GDT: 2017 NHL Entry Draft (Rds 2-7 Sat, Jun 24 7am PT/10am ET, NHL Net/Rogers Sportsnet)

[Juxtaposer]

That was a good way to use an offersheet. Too bad DW hasn't successfully done it since.

Teams could do that to Edmonton with Draisital and McDavid. Offer Drai a high contract hoping that Edmonton will match. Then they're in a bad position in their negotiations with McDavid. Even if they re-sign McDavid, maybe you can pick up Strome or one of their other RFAs. They have 7 RFAs they have to re-sign in 2018-19 (+ Maroon and Letestu if they re-sign them). And that's just ppl who are already in the NHL.

The downside risk is you get Drai at a bit more cap than you'd like, which is a pretty good downside.

McDavid isn't an RFA until next year, but I agree with your point.

 

[CrypTic]

McDavid isn't an RFA until next year, but I agree with your point.

I know. My point was that Draisaitl's deal will affect the cap the Oilers have available to pay McDavid and all the other RFAs they have to sign next season. If you can push up Drai's salary via an offer sheet this season, they won't have much cap to work with for McDavid and the other RFAs next season.

That's why I said you might be able to pick up Strome or another RFA from next season. It would also affect how much they can pay other players this season (Kassian, Desharnais, Hendricks, Gryba, Pitlick) but I'm not really interested in any of them.

The form is different than Hjarmalsson and Niemi bc those were in the same season but the idea is the same: by pushing up one player's salary/cap, you can make it difficult or impossible to sign other players (for several years but in the Oilers case, next season is the most interesting one).

 

[Gilligans Island]

Any guesses what the deal with Draisaitl would have to be to get the Oilers to re-sign him? I like the approach and don't know why more GMs don't do the offer sheet route. Clearly, DW is willing to.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Any guesses what the deal with Draisaitl would have to be to get the Oilers to re-sign him? I like the approach and don't know why more GMs don't do the offer sheet route. Clearly, DW is willing to.

I speculated on this a few days ago, but I think the right offer would be $49M over four years. AAV is $12.25M, but over five years it's $9.8M, which is barely still in the two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd compensation. Four years takes him straight to UFA, which would be appealing to him.

 

[Sysreq]

We'd have to get our 2nd and 3rd back from Toronto.

 

[LadyStanley]

I speculated on this a few days ago, but I think the right offer would be $49M over four years. AAV is $12.25M, but over five years it's $9.8M, which is barely still in the two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd compensation. Four years takes him straight to UFA, which would be appealing to him.

Compensation tiers change annually. Who knows what it'll be next summer.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Compensation tiers change annually. Who knows what it'll be next summer.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2017/05/offer-sheet-compensation.html

$7,851,948 to $9,814,935 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $9,814,935 Four first-round picks

 

[magic school bus]

I wanted to offersheet Mackinnon and Barrie last year. Didn't happen.

Not sure how comfortable they are with spending that kind of money (especially on the heels of the Burns deal).

 

[OrrNumber4]

I speculated on this a few days ago, but I think the right offer would be $49M over four years. AAV is $12.25M, but over five years it's $9.8M, which is barely still in the two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd compensation. Four years takes him straight to UFA, which would be appealing to him.

That's ridiculous. At that price, that is a no-brainer contract to sign him to. It effectively removes/caps the RFA benefit for teams. I mean, the first rounders would both have to be in the top-5 for this to really be a bad trade.

For players like McDavid, even if you have to give up four first round picks...is it crazy to say that four first-overall picks would still be worth a young McDavid? Plus that a team with McDavid is very unlikely to finish low in the standings.

Spoke with some Euro-scout friends of mine who said that the Sharks as always don't optimize their draft very well but generally get good players. One suggested that Chekhovich reads like a guy you draft in the late first round. Another suggested he'd trade all of the Sharks's picks for Vilardi and Dolan.

 

[Lebanezer]

It's funny, I was looking at a mock draft and Norris, Reedy, Chmelevski and Chekhovich were all taken within 10 picks of each other in the 3rd round.

 

[ScottyDont]

It's funny, I was looking at a mock draft and Norris, Reedy, Chmelevski and Chekhovich were all taken within 10 picks of each other in the 3rd round.

Similar observation. I bought the Future Considerations guide. They had Chekhovich ranked 52, Reedy was 53, and Chmelevski was 54.

 

[CrypTic]

I speculated on this a few days ago, but I think the right offer would be $49M over four years. AAV is $12.25M, but over five years it's $9.8M, which is barely still in the two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd compensation. Four years takes him straight to UFA, which would be appealing to him.

It would still be four 1sts. You only divide by five years if the term is 5, 6, or 7 years.

10.4
Draft Choice Compensation for Restricted Free Agents.
Any Club that is entitled to but does not exercise its Right of First Refusal pursuant to Section 10.3 shall be entitled to obtain Draft Choice Compensation from the New Club. The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms (as defined in Section 10.3(e) hereof) of the New Club's Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five), based on the following scale:

http://www.colliganhockey.com/nhl-rfa-compensation-rules-2016/

It might still be worth offering that, though four firsts is a steep price. I think at 12M/year, there's a decent chance that the Oilers would let us have Drai.

 

[Juxtaposer]

It would still be four 1sts. You only divide by five years if the term is 5, 6, or 7 years.

10.4
Draft Choice Compensation for Restricted Free Agents.
Any Club that is entitled to but does not exercise its Right of First Refusal pursuant to Section 10.3 shall be entitled to obtain Draft Choice Compensation from the New Club. The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms (as defined in Section 10.3(e) hereof) of the New Club's Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five), based on the following scale:

http://www.colliganhockey.com/nhl-rfa-compensation-rules-2016/

It might still be worth offering that, though four firsts is a steep price. I think at 12M/year, there's a decent chance that the Oilers would let us have Drai.

Huh. I've never seen that before.

But honestly, four 1sts would probably be worth it. Who would you rather have: Mueller, Meier, Goldobin, and Norris, or Draisaitl? I know which one I'd pick. Sharks blow at picking in the first round.

 

[CrypTic]

Huh. I've never seen that before.

But honestly, four 1sts would probably be worth it. Who would you rather have: Mueller, Meier, Goldobin, and Norris, or Draisaitl? I know which one I'd pick. Sharks blow at picking in the first round.

I agree. And four years might still be best. They'd need to talk to Draisaitl's agent to see if he'd prefer four or seven years. But we should make whichever offer he'd prefer. I'd definitely do 10M AAV (probably 9.8 if that's over 4 bc no reason to bump up the picks if you're that close). 12M seems like a lot to me but not bc of the firsts.

With Drai, we should be able to at least make the playoffs every year in the forseeable future, so the firsts wouldn't be worth much even if the Sharks were good at drafting in the first. To me, the main question is how would Drai's cap hit work in the next four or so years (assuming that inflation would take care of years after that). That's the Q that would determine how much I'd offer Drai.

I'd think that Plattner would like Drai. He'd make it much more likely to make the playoffs and he's German. And if the Oilers match, maybe we can get someone else and they're a weaker team bc of losing those other players.

 

[Alaskanice]

Similar observation. I bought the Future Considerations guide. They had Chekhovich ranked 52, Reedy was 53, and Chmelevski was 54.

That might suggest that DW and TB know what they're doing.

 

[KirbyDots]

Huh. I've never seen that before.

But honestly, four 1sts would probably be worth it. Who would you rather have: Mueller, Meier, Goldobin, and Norris, or Draisaitl? I know which one I'd pick. Sharks blow at picking in the first round.

I'm on board with a Draisaitl offer sheet. That move would instantly revitalize our franchise. We're not likely to draft anyone close to his level of talent with our 1st for the foreseeable future, barring an all out tank which is unlikely.

 

[The Nemesis]

That might suggest that DW and TB know what they're doing.

well, that's clearly wrong.

Get with it, man.

 

[Lebanezer]

That might suggest that DW and TB know what they're doing.

I think everyone is really happy with the later portion of the draft. We just wanted them to aim a little higher in the first round.

 

[FeedingFrenzy]

Maybe go after Mikael Granlund??

 

[Alaskanice]

well, that's clearly wrong.

Get with it, man.

Nem, it's my stubborn idea that these guys have forgotten more about hockey than we will ever know. Accept my apologies.

 

[Kcoyote3]

I'd offer him 11 X 4, just to watch Edmonton have to match it and spend like 23 million in two players.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'd offer him 11 X 4, just to watch Edmonton have to match it and spend like 23 million in two players.

If you're going to give up four 1sts, you may as well make it really sting. Go up to $12.5M AAV. Between him and McDavid, they'll be spending about a third of the cap. Add in Lucic and RNH at $6M each, woof.

 

[CrypTic]

If you're going to give up four 1sts, you may as well make it really sting. Go up to $12.5M AAV. Between him and McDavid, they'll be spending about a third of the cap. Add in Lucic and RNH at $6M each, woof.

Could we afford 12.5M? I'm not sure Edmonton would match that. I'd guess that they wouldn't. They might not even match 10 or 11.

We don't have any big contracts coming up except:

Hertl and Vlasic (2018-19)

Couture and Pavs (2019-20)

And, of course, Thornton and Marleau this season. We'd probably need to sign them cheap

I'd be ok with trading Pavs if we needed to in order to get/keep Drai.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Could we afford 12.5M? I'm not sure Edmonton would match that. I'd guess that they wouldn't. They might not even match 10 or 11.

We don't have any big contracts coming up except:

Hertl and Vlasic (2018-19)

Couture and Pavs (2019-20)

And, of course, Thornton and Marleau this season. We'd probably need to sign them cheap

I'd be ok with trading Pavs if we needed to in order to get/keep Drai.

If Drai is as good as he seems to be (I admit I'm not 100% sold), then none of those players matter to he frank. Let Jones and Pavs walk if need be.

 

[CrypTic]

If Drai is as good as he seems to be (I admit I'm not 100% sold), then none of those players matter to he frank. Let Jones and Pavs walk if need be.

Heh. I forgot Jones. Didn't scroll down far enough. He should have been with Hertl and Vlasic.

I'd definitely be willing to lose Pavs. I think the Sharks should consider trading him IAE. I'd be fine if Thornton, Marleau and Jones left unless they signed fairly cheaply. I'd guess that some of our young players will do well so may need extra $$ in the next four years. And we'd probably need to pay someone to take Boedker, which would be fine with me. I said at the time they got him that they should try him out and eat a loss if he didn't work out.

It might be do-able. I guess I still lean toward 10 or 11 M but it depends on what the team hears from his agent and other potential offers. Some of the Montreal fans want them to go after Drai too.