Will the canucks make the playoffs?

[Pyrophorus]

They won't go 40-something and 0, for the rest of the year.

 

[tucker3434]

Sorry, I'm not quite sure what you mean by this?

Meaning if you go back further the Nucks were 3-7 in their prior 10 with 2 of the wins coming against struggling Ottawa and Montreal teams. Demko's play was much more varied with several nights in the .700 and .800's. They've had some statistical improvement in the last 4 games compared with the prior 25 games, but they're still roughly middle of the pack. The largest improvement has come by PDO where they went from bottom 1/3 in the first 25 to top 1/3 in the last 4. That probably won't last. If they play the rest of the season the way they've played these last 4 games, that might have gotten in the playoffs if they hadn't waited until game 25 to do it. At this point they need to be among the league's elite just for a shot at 8th place. Unless Demko is going to win the Vezina, the numbers don't support it.

 

[Pip]

Nope

 

[North Cole]

I still don't think so, too many teams in front of them IMO. It's less about how far back and more about how many teams. Jays ran into the same problem, went on a massive winning streak but the more teams in front, the higher chance that at least one other team will also run hot. Then you're effectively dead in the water...

 

[Lawzy]

Meaning if you go back further the Nucks were 3-7 in their prior 10 with 2 of the wins coming against struggling Ottawa and Montreal teams. Demko's play was much more varied with several nights in the .700 and .800's. They've had some statistical improvement in the last 4 games compared with the prior 25 games, but they're still roughly middle of the pack. The largest improvement has come by PDO where they went from bottom 1/3 in the first 25 to top 1/3 in the last 4. That probably won't last. If they play the rest of the season the way they've played these last 4 games, that might have gotten in the playoffs if they hadn't waited until game 25 to do it. At this point they need to be among the league's elite just for a shot at 8th place. Unless Demko is going to win the Vezina, the numbers don't support it.

I agree with almost all your points. They are playing better but it's not enough to warrant suggesting they can steamroll the league to make up the giant hole they dug themselves into prior to Green's firing. My only real hesitation here is whether or not I consider this peak form. On the one hand they're likely playing above their heads because of the new coach; on the other hand they likely haven't even implemented a full-scale system.

For the record, I would avoid using Demko's numbers to analyze anything. He's been excellent the entire season and has been repeatedly hung out to dry. The difference between current Demko and Green Demko is mostly a competent coaching staff and defensive system (with a bit of luck). Obviously, he won't continue posting 0.962 for the rest of the season but he equally won't be posting sub 0.900.

 

[BCNate]

I think they are in too big a whole. Next two weeks will be telling, lots of 4 point games coming up.

I'm really not concerned whether they get in or not. They are playing very well under BB, pretty much every player has been better over the past 4 games. That is a real good sign going forward. If they can get near the mix where they play meaningful games down the stretch, that would be huge given the start we had. This is pretty good team, has obvious flaws, but is not too far off.

With a full season competent coaching and NHL level systems, I expect the Canucks to be in the mix next year for sure.

 

[bossram]

I still don't think so, too many teams in front of them IMO. It's less about how far back and more about how many teams. Jays ran into the same problem, went on a massive winning streak but the more teams in front, the higher chance that at least one other team will also run hot. Then you're effectively dead in the water...

Yep. Canucks effectively have no chance. Even if Bruce keeps them playing at something like a 105+ point pace, they'd need every other team ahead of them to kinda falter. It's just not likely.

 

[summer tooth]

No, but that doesn't mean they have nothing to celebrate. They've made some improvements throughout the year and there's always next year as well.

 

[DrDangles]

Yes, Demko is going to carry them to the promised land

 

[bossram]

Are these the best of times? Boudreau took over the Canucks 8 days ago. I doubt they even have a fully integrated system at the moment.

With the exception of the 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche, I absolutely agree that getting outshot isn't a formula for success. It's far more nuanced than this though. Prior to hiring Boudreau the Canucks actually had a positive shot differential. The problem wasn't shots, it was quality of shots. All I'm trying to say is they are much more of a threat to score under Boudreau (so far) so using a shot differential over 4 games isn't the greatest argument. They've also been much better defensively. Having a competent coach matters.

That's certainly a factor. That being said, I'd argue having some sort of system is a much bigger factor. They played like chickens with their heads cut off prior to Boudreau. It's night and day.

I don't think they'll make the playoffs but they're certainly a much bigger threat now.

I fully expect the Canucks to be a true-talent better team under Boudreau. But does anyone believe they're really a 110 point team now? That's the kind of pace they'll need to play at to have a shot at the playoffs. And that's assuming no other bubble team gets hot either, which would effectively eliminate any chance the Canucks have.

Bruce has come in and brought some levity to the team, made it fun for them to play hockey, and fun for fans to watch and cheer again. That's his job for the season.

 

[bossram]

I don't think the Canucks were in as bad of shape as St. Louis when they turned around.

I think there is a decent enough chance they could finish ahead of the Jets and Stars. Now in the Pacific, San Jose and L.A seem reachable. Are the Oilers reachable? That's a tough one.

If Boudreau get the Canucks to the playoffs, he's in the Jack Adams discussion that's for sure.

I think going 3 strong at centre was a good move. The defense is still a little iffy to me, but none of the teams the Canucks are chasing are standouts defensively either.

A lot of people cite the Blues example, but they're kinda the exception that proves the rule.

They also had elite 5v5 shot/chance metrics even when they were in the basement, but were getting PDO'd to death.

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.