GDT: 160206 Sharks @ Predators CSNCA 5pm

[Alwalys]

The thing is, no matter how much parity there is, there is still no substitute for skill. No matter the systems, no matter the bounces (which, again, even out over a large sample size such as an 82-game season), the best teams usually win. The only team that you could even remotely argue didn't deserve a Cup in the past 5 years was the 2012 Kings, and even still, only because they got a cupcake matchup every round.

The best teams find ways to win.

the team that wins the Cup is only one of 30 teams.

we are seeing too many mirage teams have too much success in the league today. colorado, calgary, anaheim in the 1-goal special year, etc.

this year a ton of teams we've seen are dismal on the ice but somehow are above us in the standings.

 

[Pavelski2112]

the team that wins the Cup is only one of 30 teams.

When you have a team that has won 3 of the last 6 and another with 2 in 3, maybe it's not just luck?

 

[jakeytown]

The offense has absolutely been better right off the bat.

The defensive play is a lot better too, I'm pretty sure the shots against per game are down quite a bit. Niemi had a 0.22 GAA higher last season than what Jones had coming into this game, but only a point lower save percentage. When two goalies have roughly the same save percentage but a difference in GAA that significant, it's because the higher GAA goalie had to face more shots.

I haven't compared the shots against from last year to this year, but they're definitely lower.

Which is why I don't get the Jones love. Maybe it's everyone trying to rationalize the 1st going to Boston. But if niemi were our goalie this year, putting up Jones' numbers, everyone would be talking about trying to upgrade. Which is funny, because niemi was putting up those numbers as our goalie and everyone was talking about trying to upgrade lol

 

[Alwalys]

When you have a team that has won 3 of the last 6 and another with 2 in 3, maybe it's not just luck?

again that is one team every year. there are a lot of other teams to consider as to whether the game is manifesting the correct results.

and often the winner ends up benefiting from some incorrect results.

 

[Pavelski2112]

the team that wins the Cup is only one of 30 teams.

we are seeing too many mirage teams have too much success in the league today. colorado, calgary, anaheim in the 1-goal special year, etc.

lolwut, these teams are terrible and everyone knows they're terrible. So they have a good year? They go right back to being terrible again, that's called regression. Again, things evening out.

See how once they hit the playoffs they flame out immediately? That's because they routinely face better, not luckier, teams.

 

[Pavelski2112]

again that is one team every year. there are a lot of other teams to consider as to whether the game is manifesting the correct results.

and often the winner ends up benefiting from some incorrect results.

So you're saying a team with Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith has the same chance of winning the Cup as Nazem Kadri and Dion Phanuef?

 

[Bleedred]

And the reason I've been so adamant about pulling Jones is pretty simple.

He's gonna be starting most of the games, he's on pace to start like 72 games this season? Giving him off a period here and there, could add up a little bit. If not just slightly, especially in a garbage time game like this.

It's evident that we're not gonna be seeing much of Stalock down the stretch. Not that I'm completely against giving him a few starts, just prepare for them to not be very good starts from him.

So every little bit counts. Need a better backup next year though, or he's playing a similarly high amount of games again. The problem with the backups on the market is they're the kinds of players that have fluctuated from year to year. Al Montoya was terrible last season, he's been amazing this year. Chad Johnson is great one year, sucks terribly the next, then is above average again. I'd like my luck with them more than Stalock or Grosenick though.

 

[Alwalys]

lolwut, these teams are terrible and everyone knows they're terrible. So they have a good year? They go right back to being terrible again, that's called regression. Again, things evening out.

See how once they hit the playoffs they flame out immediately? That's because they routinely face better, not luckier, teams.

and better, more competitive teams end up missing the playoffs entirely. that's the point.

 

[Alwalys]

So you're saying a team with Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith has the same chance of winning the Cup as Nazem Kadri and Dion Phanuef?

no i'm saying the cup winning team is not the only team in the league and not the only team that matters.

 

[Pavelski2112]

no i'm saying the cup winning team is not the only team in the league and not the only team that matters.

Actually, yes...yes it is. That's the entire point of playing the game.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

And the reason I've been so adamant about pulling Jones is pretty simple.

He's gonna be starting most of the games, he's on pace to start like 72 games this season? Giving him off a period here and there, could add up a little bit. If not just slightly, especially in a garbage time game like this.

It's evident that we're not gonna be seeing much of Stalock down the stretch. Not that I'm completely against giving him a few starts, just prepare for them to not be very good starts from him.

So every little bit counts. Need a better backup next year though, or he's playing a similarly high amount of games again. The problem with the backups on the market is they're the kinds of players that have fluctuated from year to year. Al Montoya was terrible last season, he's been amazing this year. Chad Johnson is great one year, sucks terribly the next, then is above average again. I'd like my luck with them more than Stalock or Grosenick though.

If it was a home game and you're staying at home, I could at least understand the decision but with such little time and them travelling after the game anyway, it's not going to get you anything. He's still going to be tired from playing and he's still going to be tired from getting in late.

 

[Bleedred]

Which is why I don't get the Jones love. Maybe it's everyone trying to rationalize the 1st going to Boston. But if niemi were our goalie this year, putting up Jones' numbers, everyone would be talking about trying to upgrade. Which is funny, because niemi was putting up those numbers as our goalie and everyone was talking about trying to upgrade lol

I do think that Jones has a higher ceiling than Niemi, so I'm fine with Jones over Niemi long term.

I did say last season that if Niemi is going, it needs to be for an upgrade. Unless it was more about a culture change and cutting ties and weeding out a guy who was around for some unmemorable years. There were a couple others weeded out over the last couple years, but they were also old. Like Boyle and Hannan.

 

[Alwalys]

Actually, yes...yes it is. That's the entire point of playing the game.

then why are you a fan of a team that has never won a cup?
gtfo.

 

[Pavelski2112]

then why are you a fan of a team that has never won a cup?
gtfo.

Because I have hope that someday the Sharks might. And also because I have hometown pride. But saying that the Sharks will win a Cup without being the best team in the league would be foolish.

The Sharks don't matter right now. It's unfortunate, but it's the truth. And until they can show that they can do some damage, it will stay that way.

 

[Bleedred]

All in all, I'm more happy with Jones than Reimer. Reimer seemed to be on a lot of people's wishlists here. And while he's having an amazing season, this season is also a hell of a lot better than his career average. Same with Michal Neuvirth. These guys are performing well above their career norms this season.

 

[Alwalys]

Because I have hope that someday the Sharks might.

oh so a team other than the cup winners matters now?
you know as well as i do what i'm saying. the question of why the sharks aren't better is purely based on results, exactly what i'm saying, which is that too few made plays create goals.

this is just bad. when a team makes a play against another team that has not made a mistake, that should have MORE value than one that takes advantage of a mistake. the league currently has that inverted.

 

[DystopianTierney]

Well, that was what I was expecting to watch on Tuesday.

Hope CSN doesn't air a rerun.

 

[hockeyball]

Which is why I don't get the Jones love. Maybe it's everyone trying to rationalize the 1st going to Boston. But if niemi were our goalie this year, putting up Jones' numbers, everyone would be talking about trying to upgrade. Which is funny, because niemi was putting up those numbers as our goalie and everyone was talking about trying to upgrade lol

Jones numbers are not great this year, but they've been great recently and he's never carried close to this amount of load. I see far more potential in Jones than Niemi. No he hasn't really been better than Niemi this year, but he will likely be better than him in the future. Also, Niemi was godamn awful in the playoffs, and we haven't seen how Jones plays there yet. Niemi's worthless playoff numbers are likely the biggest reason he was let go, he just never came up big, never played his best hockey when it mattered.

This was a bad game, but Rinne has been horrible recently (I know cause my two goalies in fantasy are Jones and Rinne ) too. It's just too early to know with Jones, he likely won't peak as a goalie for a few more seasons.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Come on, it's not like he's playing with AHL talent here. Ward is tied with Marleau for 3rd on the team in goals and Nieto is the only forward on the Sharks with the speed to keep up with him. He hasn't been good lately and it's a legit issue, I can't believe you would even debate this.

For the entirely of his career, Marleau has rarely shown the ability to "carry" a line. Other than some brief times in 2006 and 2007, when he centered Michalek and Bernier, Marleau has always been second-fiddle on a line, or sharing the weight (more or less) with someone else. Granted, much of that is because he's been moved to the wing, where he less effectively can carry a line, but maybe that's the provenance of the move.

Right now, he's the center on the line, and clearly the most talented player on it. I don't know if he is suited for carrying that line.

On the game, Rinne was solid. The Nashville team played their textbook strong defensive hockey. Once the Predators got going, the Sharks had a hard time getting to the middle. Nashville kept them to the outside, away from rebounds, and away from dangerous area. All the possession and shots in the world won't help you in that situation.

 

[Coily]

Jones numbers are not great this year, but they've been great recently and he's never carried close to this amount of load. I see far more potential in Jones than Niemi. No he hasn't really been better than Niemi this year, but he will likely be better than him in the future. Also, Niemi was godamn awful in the playoffs, and we haven't seen how Jones plays there yet. Niemi's worthless playoff numbers are likely the biggest reason he was let go, he just never came up big, never played his best hockey when it mattered.

This was a bad game, but Rinne has been horrible recently (I know cause my two goalies in fantasy are Jones and Rinne ) too. It's just too early to know with Jones, he likely won't peak as a goalie for a few more seasons.

Only time Niemi was "good" in the playoffs was against SJ in 2010... FML.

 

[Episkey]

It's just too early to know with Jones, he likely won't peak as a goalie for a few more seasons.

Which is unfortunate because we likely won't be nearly as competitive 2-3 years from now as we are this season. Marleau and/or Thornton will probably be gone, Pavelski and Burns aging. The group of younger guys and prospects that will fill bigger roles are a step down from what we have now. And unless DW somehow acquires a high pick or top young player, things will get worse before they get better. The Sharks time to win is now.

 

[Sideshow Raheem]

Only time Niemi was "good" in the playoffs was against SJ in 2010... FML.

Nah. He had a .920 SV% in 2010-11 (while starting something crazy like 35 games in a row down the stretch) and was a Vezina finalist in 2012-13. I think Niemi's Sharks career (great year, meh year, great year, meh year, etc.) is on the higher end of what we should expect with Jones.

 

[Alwalys]

One thing people are not remembering is how much defensive commitment was required to support Niemi. Part of what Jones gives is more offense by being less dependent on conservative defence.

 

[Coily]

Which is unfortunate because we likely won't be nearly as competitive 2-3 years from now as we are this season. Marleau and/or Thornton will probably be gone, Pavelski and Burns aging. The group of younger guys and prospects that will fill bigger roles are a step down from what we have now. And unless DW somehow acquires a high pick or top young player, things will get worse before they get better. The Sharks time to win is now.

DW did have a top pick. He chose poorly.

 

[Bleedred]

I thought Niemi was VERY good in the 2013 playoffs. Even in that Kings series, goaltending was not the reason for that loss.

The 2011 playoffs he was pretty brutal. Sub 90% save percentage and a 3+ GAA over 18 games. If it was those numbers in a one series playoff year or smaller sample size, that wouldn't be as bad. But that would have been the worst goalie number of a Stanley Cup Finalist in I can't remember how long. But he probably would have had to have a 90% just to win that WCF Vancouver series and even get to the SCF.

Nabokov wasn't good in the 2010 run either. Though Nabby was a beast in 2004 in the WCF run.

Niemi was whatever in the 2012 series and the horrific numbers in 2014 playoffs were only 6 games, but I didn't think he was very good in game 5 and was behind Stalock getting the start in game 6. A lot of people blame him for game 7. I can't fault him on two of the goals and the Doughty goal might not have really been a bad one, but I still can't understand why he was laying down on it pretty much. If he's not flopping around, it might hit him in the chest or shoulder.