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Pre-Game Talk: 2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk IV

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arsmaster*

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thefeebster said:
I'm glad they did a review last season, wish it were earlier.

The article makes it sound like Crawford is fully in charge now, the role of head scout minus the title still held by Delorme. The previous article about this restructuring made it seem like Crawford was just helping out and inputting his ideas.

Happy they are emphasizing these three areas and bulking up in Ontario, which i've long felt has the best development leagues.
Click to expand...

The BCHL is a better league than the OJHL and the WHL produces as many if not more players than the OHL.

I agree in a sense, that the OHL produces players at the higher end, generally.

From Ontario West to BC you probably are looking at 3/4 of all NHL players. It only makes sense to beef up these areas.
 
Agent007

Agent007

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thefeebster said:
I'm glad they did a review last season, wish it were earlier.

The article makes it sound like Crawford is fully in charge now, the role of head scout minus the title still held by Delorme. The previous article about this restructuring made it seem like Crawford was just helping out and inputting his ideas.

Happy they are emphasizing these three areas and bulking up in Ontario, which i've long felt has the best development leagues.
Click to expand...

But they still apparently believe their best scout is Delorme :facepalm:
 

windflare

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May 31, 2006
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arsmaster said:
From Ontario West to BC you probably are looking at 3/4 of all NHL players. It only makes sense to beef up these areas.
Click to expand...

I'd say half, unless you count NCAA-tracked guys from Tier 2 junior leagues. But yes. About 1/2 from Ontario westwards, 1/4 from NCAA/Q, and 1/4 Europe/Misc.

But as said, good to see systematic changes - and that's the word that Gilman uses, as Gillis and him both understand systems thinking. It's hard to change present systems, and systems take time to change. Very, very rarely is it the fault of one person, though people usually like to place blame on one or two guys, as it's much easier to scapegoat than it is to think systematically.
 

arsmaster*

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windflare said:
I'd say half, unless you count NCAA-tracked guys from Tier 2 junior leagues. But yes. About 1/2 from Ontario westwards, 1/4 from NCAA/Q, and 1/4 Europe/Misc.

But as said, good to see systematic changes - and that's the word that Gilman uses, as Gillis and him both understand systems thinking. It's hard to change present systems, and systems take time to change. Very, very rarely is it the fault of one person, though people usually like to place blame on one or two guys, as it's much easier to scapegoat than it is to think systematically.
Click to expand...

Actually changed my mind on what I wanted to say.
 
D0ctorCool

D0ctorCool

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Has anyone been following the 'Prospect Comparables' articles Coppernblue.com has been puttting out? I found it a very interesting statistical analysis of the top 30 prospects.

http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/27/4470552/morgan-klimchuk-draft-comparables

The writer did a fantastic job breaking down the first 10-15 draft picks, and then I felt got a little lazy with his stats towards the end, but overall its an eye opening read.

You can scroll to the bottom of the link to see the full list.
 
thefeebster

thefeebster

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arsmaster said:
The BCHL is a better league than the OJHL and the WHL produces as many if not more players than the OHL.

I agree in a sense, that the OHL produces players at the higher end, generally.

From Ontario West to BC you probably are looking at 3/4 of all NHL players. It only makes sense to beef up these areas.
Click to expand...
I think the OHL wins by quality and numbers. Well the first part is in my opinion. I know i've read something recent that proves the 2nd part, can't find it.

There does not seem to be anything that sorts by drafted league, but you can sort by birth provinces. And its close. http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_CanadianPlayers.php

Based on # of Canadian NHL players in the 2012-2013 season:
1 Ontario 41.9%
2 Quebec 12.4%
3 Alberta 13.6%
4 British Columbia 10.7%
5 Saskatchewan 9.7%
6 Manitoba 6.8%

We know the west pulls from the bottom 4 provinces, giving the West a combined total of 40.8%.

But obviously since it only samples players from Canada, it is skewed because of the american recruits that can play in both the WHL and OHL are not included.
 

arsmaster*

Guest
thefeebster said:
I think the OHL wins by quality and numbers. Well the first part is in my opinion. I know i've read something recent that proves the 2nd part, can't find it.

There does not seem to be anything that sorts by drafted league, but you can sort by birth provinces. And its close. http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_CanadianPlayers.php

Based on # of Canadian NHL players in the 2012-2013 season:
1 Ontario 41.9%
2 Quebec 12.4%
3 Alberta 13.6%
4 British Columbia 10.7%
5 Saskatchewan 9.7%
6 Manitoba 6.8%

We know the west pulls from the bottom 4 provinces, giving the West a combined total of 40.8%.

But obviously since it only samples players from Canada, it is skewed because of the american recruits that can play in both the WHL and OHL are not included.
Click to expand...

I guess it depends how far back we look.

The WHL and OHL are the biggest contributors of North American talent into the NHL. I'd say they are close anyways.

Quality, I agree, probably goes to Ontario...but Ontario has more people than the West combined, so it should produce more. But for every Eric Staal, there is usually a Ryan Getzlaf.
 
Canucks LB

Canucks LB

My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you
Oct 12, 2008
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Sean monahan looks so much like crosby when he was young, even with the way he talks.

Kinda freaky.



Skip to 1:00
 
thefeebster

thefeebster

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I was going to say that its so quiet in here on what is Christmas Eve! The Schneider talk and the possibility of a couple of big moves probably sucked the life out of the draft.

I'm watching videos on the leafs' site as well. I am about half way, but i can see some reasons why Adam Erne did not interview well, just based off my first impression.

EDIT: I do see the Crosby resemblance.
 
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Nucker101

Nucker101

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Apr 2, 2013
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Taco Fingerhat said:
Has anyone been following the 'Prospect Comparables' articles Coppernblue.com has been puttting out? I found it a very interesting statistical analysis of the top 30 prospects.

http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/27/4470552/morgan-klimchuk-draft-comparables

The writer did a fantastic job breaking down the first 10-15 draft picks, and then I felt got a little lazy with his stats towards the end, but overall its an eye opening read.

You can scroll to the bottom of the link to see the full list.
Click to expand...


Thanks for the link, I wish there were more prospect evaluation stuff out there that used things like historic comparables.
 

Hardyvan123

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Nucker101 said:
Thanks for the link, I wish there were more prospect evaluation stuff out there that used things like historic comparables.
Click to expand...

It's interesting stuff to be sure but personally I'm not a fan of comparables as the game has changed dramatically over time (19191 comp) and it doesn't take into account team strength, roles and coaching philosophy.

Comparables can create false hopes and expectations.
 
Nucker101

Nucker101

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Hardyvan123 said:
It's interesting stuff to be sure but personally I'm not a fan of comparables as the game has changed dramatically over time (19191 comp) and it doesn't take into account team strength, roles and coaching philosophy.

Comparables can create false hopes and expectations.
Click to expand...


That's true, but it does provide some perspective and a different/fresh point of view instead of the usual typical hockey clichés we see on every site/blog and draft preview show when pretty much everyone is looking at things as a best case scenario and with way too much of a group consensus. Even guys like Button who go against the grain don't provide numbers or stats to back themselves up so it gets kind of annoying to me.
 
biturbo19

biturbo19

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Jul 13, 2010
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Nucker101 said:
That's true, but it does provide some perspective and a different/fresh point of view instead of the usual typical hockey clichés we see on every site/blog and draft preview show when pretty much everyone is looking at things as a best case scenario and with way too much of a group consensus. Even guys like Button who go against the grain don't provide numbers or stats to back themselves up so it gets kind of annoying to me.
Click to expand...

Maybe that's because the 'numbers and stats' are already out there, plain as day to look at. And maybe it's because at the end of the day, when you're talking about draft prospects in particular, those numbers and stats are so far from telling the whole story, that you have to fall back on 'cliches' like good old fashioned, watching games and 'projecting players'.
 
Vankiller Whale

Vankiller Whale

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May 12, 2012
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With the 7th overall, who would you take?

Mackinnon
Jones
Drouin
Barkov
Nichushkin
Lindholm
Monahan

Whichever of those 7 are left I'd be happy with.
 

Trelane

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Feb 12, 2013
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Salusa Secundus
So what's likely to be on the board come 7th? With Mac, Drouin, Jones, Barkov and Nichushkin being clear cut top 5, Calgary/Weisbrod being erratic, and Nurse maybe getting picked early, we could be talking Monahan v Lindholm.:naughty:

A lot of hot air out there, but I enjoy the entertainment just the same.

T minus 15 hours. Unless your team is going deep this is the best day of the year for hockey junkies partout.

MG would take NIChushkin last.
 
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Hansen

Hansen

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Mirco Mueller looks like a solid prospect. Not exactly at the top of my list around or spot but he had one of the best, if not the best, ratings on that machine that made Hampus Lindholm jump around the combine last year.
 
Nucker101

Nucker101

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biturbo19 said:
Maybe that's because the 'numbers and stats' are already out there, plain as day to look at. And maybe it's because at the end of the day, when you're talking about draft prospects in particular, those numbers and stats are so far from telling the whole story, that you have to fall back on 'cliches' like good old fashioned, watching games and 'projecting players'.
Click to expand...

Not really. I have yet to see any other size that uses adjusted PPG and goals per game as a stat and compares prospects to past prospects that had similar numbers, draft pedigrees in the same leagues. Sure there are variables that can't be measured since junior leagues don't have sites like BehindTheNet.ca to keep track of possession numbers, and you have to factor in quality of linemates, zone usage, ice time, roles, but again I think a site/analysis like the one linked is a nice resource and provides a different perspective on things.
 
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