Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Gm0ney]

Jets are 9 games over .500 without Ehlers. Factor in the return from a trade and I think they will be just fine without him.

Jets Record Without Nikolaj Ehlers | StatMuse

The Winnipeg Jets have a record of 49-40-7 without Nikolaj Ehlers all-time.

www.statmuse.com

Lol...that's a 90 point pace!

 

[Orrrules]

Lol...that's a 90 point pace!

Now factor in the return on the trade.

 

[LowLefty]

It's an incredibly interesting question and I intend to do more research later but my running theory is that deployment has a lot to do with it. To me it seems that the team has been able to carry a poor top line in the regular season but isn't capable of it in playoffs.

Mark and KC do similarly in the playoffs, score points and give up a shit tonne of chances and goals. I think it's just more apparent as we are playing better teams in the playoffs.

I also think Chevy and Bones messed it up big time with the second line they created heading into the postseason. Sure they brought in vet experience but the issue is both the players they brought in are slow. So we lost a tonne of speed and the Avs took full advantage. That line couldn't keep up and was a liability.

So I think we need a better top line first and foremost. Then we need to build the right depth and then gwt good coaching and goaltending plus buy in.

I agree on the slower guys we added - in hindsight, I think the org (and most fans) were caught up in the experience factor and forgot about (or chose to over look) the lack of speed - I'm guilty for sure.
IMO, and I've preached this point for yrs, if you don't have top end talent, you better have top end heart / drive - because the only way you can counter the really top talent in this league, is to shut them down through a lot of hard work.

So, IMO, we have the horses to play good hockey in the warm up (reg season) - but don't' have what it takes to ramp up.
That's just my opinion - I have no interest in arguing the point. But if I had my way, we'd be moving a few guys out, see if we can add some heart (that isn't over the hill), and start working our youth into the lineup ASAP (because they actually look promising for a change). Call that a rebuilt or whatever -

 

[surixon]

I agree on the slower guys we added - in hindsight, I think the org (and most fans) were caught up in the experience factor and forgot about (or chose to over look) the lack of speed - I'm guilty for sure.
IMO, and I've preached this point for yrs, if you don't have top end talent, you better have top end heart / drive - because the only way you can counter the really top talent in this league, is to shut them down through a lot of hard work.

So, IMO, we have the horses to play good hockey in the warm up (reg season) - but don't' have what it takes to ramp up.
That's just my opinion - I have no interest in arguing the point. But if I had my way, we'd be moving a few guys out, see if we can add some heart (that isn't over the hill), and start working our youth into the lineup ASAP (because they actually look promising for a change). Call that a rebuilt or whatever -

I agree. I think our core upfront is either past the point of being able to drive a team to multiple rounds (Scheifele) or are really one dimensional complimentary players KC who wouldn't be a core piece on many other teams.

I see it as we have Helle and JoMo as true contending core guys then a bunch of guys who would be high end supporting pieces on contending teams.

We really have to hope that we get a Dallas lite impact by our youth while Helle, JoMo, and Scheife can still compete ala (Benn, Pelvalski etc.)

I expect Cole to take a other step next year but we need a healthy Vilardi and a other of our kids to step up and give the team a jolt.

 

[Buffdog]

I'm sure we've been over it, but even ignoring Ehlers' impressive analytics, he's an elite offensive player. A legit top-line winger.

I know rate stats are like witchcraft or something, but the guy is 19th in the NHL at 5v5 in individual goals/60 over the past 3 seasons.

He's 49th in actual goals scored himself - ahead of a bunch of guys who've played way more minutes (Horvat, Caufield, Duchene, Terry, Seguin, Gaudreau, DeBrincat, Tavares, (Patrick) Kane, (also Evander Kane, fwiw), Eichel, Andrei Svechnikov. Actually, Eichel's played fewer minutes, but Ehlers scored more and so their g/60 is the same.

In points/60 he's 8th in the NHL over the last 3 seasons. Tied with Jason Robertson. Ahead of Bratt and Panarin.

In actual points, he's 64th - tied with Tavares, one point behind Suzuki, Barkov, Kopitar, DeBrincat, Giroux, and Marchessault. 64 out of 573 - and he missed almost 25% of the games over that period.

On the Jets at 5v5 over the last 3 seasons we have:
Connor with 120 points in 226 games and 3487 minutes.
Scheifele with 119 points in 222 games and 3583 minutes.
Ehlers with 111 points in 189 games and 2535 minutes.

So 9 fewer points than Connor, 8 fewer points than Scheif, in 37 and 33 fewer games, and 952 and 1048 fewer minutes. Say what you will about rate stats but Ehlers probably would've managed 9 or so points in 1000 more minutes...even if it were the playoffs!

Who's next?
Morrissey with 100 points in 238 games and 4558 minutes.
Niederreiter with 95 points in 230 games and 2972 minutes.
(then Dubois, Toffoli, Copp, Wheeler who probably aren't going to help replace Ehlers' production).
Then Namestnikov with 71 points in 230 games and 2636 minutes.

Hopefully Villardi can stay healthy and fill some of the gap. Also better hope the Jets are getting a big return on Ehlers and/or they hit a home run with some prospects...

Like I've said before, I hope we find a way to keep Ehlers. I like him a lot as a player because of the reasons you posted, as well as despite the flaws in his games that your numbers don't suss out

 

[Flair Hay]

Jets are 9 games over .500 without Ehlers. Factor in the return from a trade and I think they will be just fine without him.

Jets Record Without Nikolaj Ehlers | StatMuse

The Winnipeg Jets have a record of 49-40-7 without Nikolaj Ehlers all-time.

www.statmuse.com

This stuff doesn't mean much. Similar circumstance with Connor. 47-34-7.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Like I've said before, I hope we find a way to keep Ehlers. I like him a lot as a player because of the reasons you posted, as well as despite the flaws in his games that your numbers don't suss out

But, we do need to trade a piece that will bring in a great D. Based on usage I imagine it’s more likely to be ehlers moved than kc no matter what fans say.

 

[Orrrules]

This stuff doesn't mean much. Similar circumstance with Connor. 47-34-7.

Probably similar for every player I would guess. Losing a player like Ehlers or Connor isn't going to tank the team.

 

[Flair Hay]

Probably similar for every player I would guess. Losing a player like Ehlers or Connor isn't going to tank the team.

That's fair. Question is does it help us get better?

I've doubted Chevy before and he has surprised me. I still have concerns we will be better without our best transition player (prob top 10 in the NHL at that)

 

[Orrrules]

That's fair. Question is does it help us get better?

I've doubted Chevy before and he has surprised me. I still have concerns we will be better without our best transition player (prob top 10 in the NHL at that)

Depends, short term or long term, an established player now or picks and prospects down the road.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I agree. I think our core upfront is either past the point of being able to drive a team to multiple rounds (Scheifele) or are really one dimensional complimentary players KC who wouldn't be a core piece on many other teams.

I see it as we have Helle and JoMo as true contending core guys then a bunch of guys who would be high end supporting pieces on contending teams.

We really have to hope that we get a Dallas lite impact by our youth while Helle, JoMo, and Scheife can still compete ala (Benn, Pelvalski etc.)

I expect Cole to take a other step next year but we need a healthy Vilardi and a other of our kids to step up and give the team a jolt.

And Helly couldn’t get it done so we have mo. It’s amazing Boston’s only star is pasta, they lose their 2 top centres and keep trucking along.
I don’t know if schief was ever a top 10 player at his position.
So yeah no wonder we can’t compete.

 

[WolfHouse]

Yeah, I get Ehlers was bad in the playoffs but it seems like everyone is forgetting he is by far our best 5v5 forward during the regular season.

I get wanting to move on due to playoff reasons, but losing him is going to make us a worse team in almost every realistic scenario.

Was funny listening to OB talk about how we can replace his 60 pts with a 35 pt player since we won a bunch of games by 2 goals or less...

Scary part is the lack of meat behind the buy pionk/schmidt out narrative - the media guys know its not happening.. and instead of that we will lose Dillon or trade Ehlers

 

[WolfHouse]

But can we replace his xGF%?

We all know that's what REALLY matters

Trouble is that the xGF matched the Ehlers eye test... he had 7 game winning goals and they were not random luck

Everyone is ready to trade Ehlers but when you adjust to power play usage and minutes - he's probably outscoring Scheif...

Ehlers 25 EV goals 29 assists.. Scheif 12 EV goals and 35 EV assists... this is a mistake..... just sayin', Ehlers is going to light it up on Carolina or Rangers...

 

[bumblebeeman]

Was funny listening to OB talk about how we can replace his 60 pts with a 35 pt player since we won a bunch of games by 2 goals or less...

Scary part is the lack of meat behind the buy pionk/schmidt out narrative - the media guys know its not happening.. and instead of that we will lose Dillon or trade Ehlers

Nobody was talking about buying out Wheeler until it happened either (in the media). That said I don't think it happens lol. Maybe Pionk is traded with a little retention tho, it they can find a 2nd pairing RHD...

 

[surixon]

And Helly couldn’t get it done so we have mo. It’s amazing Boston’s only star is pasta, they lose their 2 top centres and keep trucking along.
I don’t know if schief was ever a top 10 player at his position.
So yeah no wonder we can’t compete.

I think he was but only for a very short time (18-20).

It's hard to explain Boston, they aren't that great upfront on paper but keep getting it done.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Hey, look who's playing Moneyball - maybe we can replace Ehlers in the aggregate!

We just need 61 guys to get 1 point each to replace his 23/24 reg season totals. One point! Anyone can get a single point. Easy!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah probably should have clarified that as a long term hope. We need on of them to supplant Scheif in the coming years. Pretty much our only hope currently.

It's going to be very hard to replace Ehlers in the regular season. Very replaceable in the playoffs though.

One of them might supplant Scheif in the next few years. But that is probably Scheif declining more than it is them taking over as a true 1C. It will be kind of like when we used to argue that Little was a true 1C.

Hope one or both exceed my expectations. There is at least some room for hope.

 

[Maukkis]

I don't want Ehlers traded but if he is why is it a foregone conclusion that whatever we got back in a trade makes us worse? I'll wait to see what we got back in a trade before saying we are hooped without Ehlers because we haven't done very good with him in the playoffs up to now.

Name a time when a team traded away its best 5v5 player and became better as a result. It doesn't have to be more complex than that.

If you're worried about the playoffs, you trade Connor and start revamping the top 6 around Ehlers, Scheifele, and Perfetti. That's the closest we have to what makes a top 6 dominate - it's not even close to being perfect, but it's also not totally unviable like our "projected" top 6 without Nik is.

Trouble is that the xGF matched the Ehlers eye test... he had 7 game winning goals and they were not random luck

Everyone is ready to trade Ehlers but when you adjust to power play usage and minutes - he's probably outscoring Scheif...

Ehlers 25 EV goals 29 assists.. Scheif 12 EV goals and 35 EV assists... this is a mistake..... just sayin', Ehlers is going to light it up on Carolina or Rangers...

He's outscoring all of the Jets and most of the rest of the league over a multi-year time frame. It's not trouble, it's a fact that can be backed up with several seasons' worth of data. The fact that there are posters who don't understand the concepts of ice time and even strength is alarming, but it's also not your fault.

 

[surixon]

Yeah probably should have clarified that as a long term hope. We need on of them to supplant Scheif in the coming years. Pretty much our only hope currently.

It's going to be very hard to replace Ehlers in the regular season. Very replaceable in the playoffs though.

Yup. None are replacing him over the next few years but hard to say about long term. I still believe Perfetti has all the attributes to be an Aho lite 1C but they are going to have to convert him and let him grow into the role next year for that to have any possibility of it happening.

 

[Buffdog]

Name a time when a team traded away its best 5v5 player and became better as a result. It doesn't have to be more complex than that.

If you're worried about the playoffs, you trade Connor and start revamping the top 6 around Ehlers, Scheifele, and Perfetti. That's the closest we have to what makes a top 6 dominate - it's not even close to being perfect, but it's also not totally unviable like our "projected" top 6 without Nik is.


He's outscoring all of the Jets and most of the rest of the league over a multi-year time frame. It's not trouble, it's a fact that can be backed up with several seasons' worth of data. The fact that there are posters who don't understand the concepts of ice time and even strength is alarming, but it's also not your fault.

Oilers won a cup after trading Wayne and the Lindros trade help set up the Avs for their cup win. It all depends on return, and I'm sure there are more examples

As for the ice time and even strength vs all situations, you do undersaltand that P/60 doesn't scale linearly and if looking at graphing absolute production, it will be an inverted J - meaning there is a point of diminishing returns. Where that point is will be different for different players, but it's foolish to assume that playing a high P/60 player more will automatically result in more production.

 

[Gm0ney]

Absolutely a great reg season player - when you give him a little space, he'll take a mile and a ton of fun to watch -
But the PO's are another animal - and that's where that space dries up and the game changes.
We have a number of talented players that struggle when the chips are down so this isn't an anti-Ehlers point - but it does apply.
We need to sort that out - is it player type or player drive that expose this in the PO's?

Since 2019, the Jets teams that made the playoffs (or play-ins) were either bottom-10 weak with very good goaltending, or, in the case of the last two seasons, the goaltending just collapsed in the playoffs.

The 2020 play-in Jets were on the bubble and not a good team. The 2021 North Division team wasn't great either...goalied Edmonton and then got pummelled by the Habs. 2022 they missed. 2023 worst goaltending in the playoffs. 2024 worst goaltending in the playoffs again.

Anyway, 2020 and 2021 I don't think we should've realistically expected those teams to do much. 2022 and 2023 we did expect more, but it's tough to outscore league-worst goaltending...especially when your special teams suck and, I don't want to accuse the Jets of just relying on elite goaltending - but when it suddenly and unexpectedly evaporates, everything turns into a gong-show.

 

[Dale53130]

If Carolina and New York are interested in 1st round exits, they should take a serious look at acquiring Ehlers. If we're fortunate enough to get a quality defenseman for him - in a package of some sort - you're killing two birds with one stone. He's a regular season crutch, and a postseason albatross.

 

[Weezeric]

Oilers won a cup after trading Wayne and the Lindros trade help set up the Avs for their cup win. It all depends on return, and I'm sure there are more examples

As for the ice time and even strength vs all situations, you do undersaltand that P/60 doesn't scale linearly and if looking at graphing absolute production, it will be an inverted J - meaning there is a point of diminishing returns. Where that point is will be different for different players, but it's foolish to assume that playing a high P/60 player more will automatically result in more production.

You mean if you played Ehlers 60 minutes a game, he wouldn’t score 215 points at 5v5?!?

Don’t worry the Jets have two of the top 5 players in the NHL by points per 60 over the past three seasons coming into the lineup next year in Lambert and Chibrikov…

 

[WolfHouse]

Oilers won a cup after trading Wayne and the Lindros trade help set up the Avs for their cup win. It all depends on return, and I'm sure there are more examples

As for the ice time and even strength vs all situations, you do undersaltand that P/60 doesn't scale linearly and if looking at graphing absolute production, it will be an inverted J - meaning there is a point of diminishing returns. Where that point is will be different for different players, but it's foolish to assume that playing a high P/60 player more will automatically result in more production.

This is true - but with current ice time Ehlers scores at an EV rate comparable to Scheifele - its not going to be easy to replace... it wouldn't be mind-blowing if he scored more playing 20 minutes a game...

 

[LowLefty]

Since 2019, the Jets teams that made the playoffs (or play-ins) were either bottom-10 weak with very good goaltending, or, in the case of the last two seasons, the goaltending just collapsed in the playoffs.

The 2020 play-in Jets were on the bubble and not a good team. The 2021 North Division team wasn't great either...goalied Edmonton and then got pummelled by the Habs. 2022 they missed. 2023 worst goaltending in the playoffs. 2024 worst goaltending in the playoffs again.

Anyway, 2020 and 2021 I don't think we should've realistically expected those teams to do much. 2022 and 2023 we did expect more, but it's tough to outscore league-worst goaltending...especially when your special teams suck and, I don't want to accuse the Jets of just relying on elite goaltending - but when it suddenly and unexpectedly evaporates, everything turns into a gong-show.

Goaltending needs to take some of the blame for sure - but out d has been pretty bad, especially this latest PO.
I think we expect Helle to be the difference maker - and he's paid to be that at times. But if that's the game plan, we're in trouble IMO.
Our Dzone coverage this last PO was a goaltenders nightmare - and I agree with Helle's season closing comments on what he was up against vs the Aves.