/maybe Matthews

Personally, I think Johnsson will be one of our more valuable forwards next season, after the top 4 guys, with his versatility.

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Stastny/Bozak-Kapanen
Leivo-UFA/Aaltonen-UFA/Prospect

PP1: Matthews-Nylander-Leivo-Johnsson-Rielly
PP2: Stastny/Bozak-Kadri-Marner-Marleau/Kapanen-Gardiner

PK1: Hyman-Kapanen
PK2: Marleau/Stastny/Matthews-Johnsson

Either way, this is getting way off topic lol. Basically, just don't draft for NHL needs that are coming up in the next year or 2. Anyone we draft is extremely unlikely to be ready by that point, and who knows what our actual needs will be by then.

I don't think there is any chance you see Leivo play full time for Leafs

 

[Silver91]

I don't think there is any chance you see Leivo play full time for Leafs

I can see why that is the thought, and wouldn't be surprised if Leivo is moved this summer either. But I think part of it is that the way the team has been configured, there's no way he'd get in the lineup over guys like Brown/Kapanen. Both are PK guys who are relied upon. Even when Leo went down, Johnsson has the ability to PK, and Babcock wanted to see what he had in him, in case he would be needed in the playoffs. I'm not saying Leivo isn't further down the pecking order than Brown, but if we have enough legit options, and we can get value for Brown, Leivo would be more valuable to the team than Brown.

 

[93LEAFS]

I look at it as an aggregate. If we can upgrade Bozak to someone like Stastny (or even keep Bozak I guess), I look at Kapanen+Johnsson as more valuable, together, than JVR and Komarov, and Leivo as similar value if they're both being deployed on the 4th line, possibly more valuable as Leivo is a better PP player, and Brown wouldn't be necessary for PKing with Hyman/Kapanen/Johnsson/Marleau/4th line C/Stastny?/maybe Matthews

Personally, I think Johnsson will be one of our more valuable forwards next season, after the top 4 guys, with his versatility.

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Stastny/Bozak-Kapanen
Leivo-UFA/Aaltonen-UFA/Prospect

PP1: Matthews-Nylander-Leivo-Johnsson-Rielly
PP2: Stastny/Bozak-Kadri-Marner-Marleau/Kapanen-Gardiner

PK1: Hyman-Kapanen
PK2: Marleau/Stastny/Matthews-Johnsson

Either way, this is getting way off topic lol. Basically, just don't draft for NHL needs that are coming up in the next year or 2. Anyone we draft is extremely unlikely to be ready by that point, and who knows what our actual needs will be by then.

We aren't going to sign Stasny and I doubt we re-up Bozak. The two things I could see potentially happening are one, we move Willy there full-time or we sign a guy trying to rebound such as Spezza or even a vet for one year like Thornton.

I think its also pretty evident that the only reason Leivo is still here is because management likes him but Babcock has no interest in playing him.

 

[4thline]

@firstemperor the lower scale Barzal is exactly how to do describe what I think about Wise, and why I'd cringe on passing in the late 20's. Barzal was a guy I would have felt fine with at 4, and would have liked to drop back to 7-8 to get who was left of him/Marner/Provo/Hanifin.

I don't see the same upside in Wise, but certainly the same kind of "jilted lover" underrating from the scouting community that feel he hasn't lived up to expectations. Farabee and Kotkaniemi are gone top 10-15, I don't think 15-20 picks separation is justified there

 

[Menzinger]

I just wouldn’t get too attached to any positional need here. Odds are a guy taken in the mid to late 20s is 4 years away from the NHL.

Honestly, even a high-skilled offensive winger might be a team need for the Leafs by then.

 

[supermann_98]

For the Kravtsov fans.

Sign me up

 

[93LEAFS]

I can see why some people would really like Hallander (I was a proponent of him with one of our 2nd's as a sleeper) but with a late 1st, seems like a bit of a reach. Perhaps not a huge reach but you'd have to be really high on him to rationalize the selection, which I could see. He's got a good chance of being an NHL'er, relatively speaking (as compared to prospects around him) but I'm not sure his ceiling is all that high. He looked more like a utility, middle 6 guy than top 6 guy at 5 nations. I think, depending on the period you watched, you could see shades of Pasta in there but then you revisit that thought when you see his stat line and the next couple of games. He's a smooth skater though and takes nice long strides to generate separation.

Wise I'm not sure about. There's a lot of novelty with him, kind of like Barzal in his draft year to a lesser extent....a guy who was projected as a possible ~top 5 guy very early on who gets passed closer to his draft year, and probably doesn't meet sky-high expectation. I'm not sure about him though. He's been producing more lately but as a smaller player, I wasn't that impressed with his overall ability, including his skating. I'm alright picking smaller players with a ton of skill but the road is tougher for them. I was extremely high on Point in his draft year in particular because he was flat out dominant at junior but his skating was near top of the class, particularly his ability through the neutral zone. I haven't seen that as much with Wise. I'm probably picking at straws a bit with a pick in the 20's though. For comparison, I thought a guy like say, Farabee showed a bunch of tools and screamed NHL projection. Same with Kotkaniemi. Farabee is a safer choice if the draft started today, Kotkaniemi is more of a home-run swing- could be a fly-out or you could find a gap and get a double.

Denisenko was great at five nations. Very dynamic and toolsy. Can't speak at all about his MHL play but his playstyle is very similar to Gusev/Oshie which I've mentioned in the past. My only criticism I could have of his, if there was one, is that he can be a bit puck dominant/bit of a puck-hound at times, always looking to jump into a pond hockey type of game. I think you overlook those things, multiple times over, at this level though.

Kravstov....can't speak about him either. Seems intriguing enough with his play ending the year. Not sure if he's more Kuzy/Tarasenko or more Scherbak.

I don't know what to make of Wise at this point, and I'm holding off having a strong opinion on him until the U-18's. I thought he was good at 5 Nations but notably behind Denisenko, Wahlstrom, Svechnikov, Hughes and Farabee in my eyes.

I think the big difference between Wise and Farabee is that Farabee is a much easier projection. You can see how his game is going to carry over. He's also played at a high-level for a much longer period of time. Wise, I'm not sure how dynamic he is (he's a bit of a man-child for his level, not very tall but stocky as hell) and what the liklihood of him sticking at center as he progresses. Farabee is a guy I can see turning into Zach Parise for the right team. Not the biggest guy, but works his ass off every shift, can play in all situations and will crash the net. He's also a high-character kid by all accounts.

I think Wise is currently in that 30-40 range, and I'd take the 2 Russians and the USNTDP defenders over him. Now, I would take Wise over almost all the OHL centers outside of maybe Hayton. I think he's a better prospect than guys like Akil Thomas and Ryan McLeod right now who both get talked about in the late 20's pretty often.

 

[93LEAFS]

@firstemperor the lower scale Barzal is exactly how to do describe what I think about Wise, and why I'd cringe on passing in the late 20's. Barzal was a guy I would have felt fine with at 4, and would have liked to drop back to 7-8 to get who was left of him/Marner/Provo/Hanifin.

I don't see the same upside in Wise, but certainly the same kind of "jilted lover" underrating from the scouting community that feel he hasn't lived up to expectations. Farabee and Kotkaniemi are gone top 10-15, I don't think 15-20 picks separation is justified there

I find those kids who are highly ranked but fall are just as hit and miss as everyone else. For every Barzal there's an Angelo Esposito. People were mad about Chychrun a year ago, but as of today, guys like Keller, PLD, McAvoy, Sergachev are looking like the better picks and a guy who fell down who was highly hyped like Julian Gauthier is looking pretty questionable.

 

[4thline]

I find those kids who are highly ranked but fall are just as hit and miss as everyone else. For every Barzal there's an Angelo Esposito. People were mad about Chychrun a year ago, but as of today, guys like Keller, PLD, McAvoy, Sergachev are looking like the better picks and a guy who fell down who was highly hyped like Julian Gauthier is looking pretty questionable.

I think the thing that separates Wise from those types of fallers is that the "fall" came pre draft year. He's (IMO) had a very strong draft year post injury, the kind of year that were he more of a nobody would have had him rocketing up lists. I was only half joking with the "jilted lover" quip, I find that scouts have a certain "fool me once..." aversion to back tracking on a guy that they've already had a major shift on.

Now, I would take Wise over almost all the OHL centers outside of maybe Hayton. I think he's a better prospect than guys like Akil Thomas and Ryan McLeod right now who both get talked about in the late 20's pretty often.

That's pretty much exactly where I stand.

Take this mock (with the caveat I think Smith is too low), inject Kravstov with Farabee, Wise with Hayton and Kotkaniemi add Hallander with Kaut and Kupari then tier 2 and 3 in beforeLundestrom/ Olofsson, and you pretty much get the way I see the top end of the draft. At 25 I hope that one of my listed guys is available.
My DraftSite - 2018 NHL Mock Draft - Jesse_Henry - DraftSite.com

 

[93LEAFS]

I think the thing that separates Wise from those types of fallers is that the "fall" came pre draft year. He's (IMO) had a very strong draft year post injury, the kind of year that were he more of a nobody would have had him rocketing up lists. I was only half joking with the "jilted lover" quip, I find that scouts have a certain "fool me once..." aversion to back tracking on a guy that they've already had a major shift on.

That's pretty much exactly where I stand.

Take this mock (with the caveat I think Smith is too low), inject Kravstov with Farabee, Wise with Hayton, add Hallander with the 4 Europeans (behind the Finns, ahead of Lundestrom), then tier 2 and 3 in before Olofsson, and you pretty much get the way I see the draft. At 25 I hope that one of my listed guys is available.
My DraftSite - 2018 NHL Mock Draft - Jesse_Henry - DraftSite.com

I can't believe where he has Miller or M. Samuelsson. The other thing I'd point out is, people are going to be surprised at where Jay O'Brien is going to go. Scouts were flocking to see him at the end of the year.

 

[4thline]

I can't believe where he has Miller or M. Samuelsson. The other thing I'd point out is, people are going to be surprised at where Jay O'Brien is going to go. Scouts were flocking to see him at the end of the year.

Lol that's crazy. To be honest didn't look that far, just grabbed something generic and linkable that had the "right"people off of the board @ 12 or so to cut the corner and start slotting my tiers in the teens.
Basically assuming

Dahlin/Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk/Boqvist/Dobson/Wahlstrom/Bouchard/Hughes/Veleno/Wilde/Farabee/Smith are off the board in what ever order

I'd go
Kravtsov 14
Kotkaniemi/Wise/Hayton 15-17
Kupari/Kaut/Hallander 18-20
Samuelsson/Miller 21-22
Lundqvist/Denisenko/Berggren/Dellandrea/Woo 23-27

 

[Kiwi]

I think the thing that separates Wise from those types of fallers is that the "fall" came pre draft year. He's (IMO) had a very strong draft year post injury, the kind of year that were he more of a nobody would have had him rocketing up lists. I was only half joking with the "jilted lover" quip, I find that scouts have a certain "fool me once..." aversion to back tracking on a guy that they've already had a major shift on.

That's pretty much exactly where I stand.

Take this mock (with the caveat I think Smith is too low), inject Kravstov with Farabee, Wise with Hayton and Kotkaniemi add Hallander with Kaut and Kupari then tier 2 and 3 in beforeLundestrom/ Olofsson, and you pretty much get the way I see the draft. At 25 I hope that one of my listed guys is available.
My DraftSite - 2018 NHL Mock Draft - Jesse_Henry - DraftSite.com

Out of the mock drafts I've seen in can't say I'm a fan of that one

As a Miller fan and someone who would pick him in the mid 20's if neither Russian winger is still on the board i cant see how he falls into the 60's

 

[Dzonna]

Wouldn't mind best Centre available