Winnipeg Jets Top 20 Prospects 2015 - #19

[Jetabre]

Hoping he is like Larkin, one year there, has a great season then decides to go pro. But yeah I'd be surprised if Connor stayed more than 2 years.

 

[Jets]

If Sami Niku was a 2nd year prospect and his name was Fred Smith, he wouldn't have a vote. But shiny new toy combined with Euro and he goes from 7th round pick to more votes than Kitchton/Lipon...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Those numbers for Olsen are surprising to me. I mean, he looked good in camp, but he never really stuck out to me when I was watching the IceCaps.

Never got to actually watch the Icecaps but I think Olsen came on later in the year. Not as sharply as Kosmo but enough to be encouraging. I've voted Olsen for a couple of rounds now. Hoping for a big leap forward from him this year.

 

[Jetabre]

If Sami Niku was a 2nd year prospect and his name was Fred Smith, he wouldn't have a vote. But shiny new toy combined with Euro and he goes from 7th round pick to more votes than Kitchton/Lipon...

I think most of us were just genuinely impressed from what we saw at development camp? At least that's why I like him. Though I've currently been voting Glover for the last couple polls and probably won't get to voting Niku in the top 20.

 

[scelaton]

If Sami Niku was a 2nd year prospect and his name was Fred Smith, he wouldn't have a vote. But shiny new toy combined with Euro and he goes from 7th round pick to more votes than Kitchton/Lipon...

So, now we have gone from being anti-Euro to pro-Euro and anti-North American?

Consider this: if Niku were Canadian or American, with exactly the same skill-set, he probably would have been much more closely scouted and drafted much, much higher.

 

[garret9]

If Sami Niku was a 2nd year prospect and his name was Fred Smith, he wouldn't have a vote. But shiny new toy combined with Euro and he goes from 7th round pick to more votes than Kitchton/Lipon...

Yes and no. It's not because he is European and there is a bias, but because he played in Europe... pro-level... against men.

Doing so is a positive sign on a player, even if they don't score much (although Niku did score very well in the Mestis, not much in the Liiga though).

That's why even as a 7th round draft pick, he has a statistical cohort success rate higher than the average CHL player (~8%). Niku was one of the guys I was looking for the 4-6 rounds, so I honestly don't look at him the same way as many here.

Only 2.53% of players at Franklin's age that scored like he did in the NCAA make the NHL.
Another way to look at that: Franklin's scoring isn't special enough to consider a solid prospect given his age and league.

Too much of a looooooooooooong shot for me at this point given the better players on the board.

To compare, guys % for last season:
Kichton 26.72 (AHL bump)
Olsen 20.13 (AHL bump)
Lipon 19.48% (AHL bump)
Blomqvist 19.05
Lodge 15.66
Niku 14.29
Glover 10.45
Poolman 5.67

At the same age Kichton had better percentages than Niku does now but has been on a bit of a down trend, plus there is legitimate questions about whether skating will limit his ability to translate to the next level.

Olsen likely is a 4th line player tops if he makes it to the show, and Lipon had a tough year plus may be limited to fourth line upside too.

It's understandable that Niku, who very well may has a shot (even if small) to become top-4 LHD could be rated highly by some.

 

[Jets4Life]

Only 2.53% of players at Franklin's age that scored like he did in the NCAA make the NHL.
Another way to look at that: Franklin's scoring isn't special enough to consider a solid prospect given his age and league.

Too much of a looooooooooooong shot for me at this point given the better players on the board.

To compare, guys % for last season:
Kichton 26.72
Olsen 20.13
Lipon 19.48%
Blomqvist 19.05
Lodge 15.66
Niku 14.29
Glover 10.45
Poolman 5.67

You have to keep in mind that players like Glover and Poolman are defensemen, so their scoring numbers will not be as high as the forwards.

Also, Chiarot did not even make the top 20 prospects last year, but managed to make the Jets.

 

[Jets4Life]

If Sami Niku was a 2nd year prospect and his name was Fred Smith, he wouldn't have a vote. But shiny new toy combined with Euro and he goes from 7th round pick to more votes than Kitchton/Lipon...

That's actually what I had posted on the #18 thread. It seems European prospects are ranked higher than North American prospects on hfboards, despite the North American players going higher in the draft. Examples:

Spacek > Foley
Niku > Appleton
Kraskovsky > Nogier

Problem is that in the 2011 and 2012 drafts, the Jets picked mainly Canadian players, with a few Americans in the mix. The first European player picked was Jan Kostalek in 2013. We should have a better idea of how our European pics perform in three years from now.

 

[jetman]

I think most people seem to think that European leagues are more high risk high reward sort of deal. Everyone hopes their gamble pays off.

 

[Jets4Life]

I think most people seem to think that European leagues are more high risk high reward sort of deal. Everyone hopes their gamble pays off.

There are exceptions. (former Jets GM Mikhail Smith )

 

[Jets4Life]

For comparison (2013 Hfboards Top 20):

1. Jacob Trouba
2. Mark Scheifele
3. Josh Morrissey
4. Adam Lowry
5. Zach Redmond Colorado)
6. Nic Petan
7. Paul Postma
8. Eric O'Dell (Ottawa)
9. Connor Hellebuyck
10. Ivan Telegin
11. Eric Comrie
12. Jimmy Lodge
13. Scott Kosmachuk
14. Arturs Kulda
15. J.C. Lipon
16. Julian Melchiori
17. Juho Olkinuora
18. Ryan Olsen
19. Brenden Kichton
20. Andrew Copp

 

[garret9]

I think most people seem to think that European leagues are more high risk high reward sort of deal. Everyone hopes their gamble pays off.

It's a false idea to have for two reasons...

1) Risk is inverse to reward.
High risk and high reward well over 90% of the time doesn't exist, nor the opposite. Usually the players noted that are either one or the other. The exception is players who are near the peak of their development curve (or after) so you already basically know what they are.
When you look at players who perform statistically to a prospect at the same age, the percentage of them that made the NHL rises just like how well the ones that played in the NHL did.

2) Risk/Reward are related to player performance at that age not nationality.
For the most part, players who move on to the next level are the top few in the last level. The competition gets higher and it's survival of the fittest.
It doesn't have anything to do with country or continent drafted, but the quality of the league and performing in that league. The average 17 year-old drafted out of the best Swedish Junior league (SuperElite U20) makes the NHL as a regular less often than in the CHL, but the average 17-year-old in the SHL makes the NHL more often than in the CHL. Why? Because it's more exceptional to be a player in the CHL than SuperElite, but more exceptional to be a player in the SHL than either.

 

[Jets4Life]

2011 top prospects (the cupboards were bare...):

1. Mark Scheifele, C (made Jets)
2. Carl Klingberg, LW (traded to Rangers)
3. Patrice Cormier, C (AHL Moose)
4. Paul Postma, D (made Jets)
5. Jason Gregoire, LW (ECHL)
6. Ivan Telegin, C (KHL)
7. Eric O'Dell, C (traded to Ottawa)
8. Ben Maxwell, C (playing in Europe)
9. Spencer Machacek, RW (playing in Europe)
10. Arturs Kulda, D (KHL)
11. Zach Redmond, D (Colorado)
12. Vinny Saponari, RW (ECHL)
13. Julian Melchiori, D (AHL Moose)
14. Fredrik Pettersson-Wentzel, G (playing in Europe)
15. Daultan Leveille, C (ECHL)
16. Adam Lowry, LW (made the Jets)
17. Brennan Serville, D (NCAA)
18. Jordan Samuels-Thomas, LW (AHL)
19. John Albert, C (AHL)
20. Zachary Yuen, D (ECHL)

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Interesting to go back and read some of those threads from the 2011 voting. Far, far fewer people participating.

Man, what was up with all the love for Gregoire?

 

[Jets4Life]

Interesting to go back and read some of those threads from the 2011 voting. Far, far fewer people participating.

Man, what was up with all the love for Gregoire?

Local boy?

 

[Romang67]

Interesting to go back and read some of those threads from the 2011 voting. Far, far fewer people participating.

Man, what was up with all the love for Gregoire?

Again, I'm the first to admit that I didn't pay much attention to prospects (that weren't Swedish) until at earliest 2011, but... I never considered him even a decent prospect.

 

[garret9]

You have to keep in mind that players like Franklin, Glover, and Poolman are defensemen, so their scoring numbers will not be as high as the forwards.

Also, Chiarot did not even make the top 20 prospects last year, but managed to make the Jets.

Those numbers take that into account.

Those percentages are how often scoring similar players who are same position, age, and height make the NHL.

It would be silly if I wasn't accounting defenders scoring less and I would not be looking at selling this to GMs but getting shamed ins stead.


Also, to the Chiarot thing, my numbers have nothing to do with where Chiarot placed in the voting here. If it did, you also need to distinct probability from dratiny. A 30% player who misses the NHL was still the better performer than the long shot 4% who made it.

There's risk in all players which is why it is flawed to always think of players who made it had the best shot at the time of being drafted as the ones that made it. Outliers exist and should not be noted as dismiss I a trend, although outlier research is important too.

 

[Jets4Life]

I read your column on Sami Niku. Very well done:

http://jetsnation.ca/2015/6/27/winnipeg-jets-look-to-hit-value-in-the-late-rounds-draft-sami-niku-198th-overall

 

[EastRiver]

At this point I'll stick with Glover although it's a crapshoot now.

 

[Boreal]

Voted for Glover, based on upside. I think he is being heavily undersold here, though he did have a forgettable season as a freshman on a loaded team. Talent doesn't typically disappear, and he was highly regarded in his draft spot. I like his tools.

Pet prospect vote for Blomqvist coming up for me at #20 (if Glover is off the board). I like Niku here as well.

 

[truck]

You have to keep in mind that players like Franklin, Glover, and Poolman are defensemen, so their scoring numbers will not be as high as the forwards.

Also, Chiarot did not even make the top 20 prospects last year, but managed to make the Jets.

Franklin isn't a defenseman.

 

[truck]

That's actually what I had posted on the #18 thread. It seems European prospects are ranked higher than North American prospects on hfboards, despite the North American players going higher in the draft. Examples:

Spacek > Foley
Niku > Appleton
Kraskovsky > Nogier

Problem is that in the 2011 and 2012 drafts, the Jets picked mainly Canadian players, with a few Americans in the mix. The first European player picked was Jan Kostalek in 2013. We should have a better idea of how our European pics perform in three years from now.

I am not sure this is as simple as a bias towards Euros. There is really no reason to believe this. Karlstrom Karlstrom and Blomqvist are easy counterpoint. Many people knew more about Spacek than Foley pre-draft - it is likely as simple as that.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

I am not sure this is as simple as a bias towards Euros. There is really no reason to believe this. Karlstrom Karlstrom and Blomqvist are easy counterpoint. Many people knew more about Spacek than Foley pre-draft - it is likely as simple as that.

something something Swedish lawfirm something

 

[Jets4Life]

I am not sure this is as simple as a bias towards Euros. There is really no reason to believe this. Karlstrom Karlstrom and Blomqvist are easy counterpoint. Many people knew more about Spacek than Foley pre-draft - it is likely as simple as that.

Except, of course, Chevy and the Jets entire scouting department, who drafted him higher...

I'm more inclined to believe the Jets drafting department, over blog writers. If the Jets drafted Foley in a higher round than Spacek, I can only assume that the Jets consider Foley the superior prospect.

 

[Jets4Life]

Top 20 prospects 2012:

1. Mark Scheifele, C
2. Jacob Trouba, D
3. Ivan Telegin, LW
4. Paul Postma, D
5. Spencer Machacek, RW
7. Patrice Cormier, C
8. Carl Klingberg, LW
8. Eddie Pasquale, G
9. Lukas Sutter, C
10. Adam Lowry, LW
11. Zach Redmond, D
12. Scott Kosmachuk, RW
13. Zachary Yuen, D
14. Jason Gregoire, LW
15. Ben Maxwell, C
16. Julian Melchiori, D
17. Eric O'Dell, C
18. Cody Sol, D
19. Brennan Serville, D
20. Austen Brassard, RW