GDT: 160209 Sharks @ Hawks CSNCA 5:30

[DarrylshutzSydor]

My thoughts:

1. Excellent pressure on the Hawks in all zones, with some backing off in the defensive zone a few times; particularly in the last half the 2nd period.
2. Jones was the main difference in this game. Sometimes he looks like Crawford (and better last night), or sometimes he looks like Niemi. I don't believe its arguable that he still needs to develop some, but it's very likely we'll look back on the trade as positive, just not this season. We should see a slow improvement of more games looking like Crawford, not Niemi, but every goal tender is going have bad games.
3. The other difference in the game was special teams. The sole goal in the game (discounting the EN goal) was on the PP. Sharks came away winning both sides of special teams... PP and PK.
4. Another difference in the game was the absence of Panarin which curtails Kane's line, and Kane himself. There was much discussion of Sharp's departure and what affect that would have. Not really any due to Panarin. What an undrafted signing.
5. Hawks top two defensive pairings are better than all three Sharks pairings, arguable. They play more defense, and setup scoring from the points. They don't have a sniper like Burns, but then, they don't have the huge negative +/- either. However, not last night as all Sharks pairings excelled. The only serious turnover I saw was due to Thornton, not Burns or others dmen.
6. Zubrus ~= Desjardins. I would have never thought that would be the case before the game, but Desjardins, wanting to show his old team like all players, did not look that great to me last night.
7. Watching coach's challenge on goal tender interference this season, opposing players cannot be in the crease between the goalie and the opposite post if the score comes through that opposite post. Unless the goalie's name is Stalock. The difference here was that Jones did not try to avoid contact in this case. Probably Stalock and Jones had reviewed the video after that game and were better prepared to help the coach in the challenge.
8. Sharks end the season matchup 1-2. With a healthy Panarin, I cannot see the Sharks getting past the Hawks in a 7-game series. Hawk's top two lines and defense pairings, and goalie are formidable.

This month is important for the Sharks due to the Ducks's having a more favorable remaining Feb. schedule which includes 3 cellar dwellers. Next month, it's the Canucks with the first of four games starting in the end of Feb. Ducks likely see this month their best chance to surpass the Sharks.

Those are the two tests that will probably decide whether the Sharks make the playoffs or not. If the Sharks come through, then April will be a fight for home ice advantage.

2. Niemi and Crawford play similar games/styles, they just let the puck hit them. Neither are spectacular.

 

[stator]

2. Niemi and Crawford play similar games/styles, they just let the puck hit them. Neither are spectacular.

Niemi would have withered at either end. Both goalies faced significant attacks and the only difference was the PP goal that Crawford let in.

Crawford > Niemi by a long shot.

Niemi only had one good year with the Sharks, and looked better because he really had no threat to loose his starting role from the bench. That was one of the downfalls of the Sharks... believing he was not just a starting caliber goalie, but a playoff one.

 

[stator]

In order for the Sharks to miss the playoffs, either Arizona or Vancouver will have to make up six points in the standings. Seeing as how neither team is better than the Sharks, that's going to be an awfully difficult task for either team. They go head-to-head frequently but both of them are in a spot where they have to pretty much sweep those matchups to have a shot at knocking the Sharks out of the playoff picture.

That isn't happening.

Six points is about 10% of the remaining points, maybe the low teens. You are calling for the fat lady to sing too early. Way too early. I'm surprised because you generally have better analysis then to call the season over for the Yotes and Canucks.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Six points is about 10% of the remaining points, maybe the low teens. You are calling for the fat lady to sing too early. Way too early. I'm surprised because you generally have better analysis then to call the season over for the Yotes and Canucks.

How much of the remaining points it is isn't really relevant. Six points is not easy to overcome at this stage. Hell, it's difficult to overcome a six point deficit at Thanksgiving through the rest of the season. This is especially true with the extra point that is a regular thing in this day and age. And it's not calling for the fat lady to sing. Look at the history. That kind of deficit is large given the environment and it is not overcome very often.

It also still doesn't acknowledge the reality that the Sharks are better than either of them which presents its own hurdle for those teams. It'll be much tougher for them to overcome a six point deficit with 30 games to go if they're at best splitting with the Sharks on the head-to-head and then only have 25 or 26 games to go to make up six points. I don't think you quite understand the gravity that is a six point deficit at this stage of the season.

 

[Mattb124]

The thing about the Coyotes and Canucks is we play those teams 9 times between now and the end of the season. That results in a lot more potential for changes in the standings than if we did not have so many head to head games. I still doubt either makes the playoffs.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The thing about the Coyotes and Canucks is we play those teams 9 times between now and the end of the season. That results in a lot more potential for changes in the standings than if we did not have so many head to head games. I still doubt either makes the playoffs.

Sure can but since it should be a given that the Sharks are a better team than both of them, it will make it difficult for Vancouver and Arizona pull that comeback off. I think both Arizona and Vancouver would be lucky to get a split off the Sharks and in Vancouver's case three of five. But that doesn't really help much in catching up and it's even tougher when the extra point is factored and who knows where that may happen. That's what makes seemingly small deficits larger and more difficult. We've seen it pretty much every year.

 

[hohosaregood]

Doesn't help that Vancouver just lost Sutter and Edler.

 

[Mattb124]

Sure can but since it should be a given that the Sharks are a better team than both of them, it will make it difficult for Vancouver and Arizona pull that comeback off. I think both Arizona and Vancouver would be lucky to get a split off the Sharks and in Vancouver's case three of five. But that doesn't really help much in catching up and it's even tougher when the extra point is factored and who knows where that may happen. That's what makes seemingly small deficits larger and more difficult. We've seen it pretty much every year.

I'd agree if worse teams historically had difficulty beating the Sharks. We've been better against bottom dwellers this year, but have still only won 3 of 9 games in regulation.

 

[Led Zappa]

We got this

 

[Limekiller]

A Hawks Blog (The Committed Indian) had some interesting notes on the game:

-So the big talking point will be Brandon Mashinter’s disallowed goal. I doubt you could ever say it was kicked in. Rasmussen banked it off his shin. As for the goalie interference… it’s hard to say. The puck was there to be played, Couture was pushing Rasmussen but before the goal was scored. Did Rasmussen have time to get out of the way after playing the puck? It would be hard to say yes. Did he pin Jones’s left arm down? You could say that. Like many people have said, this is turning into the NHL’s version of “finishing the process” and sometime soon they’re going to have to sit down and flush this out with common sense. Sadly, that is something that doesn’t run very deep in the NHL.

-Still, that one moment shouldn’t have decided the game. Deboer has certainly brought the New Jersey tendencies to the Sharks’ game with their defensive play. I’m not sure I’ve seen a team work harder in their own zone than the Sharks did tonight. There just seemed to be six or seven Sharks against the five Hawks.

-Tomas Hertl was very impressive tonight, constantly active on the top line. Most Sharks fans would still like to see him at center, and I can see why, but given that other than Pavelski they are rife with third line wingers someone has got to play on the wing on the top line.

-Matt Nieto also had himself quite a game

I thought his note about Hertl was especially on point. Your guys' thoughts?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'd agree if worse teams historically had difficulty beating the Sharks. We've been better against bottom dwellers this year, but have still only won 3 of 9 games in regulation.

But these teams aren't really bottom dwellers. I'd classify Vancouver and Arizona as fringe playoff teams that happen to be on the outside looking in. They've done fairly well against those types of teams.

 

[Mattb124]

But these teams aren't really bottom dwellers. I'd classify Vancouver and Arizona as fringe playoff teams that happen to be on the outside looking in. They've done fairly well against those types of teams.

Those teams are 24th and 23rd in the league, respectively. The Sharks have won 3 of 7 in regulation against teams in slots 21-25, so 6 wins in regulation in 15 games against the 10 worst teams in the league. That's just one way to slice the pie, but the Sharks don't statistically look demonstrably "better" when playing teams in the bottom 1/3 of the league when they are going into OT or losing almost 2/3 of the time. As has been the case in recent years, the Sharks seem to play down to their competition and make games closer than they should be.

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

A Hawks Blog (The Committed Indian) had some interesting notes on the game:



I thought his note about Hertl was especially on point. Your guys' thoughts?

Kind of funny to see him talking about the defensive tendencies because this was one of the few (2-3) nights that nearly the entire team was tight-knit and stingy in our zone. I'll chalk that up to this team wanting to beat the Hawks.

Hertl was good. Nieto is the unsung hero of this team, and I think the way he gets treated on this board is incredibly unfair. He may never hold down anything more than a depth spot, but with the way some fans on here and our Philadelphian insider talk about him, you would think he purposefully puts the puck in our net 5 times a game. The same goes for Goodrow.

 

[boredatwork]

Agree on Nieto. In my opinion, DeBoer sees him as the best defensive forward on the team.

 

[hohosaregood]

Kind of funny to see him talking about the defensive tendencies because this was one of the few (2-3) nights that nearly the entire team was tight-knit and stingy in our zone. I'll chalk that up to this team wanting to beat the Hawks.

Hertl was good. Nieto is the unsung hero of this team, and I think the way he gets treated on this board is incredibly unfair. He may never hold down anything more than a depth spot, but with the way some fans on here and our Philadelphian insider talk about him, you would think he purposefully puts the puck in our net 5 times a game. The same goes for Goodrow.

I do really like Nieto even without his offensive skills. Sometimes it seems like he drives the line he's on with the way he carries the puck into the zone. Only thing I can really fault him with is that he's really not good at keeping the puck on his stick. Otherwise he might be our best PKer and defensive forward.

I guess with that said, does that make him similar to Andrew Cogliano?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Those teams are 24th and 23rd in the league, respectively. The Sharks have won 3 of 7 in regulation against teams in slots 21-25, so 6 wins in regulation in 15 games against the 10 worst teams in the league. That's just one way to slice the pie, but the Sharks don't statistically look demonstrably "better" when playing teams in the bottom 1/3 of the league when they are going into OT or losing almost 2/3 of the time. As has been the case in recent years, the Sharks seem to play down to their competition and make games closer than they should be.

That's one way to look at it. I'm looking at it like they're four points out of a playoff spot. You look at how they do against teams that are in that last playoff spot or tied for it and within four points, they're 5-7 against Western teams and 10-9 overall. Not great but the big thing about all this is that a lot of the games that they lose against whichever bracket you want to pick from, those losses mostly occurred with Couture out. That 21-25 bracket with Couture in the lineup is 3-1-1 and the bottom ten record is 6-2-2.

It all depends on how you frame it. Since Couture came back fully, they're 11-4-2. So they're playing significantly better against pretty much teams of all levels since that has happened.

 

[hohosaregood]

Is it wrong that I think I like PDB more than Tmac?

 

[hockeyball]

Is it wrong that I think I like PDB more than Tmac?

Wait till we pile up a few losses again Or go out in the first round again... haha

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Is it wrong that I think I like PDB more than Tmac?

No I think he's doing a good job at making the Sharks much more aggressive and harder to play against. TMac seemed to get much more passive the last few years.

 

[Alwalys]

I do really like Nieto even without his offensive skills. Sometimes it seems like he drives the line he's on with the way he carries the puck into the zone. Only thing I can really fault him with is that he's really not good at keeping the puck on his stick. Otherwise he might be our best PKer and defensive forward.

I guess with that said, does that make him similar to Andrew Cogliano?

Seems like Nieto thrives in games against smaller, less physical, more skill-oriented teams like the Hawks. Makes sense, being a smaller guy himself.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Nieto is fine in any game. Just isn't a good enough finisher to be a true threat.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Is it wrong that I think I like PDB more than Tmac?

Nah. I think in a vacuum Todd is a better coach, but I have also been very pleasantly surprised by DeBoer, given reports from, *ahem*, certain posters. I don't think I've seen any player regress offensively from where they were last year, which is something I honestly would have laughed at someone for predicting. Burns, Vlasic, and Braun will probably all have career years offensively. Pavelski and Thornton are still doing their thing, Hertl has improved a lot (and has been given a lot more trust by DeBoer than I thought he would get, given DeBoer's supposed hatred of young players), Marleau has at least been better than last year, and Couture you have to give a break due to his injury. I haven't seen Donskoi punished for being creative. Tierney and the fourth line in general have earned his trust now. DeBoer's system has lead us to I think the 4th best shots against per game rate in the league without really suppressing our best offensive players. The high amount of blocked shots are a result of his system rather than being in our own zone a lot, as evidenced by comparing our Fenwick and Corsi. I've been extremely pleased compared to what I was led to expect.

 

[tahoesharksfan]

Is it wrong that I think I like PDB more than Tmac?

SYS-tem > PRO-cess


Nieto has had far more opportunities to contribute since he got moved up with Patty and Ward. If we could get the later two back on top of their games that would be a hell of a line right now...

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Goes to show what a coach can do with more talent and his own staff.

 

[Barrie22]

Goes to show what a coach can do with more talent and his own staff.

Didn't tmac get to pick his own staff atleast early on?