I appreciate that our draft ship may never come in. That is a very real concern. I don't, however, know how to mitigate that risk. We can talk about rebuilding without truly top picks, but that to me still requires a ton of draft luck (i.e. later picks out developing their draft position). You still need to rebuild through the draft, you are just doing so in a different way. I also think that if we could improve our top six at a reasonable expense without unnecessary risks, Yzerman would have done so already (or would do so in the future without hesitation). I don't believe for a second he has turned his back on a single opportunity to substantially improve the top six of this roster at a reasonable cost.
Over time I think we will see better UFAs sign in Detroit and perhaps we can develop some more tradable assets, but I still think the rebuild runs through the draft in some shape or form.
I think you mitigate the risk by going after better talent outside of the draft. In the short run you make the team better and provide better support for the players you're drafting/developing, in the long run you're putting pieces in place for a better team or having future trade chips. I think there is too much concern about cost. We've seen GMs play this dance all of the time with contracts they want to get rid of. We saw Yzerman do it in Tampa, Holland did it, every GM does it.
would the Wings have to overpay compared to St. Louis or Tampa? Yeah, but so what? To some degree, operating in a cap environment means getting the most from your expenses that you can, but you also don't get bonus points for not spending money. And the draft lotto has really devalued being straight up awful.
And for all of the worry about drafting at the very top of the draft, how many cup teams have been built on that? Pittsburgh, yeah. Chicago? They pulled a lot of pieces outside of the top3. Same with LA. Boston. Washington. Tampa. Bringing in guys who can be used as big trade chips down the road, and not just guys we hope to pass of for a mid-rounder, could really help here. Or they could make other guy expendable to be dealt.
I don't think Yzerman seriously pursued improving the top half of the roster this past off-season, though. I don't think it was an option. Everything they did only makes sense if you're trying to contain costs. Which, hey, it's not my money. But I think it cost the Wings a unique opportunity to aggressively over turn their roster a bit.
Yes, but elite talent is still hard to come by. Take any random draft year, and show me how many are at Yzerman level of play?
Here's 2015:
2015 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com
I'd venture a guess that there is less separating the elite talent from the almost elite talent from whatever you want to call the tier below that.
We can't expect Yzerman to do it all perfect. He has to fail and learn.
I like what Yzerman and Blashill have achieved or more correctly how they position this team to succeed, they have not achieved anything yet.
Anyhow, why don't you think we can get top 3 pick?
Yzerman himself was 4th overall. With the number of team that time, is 10th overall now like 5th overall then.
They could, but the draft lotto makes getting that top3 pick less likely for being as bad as the Wings are. Look, if the Wings were guaranteed to pick where they finished, then awful it up. Over the past three drafts I think they've dropped a total of 8 or 9 spots, though. We're not being rewarded for being as awful as we've been. And when you look at drafts, historically, the expected production outside of the top two picks begins to drop pretty heavily as soon as 3rd over all.
Gutting the franchise to be the worst team in the league to have marginally better odds at the draft lotto...Maybe it pans out at some point, I like to think it has to, but it's not something I'd put my money on.