Shady Machine
Registered User
- Aug 6, 2010
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Prospect Info: 2013 Penguins Development Camp
- Thread starter Phil68
- Start date
themethod7
Registered User
Oh for sure. Really, it just highlights how useless it is (for the most part) to try and evaluate drafts for those first few years immediately afterwards - it takes time (often years) to see how things shake out.
Delve into the drafts from 2005-2007 and you begin to see how pointless a lot of the bickering is (as always, hindsight is 20/20, but that's the point):
[FIELDSET="2005 Draft"]
D Brian Lee and Luc Bourdon were top-10 picks for the Senators and Canucks, respectively; the Pens took Kris Letang in the 3rd round (62nd overall), and before he signed here long-term, many thought that, should the Pens lose him, they should acquire Keith Yandle, taken in the middle of round 4 with the 105th pick.
Some of the other D taken before Letang/Yandle:
14. Sasha Pokulok
26. Matt Pelech
28. Matt Niskanen (lol)
...and about a dozen more you've never heard of.
Florida selected G Tyler Plante at the beginning of the 2nd round (32), but he has yet to play a single NHL game; Jonathan Quick was taken 1 round and 40 picks later and is a Conn Smythe/Stanley Cup winner.
Patric Hornqvist was the last pick taken (230th overall) and had 3 straight 20+ goal seasons before the recent lockout shortened season.
[/FIELDSET]
[FIELDSET="2006 Draft"]
Tampa Bay made Riku Helenius the 2nd goalie taken (behind Jonathan Bernier) at pick 15, ahead of Semyon Varlamov (23), Michal Neuvirth (34), Jhonas Enroth (46), and James Reimer (99).
Outside the top-5 picks, which featured Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, and Nicklas Backstrom, 5 more centers were chosen before the Flyers took Claude Giroux with the 22nd pick: Derick Brassard (6), Peter Mueller (8), James Sheppard (9), Bryan Little (12), and Trevor Lewis (17).
I intended for this section to be longer, but this draft really was garbage, holy ****. Only other players of note taken in the 3rd round or later (so far)...
69. Steve Mason
71. Brad Marchand
72. Cal Clutterbuck
161. Viktor Stalberg
[/FIELDSET]
[FIELDSET="2007 Draft"]
Another weak draft...
Boston picked C Zach Hamill 8th overall, 1 spot ahead of Logan Couture. Couture had more goals (21) in this past lockout shortened season than Hamill has NHL games (20) since 2007.
P.K. Subban was taken in the 2nd round, 43rd pick overall. Some of the first-round defensemen taken ahead of him? Keaton Ellerby (10), Alex Plante (15), Ian Cole (18), Nick Petrecki (28), and Nick Ross (30).
As mentioned, Jamie Benn was taken in the 5th round, 129th overall. [/FIELDSET]
Every draft is littered with first round busts and late round gems, but arguing about which camp our 18, 19, 20 year old prospects falls into is about as useless as a screen door on a submarine.
Jacob
as seen on TV
- Feb 27, 2002
- 49,504
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There are a lot of things you can't really scout. Letang's development curve post-draft was enormous. Esposito's meanwhile was just the opposite. It's mostly guess-work when it comes to predicting how players are going to develop in those 2-3 crucial years post-draft. I think that's why the Pens value character more than most.
Probably because some rare talents are actually ready for NHL hockey at 18, and it would be unfair to take those years away from them. Didn't the NBA have to go through litigation or something to raise the draft age? I'd guess that the PA would be against this.
Jacob
as seen on TV
- Feb 27, 2002
- 49,504
- 25,107
I don't think that's fair to the guys that are good enough for the NHL at 18. And because that unpredictability is part of what makes drafts & prospects fun.
Crafton
Liver-Eating Johnson
i remember a lot of people wanted Petrecki over here. went unclaimed on waivers last year. one of those 'plenty of tools, no toolbox' kind of guys. drafting is tough work any way you slice it, but focusing on drafting and developing impact d-men is particularly though. like Jacob said, it wasn't really possible to anticipate Letang's meteoric ascendancy.
i wonder, has this organization been better than average at 'cutting the cord' and trading away prospect that they didn't think would make it when compared to other teams? do other teams let prospects who haven't developed according to plan 'fester on the vine' a tad longer? i don't know, but it might be an inquiry that warrants further investigation.
themethod7
Registered User
Which is exactly my point - calling Z player our "best prospect" or Y player is X years away/has the highest ceiling... we're talking about 18, 19, 20 yr olds who are still growing/learning/maturing. I understand wanting to know exactly what we have in the pipeline, but some of the bickering on here lately just seems silly to me, and shining a light on some of the past drafts helps illustrate that until they've had time to grow and prove themselves, it's anybody's guess.
As to your second question - would be interesting to look back at Shero's track record on handling prospects, especially the ones who under perform; if I have time today I might do some digging...
#66
Registered User
Yup a kids mental make up comes into play too. I remember when MAF was staring to get lit up as a rookie and the Pens said that it wouldn't effect this kid because he doesn't let anything get him down.
Or Whitney... IMO his skill was through the roof but he always seemed like such a nervous kid to me. I remember seeing him play for WB in a game against Hartford and thinking that he was afraid to make mistakes. Sure those mistakes have to be weeded out of him but not at the cost of what made him a high end pick. I'm not sure of the Pens walked that fine line of bringing along a prospect back then.
Updated my Pouliot profile from last year...
Derek Pouliot
Skill
Pouliot has a great shot. He gets a lot of drive from his legs and understands that its not always about how hard a shot is taken but just getting it on net. He also is smart enough to just put a wrist shot on net for rebounds.
Its his passing thats his bread and butter. He's a special, pure passer. Like a Kaberle or Zubov. You can see him really zip a long pass but the thing is that it’s completely manageable by the receiver. He also has great vision and creativity. He can thread the needle and go tape to tape with a pass or put a slow pass way out in front of a player so he can skate right into it.
His skating and look on the ice reminds me of Zubov. He’s a great skater but doesn’t lead the rush as much as he lets the puck do the work. He makes a great headman pass and supports the play from behind. Once plays are established in the offensive zone he has no problem going in deep and to the high slot.
Physical game
Maybe the biggest knock on Pouliot is his physical game. I think the effort is there but he's just not strong enough yet. I do fully think it will come and he'll end up being more well rounded than people think. It’s in him as I've seen him play POed and that’s when he's at his best.
He does make up for some physical flaws with a headsy game.
Outlook
He’s a highly skilled PPQB. I'm sure he'll have some bumps and bruises along the way but he's just too good to fall flat. Like I said up top, I don't think he's that bad defensively. He makes some correctable mistakes and some of his shortcomings stem from strength issues. He’ll naturally get stronger.
One thing I would like to see this year is Pouliot taking over games more. He seems like he has a stars ability but not that chip on his shoulder. That’s a natural thing at his age but it is something that needs to grow.
#66
Registered User
Yeah I think Letang has a physical side that Pouliot doesn't. Even if Pouliot gets stronger I don't think he has that natural meanness to his game that Letang does.
On the flip side I don't think Letang has the gift for passing and reading plays offensively like Pouliot.
Beaudangles19
Registered User
lastcupever75
Phive cups PA.
- May 14, 2009
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Beaudangles19
Registered User
I just saw that. Had no Idea. What happens with him? Did he just never sign a ELC?
SuperUnknown
Registered User
BlindWillyMcHurt
ti kallisti
- May 31, 2004
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Muzzin was always an intriguing player. Like wej said... he had to have back surgery in '05 for two herniated discs but was thankfully eased slowly back into the Greyhounds lineup the next few years (including an overage year after Pittsburgh gave up his rights).
A miss by Pittsburgh but not a huge deal, looking at the strength of their prospect pool, now. But not as big of a miss as Moulson, IMO. And even he bounced around a bit (oddly enough... he played for the Kings before settling in with the Islanders).
A miss by Pittsburgh but not a huge deal, looking at the strength of their prospect pool, now. But not as big of a miss as Moulson, IMO. And even he bounced around a bit (oddly enough... he played for the Kings before settling in with the Islanders).
Dipsy Doodle
Rent A Barn
- May 28, 2006
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Darth Vitale
Dark Matter
Yah the Moulson thing really hurts. That was a bad miss for sure. No excuses on that one.
Ogrezilla
Nerf Herder
#66
Registered User
That's the thing. I don't think he's wimpy by any means. When he plays with that edge he's at his best. He competes but Letang can get downright nasty. Maybe that compete level will show more as he gets stronger but you could see Letang had a nasty side to his game even before he became a fitness freak.
Goligoski used to step up and pop people when he played for Minny. It was more of a timing gap play more than a mean one. That didn't carry over to the pro's though.
Darth Vitale
Dark Matter
Too much partying maybe? I have no idea what the issue might've been but the Islanders lucked out on that racket.
Ogrezilla
Nerf Herder
was he any good when we let him go? With LA? I have absolutely no idea.
Ogrezilla
Nerf Herder
I think because he's a pretty one dimensional player and needed to go to a team with no depth to become the player he is.
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