2014-15 Goalie Madness: Someone HELP US
- Thread starter BigG44
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glovesave_35
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The thing I don't get about the comparison of Lehtonen and Anderson is why the Lehtonen "backers" are claiming that Kari is easily the better goalie career-wise and not to be fooled by Anderson's current play.
Lehtonen is a career .914% in 483 games.
Anderson is a career .916% in 400 games.
The GAA is virtually the same as well. In 80 fewer games Anderson has 29 shutouts to Kari's 30. His best seasons, albeit in a backup or shared starter role, are clearly better than any season Kari has ever put together. Then there are the playoff numbers for Anderson which are flat out solid.
Lehtonen is a career .914% in 483 games.
Anderson is a career .916% in 400 games.
The GAA is virtually the same as well. In 80 fewer games Anderson has 29 shutouts to Kari's 30. His best seasons, albeit in a backup or shared starter role, are clearly better than any season Kari has ever put together. Then there are the playoff numbers for Anderson which are flat out solid.
Mr Misty
The Irons Are Back!
- Feb 20, 2012
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I'm not particularly interested in career numbers when we have a 4 season sample of each with their current team to compare. From the Anderson to Dallas thread:
Kari's numbers have been better 3 of the 4 years and he plays more. I don't know how you compare the quality of the teams in front of him, or the systems they play, but during the TSN feed of the Senators game they would not shut up about how bad Dallas' defense is and how there is no discipline in their system. If it comes down to personal preference, I'd rather have a goalie who sticks around .918 than one who's SV% varies wildly, and considering that the Stars need a goalie who can play 60 or more games every year, Kari is a better fit.
glovesave_35
Name
I wasn't necessarily arguing from an "either or" standpoint, more just comparing the two. Obviously, Kari has had higher load seasons but the idea of adding a guy who can get and stay really hot is enticing, especially if you are adding that to your goaltending stable that includes Lehtonen.
Lehtonen is not an elite goalie. He's been called that by plenty on here and in the Stars organization/mouthpiece, but he isn't. He's a good starting goalie; this year he's not lived up to that level though.
FWIW if someone put a gun to my head and asked which guy I'd rather have behind my team in the playoffs I'd be hard pressed to choose Kari over Anderson. I know, sample sizes and such, but Kari did nothing to impress me last spring. In fact, he played pretty much during that series as he has most of this season, which is to say that had we gotten better goaltending we might have won that series.
Lehtonen is not an elite goalie. He's been called that by plenty on here and in the Stars organization/mouthpiece, but he isn't. He's a good starting goalie; this year he's not lived up to that level though.
FWIW if someone put a gun to my head and asked which guy I'd rather have behind my team in the playoffs I'd be hard pressed to choose Kari over Anderson. I know, sample sizes and such, but Kari did nothing to impress me last spring. In fact, he played pretty much during that series as he has most of this season, which is to say that had we gotten better goaltending we might have won that series.
As I have said before, Kari is the Stars Tony Romo. It will be hard to find someone better, but until he wins, we will have questions about whether he can.
As to Anderson, statistically they seem pretty even over the long haul. I don't think we can count Andersons uptick this year as the start of a long term trend. It could be the same as kari's uptick last year, before he falls back to his aveage.
In short, not sure why Nil would want to give up a valuable asset for basically a lateral move in goal. Would we give up Honka, for instance (they say they want a Ryan level player to trade Anderson) for 0.02% better save percentage?
I haven't viewed any detail on Anderson's stats, but my general belief is that if he were here, we would start picking apart his bad games, soft goals, etc. At similar stat lines overall, we have to presume he also has similar stat lines for one game outliers. I do know Kari's stats in detail, as a stars fan and participant here, and while he gives up some softies he does face more quality shots than most other goalies, mostly explaining his decline this year.
Also, no one seems to think that playing behind 3-4 rookie D men would have any affect on Anderson's stats as much as Kari's?
As to Anderson, statistically they seem pretty even over the long haul. I don't think we can count Andersons uptick this year as the start of a long term trend. It could be the same as kari's uptick last year, before he falls back to his aveage.
In short, not sure why Nil would want to give up a valuable asset for basically a lateral move in goal. Would we give up Honka, for instance (they say they want a Ryan level player to trade Anderson) for 0.02% better save percentage?
I haven't viewed any detail on Anderson's stats, but my general belief is that if he were here, we would start picking apart his bad games, soft goals, etc. At similar stat lines overall, we have to presume he also has similar stat lines for one game outliers. I do know Kari's stats in detail, as a stars fan and participant here, and while he gives up some softies he does face more quality shots than most other goalies, mostly explaining his decline this year.
Also, no one seems to think that playing behind 3-4 rookie D men would have any affect on Anderson's stats as much as Kari's?
Troy McClure
Suter will never be scratched
That's not a good comparison. Romo is consistently one of the very best in the league in passer rating, and that has been over a number of years where he was playing behind a dreadful offensive line. Kari at his best puts up numbers that make him look like he's about 8th best in the league.
I'd rather have the guy who is a better goalie today since today is when games are being played.
Still, the general argument you heard on the streets was "I am not sure we can win it all with Romo." Much like we can't win with Kari. Many average fans always ready to run Romo out of town, recent playoff success excepted. Many fans want to run Kari out of town, etc.
If you want to argue Kari was, until this year, about the 8th best goalie in the league over the last five years, I am fine with that and it sounds about right. I am not sure where Romo would end up on the list, but it certainly was never much higher than that, except this year. The "winners" like Brady, Manning(s), Rodgers, Brees took the top spots on most folks lists.
With the proper team, the Stars could have playoff success with the 8th best goalie, given the differences in the top ten are marginal, although in a razor close game or series (think Brodeur vs Eddie in 2000) it can make a difference. In general, the better team ends up winning the Cup if they get that far, and some have won with average goalies.
In the context of this discussion, you can think what you want of Kari (like I say anywhere in top half of goalies up until this year wouldn't get much argument from me) and in general, I wonder if it would be really good asset management to upgrade from 10-15 he is, to a 3-6 level, or even 1-3 level, while losing a few good players/assets to do it?
And, of course, there is always the "is this the post 30 slide starting or just a slump year (induced by 3 rookie D?)
It was interesting to note the rumors that Nil was going to ship Kari to WPG for a very good player, and pick up Ryan Miller during the off season. It does indicate (if true) that he was not above changing out goalies, using UFA to match salaries. Miller has been a bit up and down, but statistically better with a good STL team. Would have been a wise gamble, but no guarantees. And WPG has to be glad they didn't with Pavlec playing so well.
I guess its just like many average fans wouldn't trade some of our quality players, even for fair value in return. Maybe I am just that way with Kari, whereas some would ship him out for a bag of pucks due to a poor season, which I think is a bit of an over reaction.
If you listed the things the team needs to fix, it would still be D, then e backup goalie (which might help Kari, too by reducing games), then maybe starting goalie, then forwards, which seems to be a pretty solid and balanced group. Barring some fantastic opportunity, it doesn't make a lot of sense to change the order of improvements.
If you want to argue Kari was, until this year, about the 8th best goalie in the league over the last five years, I am fine with that and it sounds about right. I am not sure where Romo would end up on the list, but it certainly was never much higher than that, except this year. The "winners" like Brady, Manning(s), Rodgers, Brees took the top spots on most folks lists.
With the proper team, the Stars could have playoff success with the 8th best goalie, given the differences in the top ten are marginal, although in a razor close game or series (think Brodeur vs Eddie in 2000) it can make a difference. In general, the better team ends up winning the Cup if they get that far, and some have won with average goalies.
In the context of this discussion, you can think what you want of Kari (like I say anywhere in top half of goalies up until this year wouldn't get much argument from me) and in general, I wonder if it would be really good asset management to upgrade from 10-15 he is, to a 3-6 level, or even 1-3 level, while losing a few good players/assets to do it?
And, of course, there is always the "is this the post 30 slide starting or just a slump year (induced by 3 rookie D?)
It was interesting to note the rumors that Nil was going to ship Kari to WPG for a very good player, and pick up Ryan Miller during the off season. It does indicate (if true) that he was not above changing out goalies, using UFA to match salaries. Miller has been a bit up and down, but statistically better with a good STL team. Would have been a wise gamble, but no guarantees. And WPG has to be glad they didn't with Pavlec playing so well.
I guess its just like many average fans wouldn't trade some of our quality players, even for fair value in return. Maybe I am just that way with Kari, whereas some would ship him out for a bag of pucks due to a poor season, which I think is a bit of an over reaction.
If you listed the things the team needs to fix, it would still be D, then e backup goalie (which might help Kari, too by reducing games), then maybe starting goalie, then forwards, which seems to be a pretty solid and balanced group. Barring some fantastic opportunity, it doesn't make a lot of sense to change the order of improvements.
glovesave_35
Name
The Romo can't win crap was always crap. Comparing the musings of the Cowboys fanbase and the Stars fanbase doesn't make a ton of sense either.
In reality Romo's been a top 5 quarterback. Some folks are saying Romo might end up being a hall of famer. If he does manage to win a SB and can play another few years at a high level he definitely gets there. Kari won't ever be in that conversation. Facebook is so brutal, right after the GB game some people on my timeline were posting things like "can we finally dump Romo now?" Most people on those kinds of posts were defending him at least.
mattihp
Registered User
glovesave_35
Name
We don't cross DFW sports often here but this is something you just have to deal with as an adoptive fan of only our city's hockey team. I don't even live in the city or country right now but I still listen to Dallas sports radio (only the Ticket). I'm sure you'll live.
I would not say the majority opinion of Romo in this town is that he is a top 5 QB.The comparison is many consider them both bums because they haven't won it all, in a sort of all or nothing sports mentality.
I'm not really a Cowboy fan, so the only reason for the comparison is that many folks compare the importance of goalies and QB. When I lived in Chicago, they always said the two most popular guys in town were the backup goalie and the backup QB.
It seems like an apt comparison, even if not perfect, in that for any mental midget fan who calls for replacing either, the real question is, for the armchair GM, who do you realistically get that is better? You really have to luck into it.
Dallas lucked into both Romo and Kari (undrafted QB, damaged goods for a second round pick and failed prospect) and Kari has been a serviceable starting goalie for the last four years on what everyone admits is a very flawed team.
Its an important position, but I doubt Brodeur in his prime would have gotten any version of the Stars a much better record. But, who knows, as they finished close all four years to that 8th seed and maybe a slightly better goalie would have gotten them in the PO where they make a magical run. Its the stuff sports dreams are made of, but reality usually isn't that way.
I'm not really a Cowboy fan, so the only reason for the comparison is that many folks compare the importance of goalies and QB. When I lived in Chicago, they always said the two most popular guys in town were the backup goalie and the backup QB.
It seems like an apt comparison, even if not perfect, in that for any mental midget fan who calls for replacing either, the real question is, for the armchair GM, who do you realistically get that is better? You really have to luck into it.
Dallas lucked into both Romo and Kari (undrafted QB, damaged goods for a second round pick and failed prospect) and Kari has been a serviceable starting goalie for the last four years on what everyone admits is a very flawed team.
Its an important position, but I doubt Brodeur in his prime would have gotten any version of the Stars a much better record. But, who knows, as they finished close all four years to that 8th seed and maybe a slightly better goalie would have gotten them in the PO where they make a magical run. Its the stuff sports dreams are made of, but reality usually isn't that way.
Rune Forumwalker
Registered User
- May 11, 2006
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Very, very doubtful. He was amazing in those first few years, and the only reason they were even in the hunt for the 8th seed.
He was also overworked in terms of games played in each season and wore down as the season went on. So it's not surprising last years playoffs went they way it did, as him (and I suppose the team really) never finished strong in the non-playoff years.
Turco also had his best playoffs when Smith was around to push him (granted he was only around for half the season in 07-08). Seems like most of the goalies on teams that go on deep runs lately aren't workhorses for their teams as well. If this team could get a backup that could play at least 25 games, while keeping the team competitive in them that would go a long way towards a shot at a good playoff run (and probably being a higher seen than just a wild card).
glovesave_35
Name
Is there an easy way to find Kari's numbers since he missed time after he got trucked by Erik Haula? I'm wondering if we can pinpoint exactly when Lehtonen's game took a noticeable downturn.
Stars99Lobo37
Registered User
Don't think it was then. Went 8-4-0 in the final 12 games he played following that, recording 2 shutouts..holding the opponent to 2 or less in 7 of the 12 games. 2 of the losses came on back to back nights. Only allowed more than 3 once...his return game (in Pittsburgh) with 5.
Playoffs are a different story however.
Elysian
Emo Stars Fan
Stars99Lobo37
Registered User
And he never recovered
Yep.
Since game 1 last year (46 games), Kari has allowed 3 or more goals in 28 games (and is now riding 4 consecutive games of doing so).
Hull Fan
The Future is Now
Here are the raw numbers. It obviously doesn't account for who they've played or who's remaining on the schedule but for a quick and dirty comparison:
Right now Dallas is on pace to score 254 goals. That’s top five in the league and 19 better than last year.
Unfortunately the Stars are also on pace to concede 268 goals. Which not only is a -14 goal differential but it’s also 40 more goals against than last season when they gave up only 228.
They’re not going to win anything with those GAA numbers. So the very good offense is hiding some of it but the reality is that Dallas’ defense isn’t good enough and the goaltending is far, far worse.
Kari last year 2.41 GAA, .919 SV %
Kari this year 2.99 GAA .903 SV%
Half a goal a game worse.
Right now Dallas is on pace to score 254 goals. That’s top five in the league and 19 better than last year.
Unfortunately the Stars are also on pace to concede 268 goals. Which not only is a -14 goal differential but it’s also 40 more goals against than last season when they gave up only 228.
They’re not going to win anything with those GAA numbers. So the very good offense is hiding some of it but the reality is that Dallas’ defense isn’t good enough and the goaltending is far, far worse.
Kari last year 2.41 GAA, .919 SV %
Kari this year 2.99 GAA .903 SV%
Half a goal a game worse.
Stars99Lobo37
Registered User
Which game was that? I remember it happening just don't remember who it was against.
Mr Misty
The Irons Are Back!
- Feb 20, 2012
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Troy McClure
Suter will never be scratched
"Kari has given up fewer than three goals in just four of his last 15 starts. He has posted a save percentage above .890 in just six of his last 15 starts."
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