Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Meeting madness II: Meetings may not be as mad as they appear.

[Cor]

.260/.334/.441, 21 HRs, 27 2Bs, 1 3B, 72 RBIs, 74 Runs, 2 SBs. 130 games/573 PAs, maybe he won't reach that mark but the offensive rates are fairly appropriate.

They are projecting him for a decline?

Odd. .260 is really low for Tulo's career average and trend.

But overall, it's not horrible, but low for me though

 

[Eyedea]

They are projecting him for a decline?

Odd. .260 is really low for Tulo's career average and trend.

But overall, it's not horrible, but low for me though

His average outside of Coors is .274/.347/.462.

 

[TF97]

His average outside of Coors is .274/.347/.462.

He has spent nearly all of his career in the NL West. Which is home to some of the most pitcher friendly parks. So I expect something slightly above his career numbers outside of Coors this season.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

He has spent nearly all of his career in the NL West. Which is home to some of the most pitcher friendly parks. So I expect something slightly above his career numbers outside of Coors this season.

At the end of the day it averages out LA/SD/SF are pitcher parks, Arizona/Colorado are hitter ballparks. So 80 home games in Colorado and 9 on the road in Arizona, compared to 25-27 in those pitcher parks.

 

[Eyedea]

He has spent nearly all of his career in the NL West. Which is home to some of the most pitcher friendly parks. So I expect something slightly above his career numbers outside of Coors this season.

His road splits are fairly comparable to his .257/.347/.457 at Chase Field. It's a fairly small sample to be working with but I don't expect him to put something absurd up either like his 2014 season. 110-120 wRC+ should be a fair guestimate. Going higher is expecting his contact rates to regress back to his peak years.

 

[TF97]

At the end of the day it averages out LA/SD/SF are pitcher parks, Arizona/Colorado are hitter ballparks. So 80 home games in Colorado and 9 on the road in Arizona, compared to 25-27 in those pitcher parks.

That batting line was from outside Coors. So it would be the lone hitters park (Chase Field) against the three pitchers parks in Petco, AT&T, and Dodger Stadium.

 

[Discoverer]

"yanks are old" is dumb analysis, and the biggest reason why they are underrated every year.

As Eyedea said, it's more about injury history/concerns than it is about age. We all have legitimate concerns about how whether or not (or how long) Tulo can stay healthy or if hes going to return to his All-Star level production. For the Yankees, they have similar concerns for most of their key offensive players and 4/5 of their starters. If they can keep most of their team healthy all year, they'll probably be fighting for the division. But that's a bigger "if" than it is with most teams.

 

[zeke]

I never said the Yankees are old. I said they have old(er) players that they are relying significantly upon for offensive production. Most of which carry significant risk of injury.

Their rotation is also incredibly solid, but again, other than Severino all of them have experienced arm problems.

i recommend you do a more thorough analysis of the injury history of their competition. you'll be surprised at what you find.

and there's no reason to suspect they'll suffer more health issues this year than in the last couple of years they made the playoffs.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

His road splits are fairly comparable to his .257/.347/.457 at Chase Field. It's a fairly small sample to be working with but I don't expect him to put something absurd up either like his 2014 season. 110-120 wRC+ should be a fair guestimate. Going higher is expecting his contact rates to regress back to his peak years.

His contact rates are still quite elite. Z-contact in 2015 was only 2.5% lower than in 2013 when he had a .400 wOBA. O-contact in 2015 was only 3.7% lower than 2014 when he had a .444 wOBA. Pull percentage has actually gone up.

It should be mentioned that his Z-contact, O-contact and pull % are all higher than the reigning AL MVP. I believe steamer and zips are both producing down case scenarios.

Also, regarding ballpark dependency: Matt Hollidays final three years at Coors saw a difference in home/road slugging of 207, 237, and 98 basis points. Tulo's final three full years at Coors saw differences of -103, 84, and 301. Holliday has gone on to produce similar wOBA and wRC+ numbers despite playing his home games in much more pitcher friendly environments than Rogers Centre.

I believe a year and nine months removed from surgery, combined with the comfort of starting the full year with the franchise will allow him easily the steamer and zips projections.

 

[Eyedea]

His contact rates are still quite elite. Z-contact in 2015 was only 2.5% lower than in 2013 when he had a .400 wOBA. O-contact in 2015 was only 3.7% lower than 2014 when he had a .444 wOBA. Pull percentage has actually gone up.

It should be mentioned that his Z-contact, O-contact and pull % are all higher than the reigning AL MVP. I believe steamer and zips are both producing down case scenarios.

Also, regarding ballpark dependency: Matt Hollidays final three years at Coors saw a difference in home/road slugging of 207, 237, and 98 basis points. Tulo's final three full years at Coors saw differences of -103, 84, and 301. Holliday has gone on to produce similar wOBA and wRC+ numbers despite playing his home games in much more pitcher friendly environments than Rogers Centre.

I believe a year and nine months removed from surgery, combined with the comfort of starting the full year with the franchise will allow him easily the steamer and zips projections.

League Average: 78.9% Contact rate, 9.9% swinging strike rate
Troy Tulowitzki: 79.2%, 9.4%

Prediction systems typically do not predict career years out of peak performers. There is Mike Trout at 9.2 WAR, and then Harper at 6.8.

JD is also not the most contact-driven hitter on the planet. There's a decent amount of swing and miss in his approach, but he provided power and at the very least league average production through each count this past season.

As for Holliday, he has an entirely different approach. His mantra is basically to hit it hard all over the damn field.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports hears the Blue Jays "checked in" on free agent Yovani Gallardo recently.

 

[Blitzkrug]

May be an unwise move. Gallardo is ok, but rarely goes deep into games.

Putting pressure on that bullpen is unadvised.

 

[The Nemesis]

over 1,000.