Sportsnet Would the Maple Leafs have a better chance against Boston or Tampa?

[Fenway]

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There is a whole flock of people who read that headline and can’t even believe how funny they think they are, rushing to the comments to peck out witticisms like “It doesn’t matter it’s the Leafs.” But this article isn’t for those people.

At this point the Leafs will almost certainly be Round 1 underdogs -- it’s true. -- whether it’s versus Tampa Bay or Boston. And given Toronto's history, it would seem the outcome of that series would be a foregone conclusion. But sports are only a sure thing until they aren’t -- until the Chicago Cubs win the World Series (or both the White and Red Sox before them), or the Philadelphia Eagles snap a 57-year drought, or the New York Rangers win in 1994, or whatever the long-but-then-broken sporting drought of your choice happens to be. The uncle-at-the-family-cookout comedians may not like it, but there’s always a chance.

The Leafs are currently second in the Atlantic Division, though it’s basically a three-way tie with Tampa and Boston right now. All three teams are within a point of each other, with the Leafs' winning percentage at .675, Tampa’s at .667, and the Bruins at .664.

The division, she’s tight.

Because of that, the Leafs are mostly likely to end up in the two or three slot, with a hotly contested divisional matchup. They could always fall into a wild card spot and get Florida or Carolina, but the odds of that still aren’t most likely.

In fact, we know the odds, thanks to Micah Blake McCurdy and HockeyViz, who factor in remaining schedules among a host of other inputs. Here are the Leafs' most likely Round 1 opponents by percentage:

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So there you have it: Toronto's most likely Round 1 opponents are Boston at 31 per cent, and Tampa Bay at 29 per cent.

And guess what? According to a poll I threw on Twitter last night, that is – someone bafflingly, I thought – the way Leafs fans want it.

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Click to read more...

 

[McGarnagle]

Until someone actually beats Tampa in a 7 game series, they will be favorites and everyone wants wants avoid them.

Would you rather shoot on Andrei Vasilevskiy or Jeremy Swayman for 7 games? Bruins Bruins are tough, but the Bolts are the Bolts. Absolutely no fault to Leaf fans for preferring us to them.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Until someone actually beats Tampa in a 7 game series, they will be favorites and everyone wants wants avoid them.

Would you rather shoot on Andrei Vasilevskiy or Jeremy Swayman for 7 games? Bruins Bruins are tough, but the Bolts are the Bolts. Absolutely no fault to Leaf fans for preferring us to them.

Yeah, wanting Vasy over Swayman would be a bizarre thought process.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

They weren’t even able to beat the lowly Habs for their first playoffs series win in decades.

Pretenders…

They would be underdogs against both teams.

 

[jgatie]

Laughs fans are the very definition of over confidence in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Humility should be taught starting in the cradle up there.

 

[The Laukomotive]

FWIW I would rather have the Bruins play against Carolina because the Metro path is less hard (Pens are pretty good and Shesterkin is my Hart winner) than the Atlantic division.

But if I were a Leafs fan I would rather see Toronto be a clear underdog against Florida/Carolina/Tampa than being the favorite against a Washington or having fans and media acting overconfident against the Bruins for the 3rd time in 5 years. After the past 4 1st round exit one would expect them to have learned something.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

FWIW I would rather have the Bruins play against Carolina because the Metro path is less hard (Pens are pretty good and Shesterkin is my Hart winner) than the Atlantic division.

But if I were a Leafs fan I would rather see Toronto be a clear underdog against Florida/Carolina/Tampa than being the favorite against a Washington or having fans and media acting overconfident against the Bruins for the 3rd time in 5 years. After the past 4 1st round exit one would expect them to have learned something.

Toronto's goaltending is their clear Achilles heel. If they get save
percentages of just .910 the probability of them beating Boston increase a lot. They have improved their D with Gio and watch
Holl Tuesday night I was pretty surprised how good he looked.
If Muzzin comes back healthy, they have a very solid D Corp.
Muzzin-Gio-Rielly is a good LD and there isn't a Jake Gardiner
amongst Lybushkin, Holl and Lijigren.

 

[caz16]

The Leafs fans I work with, since I am an hour away from Toronto there are a lot, were so wistful when we landed Lindholm. He is a game changer for the Bruins and we are already seeing it with just two measly games under his belt. Nothing lasts forever but I like our chances again this season if we meet up with the Leafs.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Until someone actually beats Tampa in a 7 game series, they will be favorites and everyone wants wants avoid them.

Would you rather shoot on Andrei Vasilevskiy or Jeremy Swayman for 7 games? Bruins Bruins are tough, but the Bolts are the Bolts. Absolutely no fault to Leaf fans for preferring us to them.

Spot on. The Bruins are in better form than Tampa, they're fresher and they have more to play for. But Tampa are the champs, they still have an excellent albeit slightly regressed roster, and they still have Vasilevskiy. The remain a team that's best avoided if at all possible, whereas the Bruins still have it all to prove and have shown in the last two playoffs that exposing defensive frailties and smothering their top line is the way to take them down, so there is a template on how to beat them even if we anticipate that those issues have now been rectified. Plus when it comes to Leafs-Bruins, Toronto are going to defeat us in a playoff series eventually. That's just how sport goes and much as we all hope it won't be this year, Leafs fans will of course hold on to the belief that the odds will finally tilt in their favor.

As @KillerMillerTime said, the Leafs' biggest issue is in net, and really it all comes down to Campbell. He starts playing again the way he was before Christmas, they're a dangerous team. Otherwise they're very vulnerable. So neither we nor the folks in Toronto will know exactly how the Leafs are shaping up for at least another 2-3 weeks.

 

[KrejciMVP]

bring on the leafs