2018 HF Team Boards Mock Draft -- Pick #21

[ThorNton Apologist]

Lundestrom for me. Would also be happy with Wise.

I am surprised how many people here want Merkley. I think he’s the last guy on the list that DW would likely target.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Lundestrom for me. Would also be happy with Wise.

I am surprised how many people here want Merkley. I think he’s the last guy on the list that DW would likely target.

Yeah, but we’re talking about what we want, which has historically performed better than DW.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

He absolutely has game-breaking skill. Question is will he put in effort in defense, is he coachable, can he fit into an NHL locker room.

Our D prospect pool is atrocious. If the Sharks talk to Merkley and decide he can fit in here, then I’m all for it. Insane talent.

Given that we just acquired Kane and then re-signed him, I’m going to try and be optimistic in hoping that DW feels confident in his ability to “fix” a player with game breaking talent and character issues.

Realistically, though, we’re picking Jake Wise.

 

[ThorNton Apologist]

Yeah, but we’re talking about what we want, which has historically performed better than DW.

As much talent as Merkley has, he’s too much of a risk. I’d take him somewhere in the mid second round but I wouldn’t use 21 on him.

 

[Lebanezer]

Everyone is tossing out the names of the guys they think the Sharks will take. We all know that we can’t make any real predictions until the combine results come out and we see who has the best VO2 max score relative to their overall ranking.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

As much talent as Merkley has, he’s too much of a risk. I’d take him somewhere in the mid second round but I wouldn’t use 21 on him.

In theory, if we had gone highest risk, highest reward, since 2012, we would have Teravainen, Shinkaruk, Ho-Sang, and Barzal. I’ll take that group over Hertl, Mueller, Goldobin, and Meier. Yeah, Ho-Sang is probably a bust, and Shinkaruk is definitely a bust, but you can say the same thing about Goldobin and Mueller. Teravainen is roughly comparable to Hertl and Barzal is more than twice as valuable as Meier.

1st round picks usually bust in the range we draft anyway. You’re much better off drafting the player with the absolute highest upside because when you do hit, you’re a lot more likely to get an impact player. “Safe picks” like Mirco Mueller bust too.

 

[ThorNton Apologist]

In theory, if we had gone highest risk, highest reward, since 2012, we would have Teravainen, Shinkaruk, Ho-Sang, and Barzal. I’ll take that group over Hertl, Mueller, Goldobin, and Meier. Yeah, Ho-Sang is probably a bust, and Shinkaruk is definitely a bust, but you can say the same thing about Goldobin and Mueller. Teravainen is roughly comparable to Hertl and Barzal is more than twice as valuable as Meier.

1st round picks usually bust in the range we draft anyway. You’re much better off drafting the player with the absolute highest upside because when you do hit, you’re a lot more likely to get an impact player. “Safe picks” like Mirco Mueller bust too.

And I agree. Sharks always go for safe picks. I would have preferred Yamamoto over Norris.

Out of the names you listed I only liked Teravainen and Barzal. Barzal was supposedly dropped for poor interviews. I don’t think he was necessarily high risk. Although Timo was definitely the safer pick.

I just don’t like Merkley. He’s way to hard to project in the NHL IMO. You take one of Lundestrom, Wise or Bokk if they’re in the board. Which I’m sure one of those players will be at 21

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

And I agree. Sharks always go for safe picks. I would have preferred Yamamoto over Norris.

Out of the names you listed I only liked Teravainen and Barzal. Barzal was supposedly dropped for poor interviews. I don’t think he was necessarily high risk. Although Timo was definitely the safer pick.

I just don’t like Merkley. He’s way to hard to project in the NHL IMO. You take one of Lundestrom, Wise or Bokk if they’re in the board. Which I’m sure one of those players will be at 21

Teravainen and Barzal were definitely lower than the other two on the list of red flags. Shinkaruk also dropped for poor interviews, but Ho-Sang had serious character issues.

For the record, I know next to nothing about these players. I hadn’t or haven’t seen nearly enough of any of them in junior to make a true judgment. But they were all seen as the risky, high upside players that fell in the draft. My philosophy is that if you just pick the most risky boom/bust player (given that they actually have the highest upside of the available players) every time in the first round, you will do a lot better than our current scouting staff. I would just pick the player with the highest upside with every single pick in every single draft and worry about everything else later.

I understand not liking Merkley, and maybe you are right. Maybe he does bust. But he clearly has the highest ultimate upside of any player that will be available at #21, and his advanced numbers are insane relative to everybody else in his league. And if you just keep making that highest upside possible pick every time, you will eventually hit on a Barzal. Merkley could easily be a Barzal.

For the record, I would take Barzal alone over every first round pick we have made since I started watching Sharks hockey. And there is no doubt in my mind that the picks we would have made in 2011 and 2016 would not be enough to til the scales.

 

[ThorNton Apologist]

Teravainen and Barzal were definitely lower than the other two on the list of red flags. Shinkaruk also dropped for poor interviews, but Ho-Sang had serious character issues.

For the record, I know next to nothing about these players. I hadn’t or haven’t seen nearly enough of any of them in junior to make a true judgment. But they were all seen as the risky, high upside players that fell in the draft. My philosophy is that if you just pick the most risky boom/bust player (given that they actually have the highest upside of the available players) every time in the first round, you will do a lot better than our current scouting staff. I would just pick the player with the highest upside with every single pick in every single draft and worry about everything else later.

I understand not liking Merkley, and maybe you are right. Maybe he does bust. But he clearly has the highest ultimate upside of any player that will be available at #21, and his advanced numbers are insane relative to everybody else in his league. And if you just keep making that highest upside possible pick every time, you will eventually hit on a Barzal. Merkley could easily be a Barzal.

For the record, I would take Barzal alone over every first round pick we have made since I started watching Sharks hockey. And there is no doubt in my mind that the picks we would have made in 2011 and 2016 would not be enough to til the scales.

While I do mostly agree. I think there is a balance or happy medium between highest upside and highest risk. Because of where the Sharks usually draft in the 1st round, they need to start taking bigger risks to get a high impact core player.

I hated the Meier pick because I thought that was our best chance in quite some time to get a player that could be elite or even a player to build around. Meier was seen as a great complementary piece. Looking back there were several guys who fit that elite title.

(Barzal,Rantanen,Connor,Boeser, Aho) all guys who could arguably have more risk than Meier at the time of the draft but all guys who I believed had higher ceilings. Although I admit I had little to zero knowledge of the later two until after the draft.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

We need a D but I'd draft BPA at this stage as there are other D that could slide with value.

I'd be shocked beyond words if Burke/Wilson went with Merkley but if someone can get his head right, there's no doubting his offensive toolkit. Certainly a high risk guy. The last one like that (Goldobin) didn't work out as expected at pick 27, so I don't see it happening.

I'd personally draft Tychonick here or Martin Kaut. Both have lots of upside.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Ryan McLeod

 

[Bizz]

I remember seeing lots of highlights of Merkley over the past few months. With Nic Roy looking more like damaged goods I think picking up a high upside Defenseman is a good idea.

 

[Led Zappa]

Can I change my pick lol..This kid looks like a game changer.

I watched this and when it was done one of the next recommended videos was Gretzky. Put me on board with the Merkley kid.

 

[Maladroit]

Ryan McLeod

I'm convinced the Sharks will take this kid and it would be another huge mistake.

Merkley should be the pick if he's still on the board.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Merkeley will be a great KHL defenseman.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Merkeley will be a great KHL defenseman.

Ryan McLeod will be a great fourth line center.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Fair enough, that's a good assessment of his floor. But I think he has a lot of Ryan O' Reilly in him.

 

[Maladroit]

Ryan McLeod's floor isn't fourth line center. It's "guy who plays five career NHL games and only even gets into those so the GM who drafted him doesn't look like a complete dumbass." McLeod is literally the oldest first-time eligible player in this draft. I don't know the cutoff off the top of my head but I believe he was something like three days away from being eligible for the 2017 draft. And yet he still barely managed a point per game in this, his 18-year-old season in the CHL. That's pathetic. He's this year's Frederic Gauthier and even that might be generous.

I don't know how you can be a Sharks fan who's watched the team continually get burned by drafting "safe" (not actually safe) low-upside "character" players in the first round over much more highly skilled options and still pine for the same course of action. Shouldn't taking Meier over a guy who's already an elite 1C in Barzal have been the last straw?

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Ryan McLeod's floor isn't fourth line center. It's "guy who plays five career NHL games and only even gets into those so the GM who drafted him doesn't look like a complete dumbass." McLeod is literally the oldest first-time eligible player in this draft. I don't know the cutoff off the top of my head but I believe he was something like three days away from being eligible for the 2017 draft. And yet he still barely managed a point per game in this, his 18-year-old season in the CHL. That's pathetic. He's this year's Frederic Gauthier and even that might be generous.

I don't know how you can be a Sharks fan who's watched the team continually get burned by drafting "safe" (not actually safe) low-upside "character" players in the first round over much more highly skilled options and still pine for the same course of action. Shouldn't taking Meier over a guy who's already an elite 1C in Barzal have been the last straw?

You want Crouse over Meier? You want Gurainov, Zboril? Calling an incredibly talented player "the last straw" is ridiculous.

 

[Maladroit]

You want Crouse over Meier? You want Gurainov, Zboril? Calling an incredibly talented player "the last straw" is ridiculous.

What are you talking about? Crouse and Zboril were clearly much worse picks than Meier at the time. But Meier was clearly a worse bet to become a high-end offensive player than Barzal, Kyle Connor and Mikko Rantanen. This isn't hindsight, it was blatantly obvious at the time.

What kills me about the Meier pick is that he was so clearly taken because he "plays Sharks hockey" in that he's a smart two-way winger who works hard, puts pucks on net at an incredible rate, is a plus possession player and has absolutely no high-end offensive skills or any ability to create off the rush. And lo and behold midway through this season Doug Wilson finally realizes "Sharks hockey" isn't effective anymore in the new NHL and the team needs to shift to a speed-oriented transition attack to keep up with teams like Vegas. You know who would be excellent in the east-west offensive system the Sharks largely switched to? Barzal and Connor. This is the problem with instituting a top-down mandate of how the team should play instead of acquiring the best possible players and figuring out how to best utilize them later.

 

[Lebanezer]

Ryan McLeod's floor isn't fourth line center. It's "guy who plays five career NHL games and only even gets into those so the GM who drafted him doesn't look like a complete dumbass." McLeod is literally the oldest first-time eligible player in this draft. I don't know the cutoff off the top of my head but I believe he was something like three days away from being eligible for the 2017 draft. And yet he still barely managed a point per game in this, his 18-year-old season in the CHL. That's pathetic. He's this year's Frederic Gauthier and even that might be generous.

I don't know how you can be a Sharks fan who's watched the team continually get burned by drafting "safe" (not actually safe) low-upside "character" players in the first round over much more highly skilled options and still pine for the same course of action. Shouldn't taking Meier over a guy who's already an elite 1C in Barzal have been the last straw?

The cutoff is September 15th. Brady Tkachuk is the oldest first time eligible player in the draft, born September 16th 1999. Jan Jenik on the other hand was born September 15th 2000. McLeod born September 21st is old for the draft as you say. Jan Jenik did well in the VO2 max, so sharks will probably take him in the 4th round.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Fair enough, that's a good assessment of his floor. But I think he has a lot of Ryan O' Reilly in him.

Ryan McLeod’s floor is non-NHLer. His upside is mediocre third liner.

 

[NorthernShark]

Need a D man this draft. Merkley and Roy on the PP together, O;

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Ryan McLeod’s floor is non-NHLer. His upside is mediocre third liner.

And Merkeley's upside is third pairing PP specialist.

He's -70 in 2 years. At least he 'improved' from the worst plus/minus in the OHL 2 years ago to 12th worst last year.

 

[Maladroit]

And Merkeley's upside is third pairing PP specialist.

When you say something like this you just sound ignorant. Could Merkley completely flame out and never play a NHL game? Absolutely, that risk exists for almost every prospect. But if you look at defensemen who have scored at anywhere near the same rate as Merkley in the CHL, not just in their draft year but in their draft-1 year, at his age (he's one of the younger players eligible for this draft) you're going to find the list is overwhelmingly populated with established top-four NHL defensemen.

Here are all the defensemen drafted between the 2003 and 2013 NHL entry drafts who scored at least 0.8 points per game in their 16- and 17-year-old seasons in the CHL (Merkley scored 0.89 pts/gm in his 16yo season and 1.06 pts/gm this year): Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, Ryan Ellis, Michael Del Zotto. That's two franchise defensemen, another top pairing caliber defenseman in Ellis and a guy who more or less fits the "third pairing PP specialist" role you described but would still be an excellent pick at 21st overall. More to the point, based on this list of comparables, Merkley is twice as likely to become a Norris Trophy finalist as he is a third pairing PP guy. The latter is certainly not his "upside." His upside is Drew Doughty, who he outscored in their respective draft years (despite being nine months younger).

Splitting the difference you're likely looking at Merkley having a career similar to Ryan Ellis or Tyson Barrie (who narrowly missed out on this list). Even that is being a bit unfair to Merkley given how much younger he'll be at the time of the draft than any of the aforementioned players were. It's incredibly difficult to find a better player than Ellis or Barrie late in the first round. I don't even need to go through the list of McLeod's comparables to know forwards who barely crack a point per game in the CHL as an 18-year-old have a very low probability of turning into top six forwards in the NHL.