Ogopogo*
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Hockey Outsider said:Ogopogo: first off I'm enjoying all these studies you're posting. I hope you continue to post here.
Now a few points specifically about this player rating system:
- Here are selections for the Conn Smythe trophy for years prior: http://www.hhof.com/html/newsconn.shtml. They were selected by a commitee for the Society for International Hockey Research, from 1918-1964 (so every year is covered). You may want to consider incorparating that data.
- You said you filled in all the blanks for the Hart, Norris and all-stars. I would be very interested to see these results. Can you post them and/or e-mail them to me? Thanks.
- You may want to give a couple of points to the runner-up for the Hart and/or Norris. That was players who are stuck playing alongside legends (ie Brad Park was runner-up for the Norris 6 times, 4 times to Orr) get some more credit.
- My biggest problem with the list is that it doesn't take defense into account. I can't offer any specific suggestions as to how you can improve that, but in evaluating great players defense is crucial. Example: Yzerman and Bure are tied. If defense was taken into account, Bure would fall and Yzerman would rank higher. (However, you could make the argument that voters always take defense into account when making all-star and MVP/Norris selections... not that this would eliminate the problem, but it would reduce its severity)
Again, good work!
And yes, you are correct. My answer is that defense is taken care of by the voters for the all-stars and awards. There really is no other way to account for defense. There is no reliable stat that has been tracked since 1917 nor is there really a stat that can do it. Eyewitnesses are the only thing we can rely on for defense and, the all-stars and awards are what we have.
Again, not perfect but, the best we can do with the available resources.
Thank you for the Conn Smythe projections. If I had Hart and Norris voting results for all time, then we would be really cooking!