Would Matthews’ contract have been worth it if… (read OP)?

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Matthews will be making 13.25M $ for the next 5 years. He is arguably the best goal scorer in the world right now during the RS, but his PO performances leave a lot to be desired.

Let’s say that for the duration of his contract, Matthews averages between 60 to 70 goals per season and is a perennial Hart candidate in the RS (fair expectations for him I’d say).

But, in the PO, the Leafs never make it past the 2nd round and Matthews’ individual performance during those runs is pretty much the same as his prior runs (poor to average).

Then would you think his contract would have been worth it considering this scenario (a likely scenario until he proved us otherwise).

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[MessierII]

I’ve never had a problem with Matthews $ figure it’s just the term. That first deal should have been 8 years. This one definitely should have considering the last one wasn’t.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Matthews will be making 13.25M $ for the next 5 years. He is arguably the best goal scorer in the world right now during the RS, but his PO performances leave a lot to be desired.

Let’s say that for the duration of his contract, Matthews averages between 60 to 70 goals per season and is a perennial Hart candidate in the RS (fair expectations for him I’d say).

But, in the PO, the Leafs never make it past the 2nd round and Matthews’ individual performance during those runs is pretty much the same as his prior runs (poor to average).

Then would you think his contract would have been worth it considering this scenario (a likely scenario until he proved us otherwise).

I wouldn’t say it’s a likely scenario considering basically all elite players eventually have at least one elite run.

I certainly wouldn’t have given him that cap/term given his past performances though

 

[I am Canadian]

Even if the Leafs never make the playoffs ever again the contract is still worth it.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Even if the Leafs never make the playoffs ever again the contract is still worth it.

IMO, GMs make decisions to build teams that will lead to SC glory, rather than just RS glory. If I was GM, my players selections would be based around choosing which guys can perform in the POs and at this point, Matthews just isn’t one of those guys I would choose unless he comes at a discount OR he finally puts his big boy pants on for the POs.

To you point about his contract being worth it even if Leafs suck ass, I would agree with you. If the Leafs were in that position, PO expectations are nil and Matthews can score however many RS goals to his heart content. But, we both know that this is not the expectations for the Leafs right now. If a team is going to spend 13.5M$ for a player that is gonna perform in the POs like a 5-7M$ player, is it really in the best interest for SC glory?

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

I wouldn’t say it’s a likely scenario considering basically all elite players eventually have at least one elite run.

I certainly wouldn’t have given him that cap/term given his past performances though

Well there are elite players that have never really put an out of this world PO performance befitting of their talent levels: Thornton, Dionne, Gartner, Selanne, Kariya, Perry, Tarasenko, Hawerchuk etc.

Of course, Matthews could break out but will it be in the next 5 years or ever?

 

[nbwingsfan]

Well there are elite players that have never really put an out of this world PO performance befitting of their talent levels: Thornton, Dionne, Gartner, Selanne, Kariya, Perry, Tarasenko, Hawerchuk etc.

Of course, Matthews could break out but will it be in the next 5 years or ever?

I never said a “out of this world” just a really good one instead of consistently average/poor.

Thornton had a really good run to the SCF

Tarasenko is laughably below the others listed in talent level

Kariya was injured often and didn’t play on great teams

Perry was also nowhere near Matthews level other than one single season. Has had good playoffs as well.

Dionne is really the only comparable here and that was how many years ago?

 

[bobholly39]

Matthews will be making 13.25M $ for the next 5 years. He is arguably the best goal scorer in the world right now during the RS, but his PO performances leave a lot to be desired.

Let’s say that for the duration of his contract, Matthews averages between 60 to 70 goals per season and is a perennial Hart candidate in the RS (fair expectations for him I’d say).

But, in the PO, the Leafs never make it past the 2nd round and Matthews’ individual performance during those runs is pretty much the same as his prior runs (poor to average).

Then would you think his contract would have been worth it considering this scenario (a likely scenario until he proved us otherwise).

I was going to vote fair, but I actually voted underpaid. But that's kind of on you OP.

If Matthews averages between 60 to 70 goals a season for the next 5 years, it would definitely be the greatest prime/peak in goal-scoring history in the NHL. Above any of Ovechkin/Lemieux/Gretzky or whoever else. I think your numbers are simply too high in your example to vote any other way.

As for his playoff record - I don't necesarily agree that it's been "poor to average" so far. I'd actually say it's been "average to good". The problem is, he's never been "great" in playoffs, and never been "best in league great" either - which is something all other current top players have done (McDavid, Drai, Kuch, Mack, Makar).
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[klefbombs shoulder]

Its fair value. Hes a 50+ goal, defensively responsible centre. And the cap is probably going to increase significantly over the course of the contract.

 

[Voight]

I’ve never had a problem with Matthews $ figure it’s just the term. That first deal should have been 8 years. This one definitely should have considering the last one wasn’t.

The $ figure was always fair. One Eichel signed for $10 million/year, that set the floor for Matthews contract.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Playing in Toronto and failing to play up to par in the playoffs repeatedly will mean he's automatically overpaid no matter how many regular season goals he scores.

Toronto fans have always liked guys who play for the crest, work hard, and step it up in the playoffs way more than players who are talented alone.

In any scenario Matthews is overpaid until he brings it when it counts.

 

[ijuka]

The contract is not for the playoffs, though. The contract is only for the regular season.

The playoffs are slave labor.

 

[Leafidelity]

Matthews is likely the best Leaf player of all time and his contract is the last one on the roster that I have any problem with

Especially while he's pacing 70 goals and playing elite defensively

 

[Subbanned]

Of course it's worth it, this isn't the NBA. Winning is a team game. 60 goal center with 70 goal potential that is strong defensively?? Good lord is the contract worth it lol

 

[SillyRabbit]

Matthews contract is fine.

You pay what you need to in order to lock up a player like that.

 

[Voight]

Matthews contract is fine.

You pay what you need to in order to lock up a player like that.

Seriously ... people on here love to complain about his cap hit but hes one of the best players in the world and you simply do not let those guys go.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Fair.

Playoff success is not valued in Toronto.

 

[Regal]

I don’t know if this is a useful thought experiment. If we’re basing his contract on the Leafs winning and then capping their success in the hypothetical, you could argue that he wouldn’t be worth it at any amount, which is obviously ridiculous.

 

[Neutrinos]

I’ve never had a problem with Matthews $ figure it’s just the term. That first deal should have been 8 years. This one definitely should have considering the last one wasn’t.

I'm guessing the extension he signs when he's 30 will be for 8 years

 

[82Ninety42011]

He sells tickets and of course the goal is the Cup but you still gotta make the playoffs to win it. I'd say fair with the OP criteria applied.

 

[McVespa99]

Matthews will be making 13.25M $ for the next 5 years. He is arguably the best goal scorer in the world right now during the RS, but his PO performances leave a lot to be desired.

Let’s say that for the duration of his contract, Matthews averages between 60 to 70 goals per season and is a perennial Hart candidate in the RS (fair expectations for him I’d say).

But, in the PO, the Leafs never make it past the 2nd round and Matthews’ individual performance during those runs is pretty much the same as his prior runs (poor to average).

Then would you think his contract would have been worth it considering this scenario (a likely scenario until he proved us otherwise).

It will be worth it because the owners will make lots of $ on all the regular season seats.

 

[Guttersniped]

Matthews will be making 13.25M $ for the next 5 years. He is arguably the best goal scorer in the world right now during the RS, but his PO performances leave a lot to be desired.

Let’s say that for the duration of his contract, Matthews averages between 60 to 70 goals per season and is a perennial Hart candidate in the RS (fair expectations for him I’d say).

But, in the PO, the Leafs never make it past the 2nd round and Matthews’ individual performance during those runs is pretty much the same as his prior runs (poor to average).

Then would you think his contract would have been worth it considering this scenario (a likely scenario until he proved us otherwise).

“Let’s say that for the duration of his contract, Matthews averages between 60 to 70 goals per season and is a perennial Hart candidate in the RS (fair expectations for him I’d say).”

You think that’s a fair expectation? Matthews did it 2 out of 3 seasons so you think it’s a fair expectation for him to do it 4 more times?

How often do you think this has been done? Answer: Not a lot and not at all recently.

These are all the players who’ve had multiple 60 goal seasons:


Yeah, we get it, post season success is incredibly important for the player themselves, the fans, their legacy, the teams, their owners, etc.

But it’s ridiculous to have Matthews being the greatest regular season goal scorer in the history of the NHL as your baseline expectation for his future and no biggie if he pulls it off.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

2 time 60 goal scorers dont grow on trees n you have to think eventually he will score more in the playoffs. Maybe this year?

 

[dirtydanglez]

overpaid. always has been since coming off his elc. still a really good player tho

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

You don't have to worry about Matthews in the playoffs, he is clutch and steps it up when his team needs him the most