Post-Game Talk: WIN!! - San Jose @ Nashville: Game 4 - Highway to the Danger zone edition

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ILikeItILoveIt

Registered User
Apr 2, 2010
829
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Realize this is a huge game and to win it would put us back with a 50-50 chance for winning the series, but it's not a must-win.

There's always a tendency to look too far ahead when assessing what's possible. Think about the Duck series. We win 2 road games. History said we had an 86% chance of winning the series. Assessment after two games: The series is ours.

Then we drop 3 straight. Now down 3-2, our historical chances were below 25%. Assessment after 5 games: The series is over, we lose.

Won 2, lost 3, won 2 = win series. Think about it. The Ducks won 3 straight games, and lost the series.

So lets say we lose tonight and go down 3-1. We'll have to do what the Ducks did just last week. Probable? No. Doable? Yes.

Another perspective. Say we lose and go down 3-1. We go to San Jose and win. Now it's 3-2. Now go back and say we win tonight but lose Game 5 in San Jose. We're 3-2. So what does it matter how we got there.

Winning tonight is preferable but winning 4 games is the ultimate goal, no matter when you win them. We can just as easily win Games 4, 5, and 6, and win the series 4-2. Or we could win tonight, and then lose-win-win and win 4-3.

Every game outcome creates a new reality and set of probabilities. Just like we weren't out of it at 2-0, we won't be out of it at 3-1, nor will 2-2 assure us of anything.

Win 4 games in any order and don't get down until we lose the 4th game.

I'll never understand why people get so down prematurely. We have the entire off-season to be depressed if/when we're eliminated. Why begin handicapping it during the series based on how many more wins we need versus how many loses we can sustain without being eliminated.

10 years ago, the Red Sox were down 3-0 to the dreaded Yankees. History gave them close to zero chances. Then they went out and did what they had done multiple times during that season: they won 4 games in a row.

I'm as pumped as anyone over the possibility of knotting the series 2-2, but if necessary, I will be equally pumped for crushing the Sharks spirit by winning-out following a loss tonight, just like we did to the Ducks.
 

Carolinas Identity*

I'm a bad troll...
Jun 18, 2011
31,250
1,299
Calgary, AB
Holy smokes this GDT is amazing; well done CI. Goose's caption is great; also love the Zero Wing shooped images. Early Japanese - English game translations were hilarious.

Just win; play tough, fast, and shoot high. Jones is solid and three of our four goals last game were snipes to the high glove side (Neal, Weber, FF). Doesn't have to be perfect, but keeping Jones up a bit longer opens up some other scoring angles. Go Perds!

Yeah, and the cool thing about Zero Wing, other than fostering one of the most popular memes in internet history, is if you have ever actually played it, the game is amazing and has one of the best sound tracks in 16 bit history.
 

Montross

Askarov.
Oct 4, 2013
1,457
260
Realize this is a huge game and to win it would put us back with a 50-50 chance for winning the series, but it's not a must-win.

Yes it is. This team is not going to win three in a row, two being on their home ice. It is going to be tough enough to get one win on the road - which they are going to have to do even if they win tonight.

Must-win game no doubt. Go get 'em Preds.
 

Drake744

#manrocket
Feb 12, 2010
12,645
1,729
Nashville
One thing that worries me is the law of hockey averages. Ideally, to win a series you'd like to steal a game you probably shouldn't win and conversely you'd like to capitalize on all of your games you play well enough to win. Let's be honest, we played great in Game 3 but we also played really well in Game 2 and probably deserved to win. The law of averages would say that at some point we're due for a bit of a down game since we just came off two very well played games. Problem is, SJ more or less stole Game 2 and I feel like if we have a game we don't deserve to win, we won't.
 

TitansVolsPreds615

Registered User
Feb 19, 2015
2,964
807
One thing that worries me is the law of hockey averages. Ideally, to win a series you'd like to steal a game you probably shouldn't win and conversely you'd like to capitalize on all of your games you play well enough to win. Let's be honest, we played great in Game 3 but we also played really well in Game 2 and probably deserved to win. The law of averages would say that at some point we're due for a bit of a down game since we just came off two very well played games. Problem is, SJ more or less stole Game 2 and I feel like if we have a game we don't deserve to win, we won't.

The Penguins, Capitals and NHL playoffs as a whole laugh at this "law of averages".
 

nomorekids

The original, baby
Feb 28, 2003
33,375
107
Nashville, TN
www.twitter.com
Realize this is a huge game and to win it would put us back with a 50-50 chance for winning the series, but it's not a must-win.

There's always a tendency to look too far ahead when assessing what's possible. Think about the Duck series. We win 2 road games. History said we had an 86% chance of winning the series. Assessment after two games: The series is ours.

Then we drop 3 straight. Now down 3-2, our historical chances were below 25%. Assessment after 5 games: The series is over, we lose.

Won 2, lost 3, won 2 = win series. Think about it. The Ducks won 3 straight games, and lost the series.

So lets say we lose tonight and go down 3-1. We'll have to do what the Ducks did just last week. Probable? No. Doable? Yes.

Another perspective. Say we lose and go down 3-1. We go to San Jose and win. Now it's 3-2. Now go back and say we win tonight but lose Game 5 in San Jose. We're 3-2. So what does it matter how we got there.

Winning tonight is preferable but winning 4 games is the ultimate goal, no matter when you win them. We can just as easily win Games 4, 5, and 6, and win the series 4-2. Or we could win tonight, and then lose-win-win and win 4-3.

Every game outcome creates a new reality and set of probabilities. Just like we weren't out of it at 2-0, we won't be out of it at 3-1, nor will 2-2 assure us of anything.

Win 4 games in any order and don't get down until we lose the 4th game.

I'll never understand why people get so down prematurely. We have the entire off-season to be depressed if/when we're eliminated. Why begin handicapping it during the series based on how many more wins we need versus how many loses we can sustain without being eliminated.

10 years ago, the Red Sox were down 3-0 to the dreaded Yankees. History gave them close to zero chances. Then they went out and did what they had done multiple times during that season: they won 4 games in a row.

I'm as pumped as anyone over the possibility of knotting the series 2-2, but if necessary, I will be equally pumped for crushing the Sharks spirit by winning-out following a loss tonight, just like we did to the Ducks.

Of course anything is possible. Statistically it almost never happens, though.
 

nine_inch_fang

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Oct 8, 2004
5,999
4,454
Nashville
One thing that worries me is the law of hockey averages. Ideally, to win a series you'd like to steal a game you probably shouldn't win and conversely you'd like to capitalize on all of your games you play well enough to win. Let's be honest, we played great in Game 3 but we also played really well in Game 2 and probably deserved to win. The law of averages would say that at some point we're due for a bit of a down game since we just came off two very well played games. Problem is, SJ more or less stole Game 2 and I feel like if we have a game we don't deserve to win, we won't.
Wait.....wouldn't the law of averages state that the Preds will win one they don't deserve if they alread lost one they shouldn't have?
 

Drake744

#manrocket
Feb 12, 2010
12,645
1,729
Nashville
Wait.....wouldn't the law of averages state that the Preds will win one they don't deserve if they alread lost one they shouldn't have?
Law of averages was the wrong wording. I'm worried that the averages don't play out and if we get outplayed, they'll take advantage of it and we won't get the break they did in game 2.
 

Carolinas Identity*

I'm a bad troll...
Jun 18, 2011
31,250
1,299
Calgary, AB
Addendum: The little orange cards some of the pilots are holding came out smaller than I had hoped. If you were curious, they all say, under a Predators logo: "Keep calm, there is no 3 on 3 in the Playoffs"
 

sparkle twin

Registered User
Jul 31, 2002
9,193
3,406
Smashville, TN
Just get your **** together, Preds, and WIN. THIS. GAME!


Play angry, make it miserable for the cali kids. Get some damn traffic in front of the net. The sharks have no idea what they are in for tonight.


LET'S. GO. PREDS.








(Also, I love this theme, 1 of my top 3 favorite movies.)
 

Nordic*

Registered User
Oct 12, 2006
20,476
6
Tellus
If you had to bet 1000$ on one team to win tonight, who would you realistically pick - disregarding your wishes/loyalty?
 

torero

Registered User
Oct 5, 2007
4,618
379
West Sussex
www.scb.ch
Realize this is a huge game and to win it would put us back with a 50-50 chance for winning the series, but it's not a must-win.

There's always a tendency to look too far ahead when assessing what's possible. Think about the Duck series. We win 2 road games. History said we had an 86% chance of winning the series. Assessment after two games: The series is ours.

Then we drop 3 straight. Now down 3-2, our historical chances were below 25%. Assessment after 5 games: The series is over, we lose.

Won 2, lost 3, won 2 = win series. Think about it. The Ducks won 3 straight games, and lost the series.

So lets say we lose tonight and go down 3-1. We'll have to do what the Ducks did just last week. Probable? No. Doable? Yes.

Another perspective. Say we lose and go down 3-1. We go to San Jose and win. Now it's 3-2. Now go back and say we win tonight but lose Game 5 in San Jose. We're 3-2. So what does it matter how we got there.

Winning tonight is preferable but winning 4 games is the ultimate goal, no matter when you win them. We can just as easily win Games 4, 5, and 6, and win the series 4-2. Or we could win tonight, and then lose-win-win and win 4-3.

Every game outcome creates a new reality and set of probabilities. Just like we weren't out of it at 2-0, we won't be out of it at 3-1, nor will 2-2 assure us of anything.

Win 4 games in any order and don't get down until we lose the 4th game.

I'll never understand why people get so down prematurely. We have the entire off-season to be depressed if/when we're eliminated. Why begin handicapping it during the series based on how many more wins we need versus how many loses we can sustain without being eliminated.

10 years ago, the Red Sox were down 3-0 to the dreaded Yankees. History gave them close to zero chances. Then they went out and did what they had done multiple times during that season: they won 4 games in a row.

I'm as pumped as anyone over the possibility of knotting the series 2-2, but if necessary, I will be equally pumped for crushing the Sharks spirit by winning-out following a loss tonight, just like we did to the Ducks.

I agree and also don't agree with you.

Statisticaly you are right ... the goal is to win 4 games. wheter you win them in serie at the beginning or at the end doesn't change the outcome ... correct ?
False ... it does and i am convinced that, against SJS, we lost game 1 and maybe even 2 because SJ was more rested than we were.
Game 1 was striking ... so better to win in 6 ... you have 4 days to rest. And no rust accumulated.

Therefore it is not a must win ... but a go and F***ing win this game.
 

torero

Registered User
Oct 5, 2007
4,618
379
West Sussex
www.scb.ch
Of course anything is possible. Statistically it almost never happens, though.

That is the funny thing about stats ... it is a trailing indicator ... therefore it is a reflection of the past. Now who become the champion is bound to make the future ... and so to make it.

Only 1 team becomes champion.

Whatever go Guys go.

5-2 i believe. the last an EN by Josi.
 
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