Speculation: Would Morgan Rielly be the #1 pick this year?

[Renegade]

I think Ekblad will be a better defence man. But if we look back to the 2012 draft, I'd only take Ryan Murray or Griffin Reinhart over Rielly. And if I compare Rielly to those in the 2014 draft, I'd only take Ekblad over Rielly.

 

[indigobuffalo]

yes and no...Would Rielly be considered the best defenseman in the draft?...Ekblad is assumed to be the best D-man if he's going 1-2 overall.

I also wonder where he would be rated overall.

For some reason a big factor in D-men going 1st OA is how NHL-ready they are, which I've never understood...

Victor Hedman was 2nd OA because of how NHL-ready he was, despite evidence his ceiling wasn't as high as other prospects, for example.

So part of Ekblad's appeal is that he can join the NHL roster sooner, which may be a big deal if you like rushing prospects to the NHL in a trial by fire system, but I've never seen evidence to support this as a good model for development.

Rielly fell to 5th OA because he tore his ACL and missed significant time rehabbing in his draft year. Similarly, Galchenyuk was in the same boat, though his injury occurred later in the year once he'd already raised a lot of eyebrows.

Without injuries to both those players, it is highly probable that AG and MR would've been higher than where they went.

So if we are looking at Morgan Rielly as a draft eligible prospect who just missed almost the entire season rehabbing a pretty serious knee injury that has a lot of impact on his speed, which is a major attribute, if it doesn't come back 100%, then I think Rielly would be 5th through 10th, or possibly lower.

If we're looking at Morgan Rielly now, then it's pretty obvious he would belong, at the very least, in the top 3. Since even the 1st OA has a risk element, I would bet a lot of GMs would take a guy they KNEW was a sure bet over a POTENTIALLY better MAYBE.

So maybe that answers the question...

 

[indigobuffalo]

I think people really forget how seemingly big a risk Burke took drafting Rielly. Thankfully he was bang on, this time.

 

[Al14]

I think people really forget how seemingly big a risk Burke took drafting Rielly. Thankfully he was bang on, this time.

Is Reilly fully developed? Do we really know yet if Burke was bang on? I think we really need to see a couple of more seasons out of Reilly to know one way or the other.

How about Tyler Myers as an example.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

I see Ekblad becoming a similar player to Victor Hedman of the Lightning.

Hedman is being severely underrated here. He's noticeably taller at 6'6", but offensively wise, I can't see Ekblad rivaling him. I think Tyler Myers is a better comparison. Rielly, by the way, is going to out-produce Ekblad and I don't see elite defensive upside either.

We'll see, I suppose.

 

[Super Mega]

Hedman is being severely underrated here. He's noticeably taller at 6'6", but offensively wise, I can't see Ekblad rivaling him. I think Tyler Myers is a better comparison. Rielly, by the way, is going to out-produce Ekblad and I don't see elite defensive upside either.

We'll see, I suppose.

Hedman is really special, I feel like he is on his way to being a top 5 "complete" type of defenseman. I like every aspect of his game, just needs time.

Ekblad is more like Phaneuf with IQ/passing game, Myers is a good comparable too, its Ekblads size and massive shot that are his signature. I see his ceiling around where Hedman is currently at, hard to say how he will develop but he seems like a sure bet to at least be a top4 D in the future but definitely not a surefire Top 2.

Rielly has the upside and has much stronger chance of cracking top pairing, he drips elite even if his production didn't blow the doors off. Rielly has much greater risk though.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

Hedman is really special, I feel like he is on his way to being a top 5 "complete" type of defenseman. I like every aspect of his game, just needs time.

Ekblad is more like Phaneuf with IQ/passing game, Myers is a good comparable too, its Ekblads size and massive shot that are his signature. I see his ceiling around where Hedman is currently at, hard to say how he will develop but he seems like a sure bet to at least be a top4 D in the future but definitely not a surefire Top 2.

Rielly has the upside and has much stronger chance of cracking top pairing, he drips elite even if his production didn't blow the doors off. Rielly has much greater risk though.

Good post.

Hedman was drafted as an offensive player but spent his first years with Tampa a bit held back to develop his defensive game. Now when he start to look comfortable defending (not elite yet) he has been let loose a bit more offensively and his numbers look a lot better (13 goals and 55 points this season). He has also added a bit more grit in recent years, something that was a knock on his game previously. I do agree that he could develop in to a top 5 complete defenseman with time.

Is really Ekblads hockey IQ that flawed? I thought he was a pretty smart player even do most of his scouting reports seem to highlight other aspect of his game (leadership, size, reach, skating, passing etc).

 

[StatsNightHero]

Yes. Weber and Pronger are terrible comparisons. If you are drafting Ekblad expecting that type of player, you will be disappointed.

I would say something similar to Jay Bouwmeester or Victor Hedman. Big. Smart. Can go unnoticed on the ice (in a good way).

He was granted exceptional player status, and brought into the OHL underage, so he has skill, but isn't flashy.

Source; I live in Barrie.

I agree with this to some degree, but I don't believe his skating is at the same level as JB or even VH. But as you mentioned, he doesn't play like Pronger and Weber at all. Rarely finishes the oppositions offensive players with the body on the boards and especially outfront of the net. Prefers to use his stick (which he is quite effective at) but it would be nice to see him play more physically and end plays. But given his stature and skill set there is no reason he can't continue to add that to his repertoire.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Do you mean if Rielly could go back into the draft and get selected again right now? Or is this being done with a hypothetical time machine where we go bring back the 2012 Rielly and insert him into the 2014 draft?

Nevermind... the question is silly.

 

[-DeMo-]

For some reason a big factor in D-men going 1st OA is how NHL-ready they are, which I've never understood...

Victor Hedman was 2nd OA because of how NHL-ready he was, despite evidence his ceiling wasn't as high as other prospects, for example.

So part of Ekblad's appeal is that he can join the NHL roster sooner, which may be a big deal if you like rushing prospects to the NHL in a trial by fire system, but I've never seen evidence to support this as a good model for development.

Rielly fell to 5th OA because he tore his ACL and missed significant time rehabbing in his draft year. Similarly, Galchenyuk was in the same boat, though his injury occurred later in the year once he'd already raised a lot of eyebrows.

Without injuries to both those players, it is highly probable that AG and MR would've been higher than where they went.

So if we are looking at Morgan Rielly as a draft eligible prospect who just missed almost the entire season rehabbing a pretty serious knee injury that has a lot of impact on his speed, which is a major attribute, if it doesn't come back 100%, then I think Rielly would be 5th through 10th, or possibly lower.

If we're looking at Morgan Rielly now, then it's pretty obvious he would belong, at the very least, in the top 3. Since even the 1st OA has a risk element, I would bet a lot of GMs would take a guy they KNEW was a sure bet over a POTENTIALLY better MAYBE.

So maybe that answers the question...

I think your mis-remembering things a bit Hedman was scene as a guy with elite franchise potential dmen the year of his draft who selected behind him had a higher potential? Maybe Duchene but that is debatable at best. He rivalled Tavares all year long for the top spot.

As for Rielly/Galchenyuk, Galchenyuk got hurt in the pre-season and only played 2 regular season and 6 playoff games in his draft year. Compared to the 23 games Rielly played. So there was a bigger sample size for Rielly. The Galchenyuk hype started and continued because of his great season as a 17 year old.

 

[Atomos2]

But why isolate Rielly from the rest of his draft class. If Rielly might be the #1 or #2 of this year's crop, then where does one place Murray, Trouba, Galchenyuk, Lindholm, and Yakupov from last year's crop? How desperate are we to feel good about ourselves?

It's the offseason and our team is awful. Give us a break.

 

[Tak7]

I think people really forget how seemingly big a risk Burke took drafting Rielly. Thankfully he was bang on, this time.

Reilly was far less riskier a pick than some of the other names on the board in and around that time.

I remember lots of Leafs fans were furious that we didn't end up going after someone like Filip Forsberg

 

[Commander Clueless]

I think people really forget how seemingly big a risk Burke took drafting Rielly. Thankfully he was bang on, this time.

Far too early to say that.

Rielly's an excellent young player and I really hope he develops how we all hope he will, but it's far from a guarantee.

 

[diceman934]

Is Reilly fully developed? Do we really know yet if Burke was bang on? I think we really need to see a couple of more seasons out of Reilly to know one way or the other.

How about Tyler Myers as an example.

Tyler Myers was simply over rated based on size.....and never was as good as most though. He has a very low hockey IQ and makes poor decisions with the puck. I watch Myers for a whole season up close and never was impressed, slow decisions with the puck and nothing has changed since.

Every thing about Rielly is about his IQ and skating and you can not teach IQ nor can you teach a player to skate like Rielly. If Rielly played for most other teams his ice time would have been higher and his points much higher...we have only seen the tip of the iceberg yet. I watched him play up close for two years and never was not impressed.

 

[Super Mega]

Good post.

Hedman was drafted as an offensive player but spent his first years with Tampa a bit held back to develop his defensive game. Now when he start to look comfortable defending (not elite yet) he has been let loose a bit more offensively and his numbers look a lot better (13 goals and 55 points this season). He has also added a bit more grit in recent years, something that was a knock on his game previously. I do agree that he could develop in to a top 5 complete defenseman with time.

Is really Ekblads hockey IQ that flawed? I thought he was a pretty smart player even do most of his scouting reports seem to highlight other aspect of his game (leadership, size, reach, skating, passing etc).

it was poor wording on my part but I was trying to say he was like Phaneuf with hockey IQ and a passing game. Watching the colts they basically would work down low or sideboards and pitch it to Ekblad who would either take a huge shot from the point or if he had room skate it in to the high slot and pass to the opposite side for goals. Its his passing game that shows his IQ which is definitely up there.

Ekblad is not a great comparable to Hedman outside of size and Ekblad definitely doesnt have Hedmans signature wheels. He doesnt often QB a rush or make those big outlet passes. More of a steady TWD with a beauty shot. Ekblad would pair better with a smaller high skilled PMD where as Hedman can pretty much do it all and pairing is irrelevant.

 

[The Great Gazoo]

But why isolate Rielly from the rest of his draft class. If Rielly might be the #1 or #2 of this year's crop, then where does one place Murray, Trouba, Galchenyuk, Lindholm, and Yakupov from last year's crop? How desperate are we to feel good about ourselves?

I feel pretty good about Rielly without having to participate in a silly discussion like the one this thread is making. Rielly is a good player. Probably the most talented player we've drafted in a very, very long time. And I don't see the point in rating him against anyone.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Hedman is really special, I feel like he is on his way to being a top 5 "complete" type of defenseman. I like every aspect of his game, just needs time.

Ekblad is more like Phaneuf with IQ/passing game, Myers is a good comparable too, its Ekblads size and massive shot that are his signature. I see his ceiling around where Hedman is currently at, hard to say how he will develop but he seems like a sure bet to at least be a top4 D in the future but definitely not a surefire Top 2.

Rielly has the upside and has much stronger chance of cracking top pairing, he drips elite even if his production didn't blow the doors off. Rielly has much greater risk though.

I largely agree with what you say. Ekblad is safer, but Rielly has much higher upside. As for Dion's IQ, I'd say that Ekblad wasn't as proficient as him in terms of playing a simple game. One thing about Phaneuf is that he's not very creative, but plays an effective two-way style. Just read his pre-draft reports. Ekblad, on the other hand, seems to be much more like Myers: physically mature, strong skater, and untapped offensive potential. Moreover, I'd say he's more of a passer/ quarterback, while Dion is a puck rusher. Dion can make simple, effective passes, but that's not how he generates offence unlike, say, Lidstrom or Pronger.

Tyler Myers was simply over rated based on size.....and never was as good as most though. He has a very low hockey IQ and makes poor decisions with the puck. I watch Myers for a whole season up close and never was impressed, slow decisions with the puck and nothing has changed since.

Every thing about Rielly is about his IQ and skating and you can not teach IQ nor can you teach a player to skate like Rielly. If Rielly played for most other teams his ice time would have been higher and his points much higher...we have only seen the tip of the iceberg yet. I watched him play up close for two years and never was not impressed.

Simply put, Rielly thinks the game like Ryan Suter. His defensive game isn't as elite, but like him, he can think ahead of peers with elite decision-making abilities. In addition, similarities in terms of using the body vision, accurate passing ( arguably, elite) and reliable puck rushing ability. Like his elite counterpart, Rielly doesn't have much of a great shot, but that's really not part of his game.

Added Later:

Hedman is going to be elite. He's just 23-years old and developing an all-round game. What makes his special is his ability to move the puck at high speeds. You're talking about a 6'6" defenceman stickhandling his way through traffic, and he's mighty creative to boot. I think he could be a puck rusher version of Chris Pronger, who - if those don't remember - was probably the best passer in NHL history. While it is true that Hedman doesn't play that kind of game, if he can be physical imposing and utilise his aggression, he'll be elite.

 

[Incetardis]

I've seen a lot of Eckblad this year and TBH he's benefited from being completely physically mature at such a young age. He was quite literally a man among boys so its difficult to say exactly how dominant he will be playing against other men. To me he looks to be more of a Zach Bogosian type, not necessarily a top pairing D but a solid 3 or 4. Reilly has huge upside and is still growing so for that reason I'd say he'd be the most valuable D on the board if this was his draft year but not the cut and dry number 1 as it would depend on the needs of the team drafting.

 

[LV*]

Is Reilly fully developed? Do we really know yet if Burke was bang on? I think we really need to see a couple of more seasons out of Reilly to know one way or the other.

How about Tyler Myers as an example.

Lol ok everyone on the leafs sucks

 

[mikebel111*]

Speaking of Ryan Suter, a bit off topic but I Think he might be a good comparison for Finn. I wouldnt call Suter an elite skater but he is good. While Finn is improving but is still an average skater. Both have good shots. Both I wouldnt say are traditional PMD's, but they are still PMD's. They are more to move the puck by passing than rushing it, but they can both carry it well. Also leadership qualities. Both have nice passing games as well.
Another one I think might somewhat fit is a less physical, better leader Phaneuf. I dont know if you guys agree with that one however I find some simlarities between Dion and Finn's games.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Speaking of Ryan Suter, a bit off topic but I Think he might be a good comparison for Finn. I wouldnt call Suter an elite skater but he is good. While Finn is improving but is still an average skater. Both have good shots. Both I wouldnt say are traditional PMD's, but they are still PMD's. They are more to move the puck by passing than rushing it, but they can both carry it well. Also leadership qualities. Both have nice passing games as well.
Another one I think might somewhat fit is a less physical, better leader Phaneuf. I dont know if you guys agree with that one however I find some simlarities between Dion and Finn's games.

I thought of Dan Hamhuis when I saw Matt Finn.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

I thought of Dan Hamhuis when I saw Matt Finn.

I think the same. Suter is more of a defenceman who is a very dominant puck mover and has a strong passing game. Intelligence plays a huge part of that and I think Rielly has that as well. Moreover, his ability to be physical and a bit of mean streak makes do make them quite similar. I would alos say that Rielly ability to think ahead of others is why he could develop an all-round game.

Finn, on the other hand, does resemble Hamhuis. He isn't physical, but can be a damn workhorse and be effective in a shut down role as well. Sounds a lot like Gunnarsson, but I think Finn - like Hamhuis - represents more of an offensive threat

 

[Cor]

Dan Hamhuis is actually a good comparison

 

[Rielly4]

Id rather have Rielly then Ekblad.

To me Riellys skating is better and he is the slightly smarter puck mover.

Rielly is better at transitioning the puck and evading forechecks, as a powerplay specialist, Ekblad might be slightly better because of his shot and they both have good hands and passing ability. Defensively, Ekblad might have a slight edge because of size, but Ekblads not Pietrangelo or Weber.. His defensive game isnt that great.

I take Rielly over Ekblad simply because they can both be that powerplay guy but Rielly is better at transitioning the puck on the breakout and he can join the rush more with his speed.. Also his great skating allows him to evade forecheckers more.

 

[NarcoPolo]

If we had the #1 pick and rielly was in this draft, I'd take him over anyone, after him then Reinhart, Bennett, draisaitl, and ekblad.