Would you rather have Chicago's 2022 or 2023 1st rounder?

[Doggy]

...Getting your player a year earlier is an underrated part of the equation.

The CBJ have added three first rounders to the roster this year, are getting Marchenko next year and have added plenty of young developing players in the very recent past plus have our own first rounder in this upcoming draft. Some would argue spreading out the youth movement by getting an extra 1st rounder in 2023 rather than 2022 might be to our advantage.

 

[koteka]

From what I've read, Mitchkov is definitely a top two talent, but he's under contract in Russia until 2026. Do you think that scares teams off at the top of the draft?

Slightly, but he is an unreal talent. So you draft him in 2023 and don’t have him for 2 or 3 seasons. Most of the draftees will be in lower leagues or college during that same time. Maybe he falls a spot or two, but I doubt it unless someone is unreal next year.

The biggest issue for the CBJ is that Michkov is a wing. Let’s say Chicago hits the lottery this year so their traded pick moves to 2023 and we draft BPA at 12 (not a center) and maybe bring in Giroux for three years. So our centers are Giroux, Sillinger, Jenner, Roslovic, Kuraly, and maybe Texier and maybe Johnson. Still not good in the long run. Do you take Michkov over Adam Fantilli next year if we are drafting number 2? Fantilli is a very highly rated 6’3” 190 pound center who is going to Michigan next year.

 

[Hello Johnny]

The CBJ have added three first rounders to the roster this year, are getting Marchenko next year and have added plenty of young developing players in the very recent past plus have our own first rounder in this upcoming draft. Some would argue spreading out the youth movement by getting an extra 1st rounder in 2023 rather than 2022 might be to our advantage.

This is my view, although upon reflection I would add the caveat that if we can add Nemec or Jiricek then it might be better to have the 22 pick since we don't have any elite defensive prospects (though I really like Ceulemans).

If they're both gone by Chicago's pick I'd be bummed. I'm not in love with many of the forwards in the top 10 this year, but would absolutely target Marco Kasper for our pick. Seems like the type of player we need in our system – intelligent power forward who skates well and is a true center.

 

[EspenK]

I voted fro this year but wouldn't be disappointed if we received next year's. My thinking is Chicago's pick will be 5 which should give us a pretty decent pool to select from. If I thought Chicago's pick was going to be 8th or 9th I'd rather take my chances on next year.

 

[LJ7]

This is my view, although upon reflection I would add the caveat that if we can add Nemec or Jiricek then it might be better to have the 22 pick since we don't have any elite defensive prospects (though I really like Ceulemans).

I agree and personally I add Cooley and Savoie to that list. Obviously Wright is out of the question but I would be very happy with any of Jiricek, Nemec, Savoie, or Cooley. Slafkovsky would be fine but I'm not as high on him as I am the other four.

Savoie is really strong and I think he sees the ice really well. I don't see his size as an issue because he's already so strong at his age. Cooley probably won't fall to us but who knows come draft day. The two defensemen are obvious choices for us as well, and I'm high on both despite how different their skillsets are from one another.

If I'm given the choice between Slafkovsky (and anyone else besides that top 5) and the 2023 pick I'll take the 2023 pick. I'm very happy Chicago's pick keeps falling, and I think we'll all be quite pleased on lottery day and draft day.

 

[Jackets Bob]

It would be a very Blue Jacket thing for Chicago to get Shane Wright this draft and be lights out next year. I'm really good with getting Nemic this draft.

 

[Hello Johnny]

I agree and personally I add Cooley and Savoie to that list. Obviously Wright is out of the question but I would be very happy with any of Jiricek, Nemec, Savoie, or Cooley. Slafkovsky would be fine but I'm not as high on him as I am the other four.

Savoie is really strong and I think he sees the ice really well. I don't see his size as an issue because he's already so strong at his age. Cooley probably won't fall to us but who knows come draft day. The two defensemen are obvious choices for us as well, and I'm high on both despite how different their skillsets are from one another.

If I'm given the choice between Slafkovsky (and anyone else besides that top 5) and the 2023 pick I'll take the 2023 pick. I'm very happy Chicago's pick keeps falling, and I think we'll all be quite pleased on lottery day and draft day.

Yeah, I like the three forwards you've mentioned but I'm not in love with them. I think I like Savoie the most personally. Not sure if I would trade down or what, just hoping it doesn't come to that.

Dream scenario would be for us to win the lottery and take Wright, with one of Nemec or Jiricek being available at Chicago's pick.

 

[majormajor]

The CBJ have added three first rounders to the roster this year, are getting Marchenko next year and have added plenty of young developing players in the very recent past plus have our own first rounder in this upcoming draft. Some would argue spreading out the youth movement by getting an extra 1st rounder in 2023 rather than 2022 might be to our advantage.

Consider that you can push an asset a year further out via trade, and teams will always pay you for that privilege of getting talent sooner. We shouldn't be doing the opposite.

We're also talking about a very high pick that should net an upgrade on all but perhaps 0 or 1 or 2 of our young players. We should move someone lower down if there was a problem fitting everyone in.

 

[majormajor]

Slightly, but he is an unreal talent. So you draft him in 2023 and don’t have him for 2 or 3 seasons. Most of the draftees will be in lower leagues or college during that same time. Maybe he falls a spot or two, but I doubt it unless someone is unreal next year.

The biggest issue for the CBJ is that Michkov is a wing. Let’s say Chicago hits the lottery this year so their traded pick moves to 2023 and we draft BPA at 12 (not a center) and maybe bring in Giroux for three years. So our centers are Giroux, Sillinger, Jenner, Roslovic, Kuraly, and maybe Texier and maybe Johnson. Still not good in the long run. Do you take Michkov over Adam Fantilli next year if we are drafting number 2? Fantilli is a very highly rated 6’3” 190 pound center who is going to Michigan next year.

I think with Michkov level talent I wouldn't even pay attention to position. Michkov next to one of our mediocre centers is still better than Fantilli and our top wing.

 

[koteka]

Consider that you can push an asset a year further out via trade, and teams will always pay you for that privilege of getting talent sooner.

Typically, yes. But the perceived talent in the 2023 draft class is so much higher than the perceived talent of the 2022, this might be the exception to the rule. At least for early first round picks.

 

[majormajor]

Typically, yes. But the perceived talent in the 2023 draft class is so much higher than the perceived talent of the 2022, this might be the exception to the rule. At least for early first round picks.

Right, I was already factoring that in. I was just mentioning the "time preference" part of the discounting equation because no one else had mentioned it.

 

[Xoggz22]

Yeah, I like the three forwards you've mentioned but I'm not in love with them. I think I like Savoie the most personally. Not sure if I would trade down or what, just hoping it doesn't come to that.

Dream scenario would be for us to win the lottery and take Wright, with one of Nemec or Jiricek being available at Chicago's pick.

Problem is, we can't get 1OA where our pick currently sits. Best we can do is 2OA. That won't get you Wright. Slim slim chance but not likely.

 

[Xoggz22]

Typically, yes. But the perceived talent in the 2023 draft class is so much higher than the perceived talent of the 2022, this might be the exception to the rule. At least for early first round picks.

I don't disagree with the perception but 2022 was also considered a bang up class, even last year. Some still feel it's better than 2021 and we appear to have grabbed 3 top end pieces in the 1st round last year. I like this year's class and while I want another lottery ticket next year, I do love 5 and 12 two years in a row

 

[georgiabluejacket]

I have no doubt the Hawks are going to by ABYSMAL next year(next few actually). Like them & AZ competing for the bottom bad. MAF won them numerous games this year(1-0 when they should've lost 5-1) which obviously he can't next year. Kane and Toews will both be gone in the off season, leaving Debrinkcat only because they need someone for the fans to want to go see.
They will have a significant amount of $ this coming off season, but who would want to join the train wreck that has encapsulated that team over the last year?

 

[georgiabluejacket]

I think with Michkov level talent I wouldn't even pay attention to position. Michkov next to one of our mediocre centers is still better than Fantilli and our top wing.

Think you are vastly underrating Fantilli. Believe it was on the Jeff Marek show the other day that they were discussing that Fantilli is not only up there with Bedard/Michkov, but some already have him above Michkov. The only reason you don't hear more about him is because everyone just focuses on Bedard. The U-18 could be a very interesting for him.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

2023, for sure.

1) This team has never had a generational talent. Not Nash. Not Panarin (though he was close). Not mid-2000s Federov. I’m talking Crosby, Malkin, Matthews, Ovechkin, McDavid type level. Give me a chance at that.

2) The 2023 class generally seems stronger across the board (2023 #1 is better than 2022 #1, 2023 #10 is better than 2022 #10, etc.)

And I think Chicago will be bad next year. They have no one in the immediate pipeline besides Reichel (who hasn’t shown much in his limited NHL time, only one point in 11 games played). They have no one who’s been a significant roster player the past year or two that you’d expect major growth from besides possibly Dach. Wright or whomever they draft at #1 or #2 likely isn’t good enough at 18 to significantly move the needle. They have no goaltending. Little money to play with (unless they move Toews - who’s probably negative value - or Kane - which would just hurt them next year anyway). I just can’t see them being much better next year, and there’s a decent chance they’re worse.

 

[majormajor]

Think you are vastly underrating Fantilli. Believe it was on the Jeff Marek show the other day that they were discussing that Fantilli is not only up there with Bedard/Michkov, but some already have him above Michkov. The only reason you don't hear more about him is because everyone just focuses on Bedard. The U-18 could be a very interesting for him.

I might be underrating him, though it's hard for me to imagine anyone catching Michkov. I tried searching for Fantilli on the Jeff Marek show and nothing came up, let me know if you recall where it was.

 

[domi28]

I'm taking the sure thing know what spot it is pick this year versus the mystery pick that is likely to be high but not guaranteed next year. I completely understand next year's draft looks to be loaded compared to this year but I think that also means there's going to be some really awful teams next year deliberately tanking. Chicago might be worse next season points wise but it's hard to picture them finishing lower in the standings. Plus there's always a small chance their pick next season isn't even a lottery pick due to the weak division they play in.

 

[Hello Johnny]

I'm taking the sure thing know what spot it is pick this year versus the mystery pick that is likely to be high but not guaranteed next year. I completely understand next year's draft looks to be loaded compared to this year but I think that also means there's going to be some really awful teams next year deliberately tanking. Chicago might be worse next season points wise but it's hard to picture them finishing lower in the standings. Plus there's always a small chance their pick next season isn't even a lottery pick due to the weak division they play in.

Is the Central division weak? IMO Chicago is clearly the second worst team in that division now and in the future.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

Chicago draft lottery slot is now locked in at #6. To me, with it now being outside the top 5, it’s clear the ideal would be for them to get the #2 overall pick and bump the pick we get from them to 2023.

 

[EspenK]

Wright, Cooley,Savoie,Slafkovsky, Nemec, Jiricek (no order implied). One of those for sure or next year's #1. Either way I don't see us losing. Plus when Jackets win the lottery we get 2 of these.

 

[georgiabluejacket]

I tried searching for Fantilli on the Jeff Marek show and nothing came up, let me know if you recall where it was.

I think it was the April 19th "Are there too many "bad teams" in the NHL?" segment. Was Marek and "guest" discussing the next 2 drafts and the guest, I believe Jim Gordon, was talking about how the "scouts" love Fantilli and the reason you don't hear more about him is because of the Bedard love fest. He went on to say that the '23 draft will be Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov in that order.

I hope it's that podcast. I listen to so many podcasts coming and going that they all kind of morph into a long hockey radio show. Marek, Friedman, Cohn, Kaplan, Kypreos, Portzline, & McElligott just need a 6 hour daily podcast to save me some time.

 

[georgiabluejacket]

Just out of curiosity, if the Jackets win the lottery & get the #2, would you guys want them to stand pat or maybe try & trade up for #1?

Say AZ gets #1, do we say "Hey, here's a couple later picks(say '23 3rd/'22 4th round) for a swap. Or do we just say screw it & take Cooley/Slafkovsky/Nemec?

 

[EspenK]

Just out of curiosity, if the Jackets win the lottery & get the #2, would you guys want them to stand pat or maybe try & trade up for #1?

Say AZ gets #1, do we say "Hey, here's a couple later picks(say '23 3rd/'22 4th round) for a swap. Or do we just say screw it & take Cooley/Slafkovsky/Nemec?

I doubt that would be enough for AZ to switch.I'd probably stand pat. There doesn't seem to be that much of a gap between Wright and the rest of the contenders. At 2 I'd add Jiricek to the potentials. Then I'm not sure who to take. Probably between Cooley & Jiricek but Slafkovsky brings something the Jackets don't have. Would be a tough choice.

 

[Xoggz22]

Just out of curiosity, if the Jackets win the lottery & get the #2, would you guys want them to stand pat or maybe try & trade up for #1?

Say AZ gets #1, do we say "Hey, here's a couple later picks(say '23 3rd/'22 4th round) for a swap. Or do we just say screw it & take Cooley/Slafkovsky/Nemec?

Stand pat. Take the pick at #2 and then see what offers you get for Chicago's pick at #7. No value in trade up. Wright may be great but he's not elite, nor generational and the top group of 6 or so could easily be viewed as the best players in the draft. I wouldn't waste the assets.