Well I know OP wants us to vote Couturier but I think Bergeron might take it again this year.
He was better offensively (shouldn't be a factor but it is), was the 1C on the best team in the NHL which was #1 league wide in GA, and he has the reputation going for him. Those factors might be enough to swing the vote to Bergeron, even if Couturier does have the "he is due" bonus going for him.
I think Bergeron is ahead in some of stats that make him look better. More goals, better +/- (ridiculous they still look at this), more takeaways, far fewer giveaways whereas Couturier's advantage is better Corsi, Fenwick, and harder zone starts. I don't know which voters value more but it's never seemed like they leaned that hard on advanced stats imo.
Couturier had a better season last year and only came in 6th in Selke voting. I think if it got it this year it'd be more because of being a top defensive player over an extended time period rather than being clearly the best defensive player this season.
Wouldn't be surprised to see either of them win it though.