2017 WCQF Series Topic - Blackhawks vs Predators

[Salvaged Ship]

I have zero feel for this Hawks team. So many rookies, questionable blue line play, questionable goaltending. This team could go all the way or lose in the first round. Hopefully we see a big step up in play come Thursday.

 

[ChiHawks10]

The 7pm starts are nice this week. These damn 8:30pm starts in Nashville are ridiculous, though. If you get even one OT, the game is running past midnight. Multiple OT's like we've seen so many times... blows.

 

[Illinihockey]

Hawks in 6

 

[MadhouseOnMadison]

If Hawks don't figure out how to kill penalties vs the Preds it'll be a tougher series than you think. Those point shots kill us and the Preds are masters at it.

Pretty much my main concern.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

The 7pm starts are nice this week. These damn 8:30pm starts in Nashville are ridiculous, though. If you get even one OT, the game is running past midnight. Multiple OT's like we've seen so many times... blows.

I think game 4 is going to be a late start as well. Unless one of the Metro series are 3-0 and they can demote the game to NHLN.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I think game 4 is going to be a late start as well. Unless one of the Metro series are 3-0 and they can demote the game to NHLN.

Yeah, it will be. All the games in Nashville will be 8:30 starts. More likely than not.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Hartman-Kruger-Hossa line:
gf 7
ga 1
gf% 87.5
sf% 55.4

This comment isn't getting near enough love. The Hartman-Kruger-Hossa line has been dominant possession wise and they've gotten some hard minutes (tough opposition, a lot of defensive zone starts).

Having a line like this that could shutdown the Forsberg line is a big deal. Especially when we have home ice and can dictate matchups.

 

[Hawkaholic]

That's because some people think Kruger should be a scratch.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

This comment isn't getting near enough love. The Hartman-Kruger-Hossa line has been dominant possession wise and they've gotten some hard minutes (tough opposition, a lot of defensive zone starts).

Having a line like this that could shutdown the Forsberg line is a big deal. Especially when we have home ice and can dictate matchups.

Thank you Shaft, I thought it was pretty interesting as well. I was wondering why nobody else seemed interested in it.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Thank you Shaft, I thought it was pretty interesting as well. I was wondering why nobody else seemed interested in it.

I think we were all distracted by the fact that there is likely quite a few 3-4 hour of sleep work nights in our future.

Definitely some nice stats to see, though. That shutdown line could be the difference in a Cup parade, or not.

 

[JLarucci23]

Hawks in 7. Really would have preferred the Blues or Flames over The Preds.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Hawks in 7. Really would have preferred the Blues or Flames over The Preds.

Why, though? All three of them were a few of the hottest teams in the NHL down the stretch. I think it didn't really matter, and that the Hawks can beat any of the three with relative ease when playing their best.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

I say it Hawks in 6.

ST has to be MUCH better. PK has been weak of late and the PP has been hot garbage. I can deal with a weak PP in the playoffs, but not a weak PK.

I think Crow has to steal at least one game.

The Captain needs to return to February form. Getting secondary apples is fine, but he needs to pot goals and has to win at the dot.

15 being back - if he truly is - is critical.

But hey, we get to deal with the annoying ridiculous uninformed Nashville fans. Maybe we'll get a Carrie Underwood sighting.

 

[BK]

I say it Hawks in 6.

ST has to be MUCH better. PK has been weak of late and the PP has been hot garbage. I can deal with a weak PP in the playoffs, but not a weak PK.

I think Crow has to steal at least one game.

The Captain needs to return to February form. Getting secondary apples is fine, but he needs to pot goals and has to win at the dot.

15 being back - if he truly is - is critical.

But hey, we get to deal with the annoying ridiculous uninformed Nashville fans. Maybe we'll get a Carrie Underwood sighting.

We can all hope.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I say it Hawks in 6.

ST has to be MUCH better. PK has been weak of late and the PP has been hot garbage. I can deal with a weak PP in the playoffs, but not a weak PK.

I think Crow has to steal at least one game.

The Captain needs to return to February form. Getting secondary apples is fine, but he needs to pot goals and has to win at the dot.

15 being back - if he truly is - is critical.

But hey, we get to deal with the annoying ridiculous uninformed Nashville fans. Maybe we'll get a Carrie Underwood sighting.

Odds are high. Although, their relationship is rumored to be on the rocks right now, so who knows.

Not quite sure why I know that, honestly. I think I saw a headline on Yahoo or something.

 

[Killer Boots Man]

Hard to compare either team to 2015. Our defensive depth sucked then, and we didn't have a game breaking Russian with us.

Very true.

Both very different teams. Here are some quick comps:

2014-15 Hawks vs. 2016-17 Hawks:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/...-4957-chicago-blackhawks-2016/#Team Winning %

- More points in 2017 (109) vs. 2015 (102)
- Worse defense in 2017 (11th best - 2.59 gapg) vs. 2015 (2nd - 2.27 gapg)
- Better offense in 2017 (9th best - 2.93 gpg) vs. 2015 (17th - 2.68 gpg)
- Slightly worse goal differential in 2017 (7th - 0.34) vs. 2015 (5th - 0.41)

2014-15 Perds vs. 2016-17 Perds:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/...4980-nashville-predators-2016/#Team Winning %

- Overall much better team in 2015
- Less points in 2017 (15th - 94) vs. 2017 (6th - 104)
- Worse defense in 2017 (15th best - 2.68 gapg) vs. 2015 (9th - 2.46 gapg)
- Better offense in 2017 (9th) vs. 2015 (17th)
- Worse goal differential in 2017 (12th - 0.22) vs. 2015 (10th 0.29)

2017 Hawks vs. 2017 Perds:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/...4980-nashville-predators-2016/#Team Winning %

GPG (Chi +0.03), GAPG (CHI +0.09), Goal diff (CHI +0.12)

2015 Hawks vs. 2015 Perds:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/...4980-nashville-predators-2014/#Team Winning %

GPG (NSH +0.08), GAPG (CHI +0.19), Goal diff (CHI +0.12)

Identical goal differential in 2015 vs. 2017 CHI-NSH matchups. Hmmm...

 

[JaegerDice]

Well some of us have been singing Kruger's praises as a possession demon all season.

 

[BobbyJet]

I say it Hawks in 6.

ST has to be MUCH better. PK has been weak of late and the PP has been hot garbage. I can deal with a weak PP in the playoffs, but not a weak PK.

I think Crow has to steal at least one game.

The Captain needs to return to February form. Getting secondary apples is fine, but he needs to pot goals and has to win at the dot.

15 being back - if he truly is - is critical.

But hey, we get to deal with the annoying ridiculous uninformed Nashville fans. Maybe we'll get a Carrie Underwood sighting.

Since I almost always get the Preds feed, the constant Smashville reference is annoying as hell. Hopefully we get the Hawks or a neutral feed in the PO's.

My concern is getting off to a slow start. They got away with it last time these two teams met in the post season but Preds are better this time around.

 

[CallMeShaft]

1,462 combined playoff games for any roster is ****ing insane. Some teams would be lucky to have over 200.

 

[Killer Boots Man]

I say it Hawks in 6.

ST has to be MUCH better. PK has been weak of late and the PP has been hot garbage. I can deal with a weak PP in the playoffs, but not a weak PK.

...

I think a lot of it had to do with our center health.

Some splits before and after Kruger & AA's injuries, with Nashville's stats for reference:

Pre- Kruger returning from injury (- 2/2/17):

PK%: 77.7% (24th) (NSH: 80.9% 15th)
PP%: 18.0% (19th) (NSH: 18.9% 16th)

Post- Kruger returning from injury (2/2/17 - end of seas.):

PK%: 81.3% (14th) (NSH: 77.4% 23rd)
PP%: 19.5% (16th) (NSH: 19.8% 14th)

Post Anisimov injury (3/14/17 - end of seas.):

PK%: 77.8% (21st) (NSH 87.9% 3rd)
PP%: 14.6% (25th) (NSH 10.0 28th)

Thoughts:

- With Kruger and AA healthy in the playoffs, our PK & PP should be solid. If AA hadn't gotten injured, then the "post Kruger injury" numbers above would've been even higher.
- For some reason, the Perds' PK was awesome over the last month of the season but their power play sucked. Extreme swings at both ends. Shows their inconsistency.

 

[JaegerDice]

It's as simple as it always is for the Blackhawks.

As Keith and Toews go, so go the Blackhawks. If those two play up to the top of their game, the Blackhawks are golden. If they struggle or are mediocre, then things could get rough.

No reason to make it more complicated than that.

 

[BobbyJet]

I think a lot of it had to do with our center health.

Some splits before and after Kruger & AA's injuries, with Nashville's stats for reference:

Pre- Kruger returning from injury (- 2/2/17):

PK%: 77.7% (24th) (NSH: 80.9% 15th)
PP%: 18.0% (19th) (NSH: 18.9% 16th)

Post- Kruger returning from injury (2/2/17 - end of seas.):

PK%: 81.3% (14th) (NSH: 77.4% 23rd)
PP%: 19.5% (16th) (NSH: 19.8% 14th)

Post Anisimov injury (3/14/17 - end of seas.):

PK%: 77.8% (21st) (NSH 87.9% 3rd)
PP%: 14.6% (25th) (NSH 10.0 28th)

Thoughts:

- With Kruger and AA healthy in the playoffs, our PK & PP should be solid. If AA hadn't gotten injured, then the "post Kruger injury" numbers above would've been even higher.
- For some reason, the Perds' PK was awesome over the last month of the season but their power play sucked. Extreme swings at both ends. Shows their inconsistency.

I presume you are basing the bold on numbers because it has a striking resemblance to fantasy. The reality is that Hawks' STs have been god awful and Kruger has had far more poor games than good ones.

That said the PK numbers are skewed by the poor start but is still not performing very well, and will need to be better. The PP showed some movement last game, let's hope that continues as well.

 

[JaegerDice]

I'm somewhat concerned that Q will put Kero back between Hossa and Hartman when Anisimov returns, thus ruining an amazing line.

Kero should obviously be on the 4th line, but Q seems to think more highly of him than that given his previous role as 3C and current role as 2C.

That move obviously wouldn't single-handedly sink the Blackhawks, but the performance of both teams in the numbers that matter over the last 25 games have been close enough that icing other than a maximized lineup could make things tougher than need be.

Crossing my fingers for the correct decision...

 

[Hawkaholic]

I wouldn't be concerned about that, I think Hossa and Kruger will be joined at the hip until given a reason to break it up. (Like Toews struggling with Panik/Schmaltz, or the 4th line being completely under water)

 

[Killer Boots Man]

Preds 2C Calle Jarnkrok missed practice today (missed last game v. Jets with a lower body injury). Apparently he was dressed for practice but didn't make it out onto the ice. (link). Someone named "Pontus Aberg called up.

Colin Wilson and Mike Fischer also banged up.