Confirmed with Link: WPG acquiring Nino Niederreiter from NASH for a 24 2nd

[Whileee]

So .... just the law of averages catching up?

Why such long stretches of an entire team being affected in the same way?

It's called regression to the mean, and it's a well-known statistical phenomenon for random processes. NHL scoring and saving demonstrate a lot of randomness.

If the Jets weren't getting as many shots or expected goals, you could claim that it was a dip in performance. In the second half of the season the Jets were top-10 in the NHL in 5v5 scoring chance share. Top 10 in high danger shot attempt share.

The Jets shooting percentage and save percentages:

Before Jan. 15:

Sh% 11.3 (4th)
Save% 91.6 (3rd)

Jan 15 to season end...

Sh% 8.5 (32nd)
Save% 90.4 (11th)

I think the most reasonable assessment is that the Jets were "hot" in the first half in scoring, and very "cold" in the second half. It happens.

Smart GMs and coaches (like Brind'Amour) understand these trends and don't get carried away with bad assessments.

 

[GJF]

Nino lost in the WC quarter finals to Germany yesterday. Therefore, Gawanke > Niederreiter and I'm sure @UFO is devestated

Only Jet left in the tournament is Samberg. They're playing Germany and the mighty Gawanke in the semi finals tomorrow.

 

[UFO]

Nino lost in the WC quarter finals to Germany yesterday. Therefore, Gawanke > Niederreiter and I'm sure @UFO is devestated

Only Jet left in the tournament is Samberg. They're playing Germany and the mighty Gawanke in the semi finals tomorrow.

Congrats to Germany. You were the better team and deserved to win. Switzerland, as usual, with a fine choke job.

Whenever it matters, Switzerland turns into the Toronto Maple Leafs. Hopefully Fischer (Swiss coach) is going to get sacked. He might be a good guy, but he is absolutely no competitor, tactically inept and comes up with excuses all the time.

Overall, Nino has been one of Switzerland's best performer in my eyes. Lots of passion, energy, scored some goals and also hit a few people.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's called regression to the mean, and it's a well-known statistical phenomenon for random processes. NHL scoring and saving demonstrate a lot of randomness.

If the Jets weren't getting as many shots or expected goals, you could claim that it was a dip in performance. In the second half of the season the Jets were top-10 in the NHL in 5v5 scoring chance share. Top 10 in high danger shot attempt share.

The Jets shooting percentage and save percentages:

Before Jan. 15:

Sh% 11.3 (4th)
Save% 91.6 (3rd)

Jan 15 to season end...

Sh% 8.5 (32nd)
Save% 90.4 (11th)

I think the most reasonable assessment is that the Jets were "hot" in the first half in scoring, and very "cold" in the second half. It happens.

Smart GMs and coaches (like Brind'Amour) understand these trends and don't get carried away with bad assessments.

I'm not disputing the facts. But I think there has to be more behind it than simply regression to the mean. The 2 blocks of games are too large. Randomness needs to be more random, like good game/bad game. Not good half season/bad half season. And there were too many players going the same way together at the same time. It should be 1 player good, 1 player bad at any one time. Not whole team good/whole team bad at the same times.

 

[Whileee]

I'm not disputing the facts. But I think there has to be more behind it than simply regression to the mean. The 2 blocks of games are too large. Randomness needs to be more random, like good game/bad game. Not good half season/bad half season. And there were too many players going the same way together at the same time. It should be 1 player good, 1 player bad at any one time. Not whole team good/whole team bad at the same times.

Not necessarily. First, goaltending / saving depends on one main player, and a back-up.

On the scoring side, it was really mainly 3 key forwards that had a major shooting slump from January through March. Dubois, Connor and Ehlers all dropped their shooting % from around 17% to around 7-8%. Scheifele dropped from around 23% to a more usual 17%.

So, 3 of the Jets top 4 scorers went cold and the Jets offense dried up. So, maybe they stopped working as hard?

Strangely, the narrative is that Scheifele started dogging it during that stretch, while he was the only forward that kept scoring with some regularity. Connor, Dubois and Ehlers were the ones that stopped scoring during that stretch, with uncharacteristically low shooting %.

Here are some individual stats (all situations) for January 15 through March 31, when the Jets were in their deepest slump.

 

[surixon]

Not necessarily. First, goaltending / saving depends on one main player, and a back-up.

On the scoring side, it was really mainly 3 key forwards that had a major shooting slump from January through March. Dubois, Connor and Ehlers all dropped their shooting % from around 17% to around 7-8%. Scheifele dropped from around 23% to a more usual 17%.

So, 3 of the Jets top 4 scorers went cold and the Jets offense dried up. So, maybe they stopped working as hard?

Strangely, the narrative is that Scheifele started dogging it during that stretch, while he was the only forward that kept scoring with some regularity. Connor, Dubois and Ehlers were the ones that stopped scoring during that stretch, with uncharacteristically low shooting %.

Here are some individual stats (all situations) for January 15 through March 31, when the Jets were in their deepest slump.
View attachment 712908

I think it also highlights an issue with the teams roster construction most notably in how we build our bottom 6. Historically we've wanted defensive role players that historically score at low rates. So when a good portion or the top 6 goes cold we don't have any scoring redundancy built in.

It's why I think Chevy really needs to get a couple more good middle 6 players that can bring some secondary scoring ro mitigate against cold spells in the top 6.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not necessarily. First, goaltending / saving depends on one main player, and a back-up.

On the scoring side, it was really mainly 3 key forwards that had a major shooting slump from January through March. Dubois, Connor and Ehlers all dropped their shooting % from around 17% to around 7-8%. Scheifele dropped from around 23% to a more usual 17%.

So, 3 of the Jets top 4 scorers went cold and the Jets offense dried up. So, maybe they stopped working as hard?

Strangely, the narrative is that Scheifele started dogging it during that stretch, while he was the only forward that kept scoring with some regularity. Connor, Dubois and Ehlers were the ones that stopped scoring during that stretch, with uncharacteristically low shooting %.

Here are some individual stats (all situations) for January 15 through March 31, when the Jets were in their deepest slump.
View attachment 712908

Goaltending is a separate issue. The difference between Vezina Helle and sub-Pavelecian is about 1 save per game so wild swings are normal. The difference between a .910 goalie and a .920 goalie sounds like a lot, 10 pts. It goes from very bad to very good - but it is 1%, 1 sv per 100 shots. No wonder goalies are voodoo.

The biggest change I saw between good Jets and bad Jets was the PP. It went from dynamic to static, in high danger areas to perimeter, with a corresponding drop in sh%.

Goaltending dropping off at the same time also lead to Jets playing catchup a lot. That changes the look of a team. I know it affected my perception watching them. All the things my eye-test highlights become a lot more common and more prominent when they fall behind early.

 

[Whileee]

Goaltending is a separate issue. The difference between Vezina Helle and sub-Pavelecian is about 1 save per game so wild swings are normal. The difference between a .910 goalie and a .920 goalie sounds like a lot, 10 pts. It goes from very bad to very good - but it is 1%, 1 sv per 100 shots. No wonder goalies are voodoo.

The biggest change I saw between good Jets and bad Jets was the PP. It went from dynamic to static, in high danger areas to perimeter, with a corresponding drop in sh%.

Goaltending dropping off at the same time also lead to Jets playing catchup a lot. That changes the look of a team. I know it affected my perception watching them. All the things my eye-test highlights become a lot more common and more prominent when they fall behind early.

Why do we think the stagnant PP is due to lazy players, and not poor coaching strategies that didn't adapt? The PP went flat and unimaginative when Lauer was sidelined and Bowness took over that part.

 

[gojetsgo]

Why do we think the stagnant PP is due to lazy players, and not poor coaching strategies that didn't adapt? The PP went flat and unimaginative when Lauer was sidelined and Bowness took over that part.

just reminds me of this:

 

[macmaroon]

Nino lost in the WC quarter finals to Germany yesterday. Therefore, Gawanke > Niederreiter and I'm sure @UFO is devestated

Only Jet left in the tournament is Samberg. They're playing Germany and the mighty Gawanke in the semi finals tomorrow.

Did I see a Nino mention...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why do we think the stagnant PP is due to lazy players, and not poor coaching strategies that didn't adapt? The PP went flat and unimaginative when Lauer was sidelined and Bowness took over that part.

Did I ever say it was laziness?

I don't think it was. I think almost all of the players work hard almost all of the time. They usually have another gear they switch to at PO time but I don't think it is possible for them to have that level of intensity all of the time. Some people might think it looks lazy when it is just dumb.

 

[JetsUK]

I think it also highlights an issue with the teams roster construction most notably in how we build our bottom 6. Historically we've wanted defensive role players that historically score at low rates. So when a good portion or the top 6 goes cold we don't have any scoring redundancy built in.

It's why I think Chevy really needs to get a couple more good middle 6 players that can bring some secondary scoring ro mitigate against cold spells in the top 6.

Absolutely -- but this has been an issue for so long, and so many pundits and insiders have commented on the Jets' preference for a Top 6/ bottom 6 that I am beginning to suspect that if the Jets could ice a bottom 6 composed entirely of Adam Lowry, they would. Role players, PKers, cycling, big bodies -- scoring strictly optional.

In fact, I suspect they might prefer that all-Adam bottom 6 over the historically excellent mix they had in 2017-18, with prime Matty P, Lowry, Copp, Armia, Tanev and even Little chipping in. Those guys could do anything.

Our new-era bottom 6? Not so much.

 

[LowLefty]

Absolutely -- but this has been an issue for so long, and so many pundits and insiders have commented on the Jets' preference for a Top 6/ bottom 6 that I am beginning to suspect that if the Jets could ice a bottom 6 composed entirely of Adam Lowry, they would. Role players, PKers, cycling, big bodies -- scoring strictly optional.

In fact, I suspect they might prefer that all-Adam bottom 6 over the historically excellent mix they had in 2017-18, with prime Matty P, Lowry, Copp, Armia, Tanev and even Little chipping in. Those guys could do anything.

Our new-era bottom 6? Not so much.

It looks like they construct based on the bottom / top 6 model you guys are discussing -
But we really haven't had the talent to do anything differently - IMO.
Our forward drafting hasn't been great - at least in the current window. And if we can't draft guys that can slide in and progress through the lineup, we are in trouble.

 

[Atoyot]

It looks like they construct based on the bottom / top 6 model you guys are discussing -
But we really haven't had the talent to do anything differently - IMO.
Our forward drafting hasn't been great - at least in the current window. And if we can't draft guys that can slide in and progress through the lineup, we are in trouble.

We've had the talent to at least attempt it. Easy to say we don't have the talent when we've never even given it a shot.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Could have ran

55 Dubois perfetti Lowry as centers but we didn't have much depth.

Jets are strange. Their forwards were solid but the d was crap. Fix the D a bit, forwards fall off a cliff. Strange.

Jets definitely need more depth scoring tho and they need to get more ninos names mcgroarty types... guys who work hard every shift. I'll take a team of Adam lowrys on the bottom tho cuz Adam works hard every shift. Morgan Barron Is another.

Just need to eliminate Blake Peter Luke and Mark probably for room reasons

And one of nate or Neil needs to go. And probably with only 1 year left, Dillon and or Demelo also

 

[LowLefty]

We've had the talent to at least attempt it. Easy to say we don't have the talent when we've never even given it a shot.

OK - so what do you propose?

 

[buggs]

Did I see a Nino mention...


View attachment 713004

Nope. You imagined it.

Also: these are not the droids you're looking for. Move along. Move along.

 

[surixon]

OK - so what do you propose?

Back in the day could have run:

Wheeler Scheife Laine
Conner Little Ehlers
Perrault Copp Roslovic
Lewis Lowry Appelton

But you are correct that we don't have the depth to do so now. If they run it back they will need a couple of good middle 6 forwards and a top 6 replacement for PLD to create a strong top 12.

 

[LowLefty]

Back in the day could have run:

Wheeler Scheife Laine
Conner Little Ehlers
Perrault Copp Roslovic
Lewis Lowry Appelton

But you are correct that we don't have the depth to do so now. If they run it back they will need a couple of good middle 6 forwards and a top 6 replacement for PLD to create a strong top 12.

Yes, back in the day we could have run that - then again, I didn't think we had a real issue with top 6 vs bottom back then.
I thought we were talking about now (or recent) -

 

[DRW204]

nino niederreiter is a good player

 

[10Ducky10]

I thought I'd give Nino's thread a bump.
2024 2nd rounder is a good deal.

What do we do?
Extend him?
Trade him?

I'd sign him for two years at 4m.
Lots of vet savvy that is probably a 2nd-3rd tweener.

We'd get a 2nd + if we were out of it and dealt him at the TD if he were unsigned.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I thought I'd give Nino's thread a bump.
2024 2nd rounder is a good deal.

What do we do?
Extend him?
Trade him?

I'd sign him for two years at 4m.
Lots of vet savvy that is probably a 2nd-3rd tweener.

We'd get a 2nd + if we were out of it and dealt him at the TD if he were unsigned.

2x4 was his last contract. Probably about right again.

 

[macmaroon]

I thought I'd give Nino's thread a bump.
2024 2nd rounder is a good deal.

What do we do?
Extend him?
Trade him?

I'd sign him for two years at 4m.
Lots of vet savvy that is probably a 2nd-3rd tweener.

We'd get a 2nd + if we were out of it and dealt him at the TD if he were unsigned.

2x4 was his last contract. Probably about right again.

And he wants to be here. Hopefully, he hasn't changed his mind...

 

[surixon]

2x4 was his last contract. Probably about right again.

Yup, I'd be fine with that.

 

[DRW204]

personally think he fits nicely with scheifele on the top-line. adds a physical/size/defensive presence but just as important can still put the puck in the net - at a surprisingly high rate. he isn't just some random forecheck guy that cannot do much else (ie like scheifele playing with appleton, maenalanen or kuhlman last year). imo to mitigate some of scheife's deficiencies - nino's tOI is better spent playing next to him high on the depth chart.

he did elevate that 3rd line next to Lowry too.... really, can't go wrong with nino anywhere. one of the computer-boys/spreadsheet gang's most heralded players.

on per TOI-basis Nino hasn't really been far off KC's goal-scoring at 5v5-hockey the past couple seasons. all the while, his respective team performing way better in net-offense when he's on the ice compared to KC.