Speculation: With the third pick in the 2024 NHL draft the Anaheim Ducks select...(Plus other Draft talk)

[duckpuck]

I wonder to what extent the Ducks' inability to scout Demidov and Silayev in person will drive the decision? I recall that one of the factors influencing Carlsson over Fantilli was the in person scouting.

 

[Gliff]

I wonder to what extent the Ducks' inability to scout Demidov and Silayev in person will drive the decision? I recall that one of the factors influencing Carlsson over Fantilli was the in person scouting.

The Ducks do have a Russian scout. He actually is considered one of the all time greats. Michkovs Russian agent referred to him as Russia’s most legendary NHL scout in an interview when he said the Ducks talked to Michkov.

 

[anezthes]

The Ducks do have a Russian scout. He actually is considered one of the all time greats. Michkovs Russian agent referred to him as Russia’s most legendary NHL scout in an interview when he said the Ducks talked to Michkov.

Konstantin Krylov.

"Anaheim seriously considered Matvei Michkov" according to this article:

Matvei Michkov’s agent, Sergei Fedotov, says the Russian forward did not want to be drafted by the Capitals

Matvei Michkov did not even want to be drafted by the Washington Capitals, according to his agent Sergei Fedotov. Fedotov made the…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Underway with our third and final mock draft of the season. Hawks went with Demidov at #2 and after some negotiations trying to acquire Noah Dobson in a package involving #3, I ended up selecting Anton Silayev.

Prepare to be angry if you already would have preferred Levshunov. Vegas had acquired pick #11 from Buffalo and then moved up to #7 to grab Lev.

In the mean time I had Colorado message me about Gibson, ended up moving him for Manson and Georgiev in a straight two for one. They save 1.5M in cap and should see more stability in net if Gibby can rebound.

Then immediately had NJ reach out about Georgiev and flipped him for pick #75 and RW prospect Leeni Hameenaho, a second rounder from a year ago who had a great D+1 in SM Liiga (Silf type upside?)

Started contacting teams about mid first round picks to get into that top 15 tier and ended up moving the EDM 1st (#24) and Boston 2nd (#59) to move up to #15. Came down to a choice between Greentree and MBN, I went with RW Brandsegg-Nygard who plays that heavier pro style game already.

Would have been content to stay at #35 where some interesting RHD would be available, but Jiricek started to drop and there's reason to believe his upside is a tier above the late first/early second round guys. Sent pick 35+the acquired pick 75 to COL for #25 to grab Jiricek.

1) SJ - Celebrini
2) CHI - Demidov
3) ANA* - Silayev
4) CLB - Catton
5) MTL - Lindstrom
6) UT? - Buium
7) VGK - Levshunov
8) SEA - Dickinson
9) CGY - Yakemchuk
10) NJ - Helenius
11) OTT - Parekh
12) PHI - Iginla
13) MIN - Sennecke
14) SJ - Eiserman
15) ANA* - Brandsegg - Nygard
16) STL - Greentree
17) WHS - Basha
18) NYI - Letourneau
19) OTT - Boisvert
20) CHI - Freij
21) CGY - Elick (pick acquired from LA as part of a deal for Markstrom)
22) NSH - Chernysov
23) NYI - Solberg
24) TB - Hage
25) ANA* - Jiricek
26) OTT - Beaudoin

That's where we're at so far

27) MTL - Connelly
28) CAR - Badinka
29) CGY - Ritchie
30) PHI - Luchanko
31) DAL - Parascak
32) NYR - Hutson

33) SJ - Kiviharju
34) CHI - Artamonov
35) COL - Stiga
36) PHI - Hemming
37) WPG - Emery
38) UTA - Pettersson
39) SJ - Sahlin Wellenius
40) SEA - Mews
41) LA - Howe
42) SJ - Brunicke
43) BUF - Miettinen
44) PIT - Misa
45) MIN - Surin
46) PIT - Masse
47) DET - Bednarik
48) STL - Shuravin
49) UTA - Marques
50) NYI - Vanacker
51) ANA* - Jecho

Started to see another really intriguing RW prospect dropping and traded our 3rd (68) + 4th (100) to Philly for pick # 51.

Adam Jecho - 2024 NHL Draft Prospect Profile - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

In this article, we take a look at Adam Jecho and what he could possibly bring to an NHL team at the upcoming 2024 NHL Entry Draft.

thehockeywriters.com

66th overall selected RD Spencer Gill

2024 NHL Draft notebook: Gill's improved defense has scouts on notice | NHL.com

Rimouski defenseman also among top 15 in scoring at position in QMJHL

www.nhl.com

79th overall selected G Mikhail Yegorov

‘Draft Class’ podcast: Yegorov a goalie to watch at 2024 NHL Draft | NHL.com

Jensen of Central Scouting discusses other prospects on latest episode

www.nhl.com

 

[LeBrun is a Clown]

66th overall selected RD Spencer Gill

2024 NHL Draft notebook: Gill's improved defense has scouts on notice | NHL.com

Rimouski defenseman also among top 15 in scoring at position in QMJHL

www.nhl.com

79th overall selected G Mikhail Yegorov

‘Draft Class’ podcast: Yegorov a goalie to watch at 2024 NHL Draft | NHL.com

Jensen of Central Scouting discusses other prospects on latest episode

www.nhl.com

I could see Gill surprising people if he goes earlier with Anaheims 2nd 1st

 

[FiveTacos]

Assuming that the SOMEONE ELSE'S list is put together by scouts who have actually seen these guys play, it makes perfect sense to me. That would be the CSB and McKenzie lists.

Well at the end of the day, the consensus list is not gospel ... I've always maintained that if you actually drafted by consensus every year, over the long haul you will be an average drafting team.

That's almost by definition, as it is a consensus of scouts who range from good to bad, so what you end up on a consensus ranking with is a median scout's evaluation. The good scout's "alternate" eval gets washed out by polling scouts who aren't as good.

Let's say hypothetically the consensus is right about BPA 75% of the time. But that still leaves 1 out of every 4 times where you're better off ignoring the consensus. Even if out of that 25% you're a good drafting team and go your own way on 2 of 5 picks, you end up with a 10% edge over the median drafting team, although ironically the median team will typically receive higher post-draft day grades since they didn't "reach".

Now, if you consistently go non consensus and whiff, then your scouts just suck.

 

[tomd]

Well at the end of the day, the consensus list is not gospel ... I've always maintained that if you actually drafted by consensus every year, over the long haul you will be an average drafting team.

That's almost by definition, as it is a consensus of scouts who range from good to bad, so what you end up on a consensus ranking with is a median scout's evaluation. The good scout's "alternate" eval gets washed out by polling scouts who aren't as good.

Let's say hypothetically the consensus is right about BPA 75% of the time. But that still leaves 1 out of every 4 times where you're better off ignoring the consensus. Even if out of that 25% you're a good drafting team and go your own way on 2 of 5 picks, you end up with a 10% edge over the median drafting team, although ironically the median team will typically receive higher post-draft day grades since they didn't "reach".

Now, if you consistently go non consensus and whiff, then your scouts just suck.

Agreed. I thought (perhaps incorrectly) that he was referring to us fans using someone else's lists. 99.9% of us are in no position to put a list together that is based on actual observations.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

McKenzie and CSB were higher on McTavish in 2021, the Ducks picked McTavish.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

How the top 2024 NHL Draft prospects are performing at the IIHF World Championship

It’s not a big pool, but it features some notable names looking to impress.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

 

[Hinterland]

Agreed. I thought (perhaps incorrectly) that he was referring to us fans using someone else's lists. 99.9% of us are in no position to put a list together that is based on actual observations.

You think McKenzie is though?
As we just discussed, McKenzie is a journalist who doesn't even try to evaluate the prospects. His goal is to predict the outcome of the NHL draft and I'm not sure his polls include enough scouts to have extensive viewings of all top players. Most scouts don't watch all top players and are instead tasked with following a few of them more closely.

Since they're obviously connected to fellow scouts and their own front office they tend to have a pretty good idea of how popular prospects are...especially with their own team. That doesn't mean that those polls provide McKenzie with enough information to evaluate all of these prospects. Which again he also doesn't even wanna do.

So McKenzie's list isn't really based on observations either. It's based on popularity of prospects with scouts and their NHL teams...that is influenced by lots of other factors and actual observations being only one of them.

I respect McKenzie a lot for what he does but if you're looking for lists based on observations I think there are better options than McKenzie's.

 

[tomd]

You think McKenzie is though?
As we just discussed, McKenzie is a journalist that doesn't even try to evaluate the prospects. His goal is to predict the outcome of the NHL draft and I'm not sure his polls include enough scouts to have extensive viewings of all top players. Most scouts don't watch all top players and are instead tasked with following a few of them more closely.

Since they're obviously connected to fellow scouts and their own front office they tend to have a pretty good idea of how popular prospects are...especially with their own team. That doesn't mean that those polls provide McKenzie with enough information to evaluate all of these prospects. Which again he also doesn't even wanna do.

So McKenzie's list isn't really based on observations either. It's based on popularity of prospects with scouts and their NHL teams...that is influenced by lots of other factors and actual observations being only one of them.

I respect McKenzie a lot for what he does but if you're looking for lists based on observations I think there are better options than McKenzie's.

What others do you recommend (that aren’t paywalled) and why?

 

[Gliff]

66th overall selected RD Spencer Gill

2024 NHL Draft notebook: Gill's improved defense has scouts on notice | NHL.com

Rimouski defenseman also among top 15 in scoring at position in QMJHL

www.nhl.com

79th overall selected G Mikhail Yegorov

‘Draft Class’ podcast: Yegorov a goalie to watch at 2024 NHL Draft | NHL.com

Jensen of Central Scouting discusses other prospects on latest episode

www.nhl.com

I would be shocked if the Ducks take a goalie this year. Especially since it is such a down year for goalies.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I would be shocked if the Ducks take a goalie this year. Especially since it is such a down year for goalies.

I had no specific plans on selecting a goalie, but Yegorov may be the top goalie prospect in this draft and has very intriguing long term potential. The value and upside seemed too good to pass up

 

[Hinterland]

What others do you recommend (that aren’t paywalled) and why?

Well, I'm not an expert when it comes to draft lists...I, right or wrong, tend to have my own opinion on most prospects based on both own viewings and other bits of information I gather here and there.

However, lists I think are based on lots of viewings are the ones from McKeens and especially Central Scouting.

There's also a consolidated list which is based on all major lists so obviously lots of viewings going into this.

Personally I like both Sportsnet lists as well because I believe that both Bukala and Cosentino do watch lots of junior hockey themselves and they're very well connected, too.

Would be interesting to see some stats regarding which lists are best at actually evaluating prospects. We know McKenzie's list is best at predicting the draft but it may not necessarily be the best when it comes to identifying gems or busts.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

McKenzie and CSB were higher on McTavish in 2021, the Ducks picked McTavish.

I think the scouting community had to do an about face on McTavish because CSB and EP were hot to trot on McTavish. EP's lead scout, Mitch Brown, would rank McTavish #1, but the consensus with the EP group held him at #5. Apparently, the media were darlings to Mac as it neared the draft.

McTavish
Scouting Media, 2021	4-Jun​	23-Jul (Draft day)​	Diff
Consolidated Ranking	14​	8​	6​
Elite Prospects	5​	5​	0​
FC Hockey	15​	10​	5​
Neutral Zone	21​	9​	12​
McKeen's Hockey	16​	7​	9​
NHL Central Scouting (NA)	2​	2​	0​
Sportsnet's	9​	8​	1​
Recruit Scouting	17​	9​	8​
Dobber Prospects	29​	11​	18​
Draft Prospects	14​	9​	5​
Smaht Scouting	32​	13​	19​
The Puck Authority	17​	11​	6​
TSN/McKenzie	11​	4 -Tied with Eklund​	7​

Nine media scouting, listed above, had McTavish in the top-10. All of them had Mac in the top-13.

With McKenzie, technically one can say McTavish is potentially 5th, since McKenzie doesn't have any input to split the tie with Eklund.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I had no specific plans on selecting a goalie, but Yegorov may be the top goalie prospect in this draft and has very intriguing long term potential. The value and upside seemed too good to pass up

From the article you shared:

Yegorov (6-foot-4, 179 pounds) was 8-25-3 with a 3.86 goals-against average, .892 save percentage and one shutout in 43 regular-season games with Omaha of the United States Hockey League.​

That doesn't scream, "Pick me!" at 79th overall.

To add context, 6'2 Lukas Dostal's D+0 in Czechia U20 stat was 26-13-0, 0.925 Sv%, 2.53 GAA, and one shutout. Dostal was selected 85th overall in the 2018 draft.

As @Gliff stated, it's a down year for netminders.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

From the article you shared:

Yegorov (6-foot-4, 179 pounds) was 8-25-3 with a 3.86 goals-against average, .892 save percentage and one shutout in 43 regular-season games with Omaha of the United States Hockey League.​

That doesn't scream, "Pick me!" at 79th overall.

To add context, 6'2 Lukas Dostal's D+0 in Czechia U20 stat was 26-13-0, 0.925 Sv%, 2.53 GAA, and one shutout. Dostal was selected 85th overall in the 2018 draft.

As @Gliff stated, it's a down year for netminders.

Top ranked CSB goalie. They aren't ranking 17/18 YO goalies just based on their numbers, or it would be a much easier job. Its about potential, also from that same article:

"He didn't play much at the start of the year but became the starter and played a lot throughout the second half of the season," Jensen said. "He has a huge upside just the way he plays the game; he's very smart and his technical game is sound. For a 6-foot-4 goalie, he moves well and has great structure in his game. If you draft him, work with him and in 4-to-6 years watch this kid.

"I just saw a huge upside with him and it was actually an easy choice for me to put him at No. 1 in the final rankings."

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Top ranked CSB goalie. They aren't ranking 17/18 YO goalies just based on their numbers, or it would be a much easier job. Its about potential, also from that same article:

"He didn't play much at the start of the year but became the starter and played a lot throughout the second half of the season," Jensen said. "He has a huge upside just the way he plays the game; he's very smart and his technical game is sound. For a 6-foot-4 goalie, he moves well and has great structure in his game. If you draft him, work with him and in 4-to-6 years watch this kid.

"I just saw a huge upside with him and it was actually an easy choice for me to put him at No. 1 in the final rankings."

Yeah, if you want a long term project of 4 to 6 years on a goalie. But to do that at pick 76 is a waste. Picking the best of the worst isn't something to write home about. This is why I shared Dostal's numbers as a higher standard. It's a down year for netminders. We have a superfluous amount in the system already, including 6'6 Clara and a potential gem in Suchanek, who went completely undrafted.

 

[tomd]

I know the draft can't come soon enough when there is arguing over a 3rd round pick in a mock draft done by HF posters.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Yeah, if you want a long term project of 4 to 6 years on a goalie. But to do that at pick 76 is a waste. Picking the best of the worst isn't something to write home about. This is why I shared Dostal's numbers as a higher standard. It's a down year for netminders. We have a superfluous amount in the system already, including 6'6 Clara and a potential gem in Suchanek, who went completely undrafted.

Any goalie drafted should be expected to be a 4-6 year project. Any player drafted third round for that matter.

I think you are far overrating your ability to write off prospects based entirely off stats. The scouting community really likes the player for a reason

 

[FiveTacos]

From the article you shared:

Yegorov (6-foot-4, 179 pounds) was 8-25-3 with a 3.86 goals-against average, .892 save percentage and one shutout in 43 regular-season games with Omaha of the United States Hockey League.​

That doesn't scream, "Pick me!" at 79th overall.

To add context, 6'2 Lukas Dostal's D+0 in Czechia U20 stat was 26-13-0, 0.925 Sv%, 2.53 GAA, and one shutout. Dostal was selected 85th overall in the 2018 draft.

As @Gliff stated, it's a down year for netminders.

I see no need to pick a goalie this year, given our depth, but that said goalie numbers for draftees means very little without knowing what league/team they're playing on and if they're being constantly hung out to dry. Ever seen Patrick Roy's junior stats?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I see no need to pick a goalie this year, given our depth, but that said goalie numbers for draftees means very little without knowing what league/team they're playing on and if they're being constantly hung out to dry. Ever seen Patrick Roy's junior stats?

We have a strong goalie pipeline but also nothing set in stone either. Dostal is definitely an NHL goalie moving forward but there is still a range of outcomes there. Suchanek shows well in the AHL at a young age but his NHL upside remains in question until he proves otherwise. Clang will need a bounceback second season in NA. Clara is a very intriguing prospect who could still flop entirely because he's a teenage prospect and that's how that works.

Point being, zero reason to specifically target a goalie as a need, but I also have no problem taking one if they are seen as BPA. Any goalie taken in this draft is (at least) two seasons from even being in the AHL picture and things change. Lots of picks and therefore darts to be thrown.

 

[Hinterland]

We have a strong goalie pipeline but also nothing set in stone either. Dostal is definitely an NHL goalie moving forward but there is still a range of outcomes there. Suchanek shows well in the AHL at a young age but his NHL upside remains in question until he proves otherwise. Clang will need a bounceback second season in NA. Clara is a very intriguing prospect who could still flop entirely because he's a teenage prospect and that's how that works.

Point being, zero reason to specifically target a goalie as a need, but I also have no problem taking one if they are seen as BPA. Any goalie taken in this draft is (at least) two seasons from even being in the AHL picture and things change. Lots of picks and therefore darts to be thrown.

Yeah. No reason to draft a goalie early in this year's draft but there are definitely some interesting options for the later rounds. Goalies are mostly voodoo anyway so it wouldn't hurt to have an extra lottery ticket.

Some of the interesting goalies available are actually overagers so they're not necessarily two years away from the AHL. Jan Spunar for example. He's definitely pro ready but could go down the Europe route as well.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Any goalie drafted should be expected to be a 4-6 year project. Any player drafted third round for that matter.

I think you are far overrating your ability to write off prospects based entirely off stats. The scouting community really likes the player for a reason

Go ahead and rationalize why picking a goalie in the 3rd round from the USHL with not shining numbers is an amazeballs achievement. Not only that, but you apparently lack context as to what's already in our pipeline.

Dostal: 23 years old, in NHL
*Suchanek: just turned 21 this past April 30th, in AHL. UDFA (signed to a 3-year ELC)
Clang: 22 years old, in AHL (1-year left on ELC)
Clara: 19 years old, in HockeyAllsvenkan this season; in SHL next season (not signed)
Buteyets: 21 years old, in VHL this year; AHL or ECHL next season (2-year ELC)
Alexander: 21 years old, in ECHL (1 year left on ELC)

We picked up a goalie prospect before the season ended in Suchanek, who has already proven to be very good at the ECHL and AHL level.

The scouting community loves him so much that he's projected to go in the third round by you? If the community loved a prospect so much, then wouldn't that goalie be selected high in the first round? You're run into the cognitive dissonance chasm.

Shit. I'm not the only person saying this year's netminding group is down. Maybe you should swallow your paper thin pride before you go making everyone more dumb.

 

[KelVarnsen]

Damn this gets old.