Will Luongo still be a top 10 goalie this year?

[Luongofan558*]

will luongo still be a good goalie this season? He is coming off a hip surgery.

Click to read more...

 

[Bleedred]

Yes

I think he has one more really good season left in him, maybe even two.

He might able to play past that in a backup/1b role, but I don't think he will.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

will luongo still be a good goalie this season? He is coming off a hip surgery.

Will he be a good goalie? yes. Hip surgery is NBD for goalies.
But he wasn't even top 10 last year. 16th in Adj.FSV% among goalies with 2250 minutes played

 

[mrv52]

Will he be a good goalie? yes. Hip surgery is NBD for goalies.
But he wasn't even top 10 last year. 16th in Adj.FSV% among goalies with 2250 minutes played

this was my first thought looking at thread title.
cats will be better this year so he may get back there.

 

[Bleedred]

Will he be a good goalie? yes. Hip surgery is NBD for goalies.
But he wasn't even top 10 last year. 16th in Adj.FSV% among goalies with 2250 minutes played

Give me a break.

Every year there a bunch of nobodies and bums that have a better season than Henrik Lundqvist, doesn't mean any of them are better than Lundqvist. As they usually do not sustain that type of season every year or even ever again.

I use Lundqvist as an example, because he's been the most consistent goaltender of the last decade. I definitely think Luongo is up there too.

I don't think there's 10 goaltenders in the league better than Luongo. Even if Thomas Greiss or Neuvirth or some other pretenders have a better year than him at any given time.

 

[ThirdManIn]

If every year a bunch of nobodies and bums are better than Lundqvist, how is he sustaining great seasons? I think you exaggerated that one a bit much.

For the question at hand, I doubt it. I don't think he'll be terrible, but I just think there are at least ten goalies who are likely to play better. The question is about the season itself, so even if guys like "Greiss or Neuvirth or some other pretenders" having a better year than him doesn't mean they are better goalies overall, it still means they are ahead of him for the year.

 

[CanadienShark]

If every year a bunch of nobodies and bums are better than Lundqvist, how is he sustaining great seasons? I think you exaggerated that one a bit much.

For the question at hand, I doubt it. I don't think he'll be terrible, but I just think there are at least ten goalies who are likely to play better. The question is about the season itself, so even if guys like "Greiss or Neuvirth or some other pretenders" having a better year than him doesn't mean they are better goalies overall, it still means they are ahead of him for the year.

He means that there's an anomaly every year. He means that Lundqvist is consistently one of the best goalies, whereas some of these others just have an outlier year.

And yes, I think Luongo will be a top 10 goalie this year.

 

[Bleedred]

If every year a bunch of nobodies and bums are better than Lundqvist, how is he sustaining great seasons? I think you exaggerated that one a bit much.

I think you may have misunderstood me.

Every year there are several goaltenders better than guys like Lundqvist and Luongo. Many of them are bums, or usually average guys having a randomly good year.

But when it comes down to year to year, these guys are not better goaltenders than Lundqvist or Luongo. That's why they are top 10 goaltenders and Greiss and Neuvirth are not even close.

He means that there's an anomaly every year. He means that Lundqvist is consistently one of the best goalies, whereas some of these others just have an outlier year.

And yes, I think Luongo will be a top 10 goalie this year.

Exactly my point.

Yeah, I think there will probably be 10 guys with a better save percentage this year than Luongo. Only some of those names are likely to be flukes and guys that normally aren't that good. And every year, a guy like Montoya or Johnson, Neuvirth, Greiss, Enroth, etc, will have a .920-ish year. They just usually don't sustain those numbers consistently from year to year.

That recent lockout season was full of freak anomalies. Like Carey Price being bad and Ray Emery being amazing. We know that's not really the case.

 

[M2Beezy]

Luuuu will be great again. Hes still got many years left and isnt really showing any signs of slowing down out of a starter role

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This a joke? Of course he will

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Give me a break.

Every year there a bunch of nobodies and bums that have a better season than Henrik Lundqvist, doesn't mean any of them are better than Lundqvist. As they usually do not sustain that type of season every year or even ever again.

Pick a bigger sample then.

Luongo has not had an adj.FSV% in the top ten over any sample ending with last season. Not last five years, not last three years. His adj.FSV% over the last 9 year sample is fourteenth.

Lundqvist has. Price has. Schnedier has. Quick has. Holtby has. Varlamov has.

Luongo is still a good goalie. He's an NHL starter, probably better suited to a tandem. And he used to be elite. In fact between 2008 and 2012 his adj.FSV% was sixth best which is fantastic over such a big sample. But the moment you add the next four years to that sample it falls to fourteenth.

Over the last four year sample his adj.FSV% is 28th.

He has fallen off from 6th to 28th - and like with Pekka Rinne before him, people are just slow to recognize it. It doesn't hurt that he's played behind a team that can defend in a manner that inflates his raw save percentage.

 

[DL44]

Pick a bigger sample then.

Luongo has not had an adj.FSV% in the top ten over any sample ending with last season. Not last five years, not last three years. His adj.FSV% over the last 9 year sample is fourteenth.

Lundqvist has. Price has. Schnedier has. Quick has. Holtby has. Varlamov has.

Talbot has. Elliot has. Mason has. Anderson has. Halak has.


So how good is this stat?

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Talbot has. Elliot has. Mason has. Anderson has. Halak has.

You are correct about Elliott and Halak.

Last five seasons, 170+ GP:

Player|GP|Adj.FSv%
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST|361|1.43
CORY.SCHNEIDER|240|1.16
BRIAN.ELLIOTT|214|0.93
JAROSLAV.HALAK|218|0.9
JONATHAN.QUICK|364|0.86
CAREY.PRICE|269|0.75
BRADEN.HOLTBY|276|0.75
MIKE.SMITH|273|0.57
KARI.LEHTONEN|285|0.53
BEN.BISHOP|254|0.46
SEMYON.VARLAMOV|272|0.46
TUUKKA.RASK|285|0.41
CRAIG.ANDERSON|256|0.4
ONDREJ.PAVELEC|256|0.39
ROBERTO.LUONGO |265|0.37
COREY.CRAWFORD|336|0.37
CAM.WARD|218|0.35
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY|317|0.34
JONAS.HILLER|247|0.31
DEVAN.DUBNYK|260|0.3
RYAN.MILLER|265|0.2
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY|220|0.18
JONATHAN.BERNIER|183|0.15
JIMMY.HOWARD|265|0.13
ANTTI.NIEMI|311|0.05
STEVE.MASON|240|-0.12
JAMES.REIMER|186|-0.14
PEKKA.RINNE|300|-0.25

More recently yes you are also correct about Talbot.

Last three seasons, 110+ GP:

Player|GP|Adj.FSv%
CAREY.PRICE|161|1.29
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST|224|1.17
CAM.TALBOT|115|1.02
CORY.SCHNEIDER|172|0.98
BRIAN.ELLIOTT|138|0.87
MARTIN.JONES|125|0.84
JAROSLAV.HALAK|154|0.84
BRADEN.HOLTBY|212|0.73
JONATHAN.QUICK|220|0.73
SEMYON.VARLAMOV|184|0.63
FREDERIK.ANDERSEN|153|0.62
ONDREJ.PAVELEC|144|0.55
COREY.CRAWFORD|220|0.51
BEN.BISHOP|222|0.5
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY|206|0.49
STEVE.MASON|174|0.4
EDDIE.LACK|120|0.36
ROBERTO.LUONGO |185|0.36
KARI.LEHTONEN|190|0.34
JONAS.HILLER|141|0.19
RYAN.MILLER|164|0.18
CAM.WARD|133|0.13
CRAIG.ANDERSON|152|0.11
JONATHAN.BERNIER|152|0.11
MIKE.SMITH|156|0.09
TUUKKA.RASK|204|0.09
KARRI.RAMO|118|-0.01
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY|152|-0.03
DEVAN.DUBNYK|175|-0.07
ANTTI.NIEMI|184|-0.1
JAMES.REIMER|112|-0.15
JIMMY.HOWARD|147|-0.29
BEN.SCRIVENS|112|-0.4
PEKKA.RINNE|174|-0.44

So how good is this stat?

...You're gonna need better logic than "I disagree with the results therefore the information must be no good".

Maybe you should re-evaluate your assessment of the results. That "maybe Talbot, Elliott, and Halak have been very good goalies over reasonably large samples of games played but have not been recognized for their save making, and by the time they actually do get recognized they will probably already be on the decline"

 

[tony d]

If he's not top 10 he'll be close.

 

[SEALBound]

Really a tough question answer. With goalies, any goalie can be better than the other on a given night. I think there's a the top tier goalies and then a slew of 2nd tier goalies that are all in the money.

Price
Schneider
Holtby

would be my top 3.

Then there's a group consisting of:

Quick
Bishop
Lundqvist
Rask
Crawford
Fleury
Murray perhaps
Luongo
etc

Where any of them could be anywhere on that list. I think the better statement is "I believe Luongo is capable of being a top 10 goalie this year".

 

[Catmando]

He has fallen off from 6th to 28th - and like with Pekka Rinne before him, people are just slow to recognize it. It doesn't hurt that he's played behind a team that can defend in a manner that inflates his raw save percentage.

Are you kidding? Do you ever even watch panther games? Sorry I hate saying that, but if you are comparing him to Rinne you really don't have a clue about Lu.

Lu was dominant up and till the all-star which it was already proven he was playing hurt yet still put up solid numbers. Plus the whole excuse his defense is making him look good is BS too, all you got to do is look at the season he got traded back to the panthers where he had little to no defense, but turned a bottom-feeder into a competitive team for the remainder of the season and has continued to keep it up.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Are you kidding? Do you ever even watch panther games? Sorry I hate saying that, but if you are comparing him to Rinne you really don't have a clue about Lu.

Lu was dominant up and till the all-star which it was already proven he was playing hurt yet still put up solid numbers. Plus the whole excuse his defense is making him look good is BS too, all you got to do is look at the season he got traded back to the panthers where he had little to no defense, but turned a bottom-feeder into a competitive team for the remainder of the season and has continued to keep it up.

Luongo is not at Rinne levels of bad. He is a good NHL goaltender with a positive impact overall for his team. But he's not the elite player he used to be.

 

[Gentle Man]

According to NHL 17, he is not top ten.

So clearly a top ten goalie still.

 

[Boud]

Talbot has. Elliot has. Mason has. Anderson has. Halak has.


So how good is this stat?

Actually these are the most underrated goaltenders in the NHL. Talbot has a small sample size so I'll give you that, but Anderson and Mason have been putting upngreat numbers in front of bad teams(especially defensively) over the span of the past 5 seasons. Elliott has always been a good goalie since in St-Louis. Often winning a cup separates what people consider a top goalie vs a good goalie but in reality it takes more than just a goalie to win a cup.

Guys like Lundquvist, Quick, Rask have all won cups and Bishop and Holtby have been playing in front of some of the best teams in the NHL. Price is the outlier here... He's a step above the rest IMO playing in front of a poor team turning them into a contender basically. Craig Anderson has some unreal playoff stats too...

I'm not here to say that these guys are better than Luongo, but they are definitely very good and underrated players.. Not just some guys you can brush off. How good would Halak be if he was Bishops size? Probably one of the best goalies in the NHL.

 

[Ainec]

nope

I'm not sure what to make of Florida's chances in the post season with him in net. Could be that Greiss was just channelling Hasek

 

[deckercky]

...You're gonna need better logic than "I disagree with the results therefore the information must be no good".

I think the person whipping out an obscure stat needs to justify itself when it considers Smith and Lehtonen top 10 goalies over an extended period (as well as Pavelec as a top 1/2 of the league goalie).

 

[JuniorNelson]

Luongo play serves his ego. He can't allow himself to slip. Mediocrity will overtake him, like everybody, though. A hip surgery might be the excuse he is looking for? Who knows with a goalie? They are all nuts.

 

[Hisch13r]

I don't see why not

 

[Sens Rule]

Luongo play serves his ego. He can't allow himself to slip. Mediocrity will overtake him, like everybody, though. A hip surgery might be the excuse he is looking for? Who knows with a goalie? They are all nuts.

I sort of agree and not...

Luongo was the starter on a team that was very young and while talented did not have tremendous depth... And they won their division.

Luongo was a pretty darn good goalie last year. Some thought he was top 5 in the league. Others top 10. Others using advanced stats 15th.

It does not fully take into account his presence, his confidence. His mojo. Even his ego.... But that is also about his personality.

Teams play different for different goalies. I have seen
It so many times for over 2 decades. On my team
And other teams.

Teams can play in front of their goalie... Based on how much they believe in their goalie. While they play a system? Or overcompensate and do to much because they don't trust the goalie?

Stats are important. But how good the team thinks the goalie is too. Quick has rarely been the best goalie statistically. The Kings believe in him to a man. Making him a better goalie. And the Kings a better team.

Luongo is a smart, confident, charismatic old vet and a leader. The Panthers looked to him last year as a young team finally having success and believed in him. Trusted him. And believed he was a great part of their success. Was he a top ten goalie last year? I think probably. The Panthers thought he was, which is huge.

I think Luongo has a comparable season to last year, this year and is a very good starting goalie. Top ten? Maybe. But it matters what his team thinks more then what I think or other teams fans think. If you believe in your goalie you can take some risks, trust the system on defence. It means so much. That is why a proven veteran star goalie can mean so very much. Even past his peak.

 

[moog35]

Top 10 in the regular season maybe but once the playoffs roll around he will suck like usual (if Florida makes it)