GDT: 160206 Sharks @ Predators CSNCA 5pm

[Episkey]

DW did have a top pick. He chose poorly.

Too early to say for sure. But it's tough not to get a little upset when you see Mikko Rantanen tearing up the AHL and Kyle Connor having a historic freshman year in the NCAA. I like Meier but we need someone that can drive the bus when Thornton is gone.

 

[hohosaregood]

Too early to say for sure. But it's tough not to get a little upset when you see Mikko Rantanen tearing up the AHL and Kyle Connor having a historic freshman year in the NCAA. I like Meier but we need someone that can drive the bus when Thornton is gone.

connor was my golden goose of the last draft :/

...and Larkin was my goose the year before

 

[magic school bus]

One thing people are not remembering is how much defensive commitment was required to support Niemi. Part of what Jones gives is more offense by being less dependent on conservative defence.

We give up like the 5th least shots per game. Jones isn't freeing up anything more offensively.

 

[Alwalys]

We give up like the 5th least shots per game. Jones isn't freeing up anything more offensively.

Well watching the games, to me that's because he kills plays better than Niemi, doesn't give up as many huge rebounds and can actually make basic plays with the puck.

Also, the team gets the puck out better, transitions better, and holds the puck in the offensive zone more because the best forwards aren't babysitting Niemi anymore.

 

[Bleedred]

Well watching the games, to me that's because he kills plays better than Niemi, doesn't give up as many huge rebounds and can actually make basic plays with the puck.

Also, the team gets the puck out better, transitions better, and holds the puck in the offensive zone more because the best forwards aren't babysitting Niemi anymore.

I wouldn't discount Paul Martin's presence either. Not saying he's the reason for shaving a few shots against per game off, but he helps in those situations.

 

[DystopianTierney]

On the game, Rinne was solid. The Nashville team played their textbook strong defensive hockey. Once the Predators got going, the Sharks had a hard time getting to the middle. Nashville kept them to the outside, away from rebounds, and away from dangerous area. All the possession and shots in the world won't help you in that situation.

They really used their size to crush any hope of a comeback. After the first period Rinne had an easy game. The Preds used their physicality to suffocate and discourage our guys from wanting to pay the price. People can ***** about prevent hockey all they want... It's something the Sharks are severely lacking.

 

[Alwalys]

I wouldn't discount Paul Martin's presence either. Not saying he's the reason for shaving a few shots against per game off, but he helps in those situations.

true enough

 

[OrrNumber4]

I thought Niemi was VERY good in the 2013 playoffs. Even in that Kings series, goaltending was not the reason for that loss.

The 2011 playoffs he was pretty brutal. Sub 90% save percentage and a 3+ GAA over 18 games. If it was those numbers in a one series playoff year or smaller sample size, that wouldn't be as bad. But that would have been the worst goalie number of a Stanley Cup Finalist in I can't remember how long. But he probably would have had to have a 90% just to win that WCF Vancouver series and even get to the SCF.

Nabokov wasn't good in the 2010 run either. Though Nabby was a beast in 2004 in the WCF run.

Niemi was whatever in the 2012 series and the horrific numbers in 2014 playoffs were only 6 games, but I didn't think he was very good in game 5 and was behind Stalock getting the start in game 6. A lot of people blame him for game 7. I can't fault him on two of the goals and the Doughty goal might not have really been a bad one, but I still can't understand why he was laying down on it pretty much. If he's not flopping around, it might hit him in the chest or shoulder.

And as bad as the goaltending has been, you aren't going to win many games scoring fewer than 2 goals/game. I believe that Nabokov never lost a series where the Sharks scored more than 2 goals/game.

In a very small sample size, Jones has shown, that, like 95+% of goalies, he doesn't do well without sustained action. I think that has been the death knell many times for the Sharks.

 

[Limekiller]

Too early to say for sure. But it's tough not to get a little upset when you see Mikko Rantanen tearing up the AHL and Kyle Connor having a historic freshman year in the NCAA. I like Meier but we need someone that can drive the bus when Thornton is gone.

Me and other people were up in arms over DW picking Meier with Rantanen still on the board, and we caught flak for complaining. Our worst season in ages, top 10 pick, and DW screws it up. Predictably. For every good decision he makes (signing Donskoi), he makes multiple idiotic ones. (signing Hannan/Huskins/etc, ignoring the glaring hole on D for years, this pick, effectively trading Paccioretty in return for Craig Rivet, picking Gabyriel Boudreau over, well, anyone, trading a 2nd for Tyler Kennedy, feuding with Thornton last season, should I go on?)

Rantanen is destroying the AHL as an 18 year old, where he's 3rd in points per game for the entire league. Meier is 19, and isn't even in top-5 points per game in Juniors. Why do I have a disturbing feeling that we're re-living Portland taking Sam Bowie over Jordan, with us in the Portland role?

 

[OrrNumber4]

Me and other people were up in arms over DW picking Meier with Rantanen still on the board, and we caught flak for complaining. Our worst season in ages, top 10 pick, and DW screws it up. Predictably. For every good decision he makes (signing Donskoi), he makes multiple idiotic ones. (signing Hannan/Huskins/etc, ignoring the glaring hole on D for years, this pick, effectively trading Paccioretty in return for Craig Rivet, picking Gabyriel Boudreau over, well, anyone, trading a 2nd for Tyler Kennedy, feuding with Thornton last season, should I go on?)

Rantanen is destroying the AHL as an 18 year old, where he's 3rd in points per game for the entire league. Meier is 19, and isn't even in top-5 points per game in Juniors. Why do I have a disturbing feeling that we're re-living Portland taking Sam Bowie over Jordan, with us in the Portland role?

That is because ~90% of the people making the criticism had seen very little of Meier or Rantanen. Instead, they were holding strong opinions because of what others were saying. Others mostly being people on the internet, hiding behind a keyboard.

I would say that 99.9% of NHL scouts, over large sample sizes, would outperform 99.99% of the fools on the internet. That .01% are the Max Giese's of the world...and look at the quality and depth of his scouting predictions compared to even venerated HFboards posters.

Lastly, Doug Wilson did not trade Pacioretty for Rivet. He traded a "late first" for Rivet, which Montreal used to draft and develop Pacioretty.

 

[Shark Finn]

I don't know is it just me but I think it's a bit early to judge the picks of 2015 Draft. Development curves are different.

I'm not defending DW but I'm not gonna **** on him either on the pick - at least not yet

 

[RainbowDash]

Me and other people were up in arms over DW picking Meier with Rantanen still on the board, and we caught flak for complaining. Our worst season in ages, top 10 pick, and DW screws it up. Predictably. For every good decision he makes (signing Donskoi), he makes multiple idiotic ones. (signing Hannan/Huskins/etc, ignoring the glaring hole on D for years, this pick, effectively trading Paccioretty in return for Craig Rivet, picking Gabyriel Boudreau over, well, anyone, trading a 2nd for Tyler Kennedy, feuding with Thornton last season, should I go on?)

Rantanen is destroying the AHL as an 18 year old, where he's 3rd in points per game for the entire league. Meier is 19, and isn't even in top-5 points per game in Juniors. Why do I have a disturbing feeling that we're re-living Portland taking Sam Bowie over Jordan, with us in the Portland role?

I actually looked very much into Rantanen and was very high on him, but Meier is a better pick. Let me go ahead and give you some insight of what we knew at the time. He absolutely was not capable (or shown) of distributing the puck the way Goldobin can. So basically, we would have drafted someone whom presumably be inferior and a black hole in puck possession. In terms of his ability to shoot, he was merely average there. As in, if you seen lots of video, you'd notice that he has plenty of (Grade AAA) looks, but did not get the puck in the net. And I'm talking about shooting high and still hitting the blocker. The kid just didn't seem to be able to elevate the puck enough. Like, he would not even be able to score against Niemi. Think about that for a minute.

What Rantanen did have going for him was his size and sees the ice well, and the analysis concluded that a team that values size would have him high on the board if they feel they could teach him the NA game and felt he would work hard on polishing his skill. If very well could have been us drafting him, sure. But Meier on the board in the right eyes is too good to pass up

Make no mistake that Meier is a great pick. He came to Canada. Has size, very physical, very good shooter, good speed, very motivated, and stuck in NHL camp until the last cut. He is basically everything Setoguchi could not put together and then some more. Think Jamie Benn. That's likely what we drafted. No need to step on the ledge over this.

If there is a player we should upset about, its the fact the Provorov didn't drop to us when he was so damn close. We need someone in the pipeline who is offensively gifted like that.

 

[Limekiller]

That is because ~90% of the people making the criticism had seen very little of Meier or Rantanen. Instead, they were holding strong opinions because of what others were saying. Others mostly being people on the internet, hiding behind a keyboard.

I would say that 99.9% of NHL scouts, over large sample sizes, would outperform 99.99% of the fools on the internet. That .01% are the Max Giese's of the world...and look at the quality and depth of his scouting predictions compared to even venerated HFboards posters.

Lastly, Doug Wilson did not trade Pacioretty for Rivet. He traded a "late first" for Rivet, which Montreal used to draft and develop Pacioretty.

As I recall, most of the draft ranking and scouts lists for the draft before it happened had Rantanen ranked above Meier. I can't speak to ALL of them, but most I remember seeing did so. I won't deny I was basing my opinion from others on the internet, but I was basing it on reports from actual scouting services and the big name media pros that discussed it at the time, and not on HF posters. And as it turns out, it seems like they were right, does it not? I really hope Meier works out, I really do. But the Avs would laugh in our face at this point if we offered a 1 for 1 trade between the two.

And yes, I know it wasn't a direct trade of Pacioretty for Rivet. But that was the ultimate fallout of it, and I know which player *I* would rather have. DW didn't even get anything in the end from the trade when he sent Rivet to Buffalo for 2 2nd rounders. One pick turned into the illustrious William Wrenn (who last I checked was a #7D in the AHL), and the other one turned into Wallin (Best defenseman EVAR) plus Cody Ferriero. So, even if you don't assume we'd have taken Pacioretty, in the end DW still turned a 1st round pick into Cody Ferriero (who we don't even have any more, because he busted out). Somehow, I think we could have done SLIGHTLY better with a 1st round pick than the dream of Cody Ferriero, even if we didn't take Pacioretty, don't you?

 

[OrrNumber4]

As I recall, most of the draft ranking and scouts lists for the draft before it happened had Rantanen ranked above Meier. I can't speak to ALL of them, but most I remember seeing did so. I won't deny I was basing my opinion from others on the internet, but I was basing it on reports from actual scouting services and the big name media pros that discussed it at the time, and not on HF posters. And as it turns out, it seems like they were right, does it not? I really hope Meier works out, I really do. But the Avs would laugh in our face at this point if we offered a 1 for 1 trade between the two.

It hasn't even been a year since Meier was drafted. You need to allow time for the grades to come in. Would you judge a 10K by the results at the 2K mark?

And yes, I know it wasn't a direct trade of Pacioretty for Rivet. But that was the ultimate fallout of it, and I know which player *I* would rather have.

When it comes to the draft, unless it is a very low pick, I dislike the idea of using "who was picked" as the "value" of that pick. You need to consider the pick's position, the team making the trade, developmental systems, etc.

So, even if you don't assume we'd have taken Pacioretty, in the end DW still turned a 1st round pick into Cody Ferriero (who we don't even have any more, because he busted out). Somehow, I think we could have done SLIGHTLY better with a 1st round pick than the dream of Cody Ferriero, even if we didn't take Pacioretty, don't you?

Like in judging the value of a draft pick, this kind of analysis requires nuance. You have to balance the understandable desire to judge the results of an action with accounting for the situation when the trade was made.

For example, you could criticize DW severely for his asset management with Rivet. Those moves clearly didn't help, or even get the Sharks close to winning. Obviously, there is little value left. I can't see how the team's legacy or current product has benefited from those moves. But, you could contextualize the transactions. The Between 2006 and 2011, the Sharks were a team in its prime. With a top-5 goalie, a fantastic, young(ish, in the case of acquiring Wallin), forward group, they were lacking on the backend but poised for a deep playoff run. Trading away future assets for current help is something every good GM should do; that is a bet he has to make.

Of course, there can be disagreements as to the conclusions of these arguments. Maybe you think that Rivet or Wallin helped the Sharks advance an extra playoff round, and that extra money was a big bonus for the Sharks. Or you can say that DW overrated the contending ability of his team when he sacrificed the future, or maybe you think that a good GM aims to be above average all the time rather than great for short periods.

But, the judgement of the moves will be predicated on what you emphasize. More emphasis on results, or more emphasis on the process....

 

[Sharksfan83]

Man the hate for Meier is disturbing. He is still a great pick, and TBH we don't know who's going to perform at the NHL level yet. He isn't a bust, he's putting up more PPG then last year when he played with Ehlers..

 

[hohosaregood]

I remember it was pretty much interchangeable between Meier, Rantanen, Connor, Crouse in the 9-13 slots.

 

[Jwec]

We didn't play as badly as the score suggests but still I am not happy our play and effort. Especially Marleau hasn't been good lately and I'm not very sad if we trade him at the deadline if we get good return. And when we get Marleau's salary off the books we can make big moves. For example get Kadri from the Leafs etc.

And Thornton has been playing well. He was good at this game too. When we have Jumbo playing this level we have a chance to win the cup so in my opinion we should go all in this and next year.

And next game I would try Tierney with Marleau. Tierney is playmaker and Marleau is shooter. Lines would be something like

Hertl-Thornton-Pavelski
Donskoi-Couture-Wingels
Marleau-Tierney-Ward
Karlsson-Zubrus-Nieto

If this is not going to work we need great 3rd line C or good top 6 winger. That should be no.1 priority at the deadline.

 

[Harbessix]

People seem to disregard that Tim Burke and his scouting staff have a large say in who the Sharks draft, it's not as though DW is ignoring their advice and deciding he wants this guy or that guy on a whim....

 

[Barrie22]

People seem to disregard that Tim Burke and his scouting staff have a large say in who the Sharks draft, it's not as though DW is ignoring their advice and deciding he wants this guy or that guy on a whim....

He is also the one who hired them.

 

[Harbessix]

He is also the one who hired them.

I'm glad he did as they've done a great job, most of our team is their work. Hertl, Pavelski, Nieto, Couture, Wingels, Tierney, Vlasic, Braun, Demelo ect...... Not to mention great prospects like Meier, Goldobin, Labanc, Roy, Chartier, Sadowy and so on, you get the point

 

[Coily]

He is also the one who hired them.

Tim Burke was around long before Doug Wilson.

 

[do0glas]

Not gonna lie is like to see brown back for a bit.

 

[Bowie22]

Every shorks pick is a bust

 

[stator]

Guys, I've been saying this for much of the season... the Sharks are not likely to win a conference or cup finals with Marleau and Thornton. It's time to move on a rebuild that core group of aging players who defined the Sharks over the last half decade or so. Marleau even does not want to be here.

It's time for DW to scrap together the best trade deal he can get for them, although he hung onto that duo too long.

In this league, the prize is first or worst. Worst for the draft pick due to the salary cap that keeps getting tighter as it matures. Stringing years of 1st round and 2nd round playoff exits is the absolute worse position to be in.

 

[Sideshow Raheem]

Guys, I've been saying this for much of the season... the Sharks are not likely to win a conference or cup finals with Marleau and Thornton. It's time to move on a rebuild that core group of aging players who defined the Sharks over the last half decade or so. Marleau even does not want to be here.

It's time for DW to scrap together the best trade deal he can get for them, although he hung onto that duo too long.

In this league, the prize is first or worst. Worst for the draft pick due to the salary cap that keeps getting tighter as it matures. Stringing years of 1st round and 2nd round playoff exits is the absolute worse position to be in.

Great idea, let's get rid of our best player in a season where we don't have our first round pick.