Winnipeg Jets Training camp: September 23 (mod warning OP)

[surixon]

I don't see Wheels as a play driver - might have been at one time but not now (IMO) -
He's not great coming out of his own end or through the neutral zone - Scheif is usually the guy driving play through the N zone.
He's good in the O zone but needs someone to get them there.

I agree that PLD needs to drive play but I haven't seen it yet.

Dubois was a big driver in Columbus but a lot of that was due to their defensive configuration where Dubois stayed high while someone else picked up the responsibility down low. This allowed him to lead more of the transitions or to atleast be the second forward out of the zone.

For us he's being used in more of a traditional center defensive role so he's down low supporting the defense while Ehlers is the player transitioning the puck. So I think he's not really driving because he's not being tasked with it. I'm curious to see how his game evolves offensively as a player who is now more often then not going to be coming into the offensive zone as F3 then as F1 or F2 as he was in Columbus. He has a big shot so if he can start to find thay layered space as the trailer he might make hey as a triggerman to Ehelers passing.

 

[DRW204]

I don't see Wheels as a play driver - might have been at one time but not now (IMO) -
He's not great coming out of his own end or through the neutral zone - Scheif is usually the guy driving play through the N zone.
He's good in the O zone but needs someone to get them there.

I agree that PLD needs to drive play but I haven't seen it yet.

perhaps you're right. this past season he rated kind of bad. how much of it was directly injury related, who knows. i think he's still a quality playmaker and perhaps can help drive a line as a secondary option.

But no doubt about it, PLD has to be the primary guy there, that's why he was brought in and billed as one of the top young Cs in the NHL. he's getting 6.65M this year and will be up for a big deal, he has to show some semblance of his CBJ play, and even surpass it.

 

[libertarian]

I would have liked to see him given a look in the open top 6 spot in the Scheifele game to give him a taste but Moe will unsurprisingly give the role to a vet.

I wonder if the Jets cap situation is having any bearing on Maurice personnel decisions?

That said I have zero issues with Perfetti playing some, most or all of this season with the Moose.

 

[Whileee]

I wonder if the Jets cap situation is having any baring on Maurice personnel decisions?

That said I have zero issues with Perfetti playing some, most or all of this season with the Moose.

The cap situation will definitely have an influence on roster decisions, particularly at the opening of the season. During the year, it will always factor into various decisions, but I think it will be less of a factor after the initial machinations to maximize Little's LTIR pool.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Conversely, I think individual seasons can be really skewed, especially if they are like the last two.

I see merit in both sides of this issue. Yes, individual seasons can be really skewed. So can aggregates of several seasons. The aggregates have the advantage of including a larger dataset. But they mask trends. That is particularly important when we are discussing players who have passed their peaks. Multiple seasons, seen as individual data points do show trends and can indicate the aggregate values at the same time.

 

[Weezeric]

In case you were looking for a near meaningless stat…

Don’t look now but the Jets are 2nd in the NHL by xG% in the preseason!! We should all be very excited!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm interested if any of the kids remaining get this game tonight or do we dress a full squad again.

If they have been kept in TC, there must still be unanswered questions, no?

Harkins, Ves, Svech and Gus should all play.

 

[Whileee]

I see merit in both sides of this issue. Yes, individual seasons can be really skewed. So can aggregates of several seasons. The aggregates have the advantage of including a larger dataset. But they mask trends. That is particularly important when we are discussing players who have passed their peaks. Multiple seasons, seen as individual data points do show trends and can indicate the aggregate values at the same time.

Sure, but I think context matters, particularly when considering shorter time-frames. As an example, Wheeler had a pretty strong season in 2019/20, but his metrics were bad in 2020/21. Some are interpreting that as a disastrous "trend", when it's really a bad season with some obvious contextual factors (injury, terrible D, COVID year, etc.).

Many (including some analytics types) have basically written off Morrissey for two bad seasons, after a stellar junior and AHL development trajectory and 3 strong NHL seasons. Again, context matters, and I won't be surprised if the strengthening of the D corps results in Morrissey reversing the presumed "trend" with a strong season this year.

I guess the bottom line for me is that it's important to consider the broader context when interpreting the performance metrics, regardless of the sample size.

 

[Whileee]

In case you were looking for a near meaningless stat…

Don’t look now but the Jets are 2nd in the NHL by xG% in the preseason!! We should all be very excited!

I'm not sure it's completely meaningless ... last time the Jets were positive in pre-season xGF% was 2017/18. That was a good team...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't see PLD as a play driver -
I do think we need to see the top line play in front of their new D )) before we start breaking up lines due to "defensive" issues that may no longer be an issue.
As for Ehlers, he can drive play - so can Scheif - if you really want to balance things out, separate the two.

Or, to totally contradict the above plan, throw all the top guys on the top line (as noted in earlier threads) and let their offense drive possession (along with the new D ) to a point where their D is not a factor.
I'm game for giving this a shot - the other 3 lines will hold their own (with the new D) - if nothing else, it will be a blast to watch.

Don't go ballistic on me Mort - just spit ballin'

I like spitballin'. Some interesting thoughts come out.
I think it is necessary for PLD to be, or become a play-driver.
CSW has been bad defensively for years. This didn't just occur when we lost Buff. Wheeler was probably less bad a few years ago but he was never good. The same might be said for Scheifele. Connor plays like he has never heard of defense.

I don't entirely disagree with separating Scheifele and Ehlers to spread out the play drivers, but we also need to spread out shooters and play-makers. KC, S, E puts all of our best goal scorers on the same line. I can't see a scenario where I like those 3 together.

Regardless, I see Copp in the top 6 as being temporary. I fully expect him to be gone next year no matter what else happens. Perfetti will be a better fit with Scheifele and Ehlers then either KC or Copp.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

speaking of wheeler on the 2nd line.

wheeler still rates fine as an offensive play-driver, so i am not sure why individuals are so resistant to him being dropped down a line & then all-of-a-sudden the 2nd line not having a play-driver. the problem is defensively where he's rated poorly in 3 of the past 4 seasons.

this doesn't have this past year included, but his one great defensive showing since 16-17 was primarily on the 2nd line, although at C, and playing with Ehlers (who i think you play less-defense with generally). evidently also the only year away from CSW a majority of the time. but just something to note...

edit: i haven't seen the "play-driving" stats of this year, but he did have an offensive-drop in 19-20 (perhaps due to the move in C) according to this rating. I think generally on offense he rates well though.

View attachment 468921
like you said, PLD has to be the play-driver on the 2nd line. if he's as good as people/analysts/CBJ stats indicate, him being a high-producing & play-driving C shouldn't be a problem. then you add Wheeler and one of Connor/Copp. I think that 2nd line will produce well, meanwhile, our top-line will likely be one of the best league with Scheifele and Ehlers together.

honestly, our wingers probably just need to be average defensively. i don't think ehlers is anything great at actually playing defense, id rate him average, but he generally play less defense when on-ice since he's one of the elite puck movers in the league & so good in transition (basically going from D to O)

Interesting roller-coaster ride for Wheeler's D play. But yes, that does support him being at least somewhat effective defensively (not counting last year with the cracked ribs).

I think there may be a semantics problem, or at least I have a bit of one. Play-maker and play-driver are pretty similar. My definition of them is intuitive rather than specific. A play-driver is more assertive, less passive. He should also be something of a play-maker but not necessarily. A play-driver is more likely to be working to gain possession in the D zone than to be sneaking into the O zone, cheating for offense. Just my gut definition.

Ehlers is good defensively partly just because he tries. But he also uses his speed to backcheck very well. He breaks up opposing rushes before they have a chance to get organized in our D zone. I think that elevates him to above average defensively despite any weaknesses he may have in other aspects of defensive play.

I think Scheif + Ehlers can carry Copp offensively while he helps them defensively. I think PLD and Wheeler can carry Connor defensively while making plays he can finish.

If we could combine Connor and Copp into 1 player, I would gladly carry a plug as the 6th member of our top 6.

 

[Flair Hay]

No Vesalainen in the final preseason game. I think that means he's got the spot and the coaches want another look at these other guys.

Yeah Maurice pretty well said as much in the presser. He likes the fit. Says not sure if its 2 weeks or 2 months he will stick with it before considering changing things up. But made specific reference to letting Ves grow into the role a bit.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

so perfetti not making opening night it seems even with scheifele suspended

I really don't get that.
OK, he is going to the Moose. But it seems like a no-brainer to give him that 1 game.

 

[surixon]

Yeah Maurice pretty well said as much in the presser. He likes the fit. Says not sure if its 2 weeks or 2 months he will stick with it before considering changing things up. But made specific reference to letting Ves grow into the role a bit.

He was inked into that role from the end of last year imo which is why he was given specific instructions over the summer.

Maurice will let things play out with him there to see if he can continue growing into an effective two way winger with size and grit.

 

[surixon]

I really don't get that.
OK, he is going to the Moose. But it seems like a no-brainer to give him that 1 game.

To everyone but the coach it seems. Or maybe Chevy wants to save his 9 games until later in the year.

 

[Flair Hay]

I don't see PLD as a play driver -
I do think we need to see the top line play in front of their new D )) before we start breaking up lines due to "defensive" issues that may no longer be an issue.
As for Ehlers, he can drive play - so can Scheif - if you really want to balance things out, separate the two.

Or, to totally contradict the above plan, throw all the top guys on the top line (as noted in earlier threads) and let their offense drive possession (along with the new D ) to a point where their D is not a factor.
I'm game for giving this a shot - the other 3 lines will hold their own (with the new D) - if nothing else, it will be a blast to watch.

Don't go ballistic on me Mort - just spit ballin'

Yeah I'd be pretty hesitant to be playing Copp more than Connor at 5v5... but I dont totally hate it either

Lots of line combos we will get to see over an 82 game season though. Game 1 is just Game 1.

 

[Heldig]

In case you were looking for a near meaningless stat…

Don’t look now but the Jets are 2nd in the NHL by xG% in the preseason!! We should all be very excited!

And the Arizona Coyotes won the Central Division with a 4 win 1 loss record (17 goals for, 12 against).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sure, but I think context matters, particularly when considering shorter time-frames. As an example, Wheeler had a pretty strong season in 2019/20, but his metrics were bad in 2020/21. Some are interpreting that as a disastrous "trend", when it's really a bad season with some obvious contextual factors (injury, terrible D, COVID year, etc.).

Many (including some analytics types) have basically written off Morrissey for two bad seasons, after a stellar junior and AHL development trajectory and 3 strong NHL seasons. Again, context matters, and I won't be surprised if the strengthening of the D corps results in Morrissey reversing the presumed "trend" with a strong season this year.

I guess the bottom line for me is that it's important to consider the broader context when interpreting the performance metrics, regardless of the sample size.

Of course. That's part of what I said.

Show the 3 (4,5) years, but as 3 (4,5) data points, not 1. You can also show the aggregate at the same time. The 2 are not mutually exclusive.

Neither always catches context. Wheeler's performance last year looked an awful lot like age, but cracked ribs will do that. We need another individual year's results to find out if it was partly age, or not.

 

[LowLefty]

I like spitballin'. Some interesting thoughts come out.
I think it is necessary for PLD to be, or become a play-driver.
CSW has been bad defensively for years. This didn't just occur when we lost Buff. Wheeler was probably less bad a few years ago but he was never good. The same might be said for Scheifele. Connor plays like he has never heard of defense.

I don't entirely disagree with separating Scheifele and Ehlers to spread out the play drivers, but we also need to spread out shooters and play-makers. KC, S, E puts all of our best goal scorers on the same line. I can't see a scenario where I like those 3 together.

Regardless, I see Copp in the top 6 as being temporary. I fully expect him to be gone next year no matter what else happens. Perfetti will be a better fit with Scheifele and Ehlers then either KC or Copp.

Did you ignore all my smiley faces? Here's another one if you did - j/k
Point being - our D (top to bottom) is better now than it has ever been (IMO) - and that will impact our forward play to an extent that we can stop talking about how bad some forwards are at D.
At least I hope it does.

Our top 6 was bad in our end LY - all of them.
The exception that will get called out, is Ehlers - but only because of his possession numbers - not because he was effective defending in our zone.
Being able to carry the puck with speed is such a huge advantage - he can skate out of trouble - I wish they could all do that. Regardless, that's not really defending - that activating offense.

I mention this not because I don't feel we can always be better defensively but more so to reduce the ongoing commentary on how bad some are at D.
What was really bad at D, was our D - and that played a toll on a talented offence. IOW's, it makes them look worse than they are.

Regardless of what this all looked like LY or 3 yrs ago, I look forward to seeing our high powered offense dominate with a really solid D in support.
And hopefully the dialogue changes.

 

[LowLefty]

Yeah I'd be pretty hesitant to be playing Copp more than Connor at 5v5... but I dont totally hate it either

Lots of line combos we will get to see over an 82 game season though. Game 1 is just Game 1.

I totally hate it -
Ehlers can get away with playing with pretty much anybody because he drives play for himself / by himself.
He will do it on his own because he can - and watching him, I get the feeling it likes it that way.

KC can't - but set him up with the right center, and he'll score a lot of goals.
Meanwhile, Ehlers is already scoring a lot of goals on his own.

IDK - it just seems obvious to me

 

[Weezeric]

I totally hate it -
Ehlers can get away with playing with pretty much anybody because he drives play for himself / by himself.
He will do it on his own because he can - and watching him, I get the feeling it likes it that way.

KC can't - but set him up with the right center, and he'll score a lot of goals.
Meanwhile, Ehlers is already scoring a lot of goals on his own.

IDK - it just seems obvious to me

Totally agree with this. To me, the simple answer is to lower the responsibility of the Scheifele line a bit and give that to the Ehlers. It will improve the performance of the top line and give Ehlers more opportunity to continue to excel. That’s what I hope to see this year.

 

[DRW204]

Interesting roller-coaster ride for Wheeler's D play. But yes, that does support him being at least somewhat effective defensively (not counting last year with the cracked ribs).

I think there may be a semantics problem, or at least I have a bit of one. Play-maker and play-driver are pretty similar. My definition of them is intuitive rather than specific. A play-driver is more assertive, less passive. He should also be something of a play-maker but not necessarily. A play-driver is more likely to be working to gain possession in the D zone than to be sneaking into the O zone, cheating for offense. Just my gut definition.

Ehlers is good defensively partly just because he tries. But he also uses his speed to backcheck very well. He breaks up opposing rushes before they have a chance to get organized in our D zone. I think that elevates him to above average defensively despite any weaknesses he may have in other aspects of defensive play.

I think Scheif + Ehlers can carry Copp offensively while he helps them defensively. I think PLD and Wheeler can carry Connor defensively while making plays he can finish.

If we could combine Connor and Copp into 1 player, I would gladly carry a plug as the 6th member of our top 6.

idk roslovic i see primarily as a play-maker, but is he considered a play-driver? i think most play-drivers do have strong play-making abilities. i think most consider play-drivers a summary of qualities (shot/chance generation either individual or via play-making, zone exits/entries etc.) and generally improving their line in shot/chance/goal generation with their inclusion (basically with/without you or relative to team stats).

idk to me with ehlers you're just describing an average defensive play. like, that's what fwds are supposed to do? idk, this is just based on my eye-test/stats. but he rates better relative to the top6 b/c the common top6ers (over the years: laine/wheeler/connor/scheifele) are usually below-average, and ehlers generally plays less defense with his offense/transition play (thus improving his net shot/chance/goal stats). to me his actual defensive play is just average, but due to his offense/transition he really doesn't play lots of defense. anyway it's semantics.

PLD has never really been a great defensive player, even in CBJ. the whole "2 way" moniker i've always felt is a misnomer for him. i find, people slap that label on those Cs that are in the 55ish pt range are given that to somehow make up for the lack of offense as if they're providing more on the defensive end. guys like ROR, it makes sense, same w/ Toews since they do rate strongly on both ends. every objective piece ive seen rates PLD more of an offensive-driver than anything close to a 2-way player. maybe that changes here, idk.

yes, if copp+connor was 1 player that'd be great. or an ehlers on every line lol.

 

[JetsUK]

Yeah Maurice pretty well said as much in the presser. He likes the fit. Says not sure if its 2 weeks or 2 months he will stick with it before considering changing things up. But made specific reference to letting Ves grow into the role a bit.

Hmmm. Where's @nobody imp0rtant with his translations from PoMo-speak >>> plain English?

"Grow into the role a bit" = 2 games before benching/demotion/waiver wires
"His job to lose" = It was never his job, the scrub
"I really really like this kid" = "When's the next Greyhound bus to Heinolaville?"

Ya know, that kind of thing....

In all seriousness (as Bobby Bittman might say) this is a very interesting prospective lineup and has looked night and day from last year, especially with respect to transition play, etc.

 

[surixon]

While in topic of play drivers etc. We have spent a lot of time over the last few years talking about how imbalanced our defense was and for good measure but imo our forward core has been pretty imbalanced itself.

We have a glut of one way forwards that don't defend particularly well and our two most expensive forwards can't drive the play.

I think that is why got Dubois as he brings some size and scoring touch. It also looks like management is trying to mold his game into more of a two way physical center to support our more offensive minded players.

We need Perfetti to continue to grow into an all around offensive play driver as imo Scheifele will likely age similarly or Wheeler so we will need someone to pick up the elite play driving slack as he declines.

 

[WolfHouse]

Looking like Toni-Nash-Svech...
Harkins needs another big night because he’s just not on Mo’s radar it seems