2016 Draft Discussion - Mid Season Rankings

[BertCorbeau]

Continue here

Mid Season McKenzie: http://www.tsn.ca/tsn-mid-season-draft-rankings-topped-by-big-three-1.435206

VIDEO Reference of prospects (thanks Seer)

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1999425
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2012331
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2020125


Auston Matthews, here we come (errrr, playoffs?)



Here is our current draft picks

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Future/MapleLeafs.htm

Round 1
Leafs
Pens* contingent on Pens making playoffs

Round 2
Leafs

Round 3
Leafs
Devils (via Pitt)

Round 4
Leafs

Round 5
Leafs
Ducks

Round 6
Leafs
Blues

Round 7
Leafs
Lightning* If Ashton plays 15 games for Lightning -- playing for Nizhny Novgorod Torpedo so probably not going to get in 15 games with the Bolts.

RK|PLAYER|TEAM|POS|HT|WT|GP|G|P
1|*Auston Matthews|Zurich (Suisse A)|C|6'1½|194|31|24|40
2|*Patrik Laine|Tappara (SM-Liiga)|RW|6'4|206|35|13|27
3|Jesse Puljujärvi|Karpat (SM-Liiga)|RW|6'3 ½|203|41|8|20
4|*Matthew Tkachuk|London (OHL)|LW|6'1|195|38|16|70
5|*Jakob Chychrun|Sarnia (OHL)|D|6'2|215|47|9|34
6|*Alexander Nylander|Mississuaga (OHL)|LW/RW|6'0 ½|179|44|26|61
7|*Olli Juolevi|London (OHL)|D|6'2 ½|179|39|5|28
8|*Pierre-Luc Dubois|C. Breton (QMJHL)|LW|6'2 ½|202|50|30|72
9|*Michael McLeod|Mississuaga (OHL)|C|6'2|188|50|19|56
10|*Julien Gauthier|Val d'Or (QMJHL)|RW|6'3 ½|225|38|36|46
11|*Jake Bean|Calgary (WHL)|D|6'1|173|51|19|46
12|*Mikhail Sergachev|Windsor (OHL)|D|6'2 ½|206|50|14|41
13|*Tyson Jost|Penticton (BCHL)|C|5'11|191|41|34|86
14|*Charlie McAvoy|Boston U (NCAA)|D|6'1*|208|25|2|14
15|*Clayton Keller|USA NTDP (USHL)|C|5'9 ½|168|39|27|76
16|*Max Jones|London (OHL)|LW|6'3|205|45|21|39
17|*Dante Fabbro|Penticton (BCHL)|D|6'0|189|38|13|59
18|*Kieffer Bellows|USA NTDP (USHL)|LW|6'0|196|40|32|54
19|Luke Kunin|Wisconsin (NCAA)|C/RW|6'0|193|23|10|19
20|*Logan Brown|Windsor (OHL)|C|6'6|222|42|10|48
21|*Riley Tufte|Blaine (USHSW)|LW|6'5|205|21|36|60
22|Logan Stanley|Windsor (OHL)|D|6'7|220|48|5|16
23|*German Rubtsov|Russia U-18 (MHL)|C|6'2|176|18|9|20
24|*Dillon Dube|Kelowna (WHL)|LW|5'10*|180|46|21|49
25|*Rasmus Asplund|Farjestad (SHL)|C|5'11|176|36|4|10
26|Pascal Laberge|Victoriaville (QMJHL)|C/RW|6'1|162|40|16|48
27|*Libor Hájek|Saskatoon (WHL)|D|6'2|185|52|3|20
28|*Tage Thompson|Connecticut (NCAA)|C|6'5|185|28|10|24
29|Nathan Bastian|Mississauga (OHL)|RW|6'4|208|49|15|47
30|*Alex DeBrincat|Erie (OHL)|C/RW|5'7|163|41|38|68
31|*Brett Howden|Moose Jaw (WHL)|C|6'2|193|50|18|46
32|*Taylor Raddysh|Erie (OHL)|RW|6'2|203|48|18|56
33|*Markus Niemeläinen|Saginaw (OHL)|D|6'5|189|51|1|24
34|*Tyler Benson|Vancouver (WHL)|LW|6'0|201|28|8|26
35|*Carter Hart|Everett (WHL)|G|6'0 ½|177|49|1.96|0.925
36|Lucas Johansen|Kelowna (WHL)|D|6'1|176|50|8|23
37|*Kale Clague|Brandon (WHL)|D|6'0|177|52|3|20
38|*Carl Grundström|Modo (QMJHL)|RW|6'0|194|39|6|12
39|Dennis Cholowski|Chilliwack (BCHL)|D|6'0*|170|39|7|30
40|*Will Bitten|*Flint (OHL)|C/RW|5'10|167|49|21|48
41|*Sam Steel|Regina (WHL)|C|5'11|177|52|19|49
42|Jordan Kyrou|Sarnia (OHL)|RW|6'0|175|47|13|34
43|*Filip Gustavsson|Luleå (SWE-J20)|G|6'2|184|16|3.58|0.881
44|Boris Katchouk|S.S. Marie (OHL)|LW|6'1|181|47|19|41
45|Samuel Girard|Shawinigan (QMJHL)|D|5'9|165|50|6|50
46|Sean Day|Mississauga (OHL)|D|6'3|230|42|3|14
47|*Chad Krys|USA NTDP (USHL)|D|5'11|185|31|2|18
48|Evan Fitzpatrick|Sherbrooke (QMJHL)|G|6'4|206|41|3.28|0.901
49|Josh Anderson|Prince George (WHL)|D|6'3|210|39|1|6
50|*Luke Green|Saint John (QMJHL)|D|6'0*|189|37|8|22
51|*Trent Frederic|USA NTDP (USHL)|C|6'2|203|38|14|28
52|Vitalii Abramov|Gatineau (QMJHL)|RW|5'9|170|31|44|75
53|Zach Sawchenko|Moose Jaw (WHL)|G|6'1|179|36|2.97|0.917
54|Tim Gettinger|S.S. Marie (OHL)|LW|6'6|202|42|11|28
55|Dylan Wells|Peterborough (OHL)|G|6'2|182|21|4.46|0.877
56|*Ryan Lindgren|USA NTDP (USHL)|D|6'0|198|38|4|16
57|Adam Mascherin|Kitchener (OHL)|LW|5'9 ½|206|47|27|61
58|*Noah Gregor|Moose Jaw (WHL)|C|6'0*|180|54|21|49
59|Adam Fox|USA NTDP (USHL)|D|5'10|183|41|7|42
60|Jack Kopacka|S.S. Marie (OHL)|LW|6'2|190|49|15|29

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1161253

New Lottery Rules for 2016

NHL announces changes to Draft Lottery format
Under phase-in plan, odds will be adjusted to reflect increasing competitive balance in 2015; Lottery will be expanded to determine first three selections in 2016

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795

Click to read more...

 

[meefer]

moving up in the draft

I believe the Leafs have 11 picks in the upcoming draft. The assumption is by the TDL we'll have increased that number of picks (perhaps substantially) but I suspect Lou will be looking at picks for this years draft and next years draft and thus this year we will end up with around 12/13 picks and an additional 1/2 picks next year based on his efforts. This does not include what he'll be doing in the off season nor his moves next year at the TDL. If so, this results in a monstrous number of picks to find gems. However, it also causes difficulties, specifically, how to sign all these players to contracts. I'm of the opinion that one cure for this 'happy' problem is to see if there's a trading partner at this years draft who would like to move their #1 for a collection of our lesser picks. For example, would you be willing to offer Pittsburgh's 1st and our 2 2nds for a top 5 pick, or more likely Pittsburgh's 1st and a 2nd for a 6-10 pick? Additional ammo is available from our current crop of prospects. Essentially, I'm hoping to acquire top end talent (who isn't?) at the expense of playing the odds to find that 'gem'. If we were lucky enough to get Matthews, I'd love to see Lou gamble on getting a Laine/Pulj/Chych/Nylander or Sergachev to help boost the high end levels.

As an afterthought, if we get the 2nd overall pick, would you see if whoever picked 1st would trade Matthews for our 2nd and the Pens 1st? Would a + be needed?

 

[BlueBaron]

The drop from Matthews is pretty big so he/1rst is unlikely to be traded. Also keep in mind we have penalties to pay for Lou and Babcock .

History suggests it is unlikely we move up, you may recall moving up to get schenn at 5 cost us a 2nd and a 3rd on top of our pick, that is pretty steep so to get to first over all....yeah maybe 2 firsts (ours included) and a 2nd might get it done in a normal draft but not for Matthews IMO.

I do not see our guys wanting to part with picks, if anything I see them dumping more contracts to make room.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

It would take more than a 1st and 2 2nds for a top 10 pick.

The Pitts pick even at 16th is not good enough to move up that much on the back of two 2nd round picks. You would have to add in a prospect.

No one will trade the Matthews pick. That's not going to happen. It wouldn't even happen for the 2nd overall pick (if we had it).

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

What Matthews has done so far is VERY impressing.

As an American, moving to Europe and put up the numbers he has done, 23 goals, 15 assists for 38 points in 31 games is fantastic.

Difficult to compare leagues but the Swizz NLA is comparable to the Finnish Liiga in terms of quality and Laine and Puljujarvi the other top prospects who have the benefit of playing on teams they are already familiar with has produced less.

Auston Matthews NLA, 31 GP, 23 G, 15 A, 38 P 1,22 PPG
Patrik Laine Liiga 35 GP, 13 G, 14 A, 27 P 0,77 PPG
Jesse Puljujärvi Liiga 41 GP, 8 G, 12 A, 20 P 0,48 PPG

No one will trade the 1st overall.

 

[meefer]

The drop from Matthews is pretty big so he/1rst is unlikely to be traded. Also keep in mind we have penalties to pay for Lou and Babcock .

I believe we have the next 2 years to pay off the penalties but am happy to learn otherwise - knowledge never hurts.

Thanks to those for their input.

 

[janesy12]

The drop from Matthews is pretty big so he/1rst is unlikely to be traded. Also keep in mind we have penalties to pay for Lou and Babcock .

History suggests it is unlikely we move up, you may recall moving up to get schenn at 5 cost us a 2nd and a 3rd on top of our pick, that is pretty steep so to get to first over all....yeah maybe 2 firsts (ours included) and a 2nd might get it done in a normal draft but not for Matthews IMO.

I do not see our guys wanting to part with picks, if anything I see them dumping more contracts to make room.

Actually, the drop from Matthews may not be that big. According to McKenzie who surveyed scouts:

We asked those 10 scouts if Matthews at No. 1 was an “easy call” or “had to think long and hard about it.”
They were pretty much evenly split.
"Had to think long and hard about it,” said another scout. “Laine is right there. In the end, we favoured the centre over the winger but I don’t think it’s a reach at all to see Laine going first overall. A lot of our European scouts who see these guys think Laine is better.”

 

[King Leaf]

But from having watched him like a vulture on and off the ice. Let me say this.

I would rather have Strome and Mcleod, than Auston Matthews. MUCH.

Not going into why all that much. It won't win me anyone anyways. And its too early in the morning.

But I will say, there are some here, who agree with me that this McLeod kid is amazing and homegrown.

Kane has yeah turned into something just amazing. And really always has been. But the key to Chicago's success has been nine top players per year, that are amazing.

That is the key to Stanley Cup Success, not a great two or three.

NINE

NINE

Not two or three.

Yes, but like Chicsgo, it would be better for us to have a good Top 9 AND 4-5 elite players on the roster.

 

[SprDaVE]

Whoever is first overall will not trade the pick. We have this discussion every ****ing year.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

If we end up with say a pick in the 6-8 range I would be all in on Sergachev and then pick up Rubtsov with the Pens pick.

 

[Liminality]

I was the biggest critic of Mats Sundin and Luke Schenn in Leaf chatboard history.

Having raised all the money for the Leaf away from home fun spot, a restaurant downtown in Toronto, gave me that luxury.

My personal feeling is that both were very nice guys, but way overrated. All of hockey agrees with me now, about Luke Schenn. But Mats Sundin? Almost no one, agrees.

So lets just leaf it at that, re: Mats

But from having watched him like a vulture on and off the ice. Let me say this.

I would rather have Strome and Mcleod, than Auston Matthews. MUCH.

Not going into why all that much. It won't win me anyone anyways. And its too early in the morning.

But I will say, there are some here, who agree with me that this McLeod kid is amazing and homegrown.

Kane has yeah turned into something just amazing. And really always has been. But the key to Chicago's success has been nine top players per year, that are amazing.

That is the key to Stanley Cup Success, not a great two or three.

NINE

NINE

Not two or three.

The Chicago Blackhawks in their cup runs had these players who I consider the core of their success. Crawford, Hossa, Kane, Keith, Sharp, Toews. They have quality and quantity. You need both but the Leafs don't have anyone yet who's truly a top tier quality player. Matthews is potentially a top 5 player in the NHL in a couple of years and I'd say his potential is safer than Strome's or McLeod's.

If Matthews was Canadian would that change anything?

 

[TheCLAM]

Agreed. Tkachuk does not impress me. Put Alex Nylander on that line in London instead of Tkachuk this year and tell me who gets the higher ranking tonight.

Nylander>Tkachuk for me. You have to see his skills live. His explosive skating and elite shot with hockey IQ make a very nice package.

I like Nylander skill-set better

It's not really fair to say put "Nylander" on London. Clearly, Tkachuk thrives in London system.. Sometimes it's more about players fitting into the right system, however, you draft these players in the mid-later rounds

 

[SprDaVE]

I really like anyone in that top 7. A few players I'd switch around but overall we'll get a great player to keep this train going. There's a bit of a drop off after the top 6/7 though, and the drop off is even bigger after the top 12 or so. There are some interesting names in the #15-25 range but overall, this draft isn't very deep at a first glance.

 

[ULF_55]

I really like anyone in that top 10. A few players I'd switch around but overall we'll get a great player to keep this train going.

I know it's like guaranteed a great Christmas/Birthday/Graduation/Wedding gift you know you're going to get regardless of what it is.

Maybe even top 12 ... even the Penguins pick could bring a nice piece ... hopefully some great insight from Hunter and Vuori.

Maybe steal a top Euro that is flying under the radar.

Meanwhile, other defencemen are stepping up.

Juolevi was brilliant for Finland at the World Juniors. Three of the 10 scouts surveyed by TSN had Juolevi as their top blueliner. Some of the others who opted for Chychrun said it was a tough call and Juolevi is coming on strong, as are No. 11 ranked Jake Bean of the Calgary Hitmen, No. 12-ranked Russian Mikhail Sergachev of the Windsor Spitfires and No. 14 ranked Charlie McAvoy of Boston University.

“Bean is really an interesting guy,” a scout said, noting Bean’s 19 goals in 51 games this season. “So is Sergachev in Windsor. Those two guys could push both Chychrun and Juolevi.”

 

[Mathew]

Thanks*

 

[X66]

Outside of the big 3, I wouldn't mind any of the players slotted 4-8

We could use them all.

 

[Drew311]

Pretty crazy to think the Leafs might have ~15 draft picks after the trade deadline. Could be a franchise changing draft.

 

[ULF_55]

Pretty crazy to think the Leafs might have ~15 draft picks after the trade deadline. Could be a franchise changing draft.

So would you rather have 5 first round picks or those 15 over 7 rounds?

 

[Drew311]

So would you rather have 5 first round picks or those 15 over 7 rounds?

With Bergman/Hunter's ability to find gems in the later rounds, I would be comfortable with 15 picks....it's a tough decision. But ultimately i'd go with the 5 1st rounders. A lot of upside in the first 25 picks of this draft.

 

[TheCLAM]

So would you rather have 5 first round picks or those 15 over 7 rounds?

5 first rounds because I would use 3 and then pawn off 2 of them for more depth in the draft

 

[ULF_55]

With Bergman/Hunter's ability to find gems in the later rounds, I would be comfortable with 15 picks....it's a tough decision. But ultimately i'd go with the 5 1st rounders. A lot of upside in the first 25 picks of this draft.

I read recently odds are 80% you get a player out of the 1st. round.

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144


And that includes drafts where the GM is a gaseous balloon of hot stink.

 

[613Leafer]

I read recently odds are 80% you get a player out of the 1st. round.

http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144


And that includes drafts where the GM is a gaseous balloon of hot stink.

That's likely heavily skewed by the top 10 picks. Id be curious to see the longterm stats for top 10 picks vs 11th-20th OA vs 21st-30th OA vs etc.

 

[WilliamNylander]

Walking out of this draft with Laine and Rubtsov would be amazing.

Outside shot at Hart with our second and then try and hit on some defenders in the 3rd with our two picks.

 

[SEER]

Another new 2016 Draft Prospect video.., for a few of the requests I've had in here...

Clayton Keller
Forward -- shoots L
Born Jul 29 1998 -- Swanson, IL
17 yrs. ago
Height 5.10 -- Weight 170

RECENT STATS: (*Up to Feb. 9th 2016)

2015-16 U.S. National Development Team - USHL
16 Games... 11 Goals... 21 Assists... 32 Points... +18 *PPG+
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-16 U.S. National U18 Team - USDP
40 Games... 27 Goals... 50 Assists... 77 Points... 0 *PPG+

Breakin' Through: Clayton Keller 2014-2016 Highlights - 2016 NHL Draft Prospect

 

[Warden of the North]

......well we've got a big hole on D now.