Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Plus other Draft talk)

Who do the Ducks take at pick 3?

  • Ivan Demidov

    Votes: 28 19.2%
  • Anton Silayev

    Votes: 18 12.3%
  • Artyom Levshunov

    Votes: 73 50.0%
  • Cayden Lindstrom

    Votes: 14 9.6%
  • Sam Dickinson

    Votes: 3 2.1%
  • Zayne Parekh

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Zeev Buium

    Votes: 4 2.7%
  • Carter Yakemchuk

    Votes: 3 2.1%
  • Cole Eiserman

    Votes: 2 1.4%

  • Total voters
    146
  • This poll will close: .

JAHV

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Well it's also about progression right? A guy on a steep upward trajectory over the past 2+ years who's a bit raw, vs. a more polished player who's been on a steady but shallow upward trajectory ... you could watch the first guy for a game and be unimpressed, but if you saw him over the last few years and then watched that same game this year you might be like, "oh my god his game has grown by leaps and bounds" which would change your perception of that performance.

It's gonna be a roll of the dice no matter which way we go, none of these guys are on the Carlsson/Fantilli tier as prospects so there's gonna be flaws/question marks. No sure things (or close to sure things) even at #2 this year. As long as we get a high upside guy who fits what we're trying to do, I'm good with it. I'll only be disappointed if we go with a "safe" low upside pick.
That's fair. When I watch prospects and young players, more than production or results, I'm looking for effort and instincts. Are they working hard at all times? Are they doing they making the right plays and going to the right places; i.e. do they look like they know what they're doing? If those questions are answered positively, that makes me confident that the player is going to get the most of their skill and natural abilities. The level of skill and physical traits provide the floor and ceiling, but the effort and IQ tell you whether the player can get there.

I didn't see an effort issue with Levshunov, but I was very concerned about the hockey sense, both on the macro level (positioning on the ice, passing decisions, awareness of opposing players) and on the micro level (stick positioning when defending, body leverage when in a board battle). Those deficiencies could absolutely be a product of rawness, as you say, and many other scouts have said. They just worry me in a guy who we want to project as a top-pairing defenseman.

If we take him, I'll be excited though. He certainly has the physical tools to be a top pairing RD.
 
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Rybread86

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Part of me thinks they go Helenius. Not really based on anything. I feel like they want more RS forwards.

There was a rumor floating around that Helenius was a favorite of Beekers and could cause the Ducks to trade down so they can gain some assets while still getting their guy later.

Im not sure it makes sense though with who is available at 3. Demidov, Levshunov, Silayev and even Lindstrom I think make more sense.
 
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FiveTacos

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I didn't see an effort issue with Levshunov, but I was very concerned about the hockey sense, both on the macro level (positioning on the ice, passing decisions, awareness of opposing players) and on the micro level (stick positioning when defending, body leverage when in a board battle). Those deficiencies could absolutely be a product of rawness, as you say, and many other scouts have said. They just worry me in a guy who we want to project as a top-pairing defenseman.

That's the hard thing with scouting dmen at that age, even the most NHL-ready ones really aren't NHL ready, they all need more time and development, particularly defensively. Skilled offensive guys can contribute quickly, but I do not ever expect any dman under 23 to do more than be adequate defensively.

The mere fact that we keep finding NHL caliber dmen (even if not Norris level) is a good sign that our scouts seem to know how to distinguish fixable issues from the non-fixable ones. If we go D, I'll trust that they think it's something fixable. If we don't, either we love the forward or we aren't sold on the available dmen.
 

forever1922

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There was a rumor floating around that Helenius was a favorite of Beekers and could cause the Ducks to trade down so they can gain some assets while still getting their guy later.

Im not sure it makes sense though with who is available at 3. Demidov, Levshunov, Silayev and even Lindstrom I think make more sense.
What's the source?

It would not suprise me if he was.

At least one guy in the management now has an eye for NHL projectable forward talent. Helenius, I find, is the most solid option, if a bit boring.
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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That's the hard thing with scouting dmen at that age, even the most NHL-ready ones really aren't NHL ready, they all need more time and development, particularly defensively. Skilled offensive guys can contribute quickly, but I do not ever expect any dman under 23 to do more than be adequate defensively.

The mere fact that we keep finding NHL caliber dmen (even if not Norris level) is a good sign that our scouts seem to know how to distinguish fixable issues from the non-fixable ones. If we go D, I'll trust that they think it's something fixable. If we don't, either we love the forward or we aren't sold on the available dmen.
Yea i think your looking for transferable skill sets, part of the reason i like Levshunov so much is because i think his set will be good defensively in the next lvl

good 4 way mobility, 1 of the strongest players in the draft physically.... he basically already close to where youd want him to be size wise in the nhl (6'2 210)... he wont be pushed around and will likely be doing a lot of the pushing.

He went from Belerus league, to USHL, to college hockey and excelled at every league.... i think there is so much untapped potential with him... and he seems to really pick it up and learn quickly... if you watch his first games at MSU he looked really raw, but as the season went on and his comfort/confidence increased he started looking like a steady force on the back end.

@Hockey Duckie has done some great write ups on him in the draft thread about his offensive/defensive game and how hes done on a team with not a ton of help around him.
 
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Rybread86

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What's the source?

It would not suprise me if he was.

At least one guy in the management now has an eye for NHL projectable forward talent. Helenius, I find, is the most solid option, if a bit boring.

Ill have to try and find it again. I saw it and thought it was interesting but figured if we stayed in the top 3, there was no way we would trade down. If we dropped to 4 or 5, I would have thought it more possible.
 

Dr Johnny Fever

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That's the hard thing with scouting dmen at that age, even the most NHL-ready ones really aren't NHL ready, they all need more time and development, particularly defensively. Skilled offensive guys can contribute quickly, but I do not ever expect any dman under 23 to do more than be adequate defensively.

The mere fact that we keep finding NHL caliber dmen (even if not Norris level) is a good sign that our scouts seem to know how to distinguish fixable issues from the non-fixable ones. If we go D, I'll trust that they think it's something fixable. If we don't, either we love the forward or we aren't sold on the available dmen.
This is why I'd prefer we choose a D. I think we have better track record finding some gems.
 

HanSolo

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I just find it so hard to get hyped for anyone.

Demidov looks talented but 1) he'll be another guy in the lineup who always wants the puck and 2) I'm a bit wary of talented Russian forwards not because of the political stuff but there seems to be one or two in every draft and it's hit or miss whether they manage to adapt to the NHL. In Demidov's case he seems to really like dangling in the middle of traffic and against weaker MHL defenders that's fine. In the NHL he's not gonna get away with that as easily.

Levshunov looks like he'll fit like a glove and there's some big positives in his tool kit but his hockey IQ questions are concerning to me.
 
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tomd

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I had/have concerns about the hockey IQ thing but it can be overblown. Fantilli, for example, had hockey IQ issues...until he didn't. I think any 18 year-old D playing college hockey is going to have a steep learning curve. Buium seems to ooze hockey IQ but that's really his only NHL level attribute. Is that enough? If Levshunov had played junior hockey this past year I suspect he'd be the hands down #2 prospect in the draft. He would have dominated in all three zones and scouts would be raving about him. To his credit, he choose the challenge of college hockey and still did exceptionally well.
 

FiveTacos

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This is why I'd prefer we choose a D. I think we have better track record finding some gems.

OTOH if they have that track record and still don't like any of them enough to pick them ... well if they know a good one when they see one, then by default they also know when there isn't a good one at all.

I also would say that our high pick evaluations of forwards have been fine in recent years, and that's despite two being non consensus (McT and Leo). It's the B tier of forward talent where we seem to struggle, but then again most teams do, that's why any half decent young skill forward immediately draws all sorts of stupid trade proposals on these boards.
 
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Zegs2sendhelp

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I just find it so hard to get hyped for anyone.

Demidov looks talented but 1) he'll be another guy in the lineup who always wants the puck and 2) I'm a bit wary of talented Russian forwards not because of the political stuff but there seems to be one or two in every draft and it's hit or miss whether they manage to adapt to the NHL. In Demidov's case he seems to really like dangling in the middle of traffic and against weaker MHL defenders that's fine. In the NHL he's not gonna get away with that as easily.

Levshunov looks like he'll fit like a glove and there's some big positives in his tool kit but his hockey IQ questions are concerning to me.

Hockey iq is a weird one to me because some times the talent lvl around you and the type of system you play in impacts it.

I think it’s criticized in the same way people questioned Mintyukov…. But I think it’ll be more than fine.

He’s switched leagues and teams each of the last 3 years…. Which meant different living situation, different system and coaches and different talent levels in terms of leagues…. Of course his iq might be questionable at times, it should be given those circumstances…. I think next year at msu, he’s going to be dominant on both ends
 

tomd

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Hockey iq is a weird one to me because some times the talent lvl around you and the type of system you play in impacts it.

I think it’s criticized in the same way people questioned Mintyukov…. But I think it’ll be more than fine.

He’s switched leagues and teams each of the last 3 years…. Which meant different living situation, different system and coaches and different talent levels in terms of leagues…. Of course his iq might be questionable at times, it should be given those circumstances…. I think next year at msu, he’s going to be dominant on both ends
I would say that if Chicago take Demidov then there is a 95% likelihood that the Ducks will take Levshunov. I'm not really worried about that. The drama (and probable disappointment) will begin if Chicago takes Levshunov.
 

91Fedorov

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I had/have concerns about the hockey IQ thing but it can be overblown. Fantilli, for example, had hockey IQ issues...until he didn't. I think any 18 year-old D playing college hockey is going to have a steep learning curve. Buium seems to ooze hockey IQ but that's really his only NHL level attribute. Is that enough? If Levshunov had played junior hockey this past year I suspect he'd be the hands down #2 prospect in the draft. He would have dominated in all three zones and scouts would be raving about him. To his credit, he choose the challenge of college hockey and still did exceptionally well.
Wasn't it also floating around that Mintyukov had hockey IQ questions because of his decision making and trying to do too much with the puck?

I agree it can get overblown.
 
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Gliff

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The IQ criticism with Levshunov are so overblown. They are because he has a lot of turnovers on the breakout. But multiple scouts have said it was 100% a system issue and not an issue with him. His whole team has bad breakout numbers from the high risk style they do. He has the best numbers on his team out of all the defensemen.

Very similar to Mintyukov how he was criticized for the system he played in.
 

Dr Johnny Fever

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I will say until draft day that if Levshunov goes 2OA then Demidov should be the Ducks pick. You don't go for need over the clear BPA when you're picking in the top 5.
I agree with the bolded. I just think that when it comes to evaluating F and D, we do better at evaluating D. If picks 2-10 are such a toss up then BPA is clearly in the eyes of the beholder. And I'm just hoping we don't behold a F.

I don't know who we "should" draft, but if we choose a F I'll be a lot more concerned that we picked the wrong one than if we pick one of the D. And I say that because there appears to be no clear cut consensus after #1. That said, I'm fully aware we can bomb on any given pick so it's going to be a real wild west show at 2-10. Fasten your seatbelt.

If there ever was a year to possibly trade down from the top 5, this could be it. Mind you, I'm not advocating for it but it wouldn't surprise me to see any 2-5 team do it, especially if a lower level team really had the hots for somebody and the drop was short (2-3 spots?).
 

tomd

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One wonders if Buium and Levshunov had switched teams what their respective numbers and draft rankings would be.

I agree with the bolded. I just think that when it comes to evaluating F and D, we do better at evaluating D. If picks 2-10 are such a toss up then BPA is clearly in the eyes of the beholder. And I'm just hoping we don't behold a F.

I don't know who we "should" draft, but if we choose a F I'll be a lot more concerned that we picked the wrong one than if we pick one of the D. And I say that because there appears to be no clear cut consensus after #1. That said, I'm fully aware we can bomb on any given pick so it's going to be a real wild west show at 2-10. Fasten your seatbelt.

If there ever was a year to possibly trade down from the top 5, this could be it. Mind you, I'm not advocating for it but it wouldn't surprise me to see any 2-5 team do it, especially if a lower level team really had the hots for somebody and the drop was short (2-3 spots?).
The cure for the bolded is to get better scouts for drafting forwards. As far as the draft rankings this year are concerned, I'm pretty sure that when draft day comes there will be a fairly wide consensus on who the top 3 picks should be...Celebrini, Demidov, and Levshunov. We just won't know what order they'll be taken in after 1OA.
 

DuckDuckGetz

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There was a rumor floating around that Helenius was a favorite of Beekers and could cause the Ducks to trade down so they can gain some assets while still getting their guy later.

Im not sure it makes sense though with who is available at 3. Demidov, Levshunov, Silayev and even Lindstrom I think make more sense.
I would be annoyed if we took Helenius at 3 but I would be fine trading down to get something + him, if that's really who our team wants.
 

Emerald Duck

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Silayev has been described as a unicorn. I think he's more of a magic box pick where you could get a big bodied dman who develops into a player ranging from Zdeno Chara (high) to Tyler Myers (mid) to Dylan McIlrath (low)

I think Levshunov is the better pick if he's available at #3.
 
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Dr Johnny Fever

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One wonders if Buium and Levshunov had switched teams what their respective numbers and draft rankings would be.


The cure for the bolded is to get better scouts for drafting forwards. As far as the draft rankings this year are concerned, I'm pretty sure that when draft day comes there will be a fairly wide consensus on who the top 3 picks should be...Celebrini, Demidov, and Levshunov. We just won't know what order they'll be taken in after 1OA.
No argument on any of that. But let me throw in a wildcard...

GM's are obviously heavily involved in who the team picks in the first round. In the case of PV (and BM as well), he comes from a scouting background and has made it clear he still likes being heavily involved in having "eyes on" some of the top prospects during the year. When it comes to this pick I think it will be heavily influenced by those things that PV thinks make for a good pick. Maybe that jives with what the rest of the scouts think or maybe it skews a little differently? :oops:

Ahhh, fun time, fun times!
 
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Hockey Duckie

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Hockey iq is a weird one to me because some times the talent lvl around you and the type of system you play in impacts it.

I think it’s criticized in the same way people questioned Mintyukov…. But I think it’ll be more than fine.

He’s switched leagues and teams each of the last 3 years…. Which meant different living situation, different system and coaches and different talent levels in terms of leagues…. Of course his iq might be questionable at times, it should be given those circumstances…. I think next year at msu, he’s going to be dominant on both ends

Lev was dominant on both end with MSU this year, though. You mean he'll be able to take it to another level next season.

Lev, USHL and NCAA stats.png


The USHL has player ages from 16 - 20 (born before Dec 1). With the Gamblers, Lev finished 6th in scoring with 42 points (13g + 29a) and had the team worst - 15 rating. The high scorer had 49 points and was 21 years old when the USHL season ended. The high +/- rating was +11.

It's established that Lev's defense at the USHL level wasn't great, but his offense was for a 17 year old as he finished 1st overall in USHL U18, d-man scoring overall.

At MSU, Lev finished 2nd in scoring by 1 point (actually lead the team in scoring prior to the playoffs) and finished first in +/- with +27, seven points better than the next player. The NCAA is a far tougher league than the USHL, but you got a freshman leading his team in offense and defense.

Lev has made a gargantuan leap in defensive play between two seasons in NA ice. Yet, fans see scouting of his 2nd game in the NCAA and call Lev a bust. They don't realize Lev's starting point was being terrible defensively in the USHL and finished this year tops in +/- on his NCAA team in his rookie season.

That rapid jump in improvement is why some scouting media have Lev projected in the top-3.

=========

We can compare Lev's progression with Zeev's progression.

Zeev, USHL and NCAA stats.png


Zeev is an amazing, engineered product under the guidance of the US NTDP with loads of talent before going to college.

Zeev ranks first in rookie NCAA scoring U19 and Lev is second.

Let's look at their team make-up.

Zeev (Denver)
Zeev, Denver stats 2023-24.png


That's a lot of drafted NHL prospects, but also there are nine players with a +20 or higher rating for Denver.

Lev (MSU)
Lev, MSU team stat 2023-24.png


There are only five drafted prospects on MSU and only two players with a +20 or higher rating.

At least with Lev, we know he can carry a weaker team while still being a raw prospect. I'm giddy to see how much more he can improve next year in the NCAA!
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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Lev was dominant on both end with MSU this year, though. You mean he'll be able to take it to another level next season.

View attachment 867972

The USHL has player ages from 16 - 20 (born before Dec 1). With the Gamblers, Lev finished 6th in scoring with 42 points (13g + 29a) and had the team worst - 15 rating. The high scorer had 49 points and was 21 years old when the USHL season ended. The high +/- rating was +11.

It's established that Lev's defense at the USHL level wasn't great, but his offense was for a 17 year old as he finished 1st overall in USHL U18, d-man scoring overall.

At MSU, Lev finished 2nd in scoring by 1 point (actually lead the team in scoring prior to the playoffs) and finished first in +/- with +27, seven points better than the next player. The NCAA is a far tougher league than the USHL, but you got a freshman leading his team in offense and defense.

Lev has made a gargantuan leap in defensive play between two seasons in NA ice. Yet, fans see scouting of his 2nd game in the NCAA and call Lev a bust. They don't realize Lev's starting point was being terrible defensively in the USHL and finished this year tops in +/- on his NCAA team in his rookie season.

That rapid jump in improvement is why some scouting media have Lev projected in the top-3.

=========

We can compare Lev's progression with Zeev's progression.

View attachment 867979

Zeev is an amazing, engineered product under the guidance of the US NTDP with loads of talent before going to college.

Zeev ranks first in rookie NCAA scoring U19 and Lev is second.

Let's look at their team make-up.

Zeev (Denver)
View attachment 867982

That's a lot of drafted NHL prospects, but also there are nine players with a +20 or higher rating for Denver.

Lev (MSU)
View attachment 867983

There are only five drafted prospects on MSU and only two players with a +20 or higher rating.

At least with Lev, we know he can carry a weaker team while still being a raw prospect. I'm giddy to see how much more he can improve next year in the NCAA!
100%

It’s not anything against buium(who I do like a lot) I just think levshunovs ceiling is very high
 

Rasp

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Apr 9, 2019
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There was a rumor floating around that Helenius was a favorite of Beekers and could cause the Ducks to trade down so they can gain some assets while still getting their guy later.

Im not sure it makes sense though with who is available at 3. Demidov, Levshunov, Silayev and even Lindstrom I think make more sense.
Sounds like the Zegras rumours
 

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