Seravalli: Zadorov thinks he can get 6X6

[The Great Weal]

I think he gets the 6, but the term would be the oof part. Maybe 3 years but going 6 years just seems like a buyout waiting to happen come that 4th year.

Yeah I think the term is the bigger issue here.

 

[Draiskull]

If he's a number four defensemen why does he nearly exclusively play third pairing minutes across almost every team he's been on?

He is averaging 20mins/night in these playoffs without much PP time. He will get paid because of it.

Even his career avg regular season is 18mins/gp without PP time which easily makes him a #4 .

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I'd be surprised if he doesn't get at least 5x5. This seems very possible to me. Ryan Graves got 4.5m x 6 for comparison.

I don't think there is any question he can get 5X5, I think that's the minimum

 

[BKarchitect]

If he's a number four defensemen why does he nearly exclusively play third pairing minutes across almost every team he's been on?

He's playing 20 minutes a night and thriving during the most critical part of the season.

We all now Big Z has had consistency issues and has struggled in the past when exposed too much. I think it's perfectly fair to say "such a contract is really risky" because we haven't seen this playoff usage for an extended period.

But at the same time, it's certainly not inconceivable that he's simply matured as a player and is now paying off the confidence a team has in him to be a critical, higher usage defender during crunch time hockey stakes.

Z is a rare bird in terms of his physical skillset - guys his size and toughness rarely can skate like him and have offensive tools that can "pop" - and there's a reason most fanbases who have watched him play find him rather endearing, if frustrating also, in the past. But if he's reigned in his bonehead tendencies even a little and is showing some maturity in an expanded role, that slight bit of polish will definitely push him into "very desirable" category for this summer.

 

[Golden_Jet]

If he's a number four defensemen why does he nearly exclusively play third pairing minutes across almost every team he's been on?

Third most minutes on Vancouver in playoffs at 20 minutes per game.
He’s going to get 5+ a season, I think.

 

[Zirakzigil]

He’s a #4 on a good team. Anyone paying beyond that will regret it.

 

[Crow]

He wasn’t even playing like a 2nd pairing guy on a terrible hawks team not too long ago. I understand he is on a good run. His playoffs are going to make him so overpaid and for a long time. That’s how I see it.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Third most minutes on Vancouver in playoffs at 20 minutes per game.
He’s going to get 5+ a season, I think.

That's nice. It's also 12 games.

Let's see what's he done over the regular season.

TOI among defensemen:

23/24 (Vancouver): 6th
23/24 (Calgary): 6th
22/23: 5th
21/22: 6th
20/21: 3rd
19/20: 5th

So over the past five seasons Zadorov has played for four teams and received top four minutes once. The Blackhawks team he finished third in TOI on finished 21st in the standings and 24th in goals against.

Multiple franchises and coaches view him as a third pairing defender when it comes to actual use.

All relevant usage evidence clearly paints a bottom pairing defender.

 

[Shane Diesel]

He's playing 20 minutes a night and thriving Z is a rare bird in terms of his physical skillset - guys his size and toughness rarely can skate like him and have offensive tools that can "pop" -

He averages 19 points across 82 regular season games in his whole NHL career. You have an incredibly liberal definition of offensive ability.

 

[biturbo19]

Yeah I think the term is the bigger issue here.

The thing about term is...there are always plenty of GMs who know that unless they hit a homerun, there's no chance they'll even be around in 3 years, much less 6. So there are always guys willing to throw out braindead risky term.

He is averaging 20mins/night in these playoffs without much PP time. He will get paid because of it.

Even his career avg regular season is 18mins/gp without PP time which easily makes him a #4 .

Yeah. Doing it on the biggest stage is likely to be a huge factor in how other GMs view him come July.

He's generally been a bit of a #4/5 "tweener" for the majority of his career. In terms of EVTOI he hovers right around that line. But adding a ton of PK minutes tends to push him over the line i think. Whereas when people look at overall TOI in total, his lack of PP minutes would push him below the threshold most of the time. But i tend to view the 5v5+PK tougher minutes as more relevant to ascertaining who is and is not a Top-4D. Where Zaddy has grown into a player who generally falls just within the realm of a #4D in more recent years.


The whole thing obviously carries an enormous amount of risk though, if he gets something along the lines of what he's asking. And i think it's highly likely he will. But it's a megadeal for a guy who has historically been right around the fringes of Top-4/5D tweener. But with a decidedly rare, specialist skillset that few other defencemen around the league offer.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

July 13, 2022. The Columbus Blue Jackets have signed free agent defenseman Erik Gudbranson to a four-year, $16 million contract ($4 million AAV)

UFAs on July 1st every year....

 

[Cancuks]

He could probably get even more than $6 million from a team like the Hawks or Sharks but I think he takes less to play in Florida where he can live year round since he doesn't go back to Russia.

 

[BKarchitect]

He averages 19 points across 82 regular season games in his whole NHL career. You have an incredibly liberal definition of offensive ability.

He's not an offensive defenseman. That doesn't mean he lacks some physical tools. We all know he has a howitzer of a shot. And he's generally better with the puck than most mean mugs his size. Of course you do not want him over-handling the puck, he gets in trouble when he brain farts and thinks he is capable of making moves he can't.

He's not a stooge for a guy his size, that's all I'm trying to get across. And the NHL will pay big, dumb stooge blueliners who turn into playoff turnstiles plenty well, so clearly he's going to blow by those Chiarot-type contracts easily. If you think Zadorov's performance this post-season isn't a flash in the pan, then - there's going to be plenty of bidding for him.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

As a leafs fan anything over 3mil per I’ll consider a bad deal. Do not want this guy on my team he’s a glorified 3rd pairing dman. I truly believe if you put Ryan reaves back there you won’t see a difference outside of skating. Both are useless outside of physical play and have no hockey IQ

 

[Shane Diesel]

He's not a stooge for a guy his size, that's all I'm trying to get acacross.c

His offense is acceptable for a third pairing defender. Nothing more nothing less.

 

[Double Dion]

His offense is acceptable for a third pairing defender. Nothing more nothing less.

He was 2nd in the ENTIRE NHL for ES goals by a defenseman last year. Kind of a silly post. I'm not saying he isn't a roller coaster sometimes, but he's probably the 2nd most physical defenseman in the league and skates ridiculously well not just for his size, but period.

His decision making and lack of purpose at times is frustrating, but I'd pay him 5X5 if I needed his skillset. I wouldn't do 6X6 though.

 

[BKarchitect]

As a leafs fan anything over 3mil per I’ll consider a bad deal. Do not want this guy on my team he’s a glorified 3rd pairing dman. I truly believe if you put Ryan reaves back there you won’t see a difference outside of skating. Both are useless outside of physical play and have no hockey IQ

This is absurd. Yeah, I’m sure Ryan Reaves would be leading a lengthy playoff run playing 20 minutes a night with 4 goals and 8 points in 12 games while being a dominant physical force.

Zadorov is actually pretty much everything the Leafs lack in the playoffs but then again maybe the continuous flameouts are a result of pro scouting that equates Nikita Zadorov to Ryan Reaves.

 

[Miller Time]

Old Frank was interviewed recently and he said that Zadorov thinks he can get 6X6.

I don't think 6X6 is out there, I think 5X6 might be, maybe 5.5X5, because he is big, and mobile for his size, and he's under 30, so I do think he's going to get a nice contract I just don't think it reaches 6X6

I won't be surprised
And
We'll end up seeing buyers remorse and a few years of Zadorov trade proposals starting sometime before Xmas lol

 

[Shane Diesel]

He was 2nd in the ENTIRE NHL for ES goals by a defenseman last year. Kind of a silly post.

Sorta proves my point you have to get this esoteric. How has his EV goal scoring been the other seasons of his career? How about his assists? Offense includes much more than EV goals.

I'm not saying he isn't a roller coaster sometimes, but he's probably the 2nd most physical defenseman in the league and skates ridiculously well not just for his size, but period.

What does any of that have to do with Zadorov's offense?

 

[Breakers]

I never thought Gudbranson could get $16 million

 

[Golden_Jet]

Sorta proves my point you have to get this esoteric. How has his EV goal scoring been the other seasons of his career? How about his assists? Offense includes much more than EV goals.


What does any of that have to do with Zadorov's offense?

Looks like your strictly a points guy, for evaluation.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Looks like your strictly a points guy, for evaluation.

You must've missed my reply to your post breaking out TOI. So no, not all.

Specifically, I was replying to a post about Zadorov having underrated offensive "pop". What's your preferred method for gauging a player's offensive ability if points are off the table? Why am I not allowed to discuss points if we're looking at a player holistically?

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Everyone will laugh if a team is this stupid

 

[Vivaldi]

Capitals signed Brooks Orpik for 5x5.5 and got absolutely roasted, but Orpik's intangibles ultimately helped them in winning a cup and pretty much no Caps fan was unhappy with that contract in the end. This was when the cap was substantially lower. Zadorov on the ice is a much better player than Orpik was in 2015 onward, literally has dimensions to his game Orpik didn't, and by all accounts has the same locker room intangibles. He stands out head and shoulders among the Canucks defensemen this playoff run even more than Quinn Hughes has. If I'm a team like the Leafs or the Canucks I absolutely overpay for him and don't look back, just make sure he fits with the rest of the team. People have a lot of trouble letting go of preconceived notions of players even if players hit a new level in their late 20s after eating dirt for 10 years in the league and getting their biggest flaws beaten out of them through raw experience. Barbashev, Dylan Strome, Zadorov, Hyman, Montour all very much were/are seen as more of what they were than what they now are.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You must' ve missed my reply to your post breaking out TOI. So no, not all.

Specifically, I was replying to a post about Zadorov having underrated offensive "pop". What's your preferred method for gauging a player's offensive ability if points are off the table? Why am I not allowed to discuss points if we're looking at a player holistically?

lol, poster shows second best 5 on 5 goal scoring, but that’s esoteric now.