Confirmed with Link: Wings Have a 75 % Chance of Making the Playoffs!

[Henkka]

Ah, but what is the chance they score another PP goal on the road?

Interesting question. They got one at first 13 games. And there's only 11 road games left to score another one.

 

[RedMenace]

Man, that 25% is just LOADED with failure, isn't it?

 

[Brick Top]

Man, that 25% is just LOADED with failure, isn't it?

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works EVERY time.

 

[CloneHakanPlease*]

And a 0% chance to do any real damage in the playoffs.

Give me the at worst 14th pick over another first round debacle

 

[CorbeauNoir]

There's a decent chance they miss the playoffs (an injury to key player can happen any moment) that's at worst the 14th overall pick, highest pick since 1990 or something?

I'll take that, and that's a good pick for the wings, if they would fall another 1-3 spots that's even better. There's a Darnell Nurse or similar player around there, a player with abilities that isn't to be found in the system.

Also if you miss the playoffs you could still end up with 1st overall pick with (luck, a lot of it) IIRC they changed the drafting rules so every team that doesnt make the playoffs has a chance of getting the 1st

No team with a decent shot to make the playoffs, however fringe, is going to purposefully tank for a high draft pick. You're wasting mental synapses perpetuating this fantasy

 

[Flowah]

No team with a decent shot to make the playoffs, however fringe, is going to purposefully tank for a high draft pick. You're wasting mental synapses perpetuating this fantasy

He knows that the Wings won't and can't tank. He's just stating what he'd like to happen.

How can a team with Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Howard, possibly finish low enough to be considered tanking.

 

[PullHard]

Haha, it's a % number, of course it's not a guarantee. But it's also closer to playoffs. Less room for big swings.

Either way, I don't know how to take this news. If Holland makes moves at the TDL, and we bring up Tatar full time? I honestly think the team could do damage in the playoffs. If we sit on our hands? Then I'll say "why did we bother making the playoffs and ruining our chances at a great pick."

Yeah, a bit closer to playoffs. I guess I worded it wrong. 75% seems like a damn near sure thing from the outside looking in, but it would only take a bad week-10 days to dig yourself a hole that you wouldn't be able to climb out of.

 

[RedWingsNow*]

Detroit's chances of making the playoffs fell to 62.8 percent tonight

 

[RedMenace]

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works EVERY time.

I like you.

 

[Henkka]

Remaining schedule:

@ANA
@ANA
@PHO
@SAN
CHI
COL
-----------Trade deadline
@PHO
@COL
STL
SAN
@CHI
@NAS
@CGY
@VAN
PHX
LOS
NAS
@DAL

That's pretty tough schedule. We face 9 teams that are currently better than us and 9 teams that are currently worse than us. It pretty much will be a coinflip.

Here are "the most realistic standings you can get", that uses points percentage both home and on the road. There's also an estimation for final points for that current weighted percentage. If you are weak on the road and more road games left, it takes that in count. Like our current points percentage is .550, but because we have played more home games and been better at home, our adjusted value is lower (0.539).

*1. Chicago.... 0.854 ~82p (0.884H, 0.823A)
*2. Anaheim.... 0.831 ~80p (0.928H, 0.733A)
*3. Minnesota. 0.625 ~60p (0.750H, 0.500A)
.4. Los Angeles 0.613 ~59p (0.833H, 0.393A)
.5. St. Louis.... 0.587 ~56p (0.607H, 0.566A)
.6. Vancouver. 0.586 ~56p (0.594H, 0.577A)
.7. San Jose... 0.572 ~55p (0.769H, 0.375A)
.8. Detroit...... 0.539 ~52p (0.617H, 0.461A)
-------------------------------------
.9. Edmonton.. 0.504 ~48p (0.538H, 0.469A)
10. Nashville... 0.500 ~48p (0.667H, 0.333A)
11. Dallas...... 0.500 ~48p (0.500H, 0.500A)
12. Phoenix.... 0.489 ~47p (0.656H, 0.321A)
13. Calgary.... 0.467 ~45p (0.600H, 0.333A)
14. Columbus.. 0.465 ~45p (0.639H, 0.292A)
15. Colorado... 0.442 ~42p (0.633H, 0.250A)

Nashville and Edmonton could do some push for the playoffs. Edmonton has had injuries and a heavy schedule, and are now getting healthy and playing more at home. Same for Nashville. They have had even harder road schedule and sucked because of injured Hörnqvist (returns today) and because Josi and Weber had some growing pains together. Now they are doing well. I expect the Predators to rise in the standings, probably more than Edmonton. I don' know what the Blue Jackets could do, they have been rolling because of their great home schedule, but that positive effect could also transfer some good results also to those weak road games. If they can get success with that good home momentum also on the road, they could be playoff spot threat.

Same at East:

*1. Montreal.... 0.743 ~71p (0.700H, 0.786A)
*2. Pittsburgh.. 0.742 ~71p (0.733H, 0.750A)
*3. Winnipeg.... 0.563 ~54p (0.538H, 0.588A)
.4. Boston....... 0.737 ~71p (0.808H, 0.667A)
.5. Ottawa...... 0.645 ~62p (0.821H, 0.469A)
.6. Toronto..... 0.567 ~54p (0.533H, 0.600A)
.7. Carolina..... 0.550 ~53p (0.500H, 0.600A)
.8. NY Rangers 0.540 ~52p (0.656H, 0.423A)
------------------------------------
.9. New Jersey.. 0.527 ~51p (0.625H, 0.429A)
10. NY Islanders 0.514 ~49p (0.375H, 0,654A)
11. Philadelphia. 0.464 ~45p (0.679H, 0.250A)
12. Tampa Bay. 0.444 ~43p (0.531H, 0.357A)
13. Buffalo....... 0.437 ~42p (0.462H, 0.412A)
14. Washington 0.427 ~41p (0.533H, 0.321A)
15. Florida....... 0.364 ~35p (0.382H, 0.346A)