User9992
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- Feb 27, 2016
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Will Ovi break Gretzky's goal record? 3 seasons & 73 goals left!
That's 73 goals in 3 remaining seasons of Ovechkin's contract.
Voted yes but it'll be tough.
Essentially - he'll be age 38 this year. There are only 8 seasons in hockey history of a player 38+ scoring 30 goals or more in a season. At that age, decline can happen quick, suddenly, and it's also hard to predict.
Also - despite being quite healthy his whole career - Ovechkin has now missed an average of 8+ games for 3 straight years. That's not a huge amount, but if it continues/gets worst it could hurt him. It's harder for your body to heal at age 38+ than it was earlier.
Washington was also a very poor team last year, and there's a good chance they do worst this year. Sometimes scoring goals on a bad team can be easier, but often it's a lot harder.
I can legitimately see him roaring back and scoring 50 next year - but it's also possible he slows down and barely even passes 30, if that.
So....yes, I think he'll do it, but it's not a guarantee.
He only has to average 25 goals a season. Considering that Washington’s only goal at the moment seems to be getting Ovi the record, along with the increase in scoring over the past couple years, he seems like a lock to break the record barring serious injury. Even a dramatic decline wouldn’t stop him from getting the record, he could easily rack up 15-20 goals a season just as a pp specialist past age 40.
Fair post and I took the "Yes but it will be tough" (to watch) option.Voted yes but it'll be tough.
Essentially - he'll be age 38 this year. There are only 8 seasons in hockey history of a player 38+ scoring 30 goals or more in a season. At that age, decline can happen quick, suddenly, and it's also hard to predict.
Also - despite being quite healthy his whole career - Ovechkin has now missed an average of 8+ games for 3 straight years. That's not a huge amount, but if it continues/gets worst it could hurt him. It's harder for your body to heal at age 38+ than it was earlier.
Washington was also a very poor team last year, and there's a good chance they do worst this year. Sometimes scoring goals on a bad team can be easier, but often it's a lot harder.
I can legitimately see him roaring back and scoring 50 next year - but it's also possible he slows down and barely even passes 30, if that.
So....yes, I think he'll do it, but it's not a guarantee.
I don’t think he’ll have to be signing professional tryout contractsHe will break it. Even if he keeps signing PTOs to get it done. It is his main goal now.
Not sure how you take a 47 goal pace and turn it into easily 50+ if his father didn’t pass. He was pacing under 30 goals early part of the year and he had a hot streak as goal scorers typically do…score in bunches….but what you are suggesting is that had his father not passed he would have easily scored 8+ goals in the 4 games he missed due the passingEvery year I hear HF experts saying he is going to slow down because no 33/34/35/36/37 year old has ever scored 40 goals, etc. Then every year OV does it. Maybe it's time to accept that the normal aging curve clearly doesn't apply to this guy. He just scored 42 in 73 games despite his father passing away in the middle of the season. If that didn't happen he easily would have scored 50+ as his pace understandably dropped when it happened. League GPG is going up every year, league is getting less physical, etc. He will easily score 40+ this year and will fly by Gretzky in 24/25. He will easily finish with 900+ and cement himself as the GOAT goal scorer by every possible metric (most goals, most adjusted goals, only 900+ goal scorer, most rockets, most 50/40/30 goal seasons, most PPGs, etc).