News Article: Will Randy Carlyle Change?

[Kyle Doobas*]

http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2014/09/15/randy-carlyle/

Ironically, the Leafs were noticeably better at limiting shots against under the “free wheeling†Ron Wilson system. Most values were not significantly different from the league average. Noticeable exceptions include the slot area and a startling amount of shots against from directly in front of the net.

Compare that to Carlyle, purportedly a strong “defensive coach†who saw a relatively small turnover in personnel in his first full season in charge. It’s true the Leafs under Carlyle last season “limited†shots to the outside to the tune of nearly 125% of the league average. But, as Gus pointed out, the holes and passing lanes in the middle of the ice exposed by this system were relentlessly exploited by the opposition. The end result? Statistically significant elevated shot rates against in virtually all areas of the ice. This includes an even higher rate of shots from in front of the net than the “run and gun†Wilson Leafs.

Click to read more...

 

[hockeygeek]

Management has taken a lot of the blame for not giving Carlyle the personnel last year. They added a lot of players in the offseason. I think for Randy's sake they better be in a good spot at Xmas.

 

[TootooTrain]

The biggest issue last year was constantly leaving the high man wide open. Something Randy himself has said needs some correction. Honestly have no idea why he thought that system was working at all last year due to the constant cycling, but atleast he recognizes it after the fact. There's so much pressure on Randy to excel, I don't think he has a choice whether he makes changes to his gameplan.

 

[PuckMagi]

i doubt he'll change.

he doesn't seem like too bright of a guy to be honest. there were just so many things over the last couple years that were obviously not working and yet he seemed oblivious.

benching gardiner... playing holzer and kostka with phaneuf.... playing franson last year even though he cost us tons of goals.... dressing goons every game... having his "shutdown" units where he would constantly play mcclment. he benched macarthur in the playoffs and then brought him in on the 4th line and he scores 2 goals in a game.

 

[Leafidelity]

I have a feeling Randy's compromise was playing his old system while rolling four lines.

 

[Shm00se]

Unless Randy makes changes to his gameplan, he will be gone by Christmas... I would consider that my present from Santa.

With that being said, I'm a little conflicted. I want Randy gone, but I also want the Leafs to do well. I feel like both happening is unlikely.

Ahhh to be a Leaf fan..

 

[DD03]

i doubt he'll change.

he doesn't seem like too bright of a guy to be honest. there were just so many things over the last couple years that were obviously not working and yet he seemed oblivious.

benching gardiner... playing holzer and kostka with phaneuf.... playing franson last year even though he cost us tons of goals.... dressing goons every game... having his "shutdown" units where he would constantly play mcclment. he benched macarthur in the playoffs and then brought him in on the 4th line and he scores 2 goals in a game.

Carlyle has a Norris trophy to his name. And a nice ring as a coach. (with a good team, but the point still stands.) What you got?

Benching Gardiner is to send a message to a young talent. PLaying Holzer and Kostka with Phaneuf was because we couldn't find anyone to play with Phaneuf and we lacked right? (opposite of Phaneuf), defensemen, and we didn't want to break up our best pairing of Franson - Gardiner for an injury.

Franson was playing injured last year, and had a pretty bad relationship with Carlyle from what I've heard.

The goons were to set a fore-check since no one else on the team would throw a hit in the offensive zone. As long as they had a fore-check going they weren't that much of a nuisance and no one was really ready to take their spot. Not only that but why waste a prospect playing 4th line minutes? They need to be playing significant minutes in order for it to be worth the call up. He played the tough guys less and less from what I remember as the year went on and the goon really phased out.

His shutdown units was because that's what he had to work with in terms of personel. McClement is known as a shut down guy throughout the league and his defensive woes were something to behold last year, but the whole team sucked. I'd still play McClement on my PK or in a shut down role.

Carlyle can have a lot of the blame, but our team depth was pretty bad last year, and we had a pretty lackluster effort from just about everyone except for a select few..

 

[JakeGardiner51]

http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2014/09/15/randy-carlyle/

Carlyle is not what's wrong with the Leafs. It's the princesses he has to work with..

 

[Durrr]

Carlyle is not what's wrong with the Leafs. It's the princesses he has to work with..

Oh lord... I know our team had some serious holes but cmon..

Randy was a major problem last season, it's pretty much not even an argument. His system was a major failure, he misused players, he was outcoached on a game-by-game basis and on top of all this he constantly said he had no idea how to fix what was wrong.

I'd hope he'd be gone by christmas but for some reason the leafs always start off hot, so I'm guessing he sticks around until it's too late or we narrowly make the playoffs.

 

[hockeygeek]

Oh lord... I know our team had some serious holes but cmon..

Randy was a major problem last season, it's pretty much not even an argument. His system was a major failure, he misused players, he was outcoached on a game-by-game basis and on top of all this he constantly said he had no idea how to fix what was wrong.

I'd hope he'd be gone by christmas but for some reason the leafs always start off hot, so I'm guessing he sticks around until it's too late or we narrowly make the playoffs.

If you believe that Carlyle was such a bad coach...and management passed over Trotz in the offseason. Then by default management is just as bad or worse and they'll be around longer than Carlyle so firing the coach won't fix anything. I'd like to believe they have a clue and they extended Carlyle for a reason....

 

[Durrr]

If you believe that Carlyle was such a bad coach...and management passed over Trotz in the offseason. Then by default management is just as bad or worse and they'll be around longer than Carlyle so firing the coach won't fix anything. I'd like to believe they have a clue and they extended Carlyle for a reason....

Nahh, Nonis is on thin ice just like Carlyle. When/if he goes it will be Shanny who is fully in charge of getting his own guys in here. It's not just that I believe RC was a bad coach, there were just few instances where he did anything good as a coach last season. His inability to change any part of his system (when it's clearly outdated and being exploited) is just one of many reasons why the game has out grown him.

 

[X66]

Lol @ the goons to set a forecheck. The goons can't play consistently at an AHL level, check their minutes on the Marlies, so why should they be playing with the big club?

It's been proven that Carlyle teams have been in the bottom 10 for advanced stats over the last 5 years with two different teams.

It's been proven that he has not iced the best roster for 2 years in a row.

It's been proven that his minute allocation is horrendous, especially when compared to elite teams in the NHL.

Here is some food for thought...

The Leafs this year finished with the worst shots for/shots allowed differential in franchise history(8 shots). You have to go back a long, long time to remember the last time the Leafs finished with a shot differential that was the worst in franchise history...

Actually, you don't, because it was LAST SEASON(6 shots).

The Leafs this season finished 5th worst all time in shots differential, now I ask you, is this the 5th worst roster ever assembled? They allowed more shots in a SINGLE SEASON THAN ANY OTHER TEAM EVER ASSEMBLED, now I ask you, is this the worst team ever assembled?

This is a system problem, no doubt.

Lets revert back to the Wilson Collapse, a collapse I said was more to blame on the players(mainly goaltending) than it was the coach.

Wilson before being fired had the Leafs averaging 27.64 shots AGAINST. In that 11 game span that had Wilson fired, the team still only had an average of 30 shots a game allowed.

The Goaltenders under Ron Wilson that season faced an average amount of shots of:

Gustavsson: 27.9
Reimer: 28.3
Scrivens: 27.3

Compared to what the Leafs goalies have faced the last 2 years, that's a remarkable change...

In fact, in the SAME YEAR WILSON WAS FIRED, the following 18 games where Carlyle took over, the team averaged a mere 25 shots a game and allowed a whopping 31 shots allowed, so a 6 shot differential...identical to last season and an embarrassing 2 shot improvement over this season.

This is why I believe it is the coach THIS time around more than the players. His 'system' is either outdated or needs to be relied on by 2 hall of fame defenceman, take your pick.

There is simply no excuse for Randy Carlyle, although I'm sure many will come.

 

[Pyrophorus]

I will take a 3rd round appearance for Babcock not to be here next year.

 

[Shm00se]

Lol @ the goons to set a forecheck. The goons can't play consistently at an AHL level, check their minutes on the Marlies, so why should they be playing with the big club?

It's been proven that Carlyle teams have been in the bottom 10 for advanced stats over the last 5 years with two different teams.

It's been proven that he has not iced the best roster for 2 years in a row.

It's been proven that his minute allocation is horrendous, especially when compared to elite teams in the NHL.

Here is some food for thought...

The Leafs this year finished with the worst shots for/shots allowed differential in franchise history(8 shots). You have to go back a long, long time to remember the last time the Leafs finished with a shot differential that was the worst in franchise history...

Actually, you don't, because it was LAST SEASON(6 shots).

The Leafs this season finished 5th worst all time in shots differential, now I ask you, is this the 5th worst roster ever assembled? They allowed more shots in a SINGLE SEASON THAN ANY OTHER TEAM EVER ASSEMBLED, now I ask you, is this the worst team ever assembled?

This is a system problem, no doubt.

Lets revert back to the Wilson Collapse, a collapse I said was more to blame on the players(mainly goaltending) than it was the coach.

Wilson before being fired had the Leafs averaging 27.64 shots AGAINST. In that 11 game span that had Wilson fired, the team still only had an average of 30 shots a game allowed.

The Goaltenders under Ron Wilson that season faced an average amount of shots of:

Gustavsson: 27.9
Reimer: 28.3
Scrivens: 27.3

Compared to what the Leafs goalies have faced the last 2 years, that's a remarkable change...

In fact, in the SAME YEAR WILSON WAS FIRED, the following 18 games where Carlyle took over, the team averaged a mere 25 shots a game and allowed a whopping 31 shots allowed, so a 6 shot differential...identical to last season and an embarrassing 2 shot improvement over this season.

This is why I believe it is the coach THIS time around more than the players. His 'system' is either outdated or needs to be relied on by 2 hall of fame defenceman, take your pick.

There is simply no excuse for Randy Carlyle, although I'm sure many will come.

I could not have said it better myself! This should be so painfully obvious to people. The system we play is the biggest problem this team has. Is it the only problem? Of course not, but it's certainly not helping.

This roster is better than the one Wilson had. Imagine if Bernier had been in net for Wilson's last year? Or a non-injured Reimer for that matter. Now I'm no Wilson fan, but there's a chance he would still be here if he had the goaltending we have now.

It's revisionist history, so there's no guarantees, but tangible evidence would definitely support this theory. At least more than the notion that Randy is a good coach.

 

[Durrr]

I could not have said it better myself! This should be so painfully obvious to people. The system we play is the biggest problem this team has. Is it the only problem? Of course not, but it's certainly not helping.

This roster is better than the one Wilson had. Imagine if Bernier had been in net for Wilson's last year? Or a non-injured Reimer for that matter. Now I'm no Wilson fan, but there's a chance he would still be here if he had the goaltending we have now.

It's revisionist history, so there's no guarantees, but tangible evidence would definitely support this theory. At least more than the notion that Randy is a good coach.

Randy is a massive problem, and the fact that the "hockey minds" above him couldn't see this blew my mind this off season.

 

[Bullseye]

2 different head coaches - 4 different assistants - same result - could it be the players?

I would say that Carlyle didn't get stupid after winning the cup. He was hired to turn a sinking ship around - he made the playoffs but this is also one of the youngest teams in the league - they need a lot of leadership and reminding - could it be that some very key players are possibly not COACHABLE?

This year you have 2 more new assistant coaches - that's 6 assistants in 3 1/2 years - if they don't improve -- is it the coaches fault?

 

[X66]

Wilson never got the goaltending that Carlyle had, he received below mediocre goaltending every year here with the exception to that 30 game span in Reimer's rookie year. If Wilson received the Carlyle goaltending his last couple of years, the teams would have easily made the playoffs a few of those seasons IMO.

Carlyle has been blessed with elite goaltending the last 2 years, the irony would be funny if it wasn't so embarrassing.

 

[Mess]

Carlyle has been give a bunch of new players when Management deemed his previous crew was not good enough.

Hopefully he can integrate and assimilate these new options into a cohesive successful unit that produces better results in the standings.

I'm dubious to believe that this last ditch attempt will have the desired results because its the players that remained that were responsible for the past struggles.

However now its up to Carlyle to adapt and do the best he can with the personnel provided or he will be unemployed if another season like the last year occurs under his direction.

 

[Stephen]

They don't really need him to change. If he's still a bonehead, the Leafs will have a high pick and the chance to sign up Babcock.

 

[Durrr]

2 different head coaches - 4 different assistants - same result - could it be the players?

I would say that Carlyle didn't get stupid after winning the cup. He was hired to turn a sinking ship around - he made the playoffs but this is also one of the youngest teams in the league - they need a lot of leadership and reminding - could it be that some very key players are possibly not COACHABLE?

This year you have 2 more new assistant coaches - that's 6 assistants in 3 1/2 years - if they don't improve -- is it the coaches fault?

No one is saying the team doesn't have flaws, but a coach coach can still make use with what he has (see babcock this last season, Mclean the season before).

This current team is miles ahead of the team that Wilson had when he was fired. It had top 10 goal tending for 80% of the season, as well as a more rounded core. Randy was the one that constantly misused and overused certain players due to his ridiculous stubbornness. Jay Mclement was getting more icetime then every forward but Kessel on some nights (and these were always the games we were down by a goal or two), Orr and Mclarren were used for months after it was all but clear they had no role on the team.

I could go on and on because honestly, there wasn't much that Carlyle did well last season, and his micromanagement of players is starting to get ridiculous. Listen to any leafs "experts" via podcasts or the radio, not one of them will have good things to say about Carlyle.

 

[Durrr]

Wilson never got the goaltending that Carlyle had, he received below mediocre goaltending every year here with the exception to that 30 game span in Reimer's rookie year. If Wilson received the Carlyle goaltending his last couple of years, the teams would have easily made the playoffs a few of those seasons IMO.

Carlyle has been blessed with elite goaltending the last 2 years, the irony would be funny if it wasn't so embarrassing.

It's so true, Carlyle has been plain awful as a coach here. Pretty clear that this guy cant coach a team that isn't molded to his exact unique style of coaching (aka an allstar team). His zone exit/entry system last year was laughable, then you have to hear him going on about not knowing how to fix anything.

 

[PuckMagi]

Don't get me wrong ... I thin Nonis is a big problem too. He doesn't seem too bright either. The Clarkson signing was brutal. The cap management with Komisarek vs. Liles/Gleason was beyond stupid.

Did Nonis learn anything? Nope. He signed Komorov for almost 3 million for 4 years. I like Komorov a lot... but he's a 4th liner who should have been paid 1.5 million... 2 max. Another massive over-payment. If he turns out to be much better than he was 2 years ago, then maybe the contract is fair... but on a risk/reward basis, it's another bad contract for sure.

I just think that Nonis and Carlyle are idiots. When you look at some of their decisions, they just lack basic logic and a basic understanding of the game today. I'm just hoping they let Dubas make all their decisions for them from now on. That would be the smartest thing they could do right now. Let Dubas be the defacto GM and coach and then let Carlyle and Nonis take all the credit.

 

[Budsfan]

The question should be asked is Carlyle is just holding a spot for Babcock.

Carlyle's system is the exact opposite from Wilson's system and when you take a freewheeling Run and Gun system to a Strick Positional Defensive system, players will find it hard to adapt but I am not a fan of Carlyle's system anyway, it is too predictable and lacks flow.

Carlyle has problems dealing with players and They just tuned him out and that may have been the reason for the season ending collapse, Spott and Horachek are player coaches and that should help.

Maybe Horachek will institute a better system, he advocates puck posession forwards back checking and puck pursuit.

 

[Shm00se]

2 different head coaches - 4 different assistants - same result - could it be the players?

I would say that Carlyle didn't get stupid after winning the cup. He was hired to turn a sinking ship around - he made the playoffs but this is also one of the youngest teams in the league - they need a lot of leadership and reminding - could it be that some very key players are possibly not COACHABLE?

This year you have 2 more new assistant coaches - that's 6 assistants in 3 1/2 years - if they don't improve -- is it the coaches fault?

That's all fine and dandy, but it hasn't been the same roster that whole time. I'm not saying the players are without fault, but I strongly believe this exact team would perform much better with a different coach.

As to Randy getting stupid after winning a cup, he might have been stupid to begin with! (I honestly don't think Randy is stupid at all. Just responding to hyperbole with hyperbole)

He doesn't have Chris Pronger or Scott Niedermayer anymore. I could have coached a team with those two successfully! He had a stacked lineup that performed progressively poorer as they became less stacked. Still pretty stacked if you ask me though.

Look at how quickly that same team changed under Bruce Boudreau.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Randy is the worst coach to ever grace the earth, but A LOT of evidence supports the idea that he isn't going to coach a team out of problems. He's more likely to coach them into them. He is not the right coach for a young, developing team.

Btw, I'm not trying to rag on you at all. I'm just so tired of Randy it pains me to hear him even remotely defended. I'm still recovering from the news of his contract extension lol

 

[Bullseye]

Ask any veteran player where the buck stops. There have been some notable turn-arounds through coaching changes but generally great coaches have great players - most players and organizations know that but they always want to run the coach outa town. Short memory guys - this team and organization has been bad for a LONG time - Randy is INTO his 3rd full year with this team.

Quennville, Julien, Sutter - would anyone of these guys be in the Cup hunt with the Leafs roster instead of theirs? Trade Carlyle for any f these guys and I think you get similar results. It's the players guys.

The Rangers are the only example I will use of a good team being held back by a knucklehead coach - but I don't put Carlyle into that category.