2018 NHL Draft Discussion

[hbk]

Ah. Last season stuff I can’t watch. I didn’t see what you saw at the U20 WJC. Of course I don’t expect a draft eligible forward to dominate games in a 19 year old tourney. Or did you mean at the U18 tourney?

He played in all key situations in key games while being a dominant physical presence and putting up impressive point totals at this past world Juniors. How did you miss that?

 

[hbk]

Someone brought up in Brady’s prospect thread that everyone thinks middlestadt is going to be a world beater but he and brady have about the same amount of points. Just an interesting perspective.

Middlestadt may struggle as he's likely starting on 3rd line with Buffalo if he signs this summer. He may not sign at all (go UFA route) unless Buff makes some room for him in a top 6 capacity. With O'Reilly, Reinhart, and Eichel Buff needs to make a trade to improve their D.

 

[Heldig]

He played in all key situations in key games while being a dominant physical presence and putting up impressive point totals at this past world Juniors. How did you miss that?

I agree. I thought Tkachuk was fantastic at the WJCs.

I am torn right now. The Coyotes need a dynamic scorer ala Svechnikov but also need a bull power forward. And then there is the potential of the dominant 2 way RHD in Bouchard.

 

[Mosby]

Now may be a good time for Buff to sell high on Reinhart as he appears to have gotten it together.

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

Matthew pretty heavily outproduced Brady in their draft -1 season, something to keep in mind. I like both CHL wingers quite a bit more than him personally.

Buchard is a really interesting prospect though, he's putting up some pretty unprecedented numbers, who's the last guy to do something like what he's doing, Ryan Ellis?

 

[hbk]

Matthew pretty heavily outproduced Brady in their draft -1 season, something to keep in mind. I like both CHL wingers quite a bit more than him personally.

Buchard is a really interesting prospect though, he's putting up some pretty unprecedented numbers, who's the last guy to do something like what he's doing, Ryan Ellis?

Mathew was also playing on a powerhouse London Knights team where he skated alongside Marner and Dvorak on likely the best line in junior hockey.

Compare Brady's freshmen stats to A prospect Jordon Greenway who plays on BU or Blake Wheeler who didn't start in NCAA for a full year after he was drafted. NCAA stats are deflated especially for freshmen as they play typically limited minutes (don't beLieve this was the case here with Brady who is so good and physically mature that he forces the coaches hand to play him more than he likely would normally) against D and G's who are as old as 23 (and much more physically mature) versus the CHL where you can rack up points against lines composed of 16 year old kids. The league's are not exactly apples to apples; especially when you consider the depth of that London Knights squad.

 

[rt]

I'll have to re-watch the US WJC games. I've seen most twice and Brady struck me as a very good draft eligible in the tourney, and a guy who excelled in his role. I didn't notice dominance or him taking things over. I'll keep a keener eye when I rewatch next.

 

[hbk]

This might also be of interest.

 

[Mosby]

Svech suspended 4 games:

Top NHL Draft prospect Andrei Svechnikov suspended four OHL games - Sportsnet.ca

 

[ParisSaintGermain]

I just hope we have a top 4 pick, all those expected top 4 guys are appealing to me one way or another.

Dahlin is the golden ticket.

Svech is the modern big body who can score at ease, skates like the wind and has an edge

Zadina is the surgeon who will be there where it matters; happy to be the hero, happy to be the supporting cast

Tkachuk is a leader, will do what it takes to get the win. Also got all the tools to get there.

We can do with any of these four guys.

 

[Matias Maccete]

I just hope we have a top 4 pick, all those expected top 4 guys are appealing to me one way or another.

Dahlin is the golden ticket.

Svech is the modern big body who can score at ease, skates like the wind and has an edge

Zadina is the surgeon who will be there where it matters; happy to be the hero, happy to be the supporting cast

Tkachuk is a leader, will do what it takes to get the win. Also got all the tools to get there.

We can do with any of these four guys.

Picking 5th confirmed.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

c'mon Wahlstrom is 4th, Tkachuk is 5th which is why we will be picking 6th or worse. Hockey the Coyote way. Suck early, get a little better but not better to get our of the cellar and then completely blow any chance at the lottery by passing 4 teams late. You can pretty much bet that we will pass Vancouver, Detroit, Ottawa and Canadiens...and then pick 8th after 2 teams above us win the lottery.

<that being said, I love the fact we are showing the type of hockey they can play when they are playing well and even though it's going to ruin the lottery for us, I'm all for winning now, because it's way more fun watching the team win than lose>

 

[lanky]

Assuming we finish 3rd worst in the standings, we have a 43.3% chance of picking top 4. More likely to pick 5th or 6th.

2018 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

 

[rt]

I just hope we have a top 4 pick, all those expected top 4 guys are appealing to me one way or another.

Dahlin is the golden ticket.

Svech is the modern big body who can score at ease, skates like the wind and has an edge

Zadina is the surgeon who will be there where it matters; happy to be the hero, happy to be the supporting cast

Tkachuk is a leader, will do what it takes to get the win. Also got all the tools to get there.

We can do with any of these four guys.

Picking 5th confirmed.

c'mon Wahlstrom is 4th, Tkachuk is 5th which is why we will be picking 6th or worse. Hockey the Coyote way. Suck early, get a little better but not better to get our of the cellar and then completely blow any chance at the lottery by passing 4 teams late. You can pretty much bet that we will pass Vancouver, Detroit, Ottawa and Canadiens...and then pick 8th after 2 teams above us win the lottery.

<that being said, I love the fact we are showing the type of hockey they can play when they are playing well and even though it's going to ruin the lottery for us, I'm all for winning now, because it's way more fun watching the team win than lose>

Dahlin > Big Gap > Svechnikov > Big Gap > Zadina > Big Gap > Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, Boqvist, Hughes, Dobson, Bouchard, Smith, Kotkaniemi, Denisenko all jumbled up in a pick pile at the bottom of a grab bag.

I trust our scouts and I have no personal preference on the players I listed between 4-12 above. If Chayka says our scouts love any one of those guys enough to have them ranked 4th overall that's good enough for me.

 

[rt]

This might also be of interest.

I should reiterate that I think Tkachuk is a great prospect and I'd be thrilled to draft him 4th overall. I just have him behind the top three, and not head and shoulders above anyone in that next tier. I'm not more or less excited about the prospect of drafting Tkachuk versus Wahlstrom or Bouchard, etc. I'd be thrilled with Tkachuk or any of those other kids at 4th. I'm commenting too much about this draft, as I'm clearly getting more and more ignorant about prospects every year. At least on the micro level. I feel like I've developed at least a little tough of macro wisdom. Which really isn't useful in ranking specific kids within tiers. Haha.

Hell, if Chayka and staff have him ranked 2nd, I can live with it. They picked up Keller and Chychrun in the same damn draft two years ago. If they tell me that Tkachuk is better than Svechnikov or Zadina, I'm not going to argue. I'm just going to get really excited about Tkachuk.

 

[ParisSaintGermain]

Hell, if Chayka and staff have him ranked 2nd, I can live with it. They picked up Keller and Chychrun in the same damn draft two years ago. If they tell me that Tkachuk is better than Svechnikov or Zadina, I'm not going to argue. I'm just going to get really excited about Tkachuk.

And this is why I no longer worry about missing a player by one pick whatever the draft lottery decides. I feel that Bernhardt, his team and Chayka are capable of picking a good player irrelevant of the position of the pick. This is a truly a major shift.

 

[hbk]

I think our lists look pretty similar. I have Svechnikov at 2. Zadina at 3 but I'm wavering. Tkachuk at 4. That means im pretty much the same as everyone else which has me questioning everything. I could see Tkachuk going at 2 if someone is that enthralled with his skill set.

 

[Grimes]

This draft is so similar to 2017.

Matthews = Dahlin
Laine > svech (but time will tell by how much)
Zadina = Poolparty (at least in sure fire number three spot)
Tkachuk = Tkachuk
Another 4 great defenders that no one can figure out the order of (Chychrun, Joulevi, Serg, McAvoy / Boqvist, Bouchard, Dobson, Hughes)
Then the late rising U.S darkhorse (Keller - Wahlstrom)

Honestly I will be happy with whoever we pick and am glad it will be top 7

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

Mathew was also playing on a powerhouse London Knights team where he skated alongside Marner and Dvorak on likely the best line in junior hockey.

Compare Brady's freshmen stats to A prospect Jordon Greenway who plays on BU or Blake Wheeler who didn't start in NCAA for a full year after he was drafted. NCAA stats are deflated especially for freshmen as they play typically limited minutes (don't beLieve this was the case here with Brady who is so good and physically mature that he forces the coaches hand to play him more than he likely would normally) against D and G's who are as old as 23 (and much more physically mature) versus the CHL where you can rack up points against lines composed of 16 year old kids. The league's are not exactly apples to apples; especially when you consider the depth of that London Knights squad.

I was more talking about their predraft USDP seasons where Matthew heavily out produced Brady.

Matthew played on a much better team though to be fair

Looking at it, that 14-15 team is insane. Matthews, Roslovic, Tkachuck, Fischer, MacAvoy, Kunin, White, Thompson, Keller are all NHL'rs. Troy Terry will prob be one next year

He;s also getting ourscored by late first round pick Shane Bowers who's only two months older

 

[Matias Maccete]

Yeah I trust our scouts, they've done a damn good job. Strome is starting to look a little scary, but I haven't lost hope yet, and obviously the Chychrun Keller draft was a winner. It's insanely early, but POJ is looking good too.

My comment about us picking 5th was just the classic coyotes lottery luck joke, if someone has what they think are a great top 4 we'll pick 5 because coyotes, shift the numbers however you think the tiers are. Prove me wrong lottery balls.

 

[rt]

Yeah I trust our scouts, they've done a damn good job. Strome is starting to look a little scary, but I haven't lost hope yet, and obviously the Chychrun Keller draft was a winner. It's insanely early, but POJ is looking good too.

My comment about us picking 5th was just the classic coyotes lottery luck joke, if someone has what they think are a great top 4 we'll pick 5 because coyotes, shift the numbers however you think the tiers are. Prove me wrong lottery balls.

We’ve been calling it “n+1” for about ten years. Haha.

 

[Matias Maccete]

We’ve been calling it “n+1” for about ten years. Haha.

Unfortunately I'm familiar with the term.

 

[hbk]

I was more talking about their predraft USDP seasons where Matthew heavily out produced Brady.

Matthew played on a much better team though to be fair

Looking at it, that 14-15 team is insane. Matthews, Roslovic, Tkachuck, Fischer, MacAvoy, Kunin, White, Thompson, Keller are all NHL'rs. Troy Terry will prob be one next year

He;s also getting ourscored by late first round pick Shane Bowers who's only two months older

Bowers has 2 more points. i do not have any concerns about Tkachuk's ability to score at NHL level. Skating, scoring, size, physicality, playmaking. Tkachuk checks all the boxes. It's why scouts are drooling over him.

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

Bowers has 2 more points. i do not have any concerns about Tkachuk's ability to score at NHL level. Skating, scoring, size, physicality, playmaking. Tkachuk checks all the boxes. It's why scouts are drooling over him.

I guess I'm just worried that despite all the talk about the elite skillset, there hasn't ever been the elite production.

 

[rt]

I’m gun shy about large red flags in the top three. Whether it’s lack of skating ability (Strome) or lack of elite production (Tkachuk).