Speculation: 2017 Offseason/Expansion Draft Part II

[Triumph]

Something to ponder...

Is the NHL a tank league? What I mean is...can one only be successful, post lock-out if you get a top 3 pick, perhaps two of them? If you are the Devils and just not terrible, but far from good, are you doomed to mediocrity?

No. The Rangers have missed the playoffs one year since the 2005 lockout and have not drafted in the top 5 in the last 15 years. I hate to use them as an example but there it is. Their window is starting to close but with slightly better management it wouldn't be.

What we're seeing now is a few things coming to pass that aren't likely to happen again because of the changes to the lottery system and NHL salary system. You're not likely to see a Crosby and a Malkin drafted by the same team again, at least not in successive years. You're also not going to see two players like that taking up less than 1/4th of their team's cap space without some real convincing. Backstrom and Ovechkin also take up less than 1/4th of their team's cap space, but both have contracts that wouldn't work today.

The die is cast for the next few years, but once the Hawks, Caps, and Penguins start to fade it will be interesting to find out who the NHL's new elite are.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Kings window also seems to have slammed shut.

 

[kiwidevil]

Rangers also lucked into a franchise goalie in the 7th round, always manage to attract very top end UFA's and players who demand a trade, and also attract basically all the best college FA's and draftee's that refuse to sign with their original club.

All those things are basically impossible for us for various reasons.

 

[Bleedred]

Kings window also seems to have slammed shut.

They're finished with winning cups for quite a while.

Lombardi destroyed the team after the two cups.

DESTROYED it.

LOL @ some of the bad contracts and AWFUL trades. Not even gonna blame the Brown contract on him, as he wasn't bad yet at the time it was signed.

Gaborik for 7 years? Gaborik is nothing but a bag of bones at this point, and an injury prone one at that. Neglecting to use the amnesty buyout on Richards, then weaseling out of his contract a year later, only to have a recapture hit into the 2030's.

Dean has been the league's worst GM since 2014, not to mention that he built that pathetic Team USA roster that competed in the World Cup tournament last September. It's not hyperbole to argue that he's been the league's worst GM since 2014, he's at least in the running for it.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Rangers also lucked into a franchise goalie in the 7th round, always manage to attract very top end UFA's and players who demand a trade, and also attract basically all the best college FA's and draftee's that refuse to sign with their original club.

All those things are basically impossible for us for various reasons.

Yet they did it without a true 1C or a stand out D.

We also have a franchise goalie and we will fill our holes with solid drafting and smart trades instead of through UFA.

 

[Oneiro]

No matter what successful team we talk about or how we define success in the first place, luck is always a factor.

Feels like we're due...

 

[Zippy316]

Interesting caveat to the expansion draft is Las Vegas has to take 20 players signed through 2017-18.

Really limits their ability to take RFAs.

 

[Tundra]

Something to ponder...

Is the NHL a tank league? What I mean is...can one only be successful, post lock-out if you get a top 3 pick, perhaps two of them? If you are the Devils and just not terrible, but far from good, are you doomed to mediocrity?

Yes, with the long ELC/RFA status, absolutely. Look at next year's UFAs. It's a barren wasteland aside from 3 or 4 players.

 

[217 Forever]

Yes, with the long ELC/RFA status, absolutely. Look at next year's UFAs. It's a barren wasteland aside from 3 or 4 players.

Folks should do a little research first because that narrative is a popular one but it is just patently untrue. Sure, top 3 picks might be the easiest route to rebuilding, but it is not the only one. Minnesota has no top 5 picks. San Jose has Marleau 50 years ago but none since. Good scouting and a smart GM can easily overcome a lack of top draft positioning. It's just too easy to cry that we haven't drafted highly which might make people feel better but that shouldn't be accepted IMO.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Something to ponder...

Is the NHL a tank league? What I mean is...can one only be successful, post lock-out if you get a top 3 pick, perhaps two of them? If you are the Devils and just not terrible, but far from good, are you doomed to mediocrity?

Sure, if you're lucky to draft an A+ players like McD or Matty. Or A- players as Eichel, Laine or Marner to a lesser degree.

 

[Burner Account]

No matter what successful team we talk about or how we define success in the first place, luck is always a factor.

Feels like we're due...

Luck was an enormous factor in the dynasty Devils. Enormous.

 

[Tundra]

Folks should do a little research first because that narrative is a popular one but it is just patently untrue. Sure, top 3 picks might be the easiest route to rebuilding, but it is not the only one. Minnesota has no top 5 picks. San Jose has Marleau 50 years ago but none since. Good scouting and a smart GM can easily overcome a lack of top draft positioning. It's just too easy to cry that we haven't drafted highly which might make people feel better but that shouldn't be accepted IMO.

I agree with you about maximizing one's draft class from year to year, but the core pieces are often not available via trade or FA in today's NHL. Players under 25 are coveted to such a degree in the NHL.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

the point is you can still be a contender without tanking.

 

[Tundra]

Luck was an enormous factor in the dynasty Devils. Enormous.

High picks made the devils dynasty. Look at the key pieces. Shanahan turned into Stevens. We grabbed Niedermayer at #3. Guerin was turned into Arnott. Without the top 5 picks, there would have been no cups.

 

[NJDevils17]

I think the NHL is a league that relies on strong drafting. Even if you're not getting a superstar, a team that drafts well can compete. Weber was a second round pick and blossomed into a #1 dman, Benn was a 5th rounder, etc. It's easier to tank but if you pick 6-10, smart drafting can go a long way in being a great team. You need to make great picks if you're not being gifted superstars.

 

[OmNomNom]

It's not hyperbole to argue that he's been the league's worst GM since 2014, he's at least in the running for it.

well, he DID learn from the best (Lou)

 

[Tundra]

well, he DID learn from the best (Lou)

Lombardi is a good GM, but it appears that he got as greedy as Lou did. You got to know when to fold them.

 

[Burner Account]

High picks made the devils dynasty. Look at the key pieces. Shanahan turned into Stevens. We grabbed Niedermayer at #3. Guerin was turned into Arnott. Without the top 5 picks, there would have been no cups.

I agree. But Shanahan turning into Stevens, the Niedermayer pick and trading down for Marty were all incredibly fortuitous.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Lombardi is a good GM, but it appears that he got as greedy as Lou did. You got to know when to fold them.

That's very key. It's why the Patriots have been so consistently good. There is no sentimentality about their success. It's on to the next one.

Gaborik got his ridiculous contract because of his post season success in the 13-14 playoffs. Lombardi would have been roasted if he let Gaborik walk, but that's exactly what he should have done. Instead he took the easy way out and ponied up seven years to an injury prone, 32-year old guy whose offensive game is heavily predicated on speed.

 

[Tundra]

I agree. But Shanahan turning into Stevens, the Niedermayer pick and trading down for Marty were all incredibly fortuitous.

Yes, the arbitrator didn't have to reciprocate with Stevens. It was luck.

 

[Edmonton East]

No. The Rangers have missed the playoffs one year since the 2005 lockout and have not drafted in the top 5 in the last 15 years. I hate to use them as an example but there it is. Their window is starting to close but with slightly better management it wouldn't be.

What we're seeing now is a few things coming to pass that aren't likely to happen again because of the changes to the lottery system and NHL salary system. You're not likely to see a Crosby and a Malkin drafted by the same team again, at least not in successive years. You're also not going to see two players like that taking up less than 1/4th of their team's cap space without some real convincing. Backstrom and Ovechkin also take up less than 1/4th of their team's cap space, but both have contracts that wouldn't work today.

The die is cast for the next few years, but once the Hawks, Caps, and Penguins start to fade it will be interesting to find out who the NHL's new elite are.

Exception to the rule. Plus a "destination" franchise for undrafted and free agents. Plus getting a #1 dman for free, which rarely ever happens.

The new elite are going to be EDM and Toronto. And guess what they are made up of...

But who am I to say the Devils can't be another exception to the rule. I will say I wish this team tanked years ago when I was ranting on here for them to do so, all the while many posters told me the team "wasn't that far off" from competing.

 

[EnglishDevil]

I think the NHL is a league that relies on strong drafting. Even if you're not getting a superstar, a team that drafts well can compete. Weber was a second round pick and blossomed into a #1 dman, Benn was a 5th rounder, etc. It's easier to tank but if you pick 6-10, smart drafting can go a long way in being a great team. You need to make great picks if you're not being gifted superstars.

That's why i'm willing to give the new regime (particularly Shero & Castron) a few more years to turn this around. They've historically shown an aptitude for drafting well, particularly in the later rounds; but it takes a few years for that to pay dividends for the NHL team.

Correct me if i'm wrong but Shero has only been in charge for the last two drafts, with the 2015 draft coming about a month after he was hired, which meant relying heavily on the input of Conte and the previous scouting setup.

With that in mind the last two drafts are already looking fairly promising, especially in the later rounds with guys like Speers, Anderson & Gignac in the third and Rykov in the fifth. It already looks significantly better than 2014 (under Lou & Conte) where we drafted Chatham in the third, Rehill in the fifth & Dudek and Baddock with our pair of sixth rounders.

I'll give the previous administration credit for recovering from that Matteau pick by snagging us Quenneville & Santini with our higher picks in the subsequent drafts; but outside of Wood in the fourth round their track record in the later rounds of the draft was abysmal.

It's definitely going to take a few years to turn things around, people need to be patient and trust the rebuilding process. At least our new management is trying to do things the right way, I'm not going to judge them for signing stop gaps like Fiddler, Parenteau, Stempniak & Quincey to bridge the gap, especially when the majority of them performed about as well as could realistically be expected before we shipped them off for extra picks to accelerate the rebuild.

We're much better off than we were two years ago, it was always going to be a grueling process to overhaul this team considering the shambles it was at the end of Lou's tenure.

 

[Devils Dominion]

Yes, it was Conte's staff for the 2015 draft. Especially Zacha so Shero may have had some input on later round picks.

Castron's first draft was last June.

 

[R8Devs]

i really doubt a gm didn't have input on the 6th overall pick. anyway if you watch post draft interviews Shero wasn't completely sure what handedness Colton White was. so guys like speers and later were probably Conte and co. GM's have more important things to do than scout late round guys

 

[Devils Dominion]

i really doubt a gm didn't have input on the 6th overall pick. anyway if you watch post draft interviews Shero wasn't completely sure what handedness Colton White was. so guys like speers and later were probably Conte and co. GM's have more important things to do than scout late round guys

Of course Ray was at the table, but it's a well-know consensus that Zacha was a Conte pick.

Just out of respect to Lou, Ray was not going to overrule Conte when he was hired just weeks before the draft.