2 forwards to expose in expansion draft (using 7/3 protection)?

McJadeddog

Registered User
Sep 25, 2003
20,242
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Regina, Saskatchewan
I've been thinking about the upcoming expansion draft, and have been trying to figure out who we expose for forwards.

No matter the type of protected list we choose (4/4 or 7/3), the dmen to protect under each plan is fairly obvious. Under the 4/4 protection, we protect: Larsson, Klefbom, Sekera, and Davidson. Under the 7/3 protection, we protect: Larsson, Klefbom, and Sekera. For those who would rather protect Davidson than Sekera (if those people exist), we have to protect Sekera due to his NMC.

Just as a reminder, we don't need to protect: McDavid, Nurse, Caggiula, Benning, and Puljujarvi. We also need to expose 1 dman under contract in 2017-18 with 40+ GP in 2016-17 or 70+ GP in 2015-17, and 2 forwards under contract in 2017-18 with 40+ GP in 2016-17 or 70+ GP in 2015-17. Here are the full rules: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

The list isn't as obvious for forwards in the 7/3. For the 4/4 it's obvious: Lucic, Eberle, RNH, and Draisaitl. The 7/3 would be relatively simple, if it wasn't for the requirements to expose 2 forwards that meet the criteria listed above. They would very likely be: Lucic, Eberle, RNH, Draisaitl, Maroon, Letestu, and Pouliot/Kassian (take your pick between these two, assuming Kassian is re-signed before the draft).

But since we need to expose a forward with 40+ GP this year, or 70+ GP in the last 2 years, who is also under contract for 2017-18, we are limited to (outside of the people we would obviously like to protect): Maroon, Letestu, Pouliot, and Kassian. This even assumes that Kassian is signed before the draft. If I'm Kassian, I might just not sign before then, therefore protecting myself against being picked up. The only ones we could for SURE expose right now are Maroon, Letestu, and Pouliot. I think most people would obviously expose Pouliot, but then that means we are losing one of Maroon or Letestu, unless we can sign Kassian first.

Personally, I would just go with the 4/4 myself, but lets say that we have to go with a 7/3, just for arguments sake. Who are the most likely 2 forwards to be exposed? I think it will be Pouliot and Letestu. This is mostly due to Lander likely replacing 80% of what Letestu brings, and being younger/cheaper. I think the team will want to keep Kassian as well, for the physical element he brings. Thoughts?
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
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Canada
Draisaitl, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic, Maroon, Letestu, Khaira
Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera
Talbot

I don't think this is what we're walking into the draft with though. This is my 7/3/1 today.

Kassian is exposed because his past issues are well known and I can't see a team from Las Vegas taking that risk. Pouliot because that contract is going one way or another.
 

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
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Alberta
I'd expose Eberle and lose that 6M contract, rather keep Maroon over Ebs

That's stupid and a terrible decision.

You expose Pouliot and Kassian I guess (though I don't see Kassian being on anyone's radar)

Edit: Davidson, at this moment, has shown enough to be a good enough player to let Maroon be exposed in the expansion draft.
 

McJadeddog

Registered User
Sep 25, 2003
20,242
5,178
Regina, Saskatchewan
Draisaitl, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic, Maroon, Letestu, Khaira
Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera
Talbot

I don't think this is what we're walking into the draft with though. This is my 7/3/1 today.

Kassian is exposed because his past issues are well known and I can't see a team from Las Vegas taking that risk. Pouliot because that contract is going one way or another.

khaira doesn't need protection from my understanding
 

Joey Moss

Registered User
Aug 29, 2008
36,163
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Khaira needs protection.

Protecting Khaira would be ridiculous.. He wouldn't get picked up anyways.

Basically our decision comes down to losing Davidson or Maroon because we're not exposing Eberle. I think we need Maroon more than Davidson.

Protect: Draisaitl, RNH, Eberle, Maroon, Lucic, Kassian, Letestu.

Expose Pouliot and Davidson. Would be wonderful if Vegas took Pouliot over Davidson. If only we didn't keep Draisaitl around so long in his rookie season we wouldn't have this debate.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
38,654
21,855
Canada
Protecting Khaira would be ridiculous.. He wouldn't get picked up anyways.

Basically our decision comes down to losing Davidson or Maroon because we're not exposing Eberle. I think we need Maroon more than Davidson.

Protect: Draisaitl, RNH, Eberle, Maroon, Lucic, Kassian, Letestu.

Expose Pouliot and Davidson. Would be wonderful if Vegas took Pouliot over Davidson. If only we didn't keep Draisaitl around so long in his rookie season we wouldn't have this debate.

Kassian is a fourth liner. There are many forwards out there who will be picked ahead of him. I'd argue the same thing for Maroon. There will be a lot of wingers available. The reason I see Khaira as an attractive option is his ability to play both center nnd wing and the fact he's under team control for some time.

All of that being said, we don't know what happens between now and then. 7/3/1 may not even be an option for us based on what happens at the deadline.
 

McJadeddog

Registered User
Sep 25, 2003
20,242
5,178
Regina, Saskatchewan
Protecting Khaira would be ridiculous.. He wouldn't get picked up anyways.

Basically our decision comes down to losing Davidson or Maroon because we're not exposing Eberle. I think we need Maroon more than Davidson.

Protect: Draisaitl, RNH, Eberle, Maroon, Lucic, Kassian, Letestu.

Expose Pouliot and Davidson. Would be wonderful if Vegas took Pouliot over Davidson. If only we didn't keep Draisaitl around so long in his rookie season we wouldn't have this debate.

this i agree with 100%, this is really the decision to be made between the 7/3 and 4/4 i think
 

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
75,646
35,552
Alberta
Protecting Khaira would be ridiculous.. He wouldn't get picked up anyways.

Basically our decision comes down to losing Davidson or Maroon because we're not exposing Eberle. I think we need Maroon more than Davidson.

Protect: Draisaitl, RNH, Eberle, Maroon, Lucic, Kassian, Letestu.

Expose Pouliot and Davidson. Would be wonderful if Vegas took Pouliot over Davidson. If only we didn't keep Draisaitl around so long in his rookie season we wouldn't have this debate.

Stop, don't by into Craig Button's trolling. Davidson is not high people's list of "must claim" players, there are other defensemen who will be available who are better or higher profile. It would take a pretty significant rest of the season from Davidson to be on Vegas' radar.
 

Draiskull

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
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That's stupid and a terrible decision.

You expose Pouliot and Kassian I guess (though I don't see Kassian being on anyone's radar)

Edit: Davidson, at this moment, has shown enough to be a good enough player to let Maroon be exposed in the expansion draft.

yeah right.. If there is one forward worth protecting after Draisaitl it is Maroon.
Davidson is far from a core player.
Only way we go 4F4D is if we acquire a legit top 4 Dman via trade. Even then Maroon would probably be one of the 4 protected Fs. (Ebs or RNH going the other way in that trade for top 4D)
 

Zaddy

Registered User
Feb 8, 2013
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5,850
Pretty sure I'd expose Davidson. We'd have a much harder time replacing Maroon, especially internally than Davidson. I also think Maroon would be higher on Vegas' radar, even if he is only signed another year. Davidson really isn't that proven and is a little bit overrated by Oilers fans. And if he does get claimed it's a loss but not a huge one. We already have Klefbom, Sekera and Nurse on the left side long-term with a ton of guys in the system too. Our wing depth on the other hand is atrocious and replacing a guy like Maroon who you can just plug and play on any line and who seems to be a great locker room guy too is much harder. Not to mention he is one of few guys that seem to mesh with McDavid.
 

MessierII

Registered User
Aug 10, 2011
27,818
16,477
I'd protect

Drai Lucic Nuge Eberle Maroon Letestu Kassian

Klefbom sekera Larsson

Talbot

It will suck losing Davidson but won't be the end of the world.

I think Vegas' draft strategy will be to load up on top 4 D and then trade some D to bolster their forwards. They won't have many good forwards but will likely end up with around 9 or 10 top 4 defensemen.
 

BleedingOil

Registered User
Dec 4, 2006
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Edmonton
I'd protect

Drai Lucic Nuge Eberle Maroon Letestu Kassian

Klefbom sekera Larsson

Talbot

It will suck losing Davidson but won't be the end of the world.

I think Vegas' draft strategy will be to load up on top 4 D and then trade some D to bolster their forwards. They won't have many good forwards but will likely end up with around 9 or 10 top 4 defensemen.

If you cant extend maroon you dont protect him
 

Joey Moss

Registered User
Aug 29, 2008
36,163
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If you cant extend maroon you dont protect him

Disagree. Would rather have Maroon another season and lose Davidson, even if it's just one season. This is assuming Vegas picks either Maroon or Davidson. I think they would take Maroon in a heartbeat from us, but maybe we'd end up keeping Davidson also if there are 6 better defenseman available.
 

BleedingOil

Registered User
Dec 4, 2006
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Edmonton
Disagree. Would rather have Maroon another season and lose Davidson, even if it's just one season. This is assuming Vegas picks either Maroon or Davidson. I think they would take Maroon in a heartbeat from us, but maybe we'd end up keeping Davidson also if they took a prospect from us.

Id only protect maroon if he signs at least a 2 y extention through 2020. Cant protect a guy who you may only keep for 1 year
 

CornKicker

Holland is wrong..except all of the good things
Feb 18, 2005
11,902
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I'd protect

Drai Lucic Nuge Eberle Maroon Letestu Kassian

Klefbom sekera Larsson

Talbot

It will suck losing Davidson but won't be the end of the world.

I think Vegas' draft strategy will be to load up on top 4 D and then trade some D to bolster their forwards. They won't have many good forwards but will likely end up with around 9 or 10 top 4 defensemen.

right now i agree with you but i think once the time comes teams will leverage those exposible dmen into assets before they lose them for nothing. i dont think they end up with more than 2 legit top 4 dmen when all is said and done.
 

Weitz

Registered User
Sep 23, 2014
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I'd say try and trade Eberle prior to the draft and hope you can get something worth protecting.
 

MessierII

Registered User
Aug 10, 2011
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right now i agree with you but i think once the time comes teams will leverage those exposible dmen into assets before they lose them for nothing. i dont think they end up with more than 2 legit top 4 dmen when all is said and done.
Really? I don't think it's possible. It's too hard for every team to go the 4-4 route. I think Vegas will make great trade partners for us this summer with their plethora of top 4 D. It's at forward where they will be embarssingly bad.
 

McXLNC97

Registered User
Mar 20, 2007
5,320
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B.C.
Why not give Gryba a one year extension right now? He would then fit the criteria of a dman needing to be exposed since he's already over 70gp over the last 2 seasons and would be under contract for 17/18
 

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