Will Ovi break Gretzky's goal record? 3 seasons & 73 goals left!

[User9992]

Will Ovi break Gretzky's goal record? 3 seasons & 73 goals left!​

That's 73 goals in 3 remaining seasons of Ovechkin's contract.

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[AssaultPK]

He will break it this year in game 69

 

[Midnight Judges]

Anything can happen.

I wouldn't be shocked if he scored 50 this season.

I also wouldn't be shocked if he missed half the season with an injury.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Yes he will play until he beats that record

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

he does it... but in 3 seasons from now when he's 40

 

[Toby91ca]

The choices seem very odd:

- No, no chance? - how can 10% pick this? I'm fine with thinking he may not get there, but suggesting there is "no chance" doesn't even seem like an option.

- Yes, but tough - this isn't too wonky, I guess it's not a bad choice, some might ask why it's tough because he's only 73 goals away, but logically looks like he's need to play until 40 to get there....possible to get there by 39 though.....that's not easy, so I guess tough.

- Yes, easily - see above, not sure how it's easy unless he's within 10-20 goals already, simply playing to 40 is something very, very few players have done.....I think he will, but it's not easy.

- More, 900+ - this is the odd one to me....how can someone suggest he'll easily score 895 goals, but not think he'll score 5 more to get to 900?

 

[bobholly39]

Voted yes but it'll be tough.

Essentially - he'll be age 38 this year. There are only 8 seasons in hockey history of a player 38+ scoring 30 goals or more in a season. At that age, decline can happen quick, suddenly, and it's also hard to predict.

Also - despite being quite healthy his whole career - Ovechkin has now missed an average of 8+ games for 3 straight years. That's not a huge amount, but if it continues/gets worst it could hurt him. It's harder for your body to heal at age 38+ than it was earlier.

Washington was also a very poor team last year, and there's a good chance they do worst this year. Sometimes scoring goals on a bad team can be easier, but often it's a lot harder.

I can legitimately see him roaring back and scoring 50 next year - but it's also possible he slows down and barely even passes 30, if that.

So....yes, I think he'll do it, but it's not a guarantee.

 

[eXile3]

Yeah it appears he’ll do it in year 2. I get players declining with age but some elite plays can defy it. He just scored 42.

The league’s higher scoring now and despite what the Caps say it’s pretty obvious their goal is to get him the record at all costs.

Baring any injury I would be surprised if it took him 3 years.

 

[I am not exposed]

He will break it. Even if he keeps signing PTOs to get it done. It is his main goal now.

 

[Connor McConnor]

They will still have a good PP and he’s a lock for 15-20 goals there. Add in 5 EN goals and he just needs 20 5v5 goals to get to 45-50 again this year !

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Voted yes but it'll be tough.

Essentially - he'll be age 38 this year. There are only 8 seasons in hockey history of a player 38+ scoring 30 goals or more in a season. At that age, decline can happen quick, suddenly, and it's also hard to predict.

Also - despite being quite healthy his whole career - Ovechkin has now missed an average of 8+ games for 3 straight years. That's not a huge amount, but if it continues/gets worst it could hurt him. It's harder for your body to heal at age 38+ than it was earlier.

Washington was also a very poor team last year, and there's a good chance they do worst this year. Sometimes scoring goals on a bad team can be easier, but often it's a lot harder.

I can legitimately see him roaring back and scoring 50 next year - but it's also possible he slows down and barely even passes 30, if that.

So....yes, I think he'll do it, but it's not a guarantee.

Missing games doesn't mean he was injured. In the 3 seasons you mentioned, OV missed 25 games. 6 of those were for covid protocol and 4 were for the death of his father. A couple were "load management" before the playoffs. So through actual injury he missed like 12 games over 3 seasons, 7 of which were in the 20/21 season which was obviously a freak covid condensed season with no training camp, etc. In other words, the missed games are meaningless.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Every year I hear HF experts saying he is going to slow down because no 33/34/35/36/37 year old has ever scored 40 goals, etc. Then every year OV does it. Maybe it's time to accept that the normal aging curve clearly doesn't apply to this guy. He just scored 42 in 73 games despite his father passing away in the middle of the season. If that didn't happen he easily would have scored 50+ as his pace understandably dropped when it happened. League GPG is going up every year, league is getting less physical, etc. He will easily score 40+ this year and will fly by Gretzky in 24/25. He will easily finish with 900+ and cement himself as the GOAT goal scorer by every possible metric (most goals, most adjusted goals, only 900+ goal scorer, most rockets, most 50/40/30 goal seasons, most PPGs, etc).

 

[I am Bettman]

He only has to average 25 goals a season. Considering that Washington’s only goal at the moment seems to be getting Ovi the record, along with the increase in scoring over the past couple years, he seems like a lock to break the record barring serious injury. Even a dramatic decline wouldn’t stop him from getting the record, he could easily rack up 15-20 goals a season just as a pp specialist past age 40.

 

[BraveCanadian]

He only has to average 25 goals a season. Considering that Washington’s only goal at the moment seems to be getting Ovi the record, along with the increase in scoring over the past couple years, he seems like a lock to break the record barring serious injury. Even a dramatic decline wouldn’t stop him from getting the record, he could easily rack up 15-20 goals a season just as a pp specialist past age 40.

Pretty much this.. Washington has been in full on feed Ovi for the record mode for a while already and if they continue he’ll get there.

 

[Peat]

Ovi will break that record or die trying and I don't think he's gonna die anytime soon.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

As long as he doesn't massively fall off he should do it no problem, perhaps even by the end of year 2.

 

[wetcoast]

Voted yes but it'll be tough.

Essentially - he'll be age 38 this year. There are only 8 seasons in hockey history of a player 38+ scoring 30 goals or more in a season. At that age, decline can happen quick, suddenly, and it's also hard to predict.

Also - despite being quite healthy his whole career - Ovechkin has now missed an average of 8+ games for 3 straight years. That's not a huge amount, but if it continues/gets worst it could hurt him. It's harder for your body to heal at age 38+ than it was earlier.

Washington was also a very poor team last year, and there's a good chance they do worst this year. Sometimes scoring goals on a bad team can be easier, but often it's a lot harder.

I can legitimately see him roaring back and scoring 50 next year - but it's also possible he slows down and barely even passes 30, if that.

So....yes, I think he'll do it, but it's not a guarantee.

Fair post and I took the "Yes but it will be tough" (to watch) option.

Other than scoring goals there is a lot to cringe at given his usage when he plays.

Even if he didn't break the record for any reason, even if it was from a complete drop off in play, he will be considered by me as the great goal scorer of all time.

 

[Toby91ca]

He will break it. Even if he keeps signing PTOs to get it done. It is his main goal now.

I don’t think he’ll have to be signing professional tryout contracts

 

[Toby91ca]

Every year I hear HF experts saying he is going to slow down because no 33/34/35/36/37 year old has ever scored 40 goals, etc. Then every year OV does it. Maybe it's time to accept that the normal aging curve clearly doesn't apply to this guy. He just scored 42 in 73 games despite his father passing away in the middle of the season. If that didn't happen he easily would have scored 50+ as his pace understandably dropped when it happened. League GPG is going up every year, league is getting less physical, etc. He will easily score 40+ this year and will fly by Gretzky in 24/25. He will easily finish with 900+ and cement himself as the GOAT goal scorer by every possible metric (most goals, most adjusted goals, only 900+ goal scorer, most rockets, most 50/40/30 goal seasons, most PPGs, etc).

Not sure how you take a 47 goal pace and turn it into easily 50+ if his father didn’t pass. He was pacing under 30 goals early part of the year and he had a hot streak as goal scorers typically do…score in bunches….but what you are suggesting is that had his father not passed he would have easily scored 8+ goals in the 4 games he missed due the passing