Prospect Info: 2016 Annual Prospect Poll #5

[snarktacular]

Rakell didn't have impressive junior numbers either, and he improved a lot his last two seasons (which Noesen hasn't). The other big red light about Noesen is he had stagnated in juniors and hasn't improved much past that. So with two seasons of better-than-expected improvements Noesen might be something?

I remain extremely unconvinced by Ritchie as well, so that isn't really helping his case.

Jones and Steel don't have post-draft years to look at. Jones' year is decent considering it's his OHL rookie year, but his PIMs are also actually a positive.

Didn't Miller's stock yoyo a lot the past few years? But yeah he's not too bad of a counter-example.

Major injuries are actually not a good thing in my book. While it might explain why the numbers aren't good, I think it also represents lost development time that they won't get back.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Noesen's jr. numbers were better than Ritchie, Rakell, Jones, Steel and JT Miller....especially his playoff numbers. also, none of them have had to deal with back to back major injuries either.

That's not a positive relative to future expectations.

 

[mytduxfan*]

Noesen's jr. numbers were better than Ritchie, Rakell, Jones, Steel and JT Miller....especially his playoff numbers. also, none of them have had to deal with back to back major injuries either.

Noesen's playoff numbers are only higher then Ritchie's because he played in the OHL at the age of 19/20 whilst Ritchie's was 18/19 in his last year. If you take that last year out for Noesen, both have a playoff PPG of ~1.4. Still great for both, but obviously Noesen has had issues since those days. Such a shame. His AHL numbers are "ok". Hopefully he makes the team next year, but I won't be holding my breath.

Rakell didn't have impressive junior numbers either, and he improved a lot his last two seasons (which Noesen hasn't). The other big red light about Noesen is he had stagnated in juniors and hasn't improved much past that. So with two seasons of better-than-expected improvements Noesen might be something?

I remain extremely unconvinced by Ritchie as well, so that isn't really helping his case.

Jones and Steel don't have post-draft years to look at. Jones' year is decent considering it's his OHL rookie year, but his PIMs are also actually a positive.

Didn't Miller's stock yoyo a lot the past few years? But yeah he's not too bad of a counter-example.

Major injuries are actually not a good thing in my book. While it might explain why the numbers aren't good, I think it also represents lost development time that they won't get back.

You must be basing such an opinion on just those 33 NHL games he played as a 19/20 year old (weak sauce), because Ritchie has been nothing but impressive at every other level he's played at. Go back and watch a few of his AHL performances and get back to me about "how extremely unconvincing" he is.

 

[snarktacular]

You must be basing such an opinion on just those 33 NHL games he played as a 19/20 year old (weak sauce), because Ritchie has been nothing but impressive at every other level he's played at. Go back and watch a few of his AHL performances and get back to me about "how extremely unconvincing" he is.

Yes a large part of it is his poor NHL performance.

But here's a list of the things I don't like about him.

It's 2 years in, and only now is he (supposedly) getting serious about fixing his major fitness issues. His junior RS numbers are not impressive. He hasn't looked effective in training camp or prospect camp. His profile is the prospect type I find least likely to succeed and most likely to be overrated (big guy with a few but not all impressive skills but has consistency and work ethic issues and only decent production).

When I watch him, he doesn't really have "it." Where he's constantly in on the action, or the puck follows him around.

People always get so excited chasing the PF dragon and are continually disappointed.

He does have some good things, though. He isn't a soft wannabe PF (Ryan, Nash). And he doesn't seem to have hockey sense issues.

 

[mytduxfan*]

Yes a large part of it is his poor NHL performance.

But here's a list of the things I don't like about him.

It's 2 years in, and only now is he (supposedly) getting serious about fixing his major fitness issues. His junior RS numbers are not impressive. He hasn't looked effective in training camp or prospect camp. His profile is the prospect type I find least likely to succeed and most likely to be overrated (big guy with a few but not all impressive skills but has consistency and work ethic issues and only decent production).

When I watch him, he doesn't really have "it." Where he's constantly in on the action, or the puck follows him around.

People always get so excited chasing the PF dragon and are continually disappointed.

He does have some good things, though. He isn't a soft wannabe PF (Ryan, Nash). And he doesn't seem to have hockey sense issues.

Maybe there was no need to get serious about his conditioning? I mean, why do you think parents move to different countries in order to give their kid the best opportunity to make it into the NHL? It's because a player is only going to be as good as the competition he's facing. Ritchie was fairly dominant in the OHL at a very young age. There was very little need for him to improve his conditioning and, instead, he clearly focused on other parts of his game. Being out of shape is a real easy fix. Being a poor skater, shooter and passer of the puck is not. With Ritchie, you're looking at the former, not the latter.

I fail to see how Ritchie has been overrated. Like I said, he was fairly dominant in the OHL at a very young age. He wasn't McDavid or Marner by an stretch, but he also wasn't some over-sized Logan Brown type that overly relied upon his size to get the goals, which is something you seem to be suggesting. His skill-set is pretty unique actually for a man of his size. When you say that PWFs like Ritchie are the most likely to fail, I really think you need to go back and have a look at his OHL game and how he's look in the AHL. The most common PWFs to fail are those akin to Jones, who rely on their strength to get goals. Ritchie rarely would make those driving plays that Max does and often scored at range using his NHL level shot. In the AHL, he's been extremely creative and, again, uses his NHL level shot to get goals.

My biggest gripe with everything you've said is that you say you're "extremely unconvinced" about Ritchie, but then only complain about his conditioning. That's weak. You don't have to learn to be well-conditioned, you just do it. It's not like skating or passing or shooting, which takes years to perfect. It's not something he can't change, like being undersized. It's not some hockey sense issue that is unlikely to improve. By comparison, it's really easy to get fit. It just takes dedication and I don't know how you can say that Ritchie isn't dedicated based on how tenacious he was in all his NHL games, how he improved over the course of those 33 games and his recent comments regarding his training.

To me, it sounds like you watched 33 games of Ritchie in the NHL as a 19/20 year old and, because he explode onto the scene like McDavid or Eichel, you feel he's a bust just waiting to be exposed. I'm not saying that Ritchie is destined to be a superstar in the NHL. All I'm saying is maybe ease up on the kid. PWF always take longer to develop.

 

[mytduxfan*]

^ Also, according to most, Ritchie looked great at prospect camp this year. A clear standout.

http://ducks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=888620&navid=DL|ANA|home

 

[KaseMeOutside]

jones, at worst he is probably a good 4th liner who will be a nuisance for goalies and dmen to deal with, if he can translate his skill and control his emotions then you have a top 6 PF and a unique player in todays game

 

[KaseMeOutside]

^ Also, according to most, Ritchie looked great at prospect camp this year. A clear standout.

http://ducks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=888620&navid=DL|ANA|home

how could that be? hfducks has already declared him a lost cause because of 30 games he played, where he wasn't ready to play in the league

 

[gilfaizon]

jones, at worst he is probably a good 4th liner who will be a nuisance for goalies and dmen to deal with, if he can translate his skill and control his emotions then you have a top 6 PF and a unique player in todays game

If Jones could become a Kreider type for us, that would be an awesome pick. Ritchie and Jones in the pipeline is great, and hopefully we can add some more skill up front around them in the coming years.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

how could that be? hfducks has already declared him a lost cause because of 30 games he played, where he wasn't ready to play in the league

Is this really the interpretation you're going with? Hfducks has declared him a lost cause? What does that make prospects 3-25, do you think?

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Is this really the interpretation you're going with? Hfducks has declared him a lost cause? What does that make prospects 3-25, think?

I think that there are groups of people rushing to judgement on his long term future because of the time he spent with the ducks last year and forget that his time spent in the AHL was very productive for a rookie, the NHL game is just a big step up, especially a player like him who needs to lose weight and move faster. I don't know what he's going to be but there is still a lot of development he can still do

 

[snarktacular]

Maybe there was no need to get serious about his conditioning? I mean, why do you think parents move to different countries in order to give their kid the best opportunity to make it into the NHL? It's because a player is only going to be as good as the competition he's facing. Ritchie was fairly dominant in the OHL at a very young age. There was very little need for him to improve his conditioning and, instead, he clearly focused on other parts of his game. Being out of shape is a real easy fix. Being a poor skater, shooter and passer of the puck is not. With Ritchie, you're looking at the former, not the latter.

I fail to see how Ritchie has been overrated. Like I said, he was fairly dominant in the OHL at a very young age. He wasn't McDavid or Marner by an stretch, but he also wasn't some over-sized Logan Brown type that overly relied upon his size to get the goals, which is something you seem to be suggesting. His skill-set is pretty unique actually for a man of his size. When you say that PWFs like Ritchie are the most likely to fail, I really think you need to go back and have a look at his OHL game and how he's look in the AHL. The most common PWFs to fail are those akin to Jones, who rely on their strength to get goals. Ritchie rarely would make those driving plays that Max does and often scored at range using his NHL level shot. In the AHL, he's been extremely creative and, again, uses his NHL level shot to get goals.

My biggest gripe with everything you've said is that you say you're "extremely unconvinced" about Ritchie, but then only complain about his conditioning. That's weak. You don't have to learn to be well-conditioned, you just do it. It's not like skating or passing or shooting, which takes years to perfect. It's not something he can't change, like being undersized. It's not some hockey sense issue that is unlikely to improve. By comparison, it's really easy to get fit. It just takes dedication and I don't know how you can say that Ritchie isn't dedicated based on how tenacious he was in all his NHL games, how he improved over the course of those 33 games and his recent comments regarding his training.

To me, it sounds like you watched 33 games of Ritchie in the NHL as a 19/20 year old and, because he explode onto the scene like McDavid or Eichel, you feel he's a bust just waiting to be exposed. I'm not saying that Ritchie is destined to be a superstar in the NHL. All I'm saying is maybe ease up on the kid. PWF always take longer to develop.

He was told after being drafted that he needed to improve his conditioning. He didn't for the past two seasons. It's not just his conditioning, but the fact that he hasn't worked to improve his glaring weakness. Not working is the biggest red flag.

If you want to ignore the list of 5 (some compound) things that I mentioned and call it only 1 problem and only due to his NHL experience, then I can't help it.

Actually there's another thing I didn't mention. Didn't people say that it seemed like he sulked after being sent down to the AHL in December? I do feel that he was worse in the NHL in his second stint.

Also keep in mind that "extremely unconvinced" doesn't mean I'm saying he'll completely bust out of the league. He could just disappoint a la Ryan.

And bottom line is that he's still way to raw to even use as a "look, his numbers show that Noesen is right on track." In no way is Ritchie a success story that can be used to validate a guy 3 years older.

 

[liquiduck]

He was told after being drafted that he needed to improve his conditioning. He didn't for the past two seasons. It's not just his conditioning, but the fact that he hasn't worked to improve his glaring weakness. Not working is the biggest red flag.

If you want to ignore the list of 5 (some compound) things that I mentioned and call it only 1 problem and only due to his NHL experience, then I can't help it.

Actually there's another thing I didn't mention. Didn't people say that it seemed like he sulked after being sent down to the AHL in December? I do feel that he was worse in the NHL in his second stint.

Also keep in mind that "extremely unconvinced" doesn't mean I'm saying he'll completely bust out of the league. He could just disappoint a la Ryan.

And bottom line is that he's still way to raw to even use as a "look, his numbers show that Noesen is right on track." In no way is Ritchie a success story that can be used to validate a guy 3 years older.

I would love for him to "disappoint" like Ryan.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I'll always love Brian Burke's comment after drafting Ryan. "I can't believe he was still available."

 

[Exit Dose]

Four straight 30 goal seasons out of Ritchie would be pretty nice to have.

 

[OCSportsfan]

I'll always love Brian Burke's comment after drafting Ryan. "I can't believe he was still available."

You must be talking about Getzlaf. Bobby Ryan, who I think they were talking about was drafted 2nd after Crosby.

 

[Kalv]

I'll always love Brian Burke's comment after drafting Ryan. "I can't believe he was still available."

He said that? Nice

OCSportsfan, not to put words in anyone`s mouth but it might be Burke trolling/joking. In 2003 draft i believe Burkie was still with the Canucks so would be weird of him commentng on Ducks drafting Getzlaf

 

[Exit Dose]

You must be talking about Getzlaf. Bobby Ryan, who I think they were talking about was drafted 2nd after Crosby.

That's the joke.

 

[mytduxfan*]

He was told after being drafted that he needed to improve his conditioning. He didn't for the past two seasons. It's not just his conditioning, but the fact that he hasn't worked to improve his glaring weakness. Not working is the biggest red flag.

This is about the only acceptable criticism anyone has of Ritchie and it's an easy fix. I don't understand why you're so hung up on his conditioning. It's literally the easiest fix a player can make. If the difference between someone making the NHL and not making the NHL is conditioning, they make it into the NHL. Seriously, you're going on like Ritchie's skating is terrible or something. Conditioning isn't a difficult problem. It's not something that will hold his development back.

The fact he didn't start addressing it straight away is another far point, but, given his scoring totals, it's pretty clear that his poor conditioning by NHL standards wasn't a big deal at the level he's been playing at these passed 2 seasons. If it's not a problem, what's there to fix?

I've watched Ritchie in the AHL, and only since entering the NHL is it clear that his conditioning isn't up to scratch. He seemed fine when I've seen him playing for the Gulls.

If you want to ignore the list of 5 (some compound) things that I mentioned and call it only 1 problem and only due to his NHL experience, then I can't help it.

Fine.

1. Poor NHL performance - 33 games at 19/20 years old. Give the guy a break!
2. He didn't immediately start working to acquire NHL fitness levels - see above.
3. He's big and, therefore, overrated in your opinion - That's a gross over-generalisation.
4. He doesn't have "it" - WTF does that even mean? He was a clear standout to most at prospect camp. Given your attitude towards him since his time in the NHL, I wouldn't be surprised if you're looking passed the good parts of Ritchie's game and focusing on the weaknesses.
5. PWF always disappoint - Another gross over-generalisation. It really seems like you're not giving Ritchie a fair shake and, instead, are painting him with this broad brush of "well other PWFs have failed". How about judging Ritchie on Ritchie and not the failures of the PWFs of yonder year.

Actually there's another thing I didn't mention. Didn't people say that it seemed like he sulked after being sent down to the AHL in December? I do feel that he was worse in the NHL in his second stint.

Unless you have evidence of this, it's pure ass-gas.

Also keep in mind that "extremely unconvinced" doesn't mean I'm saying he'll completely bust out of the league. He could just disappoint a la Ryan.

If Ryan was a "disappointment" in your eyes, then I have no idea what Etem was - a nuclear bomb to the gonads? If Ritchie ends up being a meaner and more physical version of Ryan and puts up 30 goals for 4 consecutive seasons, I'm going to be a very happy Duck fan.

And bottom line is that he's still way to raw to even use as a "look, his numbers show that Noesen is right on track." In no way is Ritchie a success story that can be used to validate a guy 3 years older.

So he's too raw, but you've already decided he's not going to be much of anything. Gotcha!

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Who was the last prospect that everyone went into histrionics every time there was criticism? It was Rakell, wasn't it?

Seems like Ritchie stirs the same emotions. Although to be honest, snark, you had to know calling Ryan a disappointment was going to set the fanatics off.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

One thing I've noticed in Ritchie's game that hasn't been addressed here is that Ritchie scored the majority of his goals on the PP his 5v5 scoring total didn't seem to eye popping?

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

One thing I've noticed in Ritchie's game that hasn't been addressed here is that Ritchie scored the majority of his goals on the PP his 5v5 scoring total didn't seem to eye popping?

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

He said that? Nice

OCSportsfan, not to put words in anyone`s mouth but it might be Burke trolling/joking. In 2003 draft i believe Burkie was still with the Canucks so would be weird of him commentng on Ducks drafting Getzlaf

Yes, as ED pointed out, that was the joke.

 

[snarktacular]

I'll always love Brian Burke's comment after drafting Ryan. "I can't believe he was still available."

Haha. I don't remember that, but it's a pretty good joke.

One thing I've noticed in Ritchie's game that hasn't been addressed here is that Ritchie scored the majority of his goals on the PP his 5v5 scoring total didn't seem to eye popping?

Nah I don't worry too much about when players score a lot on the PP. That's an important skill in of itself.


mytduxfan: You have basically missed the point of all of my arguments. I'm not even going to argue further.

The only thing I want to clarify is the last statement, which you missed even more than usual. That statement is bringing it back to the original context. I said that Noesen's numbers weren't too impressive. Someone responded that Noesen's numbers were better than Ritchie's, which serves to imply "well Noesen was doing just fine." As Ritchie has not panned out yet, that isn't actually any evidence that Noesen was producting fine.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Which brings us back to Ryan, who has matured both physically and emotionally, and is now living up to that high draft pick status. We were surprised to hear Ryan had not heard about Brian Burke's famous line to a group of us reporters moments after the former Ducks GM selected Ryan with the No. 2 overall pick in Ottawa that year.

"We couldn't believe he was still available," Burke said with a straight face.

The first pick, of course, had been Sidney Crosby.

"I like the fact that he said that. I've never heard that before," Ryan, laughing, said when we told him the Burke quote. "That sounds like something Burkie would say. I don't want to get him mad at me, but he's got premeditated lines for sure."

..