zeke's Official Top-20 Center Rankings

[PenguinSpeed]

yeah it's utter domination for Mcdavid at this point.

-Can you add in playoff numbers now? Since Mcdavid, Matthews, Laine etc.. stink in the playoffs and the playoffs are 10 times or more valuable then regular season.

 

[Slap]

And by official, I mean mine, of course.

So after all the fighting on the other threads, i tried to crank out a stats-based Center ranking, but nothing too fancy. At the same time it's both complicated and simple.


NOTE: IF YOU HATE STATS JUST SKIP TO THE BOTTOM FOR THE FINAL RANKINGS

Here's how I approached it.

I looked at the last 2 seasons. This imo is the best combo of "recent" and "good sample size" to judge a player's current value. But it's not perfect, of course, especially when it comes to very young or old players. But it's a good place to start. Second, I put an absolute cutoff at a minimum of 14 ES minutes played per game.

So firstly, I used "Offense" as my most basic criteria for the list of "top centers". i.e. to be a top center, you have to score like one, and if you can't score, you're not a top center no matter how good you are defensively. To judge offense, I used the even strength p/60 and p1/60 stats - basically I ranked the top-30 centers in p/60, and the top-30 centers in p1/60, and then combined the ranks. I know some people might complain about ignoring PP production, but imo PP production is way too noisy and small sample and any offensive ability the players have should show up at even strength anyways. But that wasn't enough - I wanted to adjust this offense for quality of competition as well - so that guys with easier matchups didn't get extra credit. I used opponents' ice time (TOIqoc) to judge quality of competition, and combined it with the scoring ranks. Note that this used their league-wide TOIqoc ranks, of all centers who played minimum 14es mpg. Here's the list of Top Offensive Centers I came up with:

Top Offensive Centers Last 2yrs

1.McDavid 7
2.MacKinnon 22
3.Scheifele 25
4.Crosby 27
5.Matthews 31
6.Barkov 33
7.Malkin 34
8.Stamkos 37
9.Tavares 40
10.Getzlaf 41
11.Backstrom 46
11.Couturier 46
13.Kopitar 48
13.Barzal 48
15.Toews 49
15.Monahan 49
17.Kuznetsov 52
18.Seguin 54
19.Kadri 56
20.Staal 58
21.Bergeron 60
22.Eichel 60
23.Point 68
24.Duchene 72
25.Stastny 72
26.Zetterberg 73
27.Krejci 89
28.Horvat 92

Some surprises on this list when QOC is factored in - namely, that a guy like Toews is still quite good offensively, while guys like Malkin and Kuz really get hammered for going up against much easier competition than most of the others.


Secondly, I wanted to factor in Possession. This was a bit more complicated, but basically I averaged out zone/score adjusted CF% and xGF% and ranked them, and then averaged out zone/score adjusted CFrel and xGFrel and ranked them......and then combined their ranks. Now key here is that I kind of cheated - because I was using OFFENSE as the main determinant of "top center", I didn't look at league-wide possession, but I only looked at the 28 centers who made the Offense list and ranked their possession against each other. I think the basic principal makes sense, though of course my execution of it is pretty hacktastic. And then, again, I needed to adjust for Quality of Competition, so once again I combined the averaged possession ranks with the TOIqoc ranks, and ranked these 28 centers' possession against each other:

Last 2yrs best offensive centers in order of Possession:

1.Bergeron 10
2.McDavid 12
3.Crosby 18
4.Couturier 21
5.Kopitar 28
6.Toews 29
7.Barkov 30
8.Scheifele 32
9.Tavares 39
10.Backstrom 39
11.MacKinnon 41
12.Getzlaf 44
13.Stastny 49
14.Staal 51
15.Kadri 54
16.Stamkos 55
17.Matthews 57
18.Point 59
19.Zetterberg 60
20.Seguin 61
21.Barzal 61
22.Malkin 70
23.Monahan 71
24.Duchene 72
25.Eichel 74
26.Kuznetsov 82
27.Krejci 83
28.Horvat 87

this seems to pass the smell test to me. all the guys with the great defensive reputations are right at the top, while the guys at the bottom are the guys you expect.

So now with these two lists, I just combined the qoc-adjusted offense and the qoc-adjusted possession, and it spat out this list:

ZEKE'S PERFECT TOP-20 CENTER RANKINGS

1.McDavid 19
2.Crosby 45
3.Scheifele 57
4.Barkov 63
5.MacKinnon 63
6.Couturier 67
7.Bergeron 70
8.Kopitar 76
9.Toews 78
10.Tavares 79
11.Getzlaf 85
12.Backstrom 85
13.Matthews 88
14.Stamkos 92
15.Malkin 104
16.Staal 109
17.Barzal 109
18.Kadri 110
19.Seguin 115
20.Monahan 120
​

Some guys stick out in surprising ways here - Couturier comes out looking really, really good, while a guy like Malkin drops way down. Guys like Kuznetsov and Eichel don't even make the list at all. Thing is, I don't have any problem with any of those results. In the end, I love how the list rewards guys like Barkov and Bergeron while also acknowledging the question marks on guys like Malkin and Barzal.

Note, though, that this isn't a prediction of which centers are necessarily the best RIGHT NOW, heading into THIS SEASON. To do that I would want to add in some kind of Age adjustment, which would favor which would bump up kids like Eichel, Barzal, Matthews while knocking down guys like Backstrom and Staal a bit.



So what do you think? does my list beat the NHL's? or the famous Hockey Guy's?

or is it poop?

I like you Zeke. Wouldn't change anything.

 

[zeke]

You didn't address the hypocrisy. When you argued you would never in a million years trade Kessel for Bergeron(!) all you cared about was total offense. And when you argued Bozak and Stajan(!) were better than Bergeron all you cared about was total offense. Why the convenient change of heart?

Matt stajan? I'd like to think that I've learned a thing or two in the last.....TEN YEARS.

but I still don't know why you keep bringing up Kessel - he would fare well on a list like this.

 

[ACC1224]

Good job Zeke.

 

[MardyBum]

Good list. Nice to see one laid out with advanced stats rather than straight opinion. People will always disagree with what stats are used and how they're weighted, but the best effort of ranking the C's so far this offseason, easily.

 

[StoneHands]

Funny how you're such a big fan of even strength scoring now. When Phil Kessel was on the Leafs and putting up 30% of his points on the powerplay you didn't feel that way. Now that Matthews is the Leafs best player and struggling on powerplay, you don't think powerplay points count at all.

He has Tavares and Matthews ranked 10th and 13th while most other leafs fans have them both in the top 7-8. It's not like he used a specific metric to fit an agenda which placed both Tavares and Matthews in the top 5 or something. I don't agree with ignoring PP production but he certainly didn't do Matthews any favors.

 

[PenguinSpeed]

He has Tavares and Matthews ranked 10th and 13th while most other leafs fans have them both in the top 7-8. It's not like he used a specific metric to fit an agenda which placed both Tavares and Matthews in the top 5 or something. I don't agree with ignoring PP production but he certainly didn't do Matthews any favors.

-Considering the PowerPlay is a gigantic part of the game of hockey..... Especially in the playoffs

 

[BruinsBtn]

He has Tavares and Matthews ranked 10th and 13th while most other leafs fans have them both in the top 7-8. It's not like he used a specific metric to fit an agenda which placed both Tavares and Matthews in the top 5 or something. I don't agree with ignoring PP production but he certainly didn't do Matthews any favors.

Yes he did. Matthews would be lower on this list with powerplay production included.

 

[StoneHands]

Yes he did. Matthews would be lower on this list with powerplay production included.

No, he really wouldn't considering he used Points/60 for everything. Matthews doesn't have a ton of PP points but he also doesn't get a ton of PP time so his PP Points/60 is pretty good.

 

[LeafFever]

What great work. Terrific list.

 

[BruinsBtn]

No, he really wouldn't considering he used Points/60 for everything. Matthews doesn't have a ton of PP points but he also doesn't get a ton of PP time so his PP Points/60 is pretty good.

Matthews isn't 5th in the league in points per 60 minutes, so uhhhh, you're wrong.

 

[Advanced stats]

Props Zeke..looks great!

 

[Laineux]

Matthews isn't 5th in the league in points per 60 minutes, so uhhhh, you're wrong.

It's possible to be 1st in esp/60 and 1st in ppp/60 and 1st in pkp/60 and still not be top 5 in points/60. All-situations p/60 is a completely useless stat.

 

[zeke]

Like I said a good attempt to objectively assess the centers.
The problem I’ve always had with taking certain stats is that they don’t tell the whole story. In other words it’s not that the stats aren’t useful it’s the weight given to the stats and the choice of certain stats that lead to anomalous results.
In the end I always look for anomalous results (ie results that are way off not results I just disagree with) and ask the question would any GM trade one player for another.
A few anomalies IMO:
1. Malkin way too low.
2. Couts, Toews, Kadri and Monahan way too high.
If I had to guess at the reasons it would be placing an over emphasis on QOC which turns second line centers who are relied on heavily by a team into first line centers in your rankings.

no doubt I place great importance on QOC. thing is, Malkin is the actual 2nd line center that gets turned into a 1st line center by other stats. Couts, Toews, Monahan are all clearcut #1Cs on their teams, not sheltered 2nd line guys. And kadri over the last 2yrs started as the #1C as Matthews was eased into the league.

I also think that ignoring PP production leads to anomalies like Malkin. A highly productive PP player is a huge asset in today’s NHL.

true, though again the difference you're thinking of is probably exaggerated by PP minutes. and I still think the PP is way too prone to small sample fluke and opporunity to get a good read from it. I'm not really sure why a player's superior true talent offense wouldn't show up at even strength.

and, of course, if we include PP we should probably include PK too.

But here's how these 28 rank in PP p/60 over the last 2yrs

1.Stamkos 7.51
2.Malkin 7.11
3.Backstrom 6.70
4.Seguin 6.45
5.Crosby 6.44
6.Kadri 6.33
7.Matthews 6.29
8.Eichel 6.12
9.Kuznetsov 6.00
10.McDavid 5.72
11.MacKinnon 5.71
12.Barzal 5.65
13.Kopitar 5.63
14.Bergeron 5.52
15.Getzlaf 5.32
16.Tavares 5.41
17.Staal 5.05
18.Krejci 4.71
19.Horvat 4.47
20.Scheifele 4.12
21.Zetterberg 4.06
22.Barkov 3.98
23.Point 3.92
24.Monahan 3.91
25.Toews 3.88
26.Stastny 3.44
27.Duchene 2.98
28.Couturier 2.56

and p1/60:

1.Stamkos 5.82
2.Kadri 5.28
3.Seguin 4.78
4.Crosby 4.65
5.Bergeron 4.65
6.Matthews 4.49
7.Malkin 4.43
8.MacKinnon 4.22
9.Backstrom 3.97
10.Tavares 3.94
11.Getzlaf 3.87
12.Kuznetsov 3.77
13.Staal 3.75
14.Horvat 3.72
15.Eichel 3.70
16.Krejci 3.49
17.Monahan 3.32
18.McDavid 3.23
19.Kopitar 3.14
20.Stastny 2.97
21.Zetterberg 2.84
22.Barzal 2.82
23.Duchene 2.54
24.Toews 2.44
25.Barkov 2.33
26.Scheifele 2.27
27.Point 2.05
28.Couturier 1.92

and then we combine them:

1.Stamkos 2
2.Seguin 7
3.Kadri 8
4.Crosby 9
5.Malkin 9
6.Backstrom 12
7.Matthews 13
8.MacKinnon 19
9.Bergeron 19
10.Kuznetsov 21
11.Eichel 23
12.Tavares 26
13.Getzlaf 26
14.McDavid 28
15.Staal 30
16.Kopitar 32
17.Horvat 33
18.Barzal 34
19.Krejci 34
20.Monahan 41
21.Zetterberg 42
22.Stastny 46
23.Scheifele 46
24.Barkov 47
25.Toews 49
26.Point 50
27.Duchene 50
28.Couturier 56

already I think you can see more anomalies pop up in the PP numbers, most of which is likely just small sample size issue. Or maybe scheifele really just sucks on the PP for some reason, I dunno.

Including the PP numbers would give a solid boost to Stamkos/Seguin/Kadri/Crosby/Malkin (2-3 spots maybe?) and would hurt Scheifele, Barkov, Toews, Couturier by a similar amount.

If I just eyeball it, maybe it would change my list into this?


1.McDavid 19
2.Crosby 45
3.MacKinnon 63
4.Bergeron 70
5.Scheifele 57
6.Barkov 63
7.Kopitar 76
8.Tavares 79
9.Couturier 67
10.Stamkos 92
11.Backstrom 85
12.Matthews 88
13.Getzlaf 85
14.Toews 78
15.Malkin 104
16.Kadri 110
17.Seguin 115
18.Staal 109
19.Barzal 109
20.Monahan 120

maybe something like that? does that look better?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Great overall work. Can't knock the process too much. My only issue is the complete ignoring of a player's powerplay contributions. Considering how a team like the Oilers missed the playoffs in large part because of a terrible special teams (PP included), we can see how important it is to actually produce on the PP.

I think a guy like Malkin gets unfairly knocked for being productive on the PP because those stats basically vanish into thin air in these kinds of evaluations of top centers.

 

[zeke]

Yes he did. Matthews would be lower on this list with powerplay production included.

no he wouldn't. Matthews has been one of the best PP producers in the league over his 2yrs in the league.

 

[BruinsBtn]

no he wouldn't. Matthews has been one of the best PP producers in the league over his 2yrs in the league.

Fire up your spreadsheet zeke.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I think we've seen Malkin dominate without Crosby enough that we needn't dock him for his QoC.

 

[StoneHands]

Matthews isn't 5th in the league in points per 60 minutes, so uhhhh, you're wrong.

When the hell did I say he was 5th in the league in points/60? I said him not using PP points doesn't necessarily boost Matthews because Matthews PP points/60 is very good. At this point, I have no idea what part of my post you were even responding to.

Also, Matthews is 6th in overall points/60 as it relates to this thread and he has him ranked 13th so no, he didn't do him any favors.

 

[43Kadri43]

Fire up your spreadsheet zeke.

Dude, you’re losing this argument so badly. I’d ask you to stop, but it’s rather entertaining reading your inane rebuttals.

 

[zeke]

1.Stamkos 2
2.Seguin 7
3.Kadri 8
4.Crosby 9
5.Malkin 9
6.Backstrom 12
7.Matthews 13
8.MacKinnon 19
9.Bergeron 19
10.Kuznetsov 21
11.Eichel 23
12.Tavares 26
13.Getzlaf 26
14.McDavid 28
15.Staal 30
16.Kopitar 32
17.Horvat 33
18.Barzal 34
19.Krejci 34
20.Monahan 41
21.Zetterberg 42
22.Stastny 46
23.Scheifele 46
24.Barkov 47
25.Toews 49
26.Point 50
27.Duchene 50
28.Couturier 56

already I think you can see more anomalies pop up in the PP numbers, most of which is likely just small sample size issue. Or maybe scheifele really just sucks on the PP for some reason, I dunno.

Including the PP numbers would give a solid boost to Stamkos/Seguin/Kadri/Crosby/Malkin (2-3 spots maybe?) and would hurt Scheifele, Barkov, Toews, Couturier by a similar amount.

If I just eyeball it, maybe it would change my list into this?


1.McDavid 19
2.Crosby 45
3.MacKinnon 63
4.Bergeron 70
5.Scheifele 57
6.Barkov 63
7.Kopitar 76
8.Tavares 79
9.Couturier 67
10.Stamkos 92
11.Backstrom 85
12.Matthews 88
13.Getzlaf 85
14.Toews 78
15.Malkin 104
16.Kadri 110
17.Seguin 115
18.Staal 109
19.Barzal 109
20.Monahan 120

maybe something like that? does that look better?

or maybe I can do better than just eyeball it.

If I add their combined PP RANK to their previous overall "score", the list comes out like this:

1.McDavid 33
2.Crosby 49
3.Scheifele 70
4.Mackinnon 71
5.Bergeron 79
6.Barkov 87
7.Tavares 91
7.Backstrom 91
9.Kopitar 92
10.Stamkos 93
11.Matthews 95
11.Couturier 95
13.Getzlaf 98
14.Toews 103
15.Malkin 109
16.Kadri 113
17.Seguin 117
18.Staal 124
19.Barzal 127
20.Monahan 140

something like that. this probably actually weighs PP production too heavily. but whatever.

but even PP success doesn't let a guy like Malkin overcome his weak competition and possession numbers in this comparison`, surprisingly.

 

[Adtar02]

ah. yes Draisaitl - I actually didn't include him (or giroux) as centers here. Over the last 2yrs both have played at least half their games on the wing, and achieved by far their most success there.

Drai would come out looking very good in this analysis, no doubt.

this is not true. Giroux switch to wing last year so not over half the time the past two years. He also took more draws than people on your list. No problem with excluding him but he was a about a 1/2 a center last year. and full time the year before.

 

[zeke]

I think we've seen Malkin dominate without Crosby enough that we needn't dock him for his QoC.

The last time we saw that happen was 7 seasons ago, though. Malkin's 32 now, not 25.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The other issue with placing such a strong emphasis on any sort of QoC stat is, it will always punish players who play behind another star. I think in a guy like Malkin's case, sometimes the "eye test" and the raw production test is a better indicator of where he ranks league-wide than any sort of advanced stats measurement. I think he's an anomaly to these rankings.

I'm genuinely curious how these kinds of lists would affect whichever of the Sakic/Forsberg or Yzerman/Fedorov or Gretzky/Messier duo ended up facing easier competition because of the other guy.

 

[zeke]

The other issue with placing such a strong emphasis on any sort of QoC stat is, it will always punish players who play behind another star.

but it shouldn't punish him - he should be able to dominate possesion in those easier minutes like, say, Barzal did last year.