Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[JetsUK]

Brendan Dillon makes The Athletic's Top 20 list of the most effective shutdown D. Canes lead with 3 in the group:

Who are the NHL’s best shutdown defensemen and why are they so valuable?

There are plenty of elite shutdown defenders who never get a turn in the spotlight because of the focus on points.

theathletic.com

Brayden McNabb and Brenden Dillon are throwbacks with the classic size, punishing hitting, battle-winning dominance and shot-blocking tools you expected from the stay-at-home defensemen of yesteryear. Both players have robust physical tools but the key is that they’re also smart with the angles and routes they take defensively. Their skating and puck skills also aren’t a liability, which is why they’ve continued thriving as top-four players on contending teams whereas other veteran defensemen with this archetype have been phased out.

 

[DRW204]

Losing both Demelo and Dillon in the off-season would be devastating and would leave the Jets with a defense akin to the 2019-20 team.


Where's Stanley? Sitting in the pressbox?

agree on if we lose both. but i think our LD has the potential to still be ok if dillon does leave. less confident on demelo w/ the right side.

i love dillon's game, & ultimately depends on what he wants for a contract. but i think sameberg should be able to fill into the 2LD spot if Dillon departs. however, this team treats him more as a rotational 3rd pair D sometimes rather than a capable or potential top-4. Stanley has played well this year too, do they see him as a mainstay at 3LD again? problem i see is still pionk at 2RD.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My guess is Schmidt is bought out. We need to retain one of DeMelo or Dillion.

What I'd like to see:

JoMo upgrade
Snerg Pionk
Heinola DeMelo

We need to retain DeMelo.
Maybe also retain Dillon but that is optional. The left side is not the problem and we have enough depth to be able to lose Dillon.
The right side is already an issue and if we lose DeMelo we are in trouble next year.

I like your top 6. Snerg has to carry Pionk. DeMelo mentors Heinola.
1 more year and Pionk is out and Salmon is in.

 

[WolfHouse]

We need to retain DeMelo.
Maybe also retain Dillon but that is optional. The left side is not the problem and we have enough depth to be able to lose Dillon.
The right side is already an issue and if we lose DeMelo we are in trouble next year.

I like your top 6. Snerg has to carry Pionk. DeMelo mentors Heinola.
1 more year and Pionk is out and Salmon is in.

Hopefully salomondsson is more.samberg and less poolman in terms of saviors...

 

[trebendan]

We need to retain DeMelo.
Maybe also retain Dillon but that is optional. The left side is not the problem and we have enough depth to be able to lose Dillon.
The right side is already an issue and if we lose DeMelo we are in trouble next year.

I like your top 6. Snerg has to carry Pionk. DeMelo mentors Heinola.
1 more year and Pionk is out and Salmon is in.

If DeMelo won’t re-sign, I’m guessing the Jets don’t buy out Schmidt.

 

[Jet]

Nobody is interested in giving Capo a look next year? What else could he have done this year? 3rd leading scorer, led the D in scoring, and TRIGGER WARNING a +25 with the next closest player a +12. The next highest D was his partner at a +8.

I know plus minus etc etc etc, but when one player is heads and tails above the entire team and has been all year, that says a hell of a lot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hopefully salomondsson is more.samberg and less poolman in terms of saviors...

Did anyone ever claim Poolman was a saviour?

He was expected to be a 3rd pair RHD and he was. Maurice playing him on the 1st pair was another story. That said more about how thin we were on the right side than anything else, though some might say it said a lot about Maurice too.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If DeMelo won’t re-sign, I’m guessing the Jets don’t buy out Schmidt.

You're probably right, though I would move either Schmidt or Pionk regardless. Based on recent play it might be Pionk who goes first. Free up that cap space in order to pursue an upgrade on the right side. Also enable paying DeMelo.

 

[WolfHouse]

Nobody is interested in giving Capo a look next year? What else could he have done this year? 3rd leading scorer, led the D in scoring, and TRIGGER WARNING a +25 with the next closest player a +12. The next highest D was his partner at a +8.

I know plus minus etc etc etc, but when one player is heads and tails above the entire team and has been all year, that says a hell of a lot.

Time to put him on waivers

 

[WolfHouse]

Did anyone ever claim Poolman was a saviour?

He was expected to be a 3rd pair RHD and he was. Maurice playing him on the 1st pair was another story. That said more about how thin we were on the right side than anything else, though some might say it said a lot about Maurice too.

We were pretty stoked about poolman... I'm sure there's a thread archived somewhere

Didn't he get covid or something?

 

[Buffdog]

Nobody is interested in giving Capo a look next year? What else could he have done this year? 3rd leading scorer, led the D in scoring, and TRIGGER WARNING a +25 with the next closest player a +12. The next highest D was his partner at a +8.

I know plus minus etc etc etc, but when one player is heads and tails above the entire team and has been all year, that says a hell of a lot.

I was always surprisingly impressed with his play when he's been in the Jets lineup. I haven't watched him at all on the Moose though

If you want to appease the stats nerds, just say GF% instead of +/-. They seem to eat that shit up even though it's basically the same thing, although I actually prefer +/- because I value absolute differences over relative differences

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We were pretty stoked about poolman... I'm sure there's a thread archived somewhere

Didn't he get covid or something?

I was excited to have developed a RHS Dman with a little size. That doesn't mean I expected a saviour, just 1 step on the road to improvement.

He has had difficulty staying healthy. He has played 57, 39, 40, 3 and 0 games the last 5 seasons. He has spent all of this year on LTIR after playing just 3 games last year. IDK what his injury is but 3 games total over 2 seasons hints that he may be done.

 

[Buffdog]

I was excited to have developed a RHS Dman with a little size. That doesn't mean I expected a saviour, just 1 step on the road to improvement.

He has had difficulty staying healthy. He has played 57, 39, 40, 3 and 0 games the last 5 seasons. He has spent all of this year on LTIR after playing just 3 games last year. IDK what his injury is but 3 games total over 2 seasons hints that he may be done.

Concussion IIRC

 

[WolfHouse]

I was excited to have developed a RHS Dman with a little size. That doesn't mean I expected a saviour, just 1 step on the road to improvement.

He has had difficulty staying healthy. He has played 57, 39, 40, 3 and 0 games the last 5 seasons. He has spent all of this year on LTIR after playing just 3 games last year. IDK what his injury is but 3 games total over 2 seasons hints that he may be done.

I thought he'd be a solid second pair like we are expecting from salomondsson

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I thought he'd be a solid second pair like we are expecting from salomondsson

OK, you probably weren't alone. But there is a difference between hope and expectation. IIRC, I had higher hopes too.

I have higher hopes for Salmon. I think solid 2nd pair is the floor. The ceiling is higher.

 

[KingBogo]

Nobody is interested in giving Capo a look next year? What else could he have done this year? 3rd leading scorer, led the D in scoring, and TRIGGER WARNING a +25 with the next closest player a +12. The next highest D was his partner at a +8.

I know plus minus etc etc etc, but when one player is heads and tails above the entire team and has been all year, that says a hell of a lot.

Capo is in an interesting position for us. He was on a 1 way contract this season, so he got his full NHL salary, so that should keep some good will. He is still an RFA with a QO of $813,750 so both sides could still decide to reup another season. The guy was a little unlucky to not get at least a couple injury callups. I'd hate to lose him as I think he can still play a role with the organization.

 

[surixon]

I thought he'd be a solid second pair like we are expecting from salomondsson

Definitely a much higher opinion then me. I was very skeptical he'd make the NHL to begin with.

 

[10Ducky10]

Capo is in an interesting position for us. He was on a 1 way contract this season, so he got his full NHL salary, so that should keep some good will. He is still an RFA with a QO of $813,750 so both sides could still decide to reup another season. The guy was a little unlucky to not get at least a couple injury callups. I'd hate to lose him as I think he can still play a role with the organization.

He is our 6 LHD at best.

 

[KingBogo]

He is our 6 LHD at best.

And 9th best counting RHD. Also considering there are 3 pending UFAs and 1 RFA above I don’t think the organization plans to just throw him away.

 

[Buffdog]

Carried over from the PGT that's now closed...

Just to be clear... some people were obsessed about reuniting ESV based on their GF% and xGF% from a 160 minute sample size together

Some of the same people are saying that Logan Stanley has "fooled us with a few good games" yet his sample size this season is larger by over 100 minutes. His results look fine. Some people might have to just admit that he's developed into a more effective player than they though he would

 

[10Ducky10]

And 9th best counting RHD. Also considering there are 3 pending UFAs and 1 RFA above I don’t think the organization plans to just throw him away.

If he gets another contact from the Jets, it will be a two-way deal.

 

[KingBogo]

If he gets another contact from the Jets, it will be a two-way deal.

Maybe. But the Jets seemed fine paying him on a 1-way this. If it is a 2-way I see it as a very nice 2 way that is at least 1/2 NHL salary. Either way I think he is a type of player you want around for depth.

 

[Gm0ney]

Carried over from the PGT that's now closed...

Just to be clear... some people were obsessed about reuniting ESV based on their GF% and xGF% from a 160 minute sample size together

Some of the same people are saying that Logan Stanley has "fooled us with a few good games" yet his sample size this season is larger by over 100 minutes. His results look fine. Some people might have to just admit that he's developed into a more effective player than they though he would

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View attachment 848562

Thanks for posting images my grandmother would be able to read...

Regarding the small sample stuff: there's a much larger sample of Scheifele with and without Ehlers that suggests they should play together for make benefit glorious team of Jets. There's also a huge sample of Scheifele and Connor together that shows the opposite.

Also, the 3 defensemen on the list with similar deployment are Stanley, Schmidt and Samberg and Stanley's currently 3rd amongst them in xGF% and 2nd in GF% (but goals are more variable than a shot-based stat like Corsi or xG).

Stanley hasn't been a disaster in that 3rd pairing role, so that's at least a positive. When I was talking about sunk costs yesterday, you don't have to get zero return on your investment to make it a bad investment...spending all that the Jets have on Stanley including draft capital, 250+ pro games of development in the AHL and NHL, losing other defensemen on waivers to protect him...all for your 3rd best 6th defenseman? Eesh...that's throwing good money after bad.

 

[WolfHouse]

Carried over from the PGT that's now closed...

Just to be clear... some people were obsessed about reuniting ESV based on their GF% and xGF% from a 160 minute sample size together

Some of the same people are saying that Logan Stanley has "fooled us with a few good games" yet his sample size this season is larger by over 100 minutes. His results look fine. Some people might have to just admit that he's developed into a more effective player than they though he would

View attachment 848561


View attachment 848562

So our third pairing heading into the playoffs should be Chisholm and Miller haha...

 

[Jet]

If he gets another contact from the Jets, it will be a two-way deal.

No way that happens.

How do you do that to a guy who has been such a team player. He's being suppressed from the NHL (I think he is an everyday player). He worked hard all season and basically led the Moose and you are going to give him a 2 way contract?

If hes not in the orgs plans I think they will give him the opportunity to move on.