Winnipeg Jets Top 20 Prospects 2015 - #12

[truck]

Voted Kostalek. Best D man in the Q and the best Czech defender at the worlds - twice - makes for a pretty solid pedigree.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Choice between Kostalek and Lemieux and I went with Lemieux as I think he has top 6 potential

But it is nice to have guys like this at this point in the ratings is it not?

 

[Jetabre]

Wow this is ridiculously close right now between the 3 guys I was also debating between.

 

[garret9]

I have Kosmachuk, Kostalek, Lemieux, Kichton, Lipon, and Spacek all in this tier.

Kichton had a relatively "tough year", yet still scored at a pace where 1/4 (26%) who do at his age make it into the NHL for at least 200 GP. He was a 50% player the year prior with AHL All Star nod.

Kosmachuk had performed similarly to Lemieux has up to this point, but then did extremely well in his final OHL season (albeit with a stacked cast) and had an AHL season quantitatively similar to Adam Lowry.

Lipon, like Kichton, had a down year on a bad team, but had a really strong AHL rookie season. Quantitatively his D+3 rookie season in the AHL was better than Kosmachuk, Lowry, or Armia.

Lemieux has the same numbers as Kosmachuk, without the added benefit of the AHL performance. He does have the family and draft pedigree though.

Kostalek I've been a fan of for a long while. While his scoring numbers place him as relatively weakest of this group, he looks to be a player that promotes a good Corsi and tilts the ice. He also picked up the scoring in the playoffs, albeit could have been percentage driven.

Spacek analytically is the strongest of all the bunch. Despite being small and only just turned 18, he's already played in one of the top 5 toughest leagues in the world and also has already played in the world juniors. Heck, as a 16 year old, he had already played 4 games in Czech pro league.
He's scored well, but his numbers could be inflated by percentages... on the other hand you have to be half decent for a pro team to play you full time at 17.

Glover would normally be in this tier as well last year, although his season last year leaves question marks. I could see him returning though to this conversation next year.

I'm going to sleep on this, but add Kichton.

Decided Kosmachuk > Lemieux.

When either were 18 they ranked in the OHL for 18 year olds:

Kosmachuk
18th in ES Pts/GP
4th in ES G
15th in % of team points for games played when looking at all situations
49th in relative goal percentage

Lemieux
27th in ES Pts/GP
18th in ES goals
23rd in % of team points for games played when looking at all situations
66th in relative goal percentage


In other words, Kosmachuk scored better at better even strength pace, Kosmachuk scored more goals at even strength, Kosmachuk was involved a higher percentage for his team's points, and Kosmachunk had a less of a negative impact on his team goal differentials... all at the same age.



I'm going in order:

Kosmachuk - good AHL season and relatively better than Lemieux at Lemieux's best season
Lemieux - slightly less impressive Kosmachuk but more draft pedigree
Kostalek - waiting to see what he's like at pro
Spacek - amazing resume at young age, but still needs to repeat success
Lipon - great rookie year in pro, needs to bounce back
Kichton - see Lipon

 

[Hammer Slammer]

Kostalek.

Pumped to see him on the Moose this year.

 

[sully1410]

Voted Kostalek. Add Kichton.

 

[CanWin]

Voted Kosmo.

Add Blomqvist.

 

[BrianFromAIH]

Gotta go with the future fourth line LW. Lemieux.

Add Kichton.

 

[Scheifele55]

Not at all. Draft order doesn't retain much meaning after the draft. Ellerby was 10th overall just a few years ago.

A few isn't 8 years ago We all know that Keaton Ellerby never came close to his potential. I don't see any evidence that Brendan Lemieux has regressed.

 

[garret9]

A few isn't 8 years ago We all know that Keaton Ellerby never came close to his potential. I don't see any evidence that Brendan Lemieux has regressed.

Doesn't mean he has to have regressed.
Someone could think that he wasn't a 31st overall pick on an average year in the first place.

 

[truck]

Decided Kosmachuk > Lemieux.

When either were 18 they ranked in the OHL for 18 year olds:

Kosmachuk
18th in ES Pts/GP
4th in ES G
15th in % of team points for games played when looking at all situations
49th in relative goal percentage

Lemieux
27th in ES Pts/GP
18th in ES goals
23rd in % of team points for games played when looking at all situations
66th in relative goal percentage


In other words, Kosmachuk scored better at better even strength pace, Kosmachuk scored more goals at even strength, Kosmachuk was involved a higher percentage for his team's points, and Kosmachunk had a less of a negative impact on his team goal differentials... all at the same age.



I'm going in order:

Kosmachuk - good AHL season and relatively better than Lemieux at Lemieux's best season
Lemieux - slightly less impressive Kosmachuk but more draft pedigree
Kostalek - waiting to see what he's like at pro
Spacek - amazing resume at young age, but still needs to repeat success
Lipon - great rookie year in pro, needs to bounce back
Kichton - see Lipon

Kossy was a top goal scorer in his age group for his entire OHL career.

This article is old, but it reflects his goal scoring dominance. I hope he can do some of the same in the AHL. Petan passes might help. Him along side DeLeo could be a fun line too.

 

[EastRiver]

Went with Kosmo.
Add Phillips.

 

[KingBogo]

Decided Kosmachuk > Lemieux.

When either were 18 they ranked in the OHL for 18 year olds:

Kosmachuk
18th in ES Pts/GP
4th in ES G
15th in % of team points for games played when looking at all situations
49th in relative goal percentage

Lemieux
27th in ES Pts/GP
18th in ES goals
23rd in % of team points for games played when looking at all situations
66th in relative goal percentage


In other words, Kosmachuk scored better at better even strength pace, Kosmachuk scored more goals at even strength, Kosmachuk was involved a higher percentage for his team's points, and Kosmachunk had a less of a negative impact on his team goal differentials... all at the same age.



I'm going in order:

Kosmachuk - good AHL season and relatively better than Lemieux at Lemieux's best season
Lemieux - slightly less impressive Kosmachuk but more draft pedigree
Kostalek - waiting to see what he's like at pro
Spacek - amazing resume at young age, but still needs to repeat success
Lipon - great rookie year in pro, needs to bounce back
Kichton - see Lipon

This will be a big year for Kosmachuk. He is dropping like a stone compared to last year's HF Jets rankings. Last year he was a solid 6th ahead of Lowry at 7th (so much for our collective wisdom ). I know as last year I was pumping his tires, but have backed off considerably since then. It will be very interesting to see if he can bust out this year because now the cupboard is even fuller with grade A prospects. Otherwise he just might end up disappearing into the wind like Klingberg or O'Dell.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

This will be a big year for Kosmachuk. He is dropping like a stone compared to last year's HF Jets rankings. Last year he was a solid 6th ahead of Lowry at 7th (so much for our collective wisdom ). I know as last year I was pumping his tires, but have backed off considerably since then. It will be very interesting to see if he can bust out this year because now the cupboard is even fuller with grade A prospects. Otherwise he just might end up disappearing into the wind like Klingberg or O'Dell.

Read the bolded as 1 sentence.

Kosmo is great, no less than he was before. It's just we've crowded the cupboard with a lot of guys whovare just as great or greater since last year.

 

[truck]

Kossy was a top goal scorer in his age group for his entire OHL career.

This article is old, but it reflects his goal scoring dominance. I hope he can do some of the same in the AHL. Petan passes might help. Him along side DeLeo could be a fun line too.

Linking an article works best when you include the link you dunce.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/12/19/5227734/scott-kosmachuk-goal-scorer-winnipeg-jets-prospect

 

[AngelicAssassin*]

Lemieux.

Add Lodge

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Linking an article works best when you include the link you dunce.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/12/19/5227734/scott-kosmachuk-goal-scorer-winnipeg-jets-prospect

I don't like the way you're talking to that guy, you jerk. I'm gonna tell a mod!

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

That Euro factor

Spacek

 

[truck]

I don't like the way you're talking to that guy, you jerk. I'm gonna tell a mod!

That never ends well. They'll probably ban us both.

 

[Scheifele55]

Doesn't mean he has to have regressed.
Someone could think that he wasn't a 31st overall pick on an average year in the first place.

What is your opinion on him? Has he progressed? regressed? Do you know if he was a reach when chosen?

 

[KingBogo]

Read the bolded as 1 sentence.

Kosmo is great, no less than he was before. It's just we've crowded the cupboard with a lot of guys whovare just as great or greater since last year.

I'll only agree partly as at best he treaded water last season and in the world of prospects that is falling back. That is why I started by saying this is a big year for him. If he has another season on the Moose with approx the same results he will get buried even further depending on how those around him do. He really does need to show he can be a productive pro and that would require his production to jump considerably. Obviously I hope he does. But it is also why I try to avoid getting too attached to prospects because even with the amount of good ones we have most won't end up having long careers as Jet players.

 

[garret9]

What is your opinion on him? Has he progressed? regressed? Do you know if he was a reach when chosen?

Slight reach.

PCS has him as a 14.8% player in his 17-year-old year and a 14.1% player in his 18-year-old year.

For context, some non-first round Jet players:

Kosmachuk 13.6, 18.2
Petan 31.3, 28.6
De Leo 16.8, 9.6
Harkins 36.6
Spacek 25.0

So if that helps place some context.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A few isn't 8 years ago We all know that Keaton Ellerby never came close to his potential. I don't see any evidence that Brendan Lemieux has regressed.

2 Days old but I missed this earlier.
8 years ago is like yesterday. Ellerby was just the Jets connected example that came first to mind. There are plenty of others. We don't know that Ellerby failed to reach his potential. In fact I think it is more likely that his potential was misjudged by the scouts. There was no particular evidence of any shortcoming in Ellerby as he entered his last year of junior either.

You are completely missing the point. Post draft you don't rate prospects according to where they were drafted. You rate them based on their body of work with an emphasis on the most recent.