Prospect Info: 2016 Annual Prospect Poll #5

[Sojourn]

Maybe there was no need to get serious about his conditioning? I mean, why do you think parents move to different countries in order to give their kid the best opportunity to make it into the NHL? It's because a player is only going to be as good as the competition he's facing. Ritchie was fairly dominant in the OHL at a very young age. There was very little need for him to improve his conditioning and, instead, he clearly focused on other parts of his game. Being out of shape is a real easy fix. Being a poor skater, shooter and passer of the puck is not. With Ritchie, you're looking at the former, not the latter.

I fail to see how Ritchie has been overrated. Like I said, he was fairly dominant in the OHL at a very young age. He wasn't McDavid or Marner by an stretch, but he also wasn't some over-sized Logan Brown type that overly relied upon his size to get the goals, which is something you seem to be suggesting. His skill-set is pretty unique actually for a man of his size. When you say that PWFs like Ritchie are the most likely to fail, I really think you need to go back and have a look at his OHL game and how he's look in the AHL. The most common PWFs to fail are those akin to Jones, who rely on their strength to get goals. Ritchie rarely would make those driving plays that Max does and often scored at range using his NHL level shot. In the AHL, he's been extremely creative and, again, uses his NHL level shot to get goals.

My biggest gripe with everything you've said is that you say you're "extremely unconvinced" about Ritchie, but then only complain about his conditioning. That's weak. You don't have to learn to be well-conditioned, you just do it. It's not like skating or passing or shooting, which takes years to perfect. It's not something he can't change, like being undersized. It's not some hockey sense issue that is unlikely to improve. By comparison, it's really easy to get fit. It just takes dedication and I don't know how you can say that Ritchie isn't dedicated based on how tenacious he was in all his NHL games, how he improved over the course of those 33 games and his recent comments regarding his training.

To me, it sounds like you watched 33 games of Ritchie in the NHL as a 19/20 year old and, because he explode onto the scene like McDavid or Eichel, you feel he's a bust just waiting to be exposed. I'm not saying that Ritchie is destined to be a superstar in the NHL. All I'm saying is maybe ease up on the kid. PWF always take longer to develop.

I doubt that very much. I'm sure Ritchie has been able to rely more on his size and skill at the CHL level, and that has allowed him to get away with not being as conditioned, but I just flat out don't buy that there wasn't a need to get serious about his conditioning before now. At all.

Ritchie has been a Ducks prospect now for 2 years. This is now his third off-season with the team. After that first prospect camp, you can bet he was told by the coaches he needed to improve his conditioning. In fact, you can bet every prospect is told by the coaches/trainers that this is the case. If Ritchie didn't take the coaches/trainers seriously, that's his own damn fault, and it really isn't an excuse. These are guys who have seen a lot of young, and talented players come through, and they know what prospects need to do to get ready for the NHL. Careers have been derailed because of players who didn't put in the work off the ice.

There is no doubt in my mind that Ritchie can be a good player, but I'm not as quick to dismiss this as an easy fix. Yes, working on your conditioning is easier than becoming a better skater, or improving your shot. But staying conditioned is a full-time responsibility. In other words, Ritchie doesn't just need to be willing to work hard in the off-season. He needs to be willing to work hard all the time. If his poor conditioning is a lack of awareness, fine. He wouldn't be the first player who is a little slow to realize that being well-conditioned doesn't give you an edge in the NHL anymore, because it's become the norm. On the other hand, if it's a work ethic problem, that's something that will keep bleeding through. He'll keep trying to cut corners, and the end result will be a player who just isn't as good as he could have been.

I have no idea which is the case here. I don't think anyone here can answer that. But I don't think it's quite as simple as you're making it. I think people have a reason to be concerned that he's in his third off-season as an NHL prospect, and only now are we hearing that he's working hard off the ice. That's not really what I want to hear about a professional athlete.

 

[AngelDuck]

I can't think of an EFFECTIVE NHL player that has as much fat on him as Ritchie does right now. He needs to be on an intense training regimen.

My guess is Carlyle is the best possible coach for his career

 

[Sojourn]

I can't think of an EFFECTIVE NHL player that has as much fat on him as Ritchie does right now. He needs to be on an intense training regimen.

My guess is Carlyle is the best possible coach for his career

How do you know how much fat Ritchie has?

As for players carrying extra weight, or who have carried extra weight... Penner, Doughty, Byfuglien, Kessel, Ovechkin.

 

[snarktacular]

So you're saying that when a player ignores his bosses for two years in a row, that concerns you? Nah, it's more likely he just never did it because he never needed to.

 

[Sojourn]

So you're saying that when a player ignores his bosses for two years in a row, that concerns you? Nah, it's more likely he just never did it because he never needed to.

Hah. That might be a bit unfair. It may not be that he ignored him, so much as he didn't take it to heart and/or make it a priority. Admittedly, I'm trying to give Ritchie the benefit of the doubt here.

My head says that Ritchie should be smarter than that. That, as a high level athlete looking to be a good player in the NHL, that he should be listening to what the coaches and trainers tell him. My gut says that Ritchie is still just a kid, and that being smart isn't always what happens. For a player who is likely used to being bigger and stronger, he may have underestimated the importance that conditioning has at that level. Even more than that, he may have overestimated his talent level relative to his peers when he isn't bigger or stronger anymore. This is what I'm hoping for. That it's just inexperience, and maybe a bit of ego. Common in young athletes. But hoping for that doesn't mean that is the case. Some people just don't want to work as hard as others, and some people are just driven to be the best(see: Crosby). That may not show up on highlight videos, but it's a pretty big thing for a prospect.

The bolded is one of the reasons I'm not a fan of going after power forwards in the first round of the draft. In terms of pure skill, you're usually picking someone who has less pure skill than surrounding picks, and you're doing it because you're banking on their size and strength remaining an advantage at the NHL level, giving them that something extra. When it works, and they put it all together, you have quite a player. When it doesn't, you end up with a big grinder, who just isn't good enough to be more than that.

Edit: I'm trying not to read too much into the whole thing(despite the long-winded post), but I think we've seen enough players who don't take their conditioning seriously to realize that it can go beyond the conditioning. Bobby Ryan and Penner being two good examples. Even Getzlaf is an example.

 

[mytduxfan*]

So you're saying that when a player ignores his bosses for two years in a row, that concerns you? Nah, it's more likely he just never did it because he never needed to.

This might have been a valid comeback if you were genuinely "extremely unconvinced" about Ritchie because of his delay to address his conditioning. However, it's pretty obvious from your posts that your opinion of Ritchie is solely based on his 33 game stint in the NHL last year. The rest of your argument are just add-ons/excuses to make it sound like you'd actually thought it through.

"he doesn't have 'it'"

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I don't know if he "has it or not", but it is not a good sign when even his friends and family have been nagging him to take his conditioning more seriously, and he hasn't.

 

[ADHB]

Ritchie may be the one person who most benefits from Carlyle taking over. It's not just necessarily a work ethic thing.

Take Beauch for example. He was considered way out of shape when we acquired him the first time, and under Carlyle's direction he lost the weight and became fitter and turned into a solid player. When he was reacquired from Toronto years later, I specifically remember Carlyle being surprised at the condition he was in when he rejoined the team. Beauch even made a comment like Toronto wanted him to carry extra weight so he could play more minutes, or something to that extent. He once again got back into the proper playing condition and became the player we were accustomed to seeing.

 

[snarktacular]

This might have been a valid comeback if you were genuinely "extremely unconvinced" about Ritchie because of his delay to address his conditioning. However, it's pretty obvious from your posts that your opinion of Ritchie is solely based on his 33 game stint in the NHL last year. The rest of your argument are just add-ons/excuses to make it sound like you'd actually thought it through.

"he doesn't have 'it'"

That might have been a valid comeback if you were right.

Unless you think comments made as far back as 2014 were solely due to his NHL stint last year.

"It" is something that was discussed on this board years ago. I could have elaborated further, but my description is a pretty good summary. It's the "the puck follows him around" phenomenom. This is something that was evident in Getzlaf, Perry, McDonald, and Kunitz. Penner too, actually, but he failed for different reasons. And not busts like Holland, DSP, Sexton, etc.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

That might have been a valid comeback if you were right.

Unless you think comments made as far back as 2014 were solely due to his NHL stint last year.

"It" is something that was discussed on this board years ago. I could have elaborated further, but my description is a pretty good summary. It's the "the puck follows him around" phenomenom. This is something that was evident in Getzlaf, Perry, McDonald, and Kunitz. Penner too, actually, but he failed for different reasons. And not busts like Holland, DSP, Sexton, etc.

The "puck follows him around thing" is actually the best predictor I've found so far. McDonald and Bonino both had it, despite their utter lack of production at first.

 

[snarktacular]

Bonino had it, kind of. He was in the area, but was a touch slow getting there because he was sooo slow. And the times he was there, he was quickly outmuscled. But yeah, you could still see it in him.

Actually Ritchie is a little bit like that too. So maybe there's hope for him yet.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Bonino had it, kind of. He was in the area, but was a touch slow getting there because he was sooo slow. And the times he was there, he was quickly outmuscled. But yeah, you could still see it in him.

Actually Ritchie is a little bit like that too. So maybe there's hope for him yet.

He had his moments. I didn't get the same lost feeling from him that I got from Holland, for example. Ritchie was just rarely where he needed to be. He was so out of sorts that he just obviously wasn't ready.

 

[Sojourn]

He had his moments. I didn't get the same lost feeling from him that I got from Holland, for example. Ritchie was just rarely where he needed to be. He was so out of sorts that he just obviously wasn't ready.

With Bonino, I think that was a mobility issue. Even after working on his skating, he's still not even really an average NHL skater.

With Ritchie, I felt like he was a bit overwhelmed by it all, on top of just not being ready(or conditioned enough) for the NHL speed. He's more mobile than Bonino, but he just didn't seem like he was in good enough shape.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

With Bonino, I think that was a mobility issue. Even after working on his skating, he's still not even really an average NHL skater.

With Ritchie, I felt like he was a bit overwhelmed by it all, on top of just not being ready(or conditioned enough) for the NHL speed. He's more mobile than Bonino, but he just didn't seem like he was in good enough shape.

Yeah. But you could tell Bonino knew what he was doing. He just needed to adjust his anticipation to have a prayer of keeping up at NHL speeds, and he did.

Ritchie I think is kind of in the same boat, in terms of experience --> anticipation --> greater on ice impact. But so far he hasn't shown the smarts of a guy like Bones. Maybe that will come; a guy like Bones has to get smarter to survive, he had never really had the overwhelming physical skills that Ritchie had at lower levels. I think it's part of the reason why these big toolsy guys take longer to develop, is because they just didn't have to use their brains to succeed earlier on.

 

[Sojourn]

Yeah. But you could tell Bonino knew what he was doing. He just needed to adjust his anticipation to have a prayer of keeping up at NHL speeds, and he did.

Ritchie I think is kind of in the same boat, in terms of experience --> anticipation --> greater on ice impact. But so far he hasn't shown the smarts of a guy like Bones. Maybe that will come; a guy like Bones has to get smarter to survive, he had never really had the overwhelming physical skills that Ritchie had at lower levels. I think it's part of the reason why these big toolsy guys take longer to develop, is because they just didn't have to use their brains to succeed earlier on.

Well, honestly, I don't ever expect Ritchie to be Bonino-smart. That's like Lindholm level hockey smarts. At least in my opinion. Bonino always seemed to have a great head for the game. He just needed to make those adjustments, like you said. Better skating helped too, but I think you nailed it. Bonino was just a smart player, and he needed to be to survive. Without those smarts, I don't think Bonino has an NHL career. I've never really felt that kind of smart is something that can be learned. You're either a smart player, or you aren't, and the rest is just experience and learning what it takes to be effective.

I don't think Ritchie will be Bonino-smart(I think that says more about Bonino, than it does Ritchie), but that doesn't mean he's Luca Sbisa either. It's probably too early to tell where Ritchie's head for the game is, and I'm somewhat optimistic because I do think he's shown some signs, but he also clearly wasn't ready. His conditioning looked like a big factor too. Also, like you said, it wasn't an ability he has really had to rely on before now. His physical skills did the heavy lifting to get him this far. I don't think they're enough to turn him into a top line forward.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

He was told after being drafted that he needed to improve his conditioning. He didn't for the past two seasons. It's not just his conditioning, but the fact that he hasn't worked to improve his glaring weakness. Not working is the biggest red flag.

If you want to ignore the list of 5 (some compound) things that I mentioned and call it only 1 problem and only due to his NHL experience, then I can't help it.

Actually there's another thing I didn't mention. Didn't people say that it seemed like he sulked after being sent down to the AHL in December? I do feel that he was worse in the NHL in his second stint.

Also keep in mind that "extremely unconvinced" doesn't mean I'm saying he'll completely bust out of the league. He could just disappoint a la Ryan.

And bottom line is that he's still way to raw to even use as a "look, his numbers show that Noesen is right on track." In no way is Ritchie a success story that can be used to validate a guy 3 years older.

What do you base this on? Has management said his conditioning has not improved and he has not improved his game? I don't know how we can measure his conditioning progression unless we see things like his BMI and whether it's gotten better or not