Will OEL rebound?

[KG]

Simple question, what is the % chance, in your view, that OEL will play well enough to justify his contract?

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[Sm00chy]

If he is relieved of the “C” and the pressure that comes with that he may rebound slightly.

Not counting on it however.

 

[Grimes]

This upcoming season, or rebound for the remainder of his contract? I'd say 50/50 he will be worth 8m this coming season. I'd say 0% he can keep that up for more than 2 seasons.

Weber sure has had a resurgence the past two seasons or so, that's the only hope I have.

 

[rt]

On the Coyotes? 25%
On another team? 50%

 

[SniperHF]

Depends on the rebound.
I don't think he'll ever be the pre-25 year old all purpose top 10 Dman in the league he was again. So that's a 0%.

I think he could get into a better form though, but that's also not all that likely. He's had 5 years to do it already.


D-men age weird though, especially elite ones. 3 years ago It wouldn't have surprised me to see a late career surge back to near Norris form. Now I think that's less likely.

I could see him getting to a place where you'd consider him an upper end #2. I don't think he gives a crap enough about his defensive game to ever see him be a true all situations #1 again.

His decline is a bitch because it's both physical and mental. He's never had the same mobility post knee injuries, and he constantly re-aggravates them. Maybe if he had to sit for a whole season due to a lockout. TBH I really don't buy the Tocchet hurting his game theory, OEL's decline predates that by like a year and a half.

 

[SniperHF]

This is neither here nor there, but my favorite OEL narrative from non-Coyotes fans lately is how he was never good defensively. Which is funny because it was freaking annoying from 2012 to 2014 or so when his scoring wouldn't seem to advance. His offensive game didn't really even fully break out till late 2014, he was just on a shit team so it was harder to notice aside from the goal scoring.

Wish we had the forum archives, there were at least a couple threads on "when's OEL's offense gonna break out" from those days.

 

[Matias Maccete]

IMO he never rebounds to 20 goal elite defensively OEL. He's got some serious city miles on him from years of cheap shots. I think he can still be way better than he was under Tocchet, back up to 75% to 80% prime OEL.

 

[XX]

I don't think there's any chance he's worth his $30m+ over the next three seasons to this team.

OEL needs to be the 5th or 6th most important guy on a team where he can just do his thing without any pressure. I think he might have a good five years in him as a Jay Bouwmeester type if his health holds or improves. It just won't be on a rebuilding team when you take away the C.

They need to reset the room. It starts with him.

 

[Schemp]

IMO he never rebounds to 20 goal elite defensively OEL. He's got some serious city miles on him from years of cheap shots. I think he can still be way better than he was under Tocchet, back up to 75% to 80% prime OEL.

I agree. He has lost that quick wrister. I don't know if he'll get that quick snap back
Without Tocchet, just give him Soderstrom to pair with and tutor and Lyunbushkin with a free agent, I mean, if you can't get Adam Larsson in free agency.

 

[PainForShane]

Depends on if we're able to get additional offense. On most teams, Connor Garland is a complementary piece who plays 2nd line minutes and gets 30 goals. On our team, Connor Garland is a 1st line player because no one else even comes close to scoring 30 goals because no one goes to / thrives in the tough areas. Except for Bunting but that is another conversation.

OEL scores 15-20 goals / 50 points-ish on a team with actual weapons and a decent power play. On our team as is?

...

No comment. Without additional weapons (any weapons?) not sure you can justify the price tag / cap hit

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

If you only focus on whether he "justifies" his contract, you'll never be happy as long as he stays on the Coyotes.

OEL's peak season in 2015-16 is actually the outlier and not the norm. If you look at 3 seasons before that peak and the 5 seasons since, all 8 of them are consistent 0.5 scoring clips. This is what he is and expecting him to always deliver the same as his best ever 55pt season is an unrealistic demand. His sheer consistency of being able to play at a high level year in and year out is impressive and unmatched by almost no other Coyote defensemen in history - probably only Numminen. To excel beyond his normal standards, just like any other player he needs a better supporting cast and defensive partner, not a rookie that he has to carry. That's why he's more likely to excel if traded to another team than if he stays here and is saddled with unrealistic expectations and poor support. So yes it's pretty likely he will once again have a career season somewhere where he hits 50+ points again much like Numminen did for a second time at age 29.

 

[SniperHF]

OEL's peak season in 2015-16 is actually the outlier and not the norm.

Well the peak is almost always going to be an outlier, but I disagree that something approaching that shouldn't be expected.

For one , I think he was actually better in 14-15 that team was just such a trashheap the numbers won't show it outright in raw production. You can't rack up assists passing to Marc Arcobello and Ty McGinn.

I consider the two season's before his high production year as at least as good in all around play with 14-15 actually being his peak. Also scoring at half a point per in 2013 to 2017 is more valuable than scoring half a point per in 2021, where scoring is easier. Those earlier years were just as tough to score in as the DPE and Ollie was peaking then, the numbers have to be considered in that light.

His defense slipped substantially after that 15-16 season, along with the injuries.


My problem with Ollie really isn't the points, it's everything else. he could be a .35 to .45 per game d-man and I wouldn't care if he was the all around player he was in 2014. That's the kinda player this team needs. He's approaching outright liability on the ice, he gets dunked on all the time and usually in crushing fashion in the third period. His transition skills are diminishing as well because while he's still usually a good passer, the transition game is evolving more toward speed and carrying the puck again than nailing a killer stretch pass like he and Yandle used to do routinely to the Whitney line back in the day.

 

[XX]

His sheer consistency of being able to play at a high level year in and year out is impressive and unmatched

I don't know how you've watched the last three years and say something like this with a straight face. He's consistent at being inconsistent in his own zone. Bush has been the better player in his own zone the last two years, so this suggestion that somehow OEL is suffering due to a bad partner is crazy talk (his decline predates Bush and the captaincy). We're talking about a player that had the worst on ice SV% of any regular. This despite facing weaker competition than in years past and playing less overall.

Of particular note is how many high danger goals he concedes nowadays.

He was not good. You can't have your expensive totemic captain playing that way. He has been so bad now over such a span that, in combination with his contract, it will be difficult to move him even if he waives.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

Well the peak is almost always going to be an outlier, but I disagree that something approaching that shouldn't be expected.

My problem with Ollie really isn't the points, it's everything else. he could be a .35 to .45 per game d-man and I wouldn't care if he was the all around player he was in 2014. That's the kinda player this team needs. He's approaching outright liability on the ice, he gets dunked on all the time and usually in crushing fashion in the third period. His transition skills are diminishing as well because while he's still usually a good passer, the transition game is evolving more toward speed and carrying the puck again than nailing a killer stretch pass like he and Yandle used to do routinely to the Whitney line back in the day.

I think what you'll get is what 8 out of 9 years he's produced. But the talk is always about "when will he get back to his peak performance"? That isnt realistic and he isnt going to be the same defenseman that he was 6-7 years ago. Great players constantly reinvent themselves to fit in with the needs of the team. Youngsters turn into veterans. Chychrun is now the one bombing forwards and always looking for the attack. OEL is now the experienced player trying to cover the (many) gaps in the team so that the high energy guys like Chychrun and Garland have a platform.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

I don't know how you've watched the last three years and say something like this with a straight face. He's consistent at being inconsistent in his own zone. Bush has been the better player in his own zone the last two years, so this suggestion that somehow OEL is suffering due to a bad partner is crazy talk (his decline predates Bush and the captaincy).

I can flip that right back on you and ask how you can watch OEL and Lyubushkin as a pairing and not realise that OEL is carrying a heavy weight. I do not consider Lyubushkin better at any facet of the game. OEL constantly watches Bush knowing the next error is not far away and that he'll have to cover for it. That causes a detriment to his own game because he is then out of position trying to do the work of two defensemen. He can never even trust Bush with the puck. That's what is behind the decline and negative stats so beloved to you. But you need to look beyond the stats and look at the causes. I like Bush as a #6 defenseman who tries to get physical unlike most. But there is absolutely no way you can claim yourself with a straight face that he is top 4 defenseman material. That just does not pass the eye test.

Ask yourself - has OEL suddenly at the ages of 26-28 lost the ability to play hockey? Is that really a better explanation? Not in my book.

 

[Jamieh]

I can flip that right back on you and ask how you can watch OEL and Lyubushkin as a pairing and not realise that OEL is carrying a heavy weight. I do not consider Lyubushkin better at any facet of the game. OEL constantly watches Bush knowing the next error is not far away and that he'll have to cover for it. That causes a detriment to his own game because he is then out of position trying to do the work of two defensemen. He can never even trust Bush with the puck. That's what is behind the decline and negative stats so beloved to you. But you need to look beyond the stats and look at the causes. I like Bush as a #6 defenseman who tries to get physical unlike most. But there is absolutely no way you can claim yourself with a straight face that he is top 4 defenseman material. That just does not pass the eye test.

Ask yourself - has OEL suddenly at the ages of 26-28 lost the ability to play hockey? Is that really a better explanation? Not in my book.

I believe the age range in your last paragraph lines up pretty well with when most NHL D men's performance peaks so yeah its very possible OEL will continue to decline. Of course the opposite is also possible but less likely.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Ask yourself - has OEL suddenly at the ages of 26-28 lost the ability to play hockey? Is that really a better explanation? Not in my book.

I've never questioned OEL's ability. Just his motivation and drive.

 

[rt]

I've never questioned OEL's ability. Just his motivation and drive.

He definitely seems to have lost his spark. Kid was a passion player. Really a treat to watch. Now? He’s muted. Gray. Dull.

 

[SpaceCoyote]

Given some of the terrible handling of certain players we've witnessed and feedback from scouts around the league about our previous coaching administration, I think there is a good chance OEL will heavily benefit from a newly implemented play style.

“Maybe it’s the style of play that’s holding [OEL] back. If I have one criticism of Rick Tocchet, to me he has come in with one way to coach. Good coaches are able to take a player and fit them in. Instead of figuring out how to fit a player into the system, it’s, ‘You don’t fit my style of play. You’re out.’ That’s a fault. Good coaches find a way to make good players fit.” - anonymous scout

 

[Matias Maccete]

Given some of the terrible handling of certain players we've witnessed and feedback from scouts around the league about our previous coaching administration, I think there is a good chance OEL will heavily benefit from a newly implemented play style.

Someone in the media said Tocchet has a....... fault!? Good thing he's anonymous otherwise he'd be crucified while being burned at the stake (cross stake?).

 

[SniperHF]

One more note on OELs scoring, to help show the increased league scoring effects on his numbers. If we take his career in chunks starting at his prime:
2013 - 2016: 2nd in goals, 11th in points. (Prime)
2017 - 2019: 7th in goals, 24th in points. (Decline)
2020 - 2021: 43rd in goals, 42nd in points. (fell of a cliff)

I think what you'll get is what 8 out of 9 years he's produced. But the talk is always about "when will he get back to his peak performance"? That isnt realistic and he isnt going to be the same defenseman that he was 6-7 years ago. Great players constantly reinvent themselves to fit in with the needs of the team. Youngsters turn into veterans. Chychrun is now the one bombing forwards and always looking for the attack. OEL is now the experienced player trying to cover the (many) gaps in the team so that the high energy guys like Chychrun and Garland have a platform.

But he's not doing the thing aging elite defensemen usually do, get more steady. He was more steady as a 22 year old. That's just bizarre.
I have a hard time seeing how he can reinvent himself when his wrist/hands are worn down so his shot, one of his key skills that normally wouldn't dissipate much with just aging, is close to gone as an advantage.
His speed and mobility are greatly hampered after various knee injuries.

OEL has gone from playing shutdown pairing for Dave Tippet, to solid all purpose dman, to franchise #1 D, to offensive/PP specialist, to 2nd pairing quality offensive D. He's not even logging #1 minutes anymore.
I just don't see where he has to go, short of actually shaping up his mental game and re-learning how to play lock down defense. It's been devolution for several seasons running and I can't point to any single aspect of his game he's improved in that time.

 

[SpaceCoyote]

Someone in the media said Tocchet has a....... fault!? Good thing he's anonymous otherwise he'd be crucified while being burned at the stake (cross stake?).

It was a Craig Morgan article, probably just didn't want someone to be able to trace him back to the body.

 

[Schemp]

... to get the passion back: That is the objective! I don't know if he can find it in AZ. Bringing in Adam Larsson might snap him out of his funk, signing Landeskog would help, it definitely would rejuvenate this Coyote fan. I can see OEL handing him the "C" and take that burden. As the probability of getting those 2 dwindle, I see the best solution to Oliver is to trade him.

 

[cobra427]

I don't know how you've watched the last three years and say something like this with a straight face. He's consistent at being inconsistent in his own zone. Bush has been the better player in his own zone the last two years, so this suggestion that somehow OEL is suffering due to a bad partner is crazy talk (his decline predates Bush and the captaincy). We're talking about a player that had the worst on ice SV% of any regular. This despite facing weaker competition than in years past and playing less overall.

Of particular note is how many high danger goals he concedes nowadays.

He was not good. You can't have your expensive totemic captain playing that way. He has been so bad now over such a span that, in combination with his contract, it will be difficult to move him even if he waives.

I stoped reading at Bush is the better player in his own zone, but ok then....

 

[Jakey53]

Simple question, what is the % chance, in your view, that OEL will play well enough to justify his contract?

OEL will not play up to his value, but either do a lot of other players in the NHL. OEL is currently our second best Dman, and after him it gets pretty thin. IF we trade him we better get equal value back or I keep him. If we trade him for parts, as some have mentioned, BA should be fired on the spot.