QuadrupleDeke
33% more deke
And he's doing it.
And he has a cap hit of <$900k for this year and two more.
And he's 19.
Awful cap and asset management.
Best player on a team bounced early in a tournament. He'll fit right in.
Prospect Info: 2014 Caps WJC Thread
- Thread starter Langway
- Start date
And he's doing it.
And he has a cap hit of <$900k for this year and two more.
And he's 19.
Awful cap and asset management.
Best player on a team bounced early in a tournament. He'll fit right in.
Hivemind
We're Touched
Nobody is defending the trade in here, not sure why everyone has to beat this to death. But Forsberg doing it in the WJHC is not the same as doing it in the NHL. He's done this in the WJHC in the past as well. He has yet to demonstrate it in the NHL. That's all anyone is saying.
Forsberg couldn't keep a roster spot on an offensively starved Predators team this year. His cap hit for this season is pretty much a moot point. Right now he's a "AAAA" player. He still needs to take another step to become a quality NHLer. I have faith he will, but it's not like he's there yet, regardless of what he does in the WJHC.
QuadrupleDeke
33% more deke
Bayesian statistics, man.
Before the tournament began, we all expected him to be a solid NHLer at some point.
He has performed as we would expect a future solid NHLer would perform.
Because of that, we are now more confident that he will become what we originally assumed, so we're allowed to be more upset now.
It makes perfect sense.
Hivemind
We're Touched
Unless you expected him to fail, it's pretty much redundant. We all know he can dominate teenagers. He won't play teenagers in the NHL.
QuadrupleDeke
33% more deke
It's not redundant.
The more he shows us what we expect to see, the more sure of our original hypothesis we become.
Hivemind
We're Touched
If your hypothesis was "Forsberg is a great WJHC player," then sure. Right now, this data has little bearing on his NHL ability.
During one of the intermissions in the game vs Slovakia, a Swedish scout was in the studio and they discussed the trade of Forsberg. I don't know the name of the scout, but he was scouting for Vancouver I believe.
Anyway, he said he was shocked to here that they traded Forsberg and he stated that just about every scout was shocked that they traded him without letting him play one game in Washington. He called it poor asset management.
Anyway, he said he was shocked to here that they traded Forsberg and he stated that just about every scout was shocked that they traded him without letting him play one game in Washington. He called it poor asset management.
I think the hypothesis is "Forsberg is on a developmental path that should end with him becoming a good NHL player." (Not that I don't agree overall.)
Mothra
The Groovy Guru
QuadrupleDeke
33% more deke
Chimaera
same ol' Caps
He can just as easily be Niclas Bergfors as he can be a good NHLer.
Get beyond it, or beat the horse to death. Whatever happens, it's done.
Get beyond it, or beat the horse to death. Whatever happens, it's done.
QuadrupleDeke
33% more deke
Hivemind
We're Touched
Out of curiosity, I decied to look into what players had been named to the WJHC All-Tournament team twice. It was a pretty rare thing, probably due to NHL graduation. Jeff Carter was the most recent (NHL lockout). Before that it was Kenny Jonsson, Michal Pivonka, and a handful of Soviets. Carter, Jonsson, and Pivonka aren't bad company to be in, but it's hardly a guarantee of being a perennial all star. Though I don't think anyone would be upset (aside of Caps fans 
) about a Pivonka-like career from Forsberg, with a peak as a near-PPG player for a few seasons (granted, in much higher scoring years than today).
) about a Pivonka-like career from Forsberg, with a peak as a near-PPG player for a few seasons (granted, in much higher scoring years than today).The two commentators were discussing the Forsberg-Erat trade during Sweden's game on TSN. Button said Mcphee realizes that he dealt away a significant asset but he was loading up his team for a championship run and was going for it. I don't know what's more delusional, either the trade itself or Mcphee believing he is anywhere near being close to a potential championship caliber team.
I'm going to go with being anywhere close to a potential championship team as the more delusional thought...
Ah, I remember it like it was yesterday. GMGM calls a conference together about a "big deal" he's making. My heart is aflutter! Could it be that McPhee has finally come to terms that our core isn't going to make it over the hump in the playoffs and he's orchestrated the roster shakeup I've been anticipating for a couple years?
I wake up with all the glee of a kid on Christmas morning to check how our admirable GM has fleeced some poor sap and set us up for present and future success. I jump to the first breaking article on NHL.com with thoughts of what bounty he could have possibly received racing through my mind! The future is bright with Kuznetsov, Forsberg, and Grubauer in our ranks; what new heroes join us in our quest for Lord Stanley's Cup? The worst is behind us, this is the start of something great!
Then all at once my eager face goes pale, giddy anticipation turns to confusion. There must be some sort of mistake, maybe some intern is playing a practical joke. In short order bewilderment gives way to anger! How could this happen?! How could anyone think this is okay?! Finally, aggravation yields to hopelessness and despair.
Erat for Forsberg.
I wake up with all the glee of a kid on Christmas morning to check how our admirable GM has fleeced some poor sap and set us up for present and future success. I jump to the first breaking article on NHL.com with thoughts of what bounty he could have possibly received racing through my mind! The future is bright with Kuznetsov, Forsberg, and Grubauer in our ranks; what new heroes join us in our quest for Lord Stanley's Cup? The worst is behind us, this is the start of something great!
Then all at once my eager face goes pale, giddy anticipation turns to confusion. There must be some sort of mistake, maybe some intern is playing a practical joke. In short order bewilderment gives way to anger! How could this happen?! How could anyone think this is okay?! Finally, aggravation yields to hopelessness and despair.
Erat for Forsberg.
HunterSThompson
[}=[][][][][]
Let's be honest for a second. We all know that this trade is bad, but it is not bad because Filip is the second coming of Peter. The reason for the bad trade is the return and nothing else.
Prospects are prospects for a reason, because you do not know exactly what you are going to get. Filip Forsberg looks to the untrained eye (me, you, everyone else on the forum) like a great prospect, maybe even a sure fire NHLer. That doesn't mean he his.
The list of people that played really well in the WJC and amounted to nothing is long. Pavel Brendl, Lauri Tukonen, Stanislov Chistov, Sami Lepisto, and Johan Davidsson all made all tournament teams in the last fifteen years and didn't amount to anything. So anyone not willing to crown him the next great NHLer because of his WJC performances, one development camp, and the handful of other times anyone here has seen him play a full game is not wrong.
This is what we know:
1. George McPhee and his scouting team (presumably) decided that Forsberg was expendable, one season after drafting and then signing him. George traded him to Nashville. There are two possibilities: either GMGM and Caps scouts (the people that know this prospect the best, the only NHL people that were allowed contact with him since the draft) were correct and the people that did not know the prospect were wrong or the people that didn't know the prospect were correct. Maybe the Caps were wrong, I certainly am not smart enough to say otherwise, but maybe the Caps were right.
2. Nashville has decided to waste more or less the first half of his first year of his ELC by playing him in the AHL and letting him go to the WJC. Nashville has seen Filip play at the NHL level. They decided he wasn't good enough to play right now. This may be best for his development. This may be worse for his development, I certainly don't know. This doesn't mean that he is a bust, but it certainly doesn't mean that he is a sure fire first liner. Nashville is now the second professional scouting department to "sour" on his current play (I realize this is a leap, but they did decide he wasn't good enough for the NHL right now, which is downward from where all of his biggest fans thought last year).
Timeline of development: Plays well in under 18 tournaments...consensus top 5 player in draft...falls to 11 selected by Washington after much documented deliberation...plays well in WJC...within one year is traded well below perceived value...makes NHL debut with new team...in 17 games scores 1 goal and has 6 assists while being a minus 13...doesn't impress enough to be brought back from AHL...Trotz says this:"He has a lot of ability. He has a long way to go to play in the National Hockey League on a regular basis. I shouldn’t say play in the National Hockey League — to produce in the National Hockey League. I think he has a lot of great tools, exceptional hands and is a quality young man, but there’s still a long way for him to go."...Impresses in WJC...future
My point is to stop bullying those that aren't willing to crown Filip the 2nd coming, get all depressed, and think that everything the Caps do is the worst thing in the world. Sure there are good things about his game and his development thus far, but there are also negatives, just as many. So don't chastise people for thinking maybe his development path hasn't been as good as some people make it out to be.
QuadrupleDeke
33% more deke
That's a lot of words attacking a position I haven't taken.
I never crowned him anything. The trade was horrid, for asset and cap management reasons. We all knew it was awful when it happened, and we should be more sure that it was awful now.
So maybe take your own advice and don't chastise people for thinking that maybe his development path is exactly as you'd expect a 19-year-old 11th-overall pick to have, and that both his production and salary will continue to show that the trade was a panic move to save GMGM's job, and unfortunately did.
HunterSThompson
[}=[][][][][]
I wasn't necessarily chastising you personally (convenient short quote). I don't disagree that the trade was bad from an asset management position, but I am sick of reading all of the people belly-aching over every goal he scores or assists on in the WJC.
If the trade hadn't gone down, people would be souring on him here because he didn't live up to the first or second line reputation we had built up for him in his first year. They would be jumping on GMGM for bringing him over before he was ready, wasting a year of his cheap ELC on the AHL and the WJC.
Should they have traded him for someone different? Yes, probably. We have hindsight on the Erat part of the trade. We don't have it yet on the Forsberg part of the trade. We know trading for Erat was a bad decision, we do not know yet if trading Forsberg away was.
Oh, and I am not trying to chastise anyone on taking the stance that his development path is right where a prospect of his caliber should be. That very well may be the case. The good parts of his development surely have been very good. I just think there are plenty of negatives that may have been overlooked.
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fedfed
@FedFedRMNB
artilector
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I agree with you on almost all points, especially the part about being sick of hearing about Forsberg.
But let's be honest we didn't need hindsight to regret this one. As soon as it happenned 99% of us were pissed at Mcphee.
