Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft

[FireBird71]

Please use our second 1st on this kid.

Probably first 2nd but he's a beast and will be even better next season

 

[jkutswings]

While I don't completely agree with the rankings, here is the March edition of The Hockey Writers' Top 31 (with a paragraph on each of several top 10 guys):

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-draft-ranking-march-2018/

Looks like Bouchard's stock is continuing to rise, particularly on the defensive side. I'm really liking how this kid is shaping up, if Detroit ends up in the 5-8 range.

 

[Redder Winger]

While I don't completely agree with the rankings, here is the March edition of The Hockey Writers' Top 31 (with a paragraph on each of several top 10 guys):

2018 NHL Draft Ranking: March's Top 31 Prospects

Looks like Bouchard's stock is continuing to rise, particularly on the defensive side. I'm really liking how this kid is shaping up, if Detroit ends up in the 5-8 range.

Bouchard makes me nervous. Great stats, but I'm not reading much about his abilities.

 

[Frk It]

Dahlin will be like a Scott Niedermayer but with more flash, Boqvist and Bouchard can be a very good top pairing guy, like a Kronwall or Rafalski, and Dobson ends up settling in as a great #3, having all the tools to eat steady minutes, but not quite that extra gear for the really big moments of NHL top pair duty.

On the prospect board I have seen people float out John Carlson as a comp for Bouchard, and Alex Pieterangelo as a comparison for Dobson. I thought those were both pretty good. I don't see any reason Dobson can't be a big minute guy.

Bouchard makes me nervous. Great stats, but I'm not reading much about his abilities.

Shot is his biggest standout ability. Pretty good overall offensively.

 

[njx9]

Yes, we are reasonably good at drafting wingers outside of the first round. The wingers we are finding are not, however, elite wingers. There is still a huge difference between very good and elite. This board frequently miscasts good for elite and gets upset when good doesn't perform as elite. Most days I agree with your thinking. Yes, if we want a number one defensemen, we need to go out and draft a number one defensemen. I am, however, willing to break from this convention when presented with the opportunity to acquire an elite winger. This team will not be rebuilt overnight.

The more important question is do you think Bouchard or Dobson are 1Ds?

I think if this team had a 1C or any D-men who could move the puck at all, Nyquist might not've regressed from his 2013 pace so much (though he still turned into a deferral machine any time he was on the ice with Dats or Z, so maybe/probably I'm wrong). But that's a different discussion. I think an elite C can make good wingers look like great wingers, and I don't believe that the reverse is true at all.

On Bouchard/Dobson, I honestly don't know. I'm awful at rating Ds, and even moreso a few months before the draft. That said, I'd still argue that it's better to trade down if Svech is there (and if possible, [though if he's that elite, someone should want him]), take a D, and use whatever value you gain in the move to address the D or C again. Even if jkuts is right about Dobson's relative value, I think he's a much smarter pick for this team.

Sorry for seemingly dodging your question - I can try to answer it better in May.

 

[Frk It]

I think an elite C can make good wingers look like great wingers, and I don't believe that the reverse is true at all.

If you want to talk about linemates in general, Patrick Kane and Johnny Gaudreau give whoever they play with a gigantic boost.

 

[njx9]

If you want to talk about linemates in general, Patrick Kane and Johnny Gaudreau give whoever they play with a gigantic boost.

Doesn't Kane play with Toews/Saad or Panarin last year? Panarin has pretty close numbers (.9 to .83 ppg) in CBJ. I think Saad's numbers are even worse, this year (and Kane's, while still outstanding, are lower).

I don't know enough about the Flames to say either way, and I don't think he's lost any primary linemates that offer a comparison (like Panarin/Saad), but it seems like Monahan's #s have sat right around 60 and Bennett's numbers are still poor, in spite of playing with Gaudreau 25% of the time (by Frozen Pool's numbers).

I don't want to sidetrack the draft thread, but it just doesn't seem like even the elite wingers are really pushing their linemates that much. And without Duncan Keith, does Kane have the ability to push that team to a single Cup, let alone multiple?

 

[drwings40]

Bouchard makes me nervous. Great stats, but I'm not reading much about his abilities.

That's how I feel about Hayton in 5-8 range.

 

[Frk It]

Doesn't Kane play with Toews/Saad or Panarin last year? Panarin has pretty close numbers (.9 to .83 ppg) in CBJ. I think Saad's numbers are even worse, this year (and Kane's, while still outstanding, are lower).

I don't know enough about the Flames to say either way, and I don't think he's lost any primary linemates that offer a comparison (like Panarin/Saad), but it seems like Monahan's #s have sat right around 60 and Bennett's numbers are still poor, in spite of playing with Gaudreau 25% of the time (by Frozen Pool's numbers).

I don't want to sidetrack the draft thread, but it just doesn't seem like even the elite wingers are really pushing their linemates that much. And without Duncan Keith, does Kane have the ability to push that team to a single Cup, let alone multiple?

Kane played mostly with Anismov and Panarin last year. Has played mostly with Anisimov and Schmaltz this year.

I've seen it by a bunch of analytics folks that these two give a huge boost to who they play with. I can try and dig for that if you want.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Bouchard makes me nervous. Great stats, but I'm not reading much about his abilities.

He's a great passer with a solid shot. Very high hockey IQ. Good hands. Excellent PP quarterback. Decent defensively, but needs to keep working at it. Good enough skater, but I've seen him criticized a little for his straight-line top speed. The biggest knock on him is that he looks fairly passive on the ice. He's not a high intensity guy. Critics say he lacks compete level. Supporters say he's playing 30 min a night and conserving his energy.

 

[njx9]

Kane played mostly with Anismov and Panarin last year. Has played mostly with Anisimov and Schmaltz this year.

I've seen it by a bunch of analytics folks that these two give a huge boost to who they play with. I can try and dig for that if you want.

If it's easy, I'd love to look. It doesn't square with my impressions, which means it's likely a learning opportunity for me. Might even change my mind on drafting Ws.

 

[Frk It]

If it's easy, I'd love to look. It doesn't square with my impressions, which means it's likely a learning opportunity for me. Might even change my mind on drafting Ws.

I'm pretty sure if you ask any Flames fan, they would say Monahan benefits more from Gaudreau than the other way around.

But here is an article that touches on it:

This season, Gaudreau's pure offensive numbers have greatly exceeded Monahan's. Gaudreau has a 16-point lead on Monahan in the same number of games. Gaudreau has overtaken Monahan in average ice time, topping 20 minutes per game. Gaudreau's 5-on-5 score-adjusted Corsi is 1.72 percent higher than the team average, whereas Monahan's is 0.26 percent below average. And the Corsi numbers with and without each other (a stat known as WOWY, or "with or without you," U2 fans) are even more pronounced this time. Together 5-on-5 this season, they produce a mark of 49.9. Gaudreau without Monahan: 47.2. Monahan without Gaudreau: a hideous 36.2 percent. For perspective, the Colorado Avalanche have the league's worst 5-on-5 team Corsi this season at 44.1 percent.

Sean Monahan is worth less than Johnny Gaudreau. But here's why they'll get the same contract | The Hockey News

 

[Nut Upstrom]

While I don't completely agree with the rankings, here is the March edition of The Hockey Writers' Top 31 (with a paragraph on each of several top 10 guys):

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-draft-ranking-march-2018/

Looks like Bouchard's stock is continuing to rise, particularly on the defensive side. I'm really liking how this kid is shaping up, if Detroit ends up in the 5-8 range.

Thanks for posting this, it was an educational read. A question to those of you who follow/watch/evaluate the prospects more than I do, what is up with Ty Smith at 20? I thought he was solidly in the 9-10 range and I was keen on landing him if we picked at the end of the top 10. Would love to hear your thoughts on him dropping down to 20 or even lower. It's not realistic to think we might have a chance to land him with our second 1st rounder, is it?

 

[Frk It]

Thanks for posting this, it was an educational read. A question to those of you who follow/watch/evaluate the prospects more than I do, what is up with Ty Smith at 20? I thought he was solidly in the 9-10 range and I was keen on landing him if we picked at the end of the top 10. Would love to hear your thoughts on him dropping down to 20 or even lower. It's not realistic to think we might have a chance to land him with our second 1st rounder, is it?

In my opinion, no. Rankings are subjective and will always vary to a degree. But your best bet to get a feel for what teams think is to look at Bob Mckenzie's rankings, since they are based on input from actual NHL scouts as opposed to rankings that are the opinions of scouting services.

In Bob's January rankings Ty was ranked #11. He has had 26 pts in 16 games since then.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

In my opinion, no. Rankings are subjective and will always vary to a degree. But your best bet to get a feel for what teams think is to look at Bob Mckenzie's rankings, since they are based on input from actual NHL scouts as opposed to rankings that are the opinions of scouting services.

In Bob's January rankings Ty was ranked #11.

11 Seems more of what I've been hearing/reading, so I'm assuming 20 seems a tad too high to you also?
Thanks Frk It, I didn't know that about the McKenzie rankings, that should be very insightful to look at. I'm assuming that can be found on TSN's sight... I'll dig it up.

 

[Frk It]

11 Seems more of what I've been hearing/reading, so I'm assuming 20 seems a tad too high to you also?
Thanks Frk It, I didn't know that about the McKenzie rankings, that should be very insightful to look at. I'm assuming that can be found on TSN's sight... I'll dig it up.

Yeah, he does rankings 3x a year. Pre-season in Sept, Mid-season in Jan, and then a Final ranking in June. I always look forward to them.

He also has a podcast where he will explain each player and ranking a bit, you could check that out too.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Let's watch some highlight videos. Apologies for this guy's taste in music. I had to mute the Meatloaf song.



Dobson seems to me like the kind of guy Nashville drafts and we wish we had. He's just so... projectable? I can completely see how he would be a good NHL defenseman.



Bouchard is a more polished offensive player. He makes scoring as a defenseman look incredibly easy.



Boqvist's skating/stickhandling combination is nuts. But he can do other stuff, too.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Quinn Hughes is an unbelievable puckmover. His skating is just... something else.



This video isn't the best, but you can see a little bit of Ty Smith's offensive game. He's not as dynamic as the other guys, but he's pretty damn productive.

 

[SirloinUB]

In Bob's January rankings Ty was ranked #11. He has had 26 pts in 16 games since then.

He is a great skater and an excellent passer. I don't love his shot, but he does a good job of getting it through the open lanes. He had a 7 point game the other week. This kid just knows how to create offence.

I'd be thrilled if we landed him and would hope we trade up if he slides on draft day. Not that I expect him to slip, but I definitely think he is flying under the radar compared to these other defencemen.

 

[waltdetroit]

Dobber rankings from March 3with text on risers & fallers

2018 NHL Draft Rankings: February Edition

 

[TheMule93]

As long as we pick in the top 7 I'll be happy

 

[jkutswings]

Dobber rankings from March 3with text on risers & fallers

2018 NHL Draft Rankings: February Edition

Thanks for posting this! At the moment, I'd be thrilled to come away with one of Boqvist/Bouchard/Dobson, then either another defenseman (maybe Woo) or a center (maybe Dellandrea) with the pick from Vegas.

 

[waltdetroit]

It would be our luck to get a top 4 pick winger (unless Dahlin) then a center with the 2nd 1st

 

[TheMule93]

Wright said they're focusing on skilled forwards this draft, so that prospect ranking probably looks very similar to Detroits board

 

[RedWingzz]

As long as we pick in the top 7 I'll be happy

I think top 10 is safe.

You got Dahlin, then the 2 skilled forwards, then the 5 D and Wahlstrom/Tkachuk. I honestly won't compain if we end up with any of the 10.

If Veleno is still on the board around 18/19, I would try to move up to grab him. I'd offer:
-Vegas 1st rounder
-Our 2nd rounder
-A 3rd rounder

I don't know/think that's enough, but I'd at least try to see if I could package some of our picks to grab Veleno if he slides a bit.