2017 NHL Draft - Part II

[y2kcanucks]

Those are about as valuable as these:

http://thehockeywriters.com/jake-virtanen-the-next-ones-2014-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

http://www.dobberprospects.com/jake-virtanen/

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=120197

With all due respect, these are sales pitches.

It's worth watching these players for yourself and formulating opinions of your own. Of course, it would help if you knew how to identify hockey IQ as others can.

Oh I've watched Patrick, and have liked what I have seen out of him. I also like what I've seen from Hischier too. But I'm not the one sitting here and making things up about a prospect that simply aren't true, just to hype my pet prospect who I've been hyping all year. And considering how wrong you were about McDavid and Matthews, I think I'll take my chances.

 

[JA]

Oh I've watched Patrick, and have liked what I have seen out of him. I also like what I've seen from Hischier too. But I'm not the one sitting here and making things up about a prospect that simply aren't true, just to hype my pet prospect who I've been hyping all year. And considering how wrong you were about McDavid and Matthews, I think I'll take my chances.

Who's making any thing up?




My detailed thoughts from the Sportsnet game a month ago, one of many viewings that I have had of this player:

I thought he had a very mediocre game. He created very little offensively and was very tentative. His passes were sloppy, and I don't think he had a shot on goal. Most of his shifts were spent hemmed in his own zone; his line was unable to sustain pressure in the offensive zone. I didn't see him carry it in once -- instead, he either dumped the puck in for someone else to retrieve it, or deferred the zone entry to another player. He wasn't around the puck much at all in this game, and part of it was because he stayed far too high up in the offensive zone; he didn't engage in the play or forecheck very hard. It seemed too much like he was waiting for others to create his chances for him in this game.

Rob Faulds interviewed Patrick just before the second period and asked him what the difference was between the two teams' starts. Patrick stated bluntly that the team, himself included, did not come out prepared, but needed to get things back on track. They did not.

The Wheat Kings had only one shot after the first period. After two periods, they had been outshot 29-8. The powerplay opportunities were 3 to 2 in favor of Moose Jaw.

It was a one-goal game with over a period remaining in the match, yet I didn't see him elevate his game today.

He was on the ice in the final two minutes as the Wheat Kings attempted to tie the game; the Warriors broke free for an odd-man rush and made the score 3-1. He played a very passive game today, and the Warriors were successfully able to contain him when he had the puck in the offensive zone; he wasn't given much time or space when he had the puck.

On a positive note, he won most of his faceoff attempts. He won the faceoff that resulted in Mattheos' goal. Clague shot the puck on net from the point and Mattheos deposited the rebound.

This was the Wheat Kings' only regular season match to be aired on Sportsnet this season. It was a sleeper for those who tuned in specifically to watch Patrick. The Warriors players, however, put on a show.

http://www.brandonsun.com/sports/wheat-kings/Warriors-beat-Wheat-Kins-3-1-413795493.html?thx=y

Warriors beat Wheat Kings 3-1
By: Perry Bergson
Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2017 at 11:10 PM

...

Stelio Mattheos had Brandon’s only goal as the Wheat Kings were badly outshot 34-16, including 12-1 in the first period in a game nationally televised on Sportsnet.

Brandon head coach David Anning said his team simply didn’t show up.

"I thought we were lacking energy, lacking enthusiasm and got caught standing around a lot," he said. "As a result, I thought our execution was poor and we played a slow game and we didn’t generate. We didn’t give ourselves a good enough chance here tonight."

...

 

[groovygoodwine]

bring on more old y2k posts,

it's comedic gold

 

[y2kcanucks]

Who's making any thing up?




My detailed thoughts from the Sportsnet game a month ago, one of many viewings that I have had of this player:

So a tough game or two means he's all of a sudden a lazy player now?

If we changed our opinions on players after one or two games there would never be a consensus about anything.

 

[Cogburn]

So how about that Klim Kostin fella?

 

[JA]

So a tough game or two means he's all of a sudden a lazy player now?

If we changed our opinions on players after one or two games there would never be a consensus about anything.

He's been having a tough season. Have you paid attention to him at all this year? Those tweets are also in response to three separate games, so comments about his passive play aren't unsubstantiated.

 

[y2kcanucks]

He's been having a tough season. Have you paid attention to him at all this year? Those tweets are also in response to three separate games, so comments about his passive play aren't unsubstantiated.

Offensively based on his pace, over 72 games he is on pace for 44 goals 57 assists, 101 points. If that's a tough year I don't know what to tell you.

Yes, he's dealt with injuries which have set him back a bit. I have acknowledged that if injuries are a serious concern, and team doctors aren't convinced that these won't be a problem for him going forward then Hischier makes sense. But the way you've been tearing down this player is completely baseless, sensationalist, and downright incorrect. Just like you were incorrect about McDavid and Matthews.

Nolan Patrick was the WHL playoff MVP last year. He was a shutdown C who produced elite offensive numbers. Over his junior career he has played extremely well defensively. A couple games doesn't change that.

I have even seen comments about Hischier playing like a perimeter player, or being soft on the backcheck. Does that mean I should conclude that he's a soft, perimeter player who is defensively lazy? Hell no! I pay attention to the larger body of work.

 

[SgtToody]

Why suggest that people look up an old, detailed analysis of Nolan Patrick's game that you've apparently already written when you don't want to talk about old posts?

I don't think you've ever offered an analysis of his game. If it existed, you would cite it. Saying that it exists doesn't make it exist.

If you disagree with another person's analysis of the player, then offer your own and we can compare our observations.

On the topic of GIFs, I have used them to illustrate the type of player that Nico Hischier is amidst claims by such posters that he plays like Nik Ehlers or "lacks physicality." The "retired player" in my GIFs is the subject of a comparison to Hischier on the basis of their grit and fearlessness -- something Ehlers does not possess. The convenience of GIFs is that they can be used to highlight a particular sequence and they play automatically. Hence, I can illustrate a point without having to construct a comprehensive video presentation.

Here's a GIF of a player who racked up enormous totals in the WHL while being perhaps one of the laziest highly-touted prospects of all time.

He scored 73 goals, 134 points in 68 games in his draft season with the Calgary Hitmen while stuffing his face with hot dogs, apple dumplings, and Czech pasta and having rarely ever been in his defensive end.

Patrick is nowhere near as lazy as Brendl was, but your point that a player can't score by being lazy in the WHL is categorically false.

Dropping "Phil" Esposito into a comparison and trying to make it negative is a huge laugh. Espo was an elite playmaker and very good puck handler who yes benefitted from being on Orr's team (aka the Greatest Hockey Player of all time),but there's no denying Boston relied on his possession game and offensive flare. Garbage goals? Oh yeh, Espo could finish those but he also generated a tonne of quality points -- his 76-76= 152 shattered the previous best, which he set. And what he did at the Summit Series gets lost in all the Henderson recaps, but w/o Orr Espo carried that team. And he was out of shape and a complete piece of work. So if you want to compare anyone from this draft to Espo, you can't pay much more of a compliment in my eyes.

 

[JA]

Offensively based on his pace, over 72 games he is on pace for 44 goals 57 assists, 101 points. If that's a tough year I don't know what to tell you.

Yes, he's dealt with injuries which have set him back a bit. I have acknowledged that if injuries are a serious concern, and team doctors aren't convinced that these won't be a problem for him going forward then Hischier makes sense. But the way you've been tearing down this player is completely baseless, sensationalist, and downright incorrect. Just like you were incorrect about McDavid and Matthews.

The only sensationalism comes from the one who believes that Nolan Patrick is a 70-point player in the mold of Jonathan Toews -- the person who also called Sam Reinhart an 80-point franchise player worth relinquishing Bo Horvat and the 2014 sixth-overall pick to acquire.

Multiple sources have been quoted as saying he has had lazy games. I have personally viewed lazy performances from him. I spoke very plainly about his strengths and weaknesses this year in my report yesterday. Injuries may have contributed to his hesitant behavior on the ice, but no one knows for certain at this point.

He has had a tough year -- half of the season missed due to injury, at times uninspired play, and regression in his statistics.

Got some points against the raiders but didn't look like anything special. Was the second star of the game but can't recall any moment where he looked head and shoulders above the competition.

I feel bad for how many injuries this guy has had...but at the same time, he's been straight-up disappointing this season, and when I see him play, he simply does not look like 1OA material whatsoever...

I've said it before, it he reminds me so much of Sean Couturier.

Coots is a good player, and so is Patrick, but I'd expect more from a potential top pick.

No not off one game. I think I've seen Patrick around 25-30 times, at least 10 live in person.

If you remember Coots in junior he was thought as a two way player with good but not stellar offence. Similar to Patrick. Coots had 96 points in 58 games in his draft year. When he got to the next level his offence didn't translate as a #1. He became a good two-way 2C. I think Patrick will likely end up very similar. I think the comparison is very fair. You may be underrating Couturier.

I echo the comments by Mozes,

I've seen Patrick quite bit as well and I just do not see anymore gears of offensive talent to be worthy of a 1st overall pick. This doesn't mean he's going suck or anything like, but he really reminds me of Jordan Staal and that is the type of player I would not pick 1st overall. A bit timid, not enough dynamic ability, and isn't that engaged in the play either.

[/B]
welcome to the party. I've been saying that for 2 years. If he does indeed go 1OA, it will be a shame if he plays in the NHL next year. He needs more development time, otherwise it will be Yakupov 2.0. with idiot NHL GMs repeating the same mistakes over and over again. Well, maybe not as bad as Yakupov, but you get the idea.

I'd give him his 9 games of course, but then send him back to junior...

come back the following year, 9 games and then some time in the AHL for a spell.

From my 2 recent viewings of Patrick. I can see why there is a question of overall upside by some scouts. He only had 1 point in the games I saw. You want to see more from a projected #1 pick.

I made the comparison of Patrick to Johansen earlier, and they are similar to me.

Ryan went #4 OA in 2010 off of 69 points in 71 games. Stats even more underwhelming than Patrick's.

Johansen to me is a #1B or elite #2C. I see the same for Patrick if he progresses as well to my comparable.

I would say the doom and gloom is a bit premature. He missed all of the offseason die to surgery and then shortly into the season got injured for a significant period. It doesn't surprise me that he's fading physically down the stretch. If he's able to have a healthy offseason I think he'll be back looking good.

I think be should probably sit for the rest of the season. He hasn't looked right since coming back after the first handful of games. His game is nowhere close to what his has been in the past. I still take him number one without a doubt.

 

[y2kcanucks]

The only sensationalism comes from the one who believes that Nolan Patrick is a 70-point player in the mold of Jonathan Toews -- the person who also called Sam Reinhart an 80-point franchise player worth relinquishing Bo Horvat and the 2014 sixth-overall pick to acquire.

Multiple sources have been quoted as saying he has had lazy games. I have personally viewed lazy performances from him. I spoke very plainly about his strengths and weaknesses this year in my report yesterday. Injuries may have contributed to his hesitant behavior on the ice, but no one knows for certain at this point.

He has had a tough year -- half of the season missed due to injury, at times uninspired play, and regression in his statistics.

Okay then. You believe what you want to believe. I've seen enough of your posts in the past that I've learned to not trust your judgment of top draft talent, and that's based on your comments about McDavid and Matthews which I posted in the previous thread. To think that you would have passed on Matthews to draft Puljujarvi, and possibly passing on McDavid to take Eichel makes me confident that you're probably wrong about Patrick too. Well that and my own viewings of him as well as insight from multiple sources and multiple scouts who all love Patrick as an excellent two way, future top line C. Just don't be annoyed when I tell you I told ya so.

 

[JA]

Okay then. You believe what you want to believe. I've seen enough of your posts in the past that I've learned to not trust your judgment of top draft talent, and that's based on your comments about McDavid and Matthews which I posted in the previous thread. To think that you would have passed on Matthews to draft Puljujarvi, and possibly passing on McDavid to take Eichel makes me confident that you're probably wrong about Patrick too. Well that and my own viewings of him as well as insight from multiple sources and multiple scouts who all love Patrick as an excellent two way, future top line C. Just don't be annoyed when I tell you I told ya so.

I would caution others not to put any stock into your opinions. Your lack of ability to analyze Patrick's game in any manner of depth and refusal to cite any past analyses you may or may not have done speaks volumes, especially as you are on record as saying you can not assess hockey IQ.

You seem so interested in unearthing other people's posts but won't offer any of your own. There are an abundance of your posts on the previous page if anyone wants to have a look at your track record.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=129728659&postcount=935

Patrick's games have been available on a nightly basis thanks to Neulion, so I have watched many of his matches this year. If anyone wants to have a look at three of Patrick's performances this season, they can do so here.

http://whl.neulion.com/whl/home




These are among some of his better performances this season. As the season has progressed, his play has become more timid -- especially in the last month, when he recorded just 20 points in his last 18 games and had a plus-minus rating of -6. Let's allow others to view his play here and chime in.

 

[BerSTUzzi]

for the win...

 

[Gunner Stahl]

Y2KCanucks = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMTkedIUX8U

^

JetsAlternate = the girl
Y2KCanucks = the guy

Entertaining read fellas. JetsAlternate has won the battle, looking forwards to the ongoing war...

 

[ginner classic]

And the obnoxious debate rears itself. Can you guys put each other on ignore for the benefit of all of humanity.

Hischier is not Pavel Bure and Patrick is not infallible and it's OK for someone to rate Hischier higher. This may be a Travis Zajac vs Nazem Kadri debate so some perspective might be helpful.

 

[Hansen]

inb4 neither of them amount to anything

 

[y2kcanucks]

I would caution others not to put any stock into your opinions. Your lack of ability to analyze Patrick's game in any manner of depth and refusal to cite any past analyses you may or may not have done speaks volumes, especially as you are on record as saying you can not assess hockey IQ.

You seem so interested in unearthing other people's posts but won't offer any of your own. There are an abundance of your posts on the previous page if anyone wants to have a look at your track record.

This is very rich coming from someone who was proven wrong about the last two elite franchise 1st overall picks. You were down on McDavid, you were down on Matthews. I've proven you were wrong with those picks, and yet you ignore that. I have posted why I think Patrick will be a 1C and have cited numerous sources that suggest the same. For some reason you disagree, because you didn't like his game the one or two times you watched him.

Oh well. If the type of analysis I'm lacking is the same analysis that led you to rate Puljujarvi ahead of Auston Matthews then I'm happy I lack that analysis If the type of analysis I'm lacking is the same analysis that led you to believe Connor McDavid would struggle at the NHL level because of how he was getting a lot of his points in junior, then I'm glad I'm lacking in that analysis. Would be funny to see you compare McDavid today to Crosby in his rookie year. Crosby, the guy who scored most of his goals from in closer to the net in his rookie year, would be dubbed as not having that great of a shot. A couple years later he pots 40 goals. Oh well. I'll continue to lack in that analysis, and continue to be right.

Nobody is perfect, everyone has their misses. The difference is I can admit that I was wrong about Nylander, and even Ehlers. For some reason you think that you can dig up some posts about a couple of my misses and expose me, while ignoring the two HUGE misses where you doubled down, tripled down even on how the previous two first overall picks weren't that great? Well then....that's funny. And it leaves zero confidence in your ability to get this one right, especially when, once again you're going against the grain. I suppose it's not always a bad thing to go against the general consensus, except for when you're blatantly wrong. Two years in a row you were wrong, so why not go for three?

 

[groovygoodwine]

And the obnoxious debate rears itself. Can you guys put each other on ignore for the benefit of all of humanity.

Hischier is not Pavel Bure and Patrick is not infallible and it's OK for someone to rate Hischier higher. This may be a Travis Zajac vs Nazem Kadri debate so some perspective might be helpful.

y2k doesn't deal in opinions or perspectives, he only deals in his opinion being absolute authority on truth.

It's like trying to rationally explain a logical fallacy to an extremist.

 

[ihaveyuidonttouchme]

inb4 neither of them amount to anything

this is true when it's really hard to take one's complete one sided opinion that will do everything in their power to down other's

 

[CanaFan]

y2k doesn't deal in opinions or perspectives, he only deals in his opinion being absolute authority on truth.

It's like trying to rationally explain a logical fallacy to an extremist.

To be fair I think both posters are entrenched in their positions on this one and the thread-eating wall of texts are less about an actual discussion and more about who can throw up the biggest wall of noise.

The fallacy is in thinking we can predict player's outcomes from current data. We can't. If we could we'd have ignored Hodgson's godly D+1 season and been over the moon when we drafted Hutton in the 5th. So much of what determines if a player becomes successful or a failure happens AFTER the draft. We only look at the outcomes and our cognitive biases tell us we should have seen the telltale signs beforehand.

Outside of Patrick's groin issues - which are a fair concern - there isn't much that is a concrete red flag. A bit of disinterested play from a third year junior who lost at last year's Mem Cup is hardly groundbreaking.

Hischier is certainly having the more impressive season and has fairly inserted himself into the discussion for top pick but he also has a shorter track record to base analysis on than Patrick. How will he respond to returning from a serious injury or the pressure of Mem Cup expectations? At the moment he is the dark horse and that can be an easier role to play.

Honestly I'm not persuaded by either poster's walls of quotes as the attempts to discredit each other and win the argument are more prominent than any of the arguments about either player.

 

[y2kcanucks]

To be fair I think both posters are entrenched in their positions on this one and the thread-eating wall of texts are less about an actual discussion and more about who can throw up the biggest wall of noise.

The fallacy is in thinking we can predict player's outcomes from current data. We can't. If we could we'd have ignored Hodgson's godly D+1 season and been over the moon when we drafted Hutton in the 5th. So much of what determines if a player becomes successful or a failure happens AFTER the draft. We only look at the outcomes and our cognitive biases tell us we should have seen the telltale signs beforehand.

Outside of Patrick's groin issues - which are a fair concern - there isn't much that is a concrete red flag. A bit of disinterested play from a third year junior who lost at last year's Mem Cup is hardly groundbreaking.

Hischier is certainly having the more impressive season and has fairly inserted himself into the discussion for top pick but he also has a shorter track record to base analysis on than Patrick. How will he respond to returning from a serious injury or the pressure of Mem Cup expectations? At the moment he is the dark horse and that can be an easier role to play.

Honestly I'm not persuaded by either poster's walls of quotes as the attempts to discredit each other and win the argument are more prominent than any of the arguments about either player.

The difference is I'm not trying to suggest Hischier isn't a good prospect. I've stated I have him ranked number 2, and wouldn't be upset if the Canucks take him number over Patrick. While my preference is Nolan Patrick, given the concerns about his injury history I could understand taking Hischier. I'm just speaking out against someone who's overly negative on Patrick to the point where he's blowing a bad period or two way out of proportion. And coming from someone who has a history of downgrading consensus number 1's in the past (Matthews, McDavid) and being hilariously wrong in doing so, I place zero value in that kind of analysis.

I've stated that Nolan Patrick reminds me of an Eric Staal/Jonathan Toews type of player. Someone who will score around 70 points while playing very well defensively. It's consistent with his role in Brandon, and it recognizes his offensive potential which is based on his production since arriving in the WHL.

I also recognize that Nico Hischier is an explosive prospect who looks like he can be a big time offensive prospect. I don't really have much of a comparison for him, but I'm also not going to post countless gif's trying to compare him to Pavel Bure either.

 

[Canucks LB]

y2k doesn't deal in opinions or perspectives, he only deals in his opinion being absolute authority on truth.

It's like trying to rationally explain a logical fallacy to an extremist.

Y2k seems right about this tho imo

 

[Zombotron]

inb4 neither of them amount to anything

inb4 we use a top-two pick on one, and mittelstadt ends up being better than both

 

[y2kcanucks]

inb4 we use a top-two pick on one, and mittelstadt ends up being better than both

inb4 we get a top-two pick and use it on Liljegren.

 

[ginner classic]

y2k doesn't deal in opinions or perspectives, he only deals in his opinion being absolute authority on truth.

It's like trying to rationally explain a logical fallacy to an extremist.

That does not bother me much. A lot of us have too much courage in our convictions for armchair scouts. What does annoy me is wasting space re-hashing tired debates between two people that adds no value to the boards. They need to take it to IM.

 

[ginner classic]

The difference is I'm not trying to suggest Hischier isn't a good prospect. I've stated I have him ranked number 2, and wouldn't be upset if the Canucks take him number over Patrick. While my preference is Nolan Patrick, given the concerns about his injury history I could understand taking Hischier. I'm just speaking out against someone who's overly negative on Patrick to the point where he's blowing a bad period or two way out of proportion. And coming from someone who has a history of downgrading consensus number 1's in the past (Matthews, McDavid) and being hilariously wrong in doing so, I place zero value in that kind of analysis.

I've stated that Nolan Patrick reminds me of an Eric Staal/Jonathan Toews type of player. Someone who will score around 70 points while playing very well defensively. It's consistent with his role in Brandon, and it recognizes his offensive potential which is based on his production since arriving in the WHL.

I also recognize that Nico Hischier is an explosive prospect who looks like he can be a big time offensive prospect. I don't really have much of a comparison for him, but I'm also not going to post countless gif's trying to compare him to Pavel Bure either.

Please for the love of god.....use the ignore feature for that other poster or take it to IM.